RJA

The only silver lining in all of this is that the AL Central is so pathetic that 85 wins could win it all, especially with the new balanced schedule. But, when I look at the projected lineups, I don't think the Twins are close to fielding a team that would do anything in the playoffs even if they were lucky enough to take the Central. I think we all need to admit to ourselves that the Twins will never be a consistent winner so long as we refuse to spend more on payroll and take some chances in free agency. Even if we had signed Correa, we would never have spent the money necessary to surround him with talent. He knew that and made an intelligent decision to go elsewhere. We are stuck in a rut of being good enough to be decent and sometimes a little better than that, but never a top tier team. "Pretty good" should be our mantra.

If he stinks, we lose 11 million and some crucial at bats for youngsters. If he does well, he is gone in a year ( Boras client afterall) and we have done nothing to build for the future. Can't see how this move makes sense.

Let's stop the dumpster diving articles :).

While I was hopeful, yet extremely skeptical from the start, of the Twins signing Correa the Giants signing made some sense. This makes no sense to me. World Series. It is all about being competitive. He is now on a team that is very likely, given their talent and the owner's willingness to add talent as needed, to be a World Series contender for his whole career. What have the Twins done to be more competitive?

We will never know what happened for sure, but my guess is that Boras checked back with the Twins after the SF deal fell through or he was told by the Twins that their last offer was truly as far as they would go. He is too good of an agent not to explore all options. I understand everyone’s frustration with big market teams, but this deal could have been done by the Twins. It is clear that they are never going to be serious players in free agency, so I am beginning to see some advantage to a rebuild. If you can trade your best current players for top flight prospects, especially pitchers, or trade short term guys like Mahle, Gray and Maeda at the deadline for prospects, it might be possible to establish a nucleus for the next 5 years. Bitter pill I know. But maybe something to think about given the young guys we already have—and Buck!

Boras sold the FO boys on this move just like he sold them on Correa for a year. The big difference is Correa was a top free agent and Gallo is not. It makes perfect sense for Boras and Gallo--if he rebounds even to a decent year, he will enter free agency in a much stronger position and still collect 11 million for his work this year. If he fails, he still has his 11 million. IF the Twins wanted to make a move like this, for heaven's sake get an option for a second year just in case he lights it up. They were used and abused by Boras in this situation.

I like the idea that we need to strengthen the bullpen, so I would be a go on that. I like Eovaldi but, my oh my, why is it that we seem to be a magnet for pitchers with injury issues. I am leery of that move, though he may be the best we can do at this late date. Adames all depends on the cost. I am not a fan of trades for players with 1 or 2 years of control as it does not help you build a core. Plus, the Twins have a bundle of infielders coming up in the system with Lewis, Lee, and Julien.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. It seems like the Twins should remember this old adage.

Another point in all of this is his non-salary income opportunities. The market exposure he will get playing in California is much greater than that of Minnesota. Therefore, his "supplementary" income will be much larger in SF than it would have been in Minnesota.

Interesting take. I would point out that 2019 is a total outlier for virtually every player due to the "enhanced" baseball that year. In 2019, Kepler hit 36 homeruns with an .866 OPS. In the last two years combined, he has hit 28 homeruns with a combined OPS of less than .700. I do appreciate Gallo's defense, and he might prove the last year and a half was an anomaly, but it looks like a desperate move to me.

Great summary, Seth, as usual. It is not losing Correa that frustrates many fans, though most wanted him back, it is the failure of this FO to sign anyone while they wait for Correa's decision. It appears to me that Boras plays this FO like a fiddle. He convinced them to sign Correa for one year to up his value, and then leads them on in negotations until somebody steps in and gives him the contract he wanted. Then, he convinces them to add Gallo, another left handed hitting outfielder, for 11 million on a one year contract with no option, so that if he is lousy the Twins lose 11 million, but if he rebounds, they will lose him to free agency. IMHO, if the Twins want to create any sustained level of success, they need to develop their own talent and use free agency effectively. Making trades for players with one or two years of control simply kicks the can down the road.

Turner just signed with the Red Sox, so he won't be added. I think they will try to trade for a pitcher, using Kepler and another player or two, so I think it is 50-50 on Kepler staying. Personally, as Turner got 22 over two years, I would have preferred him over Gallo. With so many ifs about health in the lineup, they might just go with what they have, get a RP as you suggest, and see what happens early on. If they do well, maybe they will add at the deadline. If not, they will likely play a lot of kids. If they don't, I think some veterans will be dealt and some degree of rebuild will occur. It almost has to since Mahle, Gray, and Maeda are all gone in 24 unless they extend them which will be difficult in this market given the contracts for pitchers that are being handed out. It is going to be an interesting year I think as things could go in a number of directions.

Interesting posts. I personally don’t consider trading for a pitcher means they come out of your minor league pipeline. The Twins do not compete effectively for top tier starters in free agency—I don’t think anyone can argue that point. Thus, they have to get topflight starters in a trade or through their farm system. Thus far, they have not done so. Gray, Mahle, and Maeda are not top tier starters. Neither is Ryan. Neither is Ober. We don’t know about the new guys yet. Now we can have a staff of number 3 starters and that may make us competitive but is not likely to get us through the playoffs if we reach them. But, when you trade for starters with only one to 2 years of control, you have to make trades every two years to put a rotation together. When you sign someone in free agency, or develop your own, you have 4-5 plus years of control. That provides stability and means you don’t have to trade young talent every two years. My point is that living off trades is not sustainable and will not lead to long term success. Love your posts, even when I disagree. They are always thoughtful :).

