RJA

Great comments. I am not sure I have a pony in this race, but I think discussing this within the parameters of existing payroll constraints is not helpful I think anytime a team looks to add a player that has as much to offer as they think Correa did, it should be willing to stretch the payroll to make it happen. If you look at the numbers, Correa will be making roughly 27 million a year for 13 years. This year he was making 35 million, and the Twins were ok with that salary for three years. If they valued him as much as they claim--great leader, mentor for young players, great skills, face of the franchise, etc.--then why not agree that the payroll will increase to accomodate his salary. Look, he signed for 350 million which was 65 million more than the Twins offered. If he agreed to a 10 year contract for 350 million with the Twins, it would have cost them an extra 6.5 million a year. They were already comfortable with 285, so they were planning to pay 28.5 million a year already. Frankly, these salary levels are crazy for an old guy like me, but the real question we should be asking is should the Twins have agreed to increase payroll by 6.5 million a year to get this done. IF they truly valued him like they say, I think it might have behooved them to do so. For those that think he is not worth it, I understand. I am not sure I do. But, I think this will signal to players and the league that the Twins aren't really ready to fish in the deep end of the pond. And, of course, the other question is where do we go from here? Swanson is not someone I would pay 200 plus million to. Rodon is not likely to be here--he wants New York or a big market. We will be losing three starters after next year. This FO is really between a rock and a hard place IMHO. Crazy times.

Amen. There was no way that offer was going to be acceptable, and if all of us know that, how can the FO geniuses (kudos to Sid Hartman) not know that? They did the same thing in the Wheeler situation, and ended up getting Donaldson, who like virtually all Twins trade additions, had an injury history. Surprise, surprise, he was injured here, too. It is like this group is constipated in their decision making, and then when their unrealistic plans don't materialize, they frantically look to do something to save face. It is not like even bringing Correa back (even assuming that was a good idea), was going to make this team better. It would have been the same team. Let's hope Kirilloff, Larnach, Miranda and the rest of the next generation take a big step forward. If we don't improve to compete this year, in 24 we will be without Mahle, Gray and Maeda, and only have one year left for Paddack, and he is coming off his second surgery. This FO is in a pickle IMHO. It will be interesting to see what they do next. Let's hope it is something that makes this team better in a meaningful way.

Tell me your team has a losing record without telling me your team has a losing record. Yep!

I think Farmer could catch in a pinch so it would also be possible to use both catchers as DH's a few times a month. I think the time sharing will work out just fine. Not a lot of responses to this article though it is a good one. Everyone is obsessed with the Correa storyn :)!

There are no meaningful pivots left. Bogaerts signed for 11 and 280. Can you believe the Twins best offer for Correa was all of 5 million more than that? What are the members of our front office smoking to think that would be anywhere near enough to get Correa.? It is crazy to give Swanson a huge contract--there is a reason he is the last man standing. He is a complimentary piece not a star. Rodon will not come here, especially with no Correa. Trading young players is like eating your young--why do that when you can sign free agents at zero cost of personnel? I am now convinced that his FO and ownership will never do what is necessary to sign top tier free agents. Right now, there is nobody but Buck on his healthy days, IF Rocco puts him in the lineup, that will bring people to the park. It is going to be a rough year attendance wise. Let's pray the young kids light it up!

Hmm. Let's see. Two of your three most consistent hitters are gone--Correa and Urshela. Buck may or may not stay healthy. Kirilloff may or may not be healthy. Mahle may or may not be healthy. Larnach may or may not stay healthy. Winder and Ober may or may not stay healthy. Arraez may or may not be traded. Gray, Maeda, and Mahle are all in the last year of their contracts. The young pitchers, Varland, SWR, and others, may or may not have breakout years. With so many "ifs", I think attendance will really plunge if they don't start strong, and even if they do, it will be later in the summer before fans really start to believe. Swanson won't move the needle if acquired. Rodon would move it a bit. Frankly, I don't see how attendance rebounds. Sorry.

Humorous post. You do get a wide range of reactions on this subject, but it is just baseball. The Twins will never pony up big dollars unless someone signs for a hometown discount like Buck. It was never going to happen, especially at 285 million. Why fret over it?

Yes, this is the agent trying to generate action, and the Yankees trying to generate leverage. So much that appears on MLBTR is put there for a purpose by interested parties. I still love the site, however!

I'll put money on 2022 being Correa's last year with solid numbers. How much :)?

