jimmer

From today's Fangraphs chat: Q:'There’s lots of talk in NY about the Yankees trading Brett Gardner because he’s a LHB in a LHB heavy lineup that has slumped in the 2nd half for 2 consecutive seasons. But isn’t Gardner a valuable player signed to an affordable contract regardless of when he’s valuable and from what side of the plate? Or is he talked about because folks really want to trade Ellsbury, but can’t,so they take out their trade frustration on the next person sufficiently that resembles Ellsbury?' Jeff Sullivan: 'Gardner’s 32 now, and he’s not *cheap*, and Hicks can do a pretty good job of being a similar player given the chance.' Similar to Gardner is good player.

The guy I responded too said Scouting Director in his argument so I replied to that. It's good info to know though.

Last I heard he was moving. Maybe things changed so much he doesn't have the time. Maybe he will be back some day on some site. He seemed pretty well liked for the most part, at least on the MLB sites. Not sure about here since I wasn't here when he was.

Like Kwak, not sure why you would mention a guy/gal who posted here so long ago. Very cheap shot indeed. I've seen him/her other places, like MLB story comments and Fangraphs once in awhile (though not for awhile) and he/she seems very reasonable to me even though we've had our spirited debates. Is it possible you just disagreed with him/her and he only looked unreasonable because you and others couldn't out-debate him/her due to him being a very good debater? Or maybe, like Kwak said, you mistook him/her for someone else?

And that's a valid point, Brock, but then again people who are quoting Murphy's OPS as a reason to like this trade are dealing with exactly the same small sample size.

Yes, except I did take it into account because certainly that's why his home numbers were considerable better in BA and OBP. It's normally how it works. So I agree, I'd find it funny as well if people didn't do take that into account. Not sure anyone failed to do that though. Yes his BABIP was about league average away in his 80 or so PAs. .243 BA/.298 OBP away and he'll be away from NY in Minny. Are we saying that will work? And what does Mauer have to do with this discussion? It's widely believed Mauer very much underperformed in most areas (though is OBP was still good, though not Mauer like) So saying Murphy's away splits are almost as good as a guy who woefully disappointed last year is hardly a point in Murphy's favor.

your handle rocks!

I'll get excited about Rosario's offense when he maintains and OBP over .300 (ended up with a .289 OBP even with a well above average.332 BABIP, though admittedly not as high as John Ryan Murphy's BABIP) ;-)

I think it's funny that people point to Murphy's OPS without taking into account his BABIP or his home/away splits.

Well, the fact that Murphy isn't balding yet is certainly a good sign :-)

Batter BABIP is also very much susceptible to regression. Great hitters can maintain a higher one than normal. Faster player may have an extra touch due to speed, but a .357 BABIP is unlikely to be maintained. 'For hitters, we use BABIP as a sanity test of sorts that tells us if their overall batting line is sustainable or not. Virtually no hitter is capable of producing a BABIP of .380 or higher on a regular basis and anything in the .230 range is also very atypical for a major league hitter. In other words, BABIP allows us to see if a hitter seems to be getting a boost from poor defense or good luck or getting docked for facing good defenses and having bad luck. A hitter has control over how often they put the ball in play and how hard they hit the ball, but due to the unpredictable nature of luck and defense, their BABIP may not be a perfect reflection of their performance to date and it is easier to observe this fluctuation when looking at BABIP compared to wOBA, OBP, or SLG for example.' http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/babip/

I don't think he ever stated he wanted the players the Twins traded for to bust, just that there are some Twins that go to other teams he wants to see do well.

A Dave Cameron story was linked about this earlier. Here's one from Jeff Sullivan focusing on Hicks. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/three-keys-to-understanding-aaron-hicks/

Like I said, I didn't see anything in your post that said one way or another in regards to that sentence I quoted. In any event, I appreciate the clarification

Except your post didn't mention anything about one way or another being silly or disingenuous. 'I think it is a bit silly and perhaps disingenuous to attempt to criticize the deal at this point' It was specific to the attempt to criticize point of view. Are you saying it's equally silly and disingenuous to think this is a good trade too? Just looking for clarification.

people have expressed their opinion like you said they should and some got this opinion of their opinion from you 'I think it is a bit silly and perhaps disingenuous to attempt to criticize the deal at this point.'

There is no consensus on it whatsoever. There are some who believe that Hicks was starting to turn the corner and that, along with his defense, made some of us believe much better days are to come for him.

Hicks had a BABIP of .285 with his .721 OPS. Ryan's .734 OPS was slightly higher and had a BABIP of .357.

and rightfully so. The Fangraphs article makes a compelling case why this was a good trade for Cashman . Here is part of it. 'From the Twins perspective, they land a young catcher who also has shown signs of putting up decent offensive production at an up the middle position, but I’m a little more skeptical that he’ll retain his offensive value going forward. Murphy possesses less power than Hicks, but doesn’t offset that with better contact skills, nor has he shown the willingness to take pitches in order to draw walks to keep his on-base percentage up. His decent numbers in part-time play the last two years are BABIP-driven, and as a slow-footed catcher who doesn’t have a remarkable batted ball profile — his infield fly rate is actually higher than average — that shouldn’t be expected to last. So Murphy’s probably more of a below average hitter, with Steamer projecting him as an 85 wRC+ guy in 2016, and not a lot of offensive potential beyond that unless he finds some power he hasn’t yet shown. That’s good enough offense to play in the big leagues — Wilson Ramos has an 85 wRC+ over the last three seasons, for instance — but to be a quality performer, he’d have to be a very good defensive catcher; there’s not a ton of evidence that’s the case, though. Statcorner graded him out as exactly average at pitch framing, and while he throws out a good enough number of baserunners, he doesn’t appear to be anything special at blocking pitches in the dirt'

That's exactly what I did in the first sentence. I said I hope he becomes a superstar. The second sentence said I thought the trade was bad. I am not responsible for people reading into two simple sentences.

yup.

I said I hope Hicks becomes a superstar AND that it is a bad trade. I didn't say I hope the Twins end up on the bad side of this trade. You don't think I hope the catcher ends up good? That would help us, no? I wished the guy well, and I think it's a bad trade. People who want to read into what was said only have themselves to blame for misunderstanding and/or maybe they are just eager to get into it with other posters. I am not responsible for either.

I also wished Hermann well, and in the thread about trading Plouffe, I said I hope he does well whether he stays with us or not. Nothing wrong with hoping guys succeed even if they leave the team. Or maybe there is for some.

I'm glad you posted this.

How about because I'm a fan of Hicks? How about because I value outfield defense on a team lacking OF defense. How about Hicks starting to work on his OBP? I'll take a .720 OPS from a 24 year old with quality defense on a team that lacks defense. Oh, and how about a person who always stresses not taking personal shots not take personal shots? Although clearly it's allowed when defending Ryan as seen on the Ryan Swan Song thread.