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RJA

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  1. RJA
    Thanks for a thoughtful article, Nick. I agree with your comments, though I would add a sixth in Julien, who I think has earned a careful look in Spring Training, especially if he does well in the AFL. He is everything they hoped Martin would be--and on base machine with some pop in his bat. I wish they would have given him a chance in St. Paul this year. Of the five you mentioned, I think Rodriguez is the guy who really excites me. Assuming a full injury recovery, I think he will move quickly and arrive sometime in 2024. He is special. Next year will be a big year for the FO pitching pipeline. If Varland and SWR both arrive and have success, some of the criticism of their efforts will abate. If not, we may be at the point of saying they have failed miserably. Let's hope for the best.
  2. RJA
    My guess is that the FO was planning to contend this year if things broke their way, but were really looking to next year when they thought Winder/Canterino/Balazovic would be ready, Maeda would be back, and the young guys like Kirilloff, Lewis, Larnach and Miranda would have experience and settle into established roles. They figured to piece a bullpen together for the year, and hope Jax, Duran, Alcala, Stashak, etc. would get some experience and come back strong in 23. Then, when Correa fell in their lap, everyone's expectations, and theirs, changed. It is like they were caught between shifts in hockey, half in on this year and half out. When they performed well early, and the division looked weak, they tried to add at the deadline only to screw that up with an injured pitcher (Mahle) and a pitcher who returned to old ways (Lopez) providing no help. Then, of course, all the injuries. They still are not in bad shape for next year with a rotation of Gray, Mahle (hope shoulder is not sign of significant problems), Ryan, and Ober forming the start of a decent rotation, and IF Kirilloff, Lewis, Larnach and others come back healthy to add to Buxton for 100 games (and he is worth his salary), Miranda, Arraez, Polanco, maybe Wallner, etc to form a decent core. IF they add a top of the rotation type starter, catching help, and bullpen help they could make a run for it even if Cleveland and Chicago are better. I think Correa is out, and if so, they should have the money to make improvements.
  3. RJA
    For me, Lopez continuing to struggle was the big news out of this game. He looks like the “old” Lopez ever since the Twins acquired him. Never bet on a reliever who has a half year of success. I hope I am wrong and he comes back strong next year.
  4. RJA
    I agree. IMHO, Canterino is another example of the Twins failing to deal with medical issues appropriately. If they plan to turn over every "stone" before looking at surgery, a lot of prospects are going suffer. By delaying surgery, they cost him this year and next year. Too bad, the kid has the talent to pitch in the bigs.
  5. RJA
    I am always fascinated by the players chosen by the FO (of any team) to go to the AFL. I can see why Julien (who looks like a real prospect) and Martin (needs to work on some stuff) were chosen, but I am usually unsure why particular pitchers were chosen. You did a great job of explaining each selection, Steve, thank you for the back stories on each player. I am not making a trip this year, but with Julien and Martin there, I wish I was. If anyone does go, post some thoughts as you watch.
  6. RJA
    Well, based on this data, it appears that a high spin rate may or may not lead to success on the diamond! And, it may or may not be due to round 2 of a sticky stuff conspiracy. Frankly, Smeltzer is getting bombed at AAA, and Archer has been so-so at best all year, and it looks like it has struck midnight and Lopez's carriage has turned into a pumpkin after his half year of success. Frankly, success as a pitcher depends on so many things--velocity, spin rates, command, arm action, pitch selection, consistency, etc.--that, not being a pitching coach, I conclude that good pitchers find a way to get batters out and bad pitchers don't ;).
  7. RJA
    Thanks, Steve. I greatly appreciate your response. When I saw him there were glimmers of great stuff, but the same inconsistency you noted, only probably worse. In one case he threw three almost unhittable pitches to get a punch out, and followed it with walks and multiple hits on pitches he left hanging. I suspect he will get a lot of tutoring and help this off season.
  8. RJA
    Thank you! It sure would be great if he gets back on track next year. The stuff is definitely there.