I am not quite I guess I am not quite sure what your point is. I don't consider Cueto a second tier guy. I would consider anyone other than a true ace to be second tier and the track record of signings for some of those guys is as good as for top tier guys. I think you missed my point. Sorry.

The problem with this FO is that they abhor long contracts, especially with pitchers. They routinely offer fewer years and less money than other teams believing that they have the "know how" to develop their own starters. The problem with this strategy is, of course, that IF you are not developing starters inhouse, you are perpetually looking to trade for starters with a year or two of control at the expense of your young talent or existing stars. Or, you dumpster dive for Bundy, Archer, Shoemaker, Happ, Bailey, Hill, and similar "talent." You never have a consistent starting rotation as it, by necessity, changes every year. If they signed a Rodon or Ray type, and another second tier starter in free agency, you would at least have 3-5 years of stability in the rotation. Then, IF your young pitchers develop, you have a great problem--a surplus of pitching--that you an then use as trade bait like the Guardians have done. So, get used to this yearly mantra from the Twins FO that they will pivot and still have a great team, as we will be hearing that for however long the Pohlads reject investing more in their team and this FO keeps patting themselves on the back about how smart and "creative" they are. Sad situation.

It is interesting that you note the Twins traded Urshela so Miranda could have third base all to himself when they now say they may sign Turner to share time with Miranda and mentor him. This FO changes their opinions as often as the Minnesota weather changes. I think they are looking to justify these last minute acquisitions so they don't look like they screwed things up waiting for Correa.

Boras absolutely owns this FO. He manipulates the heck out of them. So, if Gallo sucks, he gets 11 million on his way out of the league. If he does decent, he will get a contract from someone else next year as there apparently is not an option built in. He treats the Twins like the Yankees used to treat the KC franchise in the 50's and 60's, kind of like a farm team. These Ivy League boys are real aces.

For adding a good defensive glove to your OF and a bat that has historically hit well at TF and has upside to him 30+ HR's. Not every signing is going to be a franchise guy. They are banking on their young guys to be those guys....they haven't proven they can yet so until they do you bring in a veteran that can help the team win games. I believe that's the goal, right? You are ignoring some facts. Don't like projections, then note that Kepler's career WAR is 16.9 and Gallo's is 14.7. Hmmm, unless my math skills need work, Kepler has outperformed Gallo in the same number of years by 2 WAR. I don't like either of them much, but to add this guy at 11 million is crazy. All the spinning in the world won't change that fact. And, he bats left handed. Kepler is better in high leverage at bats as he has hit .250 with .725 OPS, while Gallo is .166 and .681. Late and close Gallo is .156 and .629. We couldn't afford Urshela at 9 million so we sign Gallo for 11. Amazing.

Sherry, I love your optimism, but I doubt they included everything but the kitchen sink as they were 65 million short--that would buy a lot of kitchen sinks :). According to Dan Hayes, they are now looking at Joey Gallo--a left handed hitting player who would be a huge improvement (?) over Larnach, Wallner or Kirilloff, and Justin Turner who had almost identical stats to Gio Urshela last year, but was one WAR short of him, but who would provide veteran leadership for Miranda, and probably only for an extra 3-5 million more than Urshela. I love your articles--I am not being grumpy, just realistic.

It frustrates me when he exercises so much influence with the players association, but boy oh boy, he may be the best agent in any sport in history. He is bright, funny, and knows how to play all the angles. I agree with you, he does an exceptional job.

Well, there goes one pivot opportunity :).

Interesting take. I personally think Correa was honest in his comments about the team and area, but unlike Buck, he didn't grow up in this organization, so any thoughts that one year here would cause him to give a hometown discount were misplaced. He did what almost anyone would do in his situation--he took the extra 65 million dollars. My problem with the FO is that they should know that as well, and should not let many quality players come off the board while they are waiting for Correa. It is hard to pivot in free agency when very few quality players are left. By playing a waiting game, they missed other opportunities to improve the club. If you are going to be "disciplined" and not expand the budget for an extrordinary player, then move on immediately and work other angles while players are still available. Frankly, trading for Mahle and Paddack when one was experiencing a shoulder issue in the current season, and the other was having issues after one TJ surgery is not a sign they are aggressive, it is a sign they are foolish and not disciplined. It is much like the additions of Happ, Shoemaker, Hill, Bailey, Archer, and Bundy. They did nothing to improve the team. My Dad always told me "buy quality tools even if they cost more because they will last longer and do a better job." I think this FO should take his advice to heart.

Heyman's latest article in Post suggests Twins not really in on Swanson and are reassessing where they go from here.

I think Miranda, Kirilloff, and Duran could be candidates a year from now if they have healthy productive years, but it is too early otherwise. Lewis I would wait on until end of 24 assuming he is playing and doing well. Arraez they will not extend. They don't think he will age well, he has no defensive position, and I do think they might use him for trade bait given the young guys coming up. Thanks for jumping in and posting a topic.

This will be an average team unless a lot of young players step up.