chpettit19

Your eyes aren't lying to you about their fundamentals. They were absolutely brutal on the bases last year. I'm hoping there's some real improvement in the fundamentals. Gallo is a good base runner. Correa is actually really bad, but feels like he's smart enough to be better. And there's some better athletes making their way to Minneapolis so I'm hoping overall it's better all around to watch. The rental player stuff is an interesting part I've never really worried much about, because I'm a baseball nerd who pays attention to the entire league far more than the average fan. But it's been brought up by numerous people and I agree it's not ideal for building fan excitement. Wins tend to wipe away a lot of sins, but I do think it's smart to have more homegrown, long-term players that the fans can really connect with. I hope the short-term players has been more out of need than plan. They have a prospect wave arriving that needs to stay healthy and produce. If they do I think we see fewer Gallo signings and Urshela/Sanchez trades. Correa and Buxton leading the way with Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Julien, etc. would give them a nice position player base for us to fall in love with and have around for half a decade plus. Now we just need them all to stay healthy and produce!

What do I think they'll do assuming all starters make it through spring healthy? Maeda in the rotation, Ober in AAA. What would I do assuming all starters make it through spring healthy? Maeda in the rotation, Ober the long man in the pen and as spot starter until a rotation spot opens up. 100 innings would be my goal for Ober. Don't think it makes sense to give him a rotation spot to start the year and do the 4 inning Archer thing, or stop starting him at some point. He's only thrown 100 innings in a season twice in his life (assuming he didn't do it in high school). Once was 2014 when he was 18. To me it doesn't make sense to throw him in the rotation when you know he's not going to give you more than 100 innings. Try to get him back to 100 this year and then give him a rotation spot next year (assuming he hit his 100 inning mark, and not too many guys jumped him and showed they're better options).

In 2022 Larnach saw 4-seamers 31.4% of the time and hit .268 off them. Had a .464 slugging off them. He saw sliders 21.1% of the time and hit .281 off them. Had a .500 slugging off them. So I guess he learned to hit at least 1 kind of breaking ball. He was also one of the top rated cOF defenders in baseball last year. He does really struggle to hit changeups, though. I think you're going to struggle to find any experts who are predicting a 30-40 point bump to any BA from the shift rule. Especially someone who hits as many popups and soft grounders as Kepler. I certainly hope he hits around .260, but I'm going to take Larnach's bat over Kepler's in 2023 without much question at all. Not to mention Larnach was also shifted on quite a bit (72.4% of the time) so wouldn't we expect his numbers to also go up?

I agree there's some real questions on the offensive floor of this outfield, but I think you're selling other teams short on just how bad their OFs are. The Twins played all of September with a bunch of guys who had no business being on a major league field manning the OF grass in Minneapolis. Played most of the season without Kirilloff or Larnach. And still ended with the 16th best wRC+ amongst major league OFs in 2022. Offensive fWAR for the group was -3.6, which I don't think surprises anyone. But that was 19th in baseball. Miami had -41.2 fWAR and Colorado was at -41.4 to bring up the rear. Oakland also brutally bad. Texas, Cinci, Detroit, KC, Bos, Pit, and the White Sox all were worse than the Twins who had Tim freaking Beckham and Billy Hamilton forced into their OF lineup along with world beaters Mark Contreras, Jake Cave, and Kyle Garlick. Their OF offense has the chance of being very bad next year (if injuries are bad and bounce backs don't happen), but nowhere near the worst in baseball. Their defense was good enough to carry that brutal group to 13th best in fWAR for OF groups in baseball last year. If the defense gets up to 7+ fWAR this year like Arizona's was last year it'd make them a top 5 overall unit easy. Seems pretty plausible to me.