Fantastic post. Everyone, and I mean everyone, knew it would take more than 300 million to land Correa. If they knew they were not willing to go to 300 million, why in the world wait around while top names sign elsewhere only to sigh and say, we were in the hunt? This FO think they are the smartest guys in the room. The difference between how smart they think they are and how smart they really are is profound. They say they want to build from within and then trade away a bunch of prospects. Then they pursue Correa knowing they will never pay what is requrired while the quality free agents go off the board. Now we are back in the Wheeler situation, "pivoting" to someone who is still available to make them look good. BTW in 10 years, 28 million will be closer to 18-19 million in todays dollars, and payrolls will be much, much higher meaning he would not have been a big drag in those last years. Sad, truly sad.

Swanson had a nice year at a very opportune time as he was entering free agency. I think he is worth exploring, especially if the price was such that it allowed us to add another significant piece--say Rodon--if we were to trade Kepler and use that money as well. But, I realize that it is very unlikely our FO would extend that far. One thing concerns me with Swanson, his strikeout rate, but these days striking out 182 times is pretty normal! On the positive side, his advanced stats show consistency over the past 3 or 4 years, so he is showing no signs of decline yet.

Excellent signing. I also have read that he is a good clubhouse guy and I think that is important. I am always intrigued by players who have great contact skills but don't walk a lot. One would think the two would go hand in hand, but they clearly don't. Austidillo is proof positive of that fact. Let's hope we get a shortstop and/or pitcher next.

I think hometown fans are often too optimistic in evaluating their rosters, so having some projections is always a blast. I hope I am wrong, but I think the starting rotation is not as good as many think, and the unknowns surrounding Kirilloff, Lewis, Mahle, Maeda, Larnach, and many others make this coming year hard to predict. If everyone is healthy and playing well, it could be fun. If not, it might be a long summer. Let's hope the young pitching develops this year.

Whoa, let's not get excited as I am not sure that Kepler will bring anything of value back in a trade that moves the needle in a meaningful way. The Twins need catching, a shortstop, bullpen pieces and a number one starter. Does anyone have ideas about who the Yankees have to fill any of these roles, and who we might target?

Boras is a genius when it comes to maximizing paychecks for his players. He is holding on to Correa and Rodon as the market shrinks, and the Giants and Yankees, and maybe some others, become more desperate as they watch other teams add talent. I have to believe the Yanks are watching all the press the crosstown rivals are getting and feeling pressure to add someone beyond Judge. It would not surprise me at all if they added Rodon.

My fear is that the FO is focusing on one player, Correa, while other players are coming off the market in droves. I suspect they are not wanting to spend any money until they know if they are going to get Correa, but if that pursuit continues to drag on, once again we will be dumpster diving in January when the top talent is gone. Or, we will be trying to make trades for pitchers with 2 years of control, which won't help much with Gray, Mahle, and Maeda all free agents after next year. What good is all that salary space going to do us if Correa goes elsewhere and nothing is left in the cupboard? This FO seems to always be late to the party. That is how we ended up with Donaldson, and why we end up trading for so much pitching with very mixed results. I just hope the young pitchers shine this year so we can have a decent pitching staff in 24 and 25. It is time for the "develop our own" philosophy to pay dividends.

Great article for discussion. I agree with Mikelink45, I am not quite sure how getting rid of your top hitters from a BA/OBP point of view from last year--assuming Correa does not sign--is going to help this team. While the pitching caused issues last year, this team also had a terrible time being consistent at the plate, giving away far too many at bats by chasing out of the zone and trying to hit homeruns. Now if Correa leaves, and with Urshela gone, and you trade Arraez for two years of Lopez, I fear the number of games where we fail to generate any offense and lose 3-1 or 4-2 will be even greater. On the other hand, if Correa stays at 35M a year, will they stretch the budget next year to keep Mahle, Gray, and Maeda, or their replacements, all of whom will be looking for big deals based on this year's signings? It will be interesting to see how the FO navigates the next two years.