  9. RJA
    As your article indicates, we have not seen enough of him for a long enough stretch of uninjured time to know exactly how he will fit in to the lineup. To me, he is another example of the confusing injury situation facing the Twins. I guess I question whether it was best to let him continue to play with a wrist injury last year and a core injury this year. And, as seems to always be the case with the Twins, his recovery time took longer than expected. Maybe Larnach didn't communicate well, but it sure looks to me like it is an area for examination in the off season. I still really like this kid's potential.
  10. RJA
    I would love to hear your impression of his performance if you can post it. I saw him earlier this year and he really struggled. I hope he is righting the ship. We need him.
  11. RJA
    The injury issues with this team are really confusing, both in terms of the sheer number of injuries and the way they seem to drag on without getting better, and as you noted, the timelines for return seem to get extended and extended. Let's be clear, some injuries, like what Lewis suffered, are bound to happen, and I am not an expert by any means, but I think the FO should review what is going on with the medical and training staff to make sure everything is being done to keep and get our players healthy.
  12. RJA
    We have three interesting prospects on the mound tonight--Balazovic, Headrick, and Raya. Hopefully, Balazovic has another good performance tonight so he has something to build on next year. He and SWR could both put themselves in a position to help next year at some point.
  13. RJA
    Three thoughts. First, Wallner is continuing his pattern of struggling a bit at every new level, but then lighting it up. It would be nice if he could win Kepler's spot next year at some point. Second, Julien is so incredibly consistent, and is an on base machine. He too has to get a close look in spring training. The Twins do have a lot of younger position players in or close to the majors--Arraez, Kirilloff, Larnach, Miranda, Lewis, Wallner, Julien, and Lee so I feel pretty comfortable with the lineup long term. Third, the area I feel much less comfortable with is the pitching, both due to underperformance and injuries, so it is great to see Festa stepping up big time. He should move fast.
  14. RJA
    Nice article. I think he has added some zip to his fastball which is helping him, but he also mentions working on other pitches. When I have seen him on MiLB TV, he has shown good command, the ability to limit walks and a number of swings and misses. At 6 ft 6 inches I think his ball gets to the plate quickly like Ober (but not to his extent). Dman raises a good question about his out pitch, because as he climbs a lot of pitches generating swings and misses tend to get fouled off. Still a lefty with these numbers might look good in the bullpen even if he lacks the pitches to start. And, in the bullpen, his velocity would play up.
  15. RJA
    Rocco will be here for sure, but I could see coaching changes, and maybe changes to the conditioning and medical treatment of players (I do not have the knowledge to determine if something can be done to limit injuries, but they might change out some people and try). I thought Tingler was brought in to give Rocco someone to seek advice from when making game decisions. But, I see no evidence that happened. I think they will get an experienced (maybe college again) pitching coach, and maybe a hitting coach to work on approaches at the plate with runners on base, with two strikes, etc. The one change I would really advocate for is a different approach by the FO in free agency and trades--please no more Pagans, Colomes, Happs, Smiths, Shoemakers, and no injured players like Paddack and maybe Mahle.
  16. RJA
    Thank you for your kind response. I totally agree that injuries gave them no chance to realize their potential, which at least offensively was considerable. I understand where you are coming from, and the end of the season is a gut punch to all of us. I think many reacted to your headline and not your article. Thanks for all you contribute to the site. Boy, you generated conversation with this article :)!
  17. RJA
    If this article was meant to highlight injuries, it certainly did that and I understand why Nick wrote it. I guess what I question is the headline about never standing a chance. That simply is not true, as we were still in it a week ago. I would refer everyone to Gleeman's article in the Athletic where he quantifies the injuries as noted by several commentators above, but also points out that the lack of clutch hitting and bullpen implosions surrendering late leads were also culprits. We did stand a chance, even with the injuries, but a horrible bullpen (Gleeman points out lots of stats about how bad it is outside of Duran), poorly constructed rotation full or 4-5 innings guys, players not hitting in the clutch, and a manager who kept running Pagan out there to blow games (remember the same tendency with Colome) hurt us in the end. It would have been remarkable to overcome all these injuries and still win the division, but we could have done it. It was not impossible in this the worst division in baseball. Nick, I would change the headline to match your analysis.