I struggle with what I think they'll do with Kepler. It's hard to compare this season to the previous seasons, because the previous seasons had his possible replacements as Cave, Contreras, Celestino, and Garlick types. Larnach and Kirilloff were both getting run even with Kepler around before they got hurt. It's hard to point to those situations and say Rocco/Falvine won't have Kepler as the 4th or 5th OFer early now that his possible replacements are Gordon, Larnach, Taylor, and Kirilloff. I see 4 spots that Kepler, Gallo, Larnach, Gordon, and Kiriloff are battling for in ST. LF, RF, 1B, DH (vs righties). Do I think Kepler likely has a leg up on RF on 2/3/23? Probably. But I don't think it's a huge advantage by any means. I mean it sure sounds like they were actively trying to trade him, but didn't get any good offers. If that's the case I'd think they probably don't see him as the ideal option in RF for a winning team in 2023. I think it's probably a pretty tight race between those 5 for those 4 spots going into ST. Injuries are a real concern with 3 of them (Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff) and I think it actually makes sense to carry Kepler into the season. But I'm not sold on Wallner, and would prefer he starts the year in St Paul. Beyond him I'm not sure who people would be clamoring to have on the roster to start the year. I think the smart thing to do is have real depth in AAA for the first time I can remember. They're trying to win, and trading Kepler only to watch Kirilloff's wrist act up (probably ends his career and I hate even thinking about it), Larnach to go down again, and Gallo not bounce back would be brutal. I think we put too much emphasis on "Opening Day Roster" like that means those 26 guys are going to play 90% of the time or something. They need 50 guys worth of depth. I don't know why we think Gordon, Larnach, Wallner, et al will be held back dramatically by having a 2 WAR player on the roster opening day. They're all going to get time and play plenty.

Baseball Savant may be our best source for having any chance of discerning struggles as outsiders without access to the extreme amounts of data teams have. By no means a perfect tool, but something like exit velocity for hitters, or spin rates for pitchers, can give a little more context to the fangraphs and b-r numbers. To your point, hitting .150 for a week looks bad, but could be a struggle or random variation. Adding in data on if a guy is still hitting the ball 90+ mph and just getting "unlucky" or he's hitting the ball 65 mph and is struggling to really square balls up regularly can help distinguish a little more between struggle and random variation. Teams use those sorts of things all the time. Especially for pitchers. Extension, arm angle/release point height, velo, spin rate, etc. are all used to track a pitcher throughout a game to help make decisions. Opponent exit velos can get wrapped in too as they go through the lineup multiple times and you can see if guys are squaring him up better. It plays into the short leashes that we see on starters now as we don't have to rely on a managers "gut" as much to know when a guy is tiring but can see his arm slot getting lower, his spin fading, and his extension shortening in real time from pitch to pitch.

I think they'll all be allowed to go 80+ right from the start. With a shortened spring training last year Joe Ryan still came out throwing 70 (4 innings), 82 (6), 85 (6), 90 (7) pitches per start in his 4 April starts. Gray threw 76 (4.2) in his first start, but was hurt in his 2nd. Paddack went 73 (4), 71 (5), 87 (5.2), 81 (5.1) in his first 4. That's an average of 79 pitches, and 5.1 innings, per start in April for the 3 guys who were any good in the rotation last year. If they were at basically 80 pitches and 5 innings per start coming off a shortened spring training I hope they can do at least that coming off a full spring training. I don't care what they "owe" Maeda, but you're never signing a guy to an incentive heavy deal again if your stance is "we don't owe you anything and will cost you nearly $10 million by not allowing you any chance at all to reach those incentives." Edit: Sorry, I skipped over the Ober part. But I wouldn't be upset with that Ober plan. He's a really hard decision for me. I don't want to lose another season of his to injury, but I also think he's a good pitcher that would be really nice to have in the rotation. Tough spot for him and Winder for me. Talent, but just can't seem to stay healthy. Canterino is already fully in my "move him to the pen" book, which sucks. But hopefully him and Duran can form a filthy 1-2 punch for the next half decade plus once Canterino is healthy again.

You can't put a guy with Maeda's contract in the pen. At least not at the start of the year. And I trust Lopez. At least enough to start the year with him as my closer. Not saying you have to trust him, but somebody trusts him.