Boy, hot topic! The Pohlads are worth at least 3.8 billion, so they could supplement the payroll by 50 million a year with zero problem. So, the answer is, the Twins can be like the Padres but the Pohlads choose not to spend the money. Now some say they shouldn't, that they should run the baseball team like any other business. Others say baseball is a different animal, and that stadiums subsidize billionaires so they should loosen their pocketbooks. I fall into the latter camp but respect that others reasonably believe the former. Success on the field is a combination of player development and payroll budgets. While the Guardians and Rays are examples of teams who have had some success with low payrolls, nobody can argue that larger budgets are not tied to more success. While small market teams can make a run based only on player development (like the Royals did), the big spenders--like the Dodgers, Astros, Mets, Yankees, Philly, etc.--tend to do better over the long haul. This does not mean "spending money like a drunken sailor" is the way to go, but when a team has some young talent, spending money to get them over the hump makes loads of sense. My frustration with this FO is that they are constipated in their decision making--missing out on a lot of free agent pitchers, and thereby having to dumpster dive by adding Shoemaker, Happ, Bundy, Archer, Bailey, etc. Is there risk in adding a long term free agent pitcher, yes. Is there risk in not doing so, yes. It is just a question of which risk you want to assume. I just wish our FO and ownership opted for the latter risk more often.

I love that we are talking draft in December--that is what getting the number 5 pick can do to ramp up enthusiasm. There is a whole lot more baseball to be played before we get really serious about our pick, but I confess I am interested to see what Wes Johnson can do with Skenes. Absent injury, Dollander will be gone for sure, and I don't think they would use a 5 pick on a high school pitcher, or maybe on any pitcher for that matter given the bats that will be on the board, but if one of the other 3 really improves this year they might become attractive. Actually, if Varland, SWR, Balazovic, and the other young pitchers are struggling by July, who knows what they might do? Dman hit the nail on the head, however, as they are in a great position in a draft with up to 10 quality choices, maybe more as other players develop this year. They should get a top notch talent.

Three thoughts. It is fun to speculate but so much can change between now and July depending on how players perform next spring, injuries, etc. Still, whatever happens, we are likely to get a high end prospect in what is thought to be an excellent draft. Second, the Twins usually go for toolsy guys, especially infielders, so I think the plethora of good shortstops this year will be real attractive to them regardless of Correa's fate with the Twins. Finally, unless Dollander drops, I cannot see them taking a pitcher at 5. That would be a more realistic possiblity for their second pick if they don't trade it.

Three thoughts. First, the whole payroll situation is a bit of a chicken and an egg situation. Should the Twins invest more in the product on the field in order to generate more interest, or should they wait for interest to develop and then spend more. I think the former is the only logical way to go. Second, nobody knows for sure what the revenue numbers are around the league except for Atlanta. It is hard to calculate what percentage of total revenue is spent on payroll when we don't know the actual revenue numbers. Third, as many people have pointed out, just spending money guarantees nothing, but spending money wisely promises a better result. Thus far, the jury is out on whether this FO spends money wisely. It looks to be another interesting off season.

I agree. I think the attraction some people have for the Rule 5 draft is based on a lottery mentality. Everyone knows they are going to lose, but the fact that maybe, just maybe, they will win big makes it impossible to resist. I think fans reflect back on Pressley and Santana (yes, I know it was a trade) and dream on the possiblilities. Human nature, methinks.

I complain about things along the way, but it is definitely the ride, and has been since I was listening to Ray Scott, Halsey Hall and Herb Carneal as a kid on summer evenings while chasing walleyes in northern Minnesota, or later with Carneal, Quilici and Gordon while sitting on the deck by the lake and sipping drinks. Baseball is just a part of summer life, and even if the Twins never, God forbid, make the World Series again in my lifetime, you can't take away those great summer days and nights on the lake. Great times and great memories.

Great article, Lucas. I will just add my eyeball observations as I have seen him pitch 4 or 5 times over the past couple of years. Clearly, his mechanics were messed up this year, and sometimes I think having pitchers continue to pitch if they have a knee or leg issue is the worst thing you can do as they tend to fall into bad habits and have difficulty repeating their delivery. Whatever the case, he wasn't right this year at all. I have seen him at his best, and his stuff is super when he is on. So, first, I hope they are making sure his knee strain is ok and having him build strength and flexibility in PT. Second, if his knee is fine, I hope they can work on his mechanics in the ways you suggest (you know WAY more about that than I do), and get him back on track. If they can get him "right", I still believe he can be a big league pitcher, and a good one.

Did "strong and stable stewardship" of the franchise include offering to voluntarily contract the franchise in 2001 ;)! I think I would have chosen different wording, but actually I like this move. I do think Joe will take a fresh approach and maybe can even convince his uncle to loosen the purse strings a bit and let the budget drift north by a few million. Neither Carl or Jim were passionate about baseball, so having someone who loves the game in charge is a big plus in my mind. It will be interesting to see if he puts his imprint on the franchise in the next couple of years. Good news.