d-mac

Did someone say cash outside?

WTF? I'd rather them find out what they have with Vargas and Park. At least Park can play defense at first.

Small Sample Size is Smalltm

Since we're on a Sano/Buxton tangent, I figured I'd share this. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/xstats-steamer-and-players/ Andrew Perpetua has a nice system (xstats) that analyzes batted ball type using statcast data to help filter out "luck" in batters and pitchers and project future performance. Andrew released some projections, in the linked article, for some young players with potential fantasy value and compares his xstat projections to their Steamer projections. Included are Sano and Buxton. His projection for Sano is .247 BA, with .497 SLG and 30 HR in 546 PA, slightly above where Steamer has him. Buxton on the other hand, he has pegged for a .225 BA, .373 SLG, and only 11 HR in 513 PA, significantly less than Steamer.

A 35 run swing is absolutely a 0.22 ERA swing based on the Twins' 1,443 staff IP last year. ([816ER- 35]/1443IP)*9= 4.87. 5.09-4.87= 0.22. I used stat corner's catch framing metric to get the 35 run swing. Castro was at +12.8 RAA, Gimmenz +1.2, Murphy -0.2, Suzuki -5.0, Centeno -16.9.

Then swap out Stewart for an equivalent quality position prospect. Or Alvarez and Stewart. Those are probably happy middle ground between De Leon + AAAA filler and De Leon, Alvarez + 3rd prospect.

Batting average? This is 2017, son! Castro beats Suzuki in wRC+ in both '15 and '16 with 79 and 88 to 'Zuke's 65 and 86. Castro is not going to set the world on fire by any stretch of the imagination, but he's hardly a downgrade from Suzuki with the bat. And DRS, UZR, etc are all not great evaluators of catcher defense. Baseball Prospectus had a great all encompassing tool for catcher defense which includes catcher framing, but sadly it seems to have gone behind their paywall. When it was accessible Castro was rated as one of the best regular catchers at framing and about average and throwing out runners and blocking pitchers. Suzuki was one of the worst framers and one of the best at blocking pitches and slightly below average with throwing out runners. Centeno was one of the worst at everything. Castro+ Murphy or Castro+ Gimmenez will be a HUGE upgrade defensively over Suzuki+Centeno. According to Statcorner's catcher report that's a 34.5 to 36.1 run swing in defense on framing alone (depending on Castro's backup). Assuming those runs are all earned, that's a 0.22 reduction in staff ERA without even changing any of the pitchers.

Catching pop ups does not require athletic ability. It's a learned skill that can be improved with reps.

Clearly.

Gah. De Leon and Stewart. Was that too much to ask for?

Interesting his last year's contact score, wRC+, and adj production were better than Suzuki's. People keep saying we'll be unhappy with his offensive production.

That'd be true if most switch hitters didn't have platoon splits, which most do.

That whole show is brilliant.

Is it just me or does Rick Astley look like a very gingery Benedict Cumberbatch?

Serious or naw?

I mean he wasn't healthy.. soo...

Well the Twins didn't have a DH on their roster until 2010. No, Jason Tyner doesn't count.

Ugh. Sano is too young and athletic to be a DH only type.

Players generally swing better from their natural side. (ex- Aaron Hicks). It's very difficult to have balanced left/right splits unless the player has a VMart/Beltran hit tool, players that likely wouldn't have platoon split issues to begin with. So again, why waste the energy on switch hitting?

Faint praise indeed.

Agreed. I'd also preferred they'd keep him too. I don't get all the hate for him. He gets on base like a boss. I'd prefer they had not signed Belisle. We wouldn't be having this discussion.

For the record, I preferred Jason McLeod.

Vargas was just granted a 4th option year. The move makes even less sense in light of that.

Why not dump Grossman or Dsan to sign either of those players?

Can't imagine anyone is. This seems like a very Terry Ryan sequence of moves. Sign a veteran retread NL only reliever with poor K-rate. Need roster spot- bypass logical fringe relievers, Danny Santana- jettison injured player with potential with good metrics but poor batting average.