  18. RJA
    The FO will be back, so there is no reason to speculate about that issue. But, they have greatly messed up free agency, and they have made some questionable trades, which have kept them from winning the most winnable division in all of baseball. Any story line about these two guys being whiz kids is long past. Now they have four challenges. First, put together a quality rotation and bullpen, neither of which should feature bargain basement acquisitions. Maeda, Paddack, and I fear Mahle are big question marks (Mahle having what amounts to season long shoulder issues that are often a precursor to something serious). Second, fix the catching situation. I don't think Jeffers alone is going to carry this team. Third, figure out what is behind this team's inability to get big hits, whether it be the personnel, the hitting coach, or something in the water in Minnesota. Finally, make a decision on Correa once he opts out. I could see them doing an elaborate dance with Correa in the offseason only to see him end up elsewhere after most of the quality free agents have signed leaving us with an empty bag once again. I wish I was confident they were up to the task.
  19. RJA
    I do think there is a difference between innings/pitches thrown by a high school pitcher in his first year of professional baseball and three college pitchers who have that experience behind them. Raya is a better comparison to Petty and Raya has thrown only 65 innings or so which is 2/3 the number of innings of Petty. One would think that pitchers who are 3 or 4 years older, like the college guys, could be stretched out a little more unless the FO wants 5 inning pitchers. In that case, they better to a heck of a better job of staffing the bullpen or this year will just repeat itself.
  20. RJA
    Both :).
  21. RJA
    Three thoughts. Like others, I think it would have been nice to see Wallner at Target Field for some games. He always takes a few weeks to adjust when he moves up a level, so maybe it is best that they don't bring him up this fall and let him finish strong at St. Paul. If they brought him up, and he did his usual thing of struggling at a new level, he would go into the offseason having to think about his struggles at the MLB level and not his success at Wichita and St. Paul. Second, this season looks like it is on life support, but I am looking forward to next year when Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff, Lewis and hopefully Julien, will get fresh/new chances to prove themselves. I still believe in a core of Buxton, Arraez, Miranda, Polanco and this group, though somebody may be moved in a trade. I think young players coming up. like Miranda did this year, is one of the coolest things about baseball. Despite his comments about Minnesota, Correa will hit the market, but if you added him to that core it would be interesting. Finally, Enlow had a good outing so let's hope he realizes his potential once his injury is behind him and works his way up the ladder.
  22. RJA
    Good pitching performances but it sure would be nice to see them allow Raya (and others) to pitch more than 3 or 4 innings with 50 some pitches. I continue to believe it is a mistake to limit innings/pitches so severely in the minors. I see no evidence that it is limiting injuries.
  23. RJA
    Rodriguez by a landslide unless injuries become a problem. Miller would have to have a super incredible year next year to approach number 1--but I do like his long term potential. Of the other 3, Prielipp would be most likely to approach number 1 as he is more experienced, but Raya is our best pitching prospect long term I think.
  24. RJA
    It is not looking good for the home team. The pitching matchups favor Cleveland today and tomorrow, so the boys better bring their hitting shoes. These next two games are make or break games as falling back by 4.5 games would be lethal, especially when the have to catch two teams.
  25. RJA
    Let's hope Martin is finding himself a bit. It is always a bad sign when the story lead is that Martin hit his second home run of the year! Hopefully, home runs won't be as noteworthy of mention next year. SWR's year is ending well. I would suspect if he performs well early next year at St. Paul, he will get an invite to Target Field. Great stuff. Varland and SWR may end up being the best of our young pitchers--pray for health. Finally, Julien is remarkable. He is 0 for 3 but has two walks. He has an insane ability to get on base. He is another guy that could move up next year. I love our young position players, now if the pitching could catch up and everyone could stay healthy, we could have some fun.
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