Then what was Maeda's role in the pen? You want 2 long relief guys? I'm not saying that's a terrible idea, just curious. I'd hope the rotation is stable enough this year (and I think they will be) that there shouldn't be a need for 2 long guys in the pen, and an extra 1 inning 6th, 7th, or 8th inning guy would be more valuable. I expect this rotation to get through 5 or 6 innings almost every night based on talent (injuries obviously can screw a game up quick). With 8 pen guys and a rotation that is getting 5 or 6 a night I'd only have 1 long guy in the pen, and mine would actually be Ober (I don't trust him to hold up under a starter's workload) or Pagan (for 2 inning spurts). My spot starter would be the AAA rotation. If/when Ober gets hurt, or is put into the rotation because 1 of them gets hurt, Winder would be first in line (as of now) to take Ober's spot in Minneapolis as the long guy. Rotation: Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda Pen: Duran, Jax, Lopez, Thielbar, Alcala, Moran, Pagan, Ober AAA Rotation: Varland, SWR, Winder, Balazovic, Headrick/Dobnak if Headrick starts at AA Pen: Megill, Sands, Henriquez, Coulombe, De Leon, Dobnak, Ortega, Shulfer That's how I'd have it as of today. The Twins are going to need 10+ starters this year. Like every other team. I'm not worried about forcing the young guys in the rotation to start the season. If they average 25 starts (feels reasonable) between the starters that's 125 starts. That leaves 37 starts for Ober, Varland, SWR, and Winder. Almost 10 starts a guy I think is plenty to get their feet wet and "establish themselves" for 2024. A Paddack style blown elbow 6 starts into the season for someone opens 26 more starts for those young guys. I think the Twins have their rotation setup perfectly to try to win in 2023, and get young guys experience.

Which I don't have a real problem with, except you switched Winder in for him who hasn't ever been as good as Alcala. Seemingly simply because Winder is 26. Alcala has 100% "earned" a spot over Winder on the opening day roster if you're trying to win baseball games.

I mean Alcala is "only" 27 so not sure why he'd be the one to go to AAA over guys like Winder and Varland. I think the expectation should absolutely be a division title and winning some playoff games. Whether those 3 are in the minors or not. They have 4 veterans + Ryan in the rotation. I don't get why you'd move any of them just because Ober, Winder, and Varland are 27, 26, and 25. None of those guys are good enough prospects to make a hole in the rotation for. And 2 of them have a lot to do to show they can stay even reasonably healthy for a year. Ober is the only one I see as having a real gripe about being sent to AAA because of his MLB performance, but he's never stayed healthy in pro ball. Those other 2 are exactly what teams look for in depth pieces because they know they're going to need at least 10 starters on the year.

Maeda isn't going to start the year in the pen, he's in the rotation. More likely Ober starts the year in AAA, or the pen. And I'd be surprised if they had Winder in the big league pen and not the AAA rotation instead of Alcala in the big league pen. But I can also see why they aren't looking to bring in another arm. Although, I'd like to bring in Chafin if it's possible. I'm not sold on Thielbar maintaining his production at 36 and would prefer Moran starts in AAA (even though I think he can be a stud) with Thielbar and Chafin in the bigs to provide a little more depth. But I'd be good waiting until I get Paddack on the 60-day to try to sign Chafin.

Wil Myers and Adam Duvall are the 2 names that come to mind with a similar type profile as righties. Myers certainly not the same defender as Gallo, and doesn't play CF ever, while Duvall doesn't play 1B. Duvall 4 years older, Myers 3 years older. Myers a little better BA and not as much power, but still tons of Ks and BBs. Duvall a little better BA and good power, but no BBs and medium Ks. I think they'd be the best comps Gallo as righties as FAs this offseason. Myers signed for 7.5M in Cinci, Duvall for 7M in Boston.

I think that's a big part of the argument for many of us that aren't super upset with him being here and Arraez not. It's not just about being at the plate. I'd take a lineup of Gallo's over a lineup of Arraez's 10 out of 10 times because Gallo is faster, a significantly better fielder, has a significantly better arm, and hits for significantly better power. Arraez is significantly better at his "hit" tool. I'll take the guy with the edge in 4 of the 5 "core tools" of baseball over the guy with the 1 tool that is just more entertaining to watch in the batter's box. A team of Gallo clones would beat a team of Arraez clones. Probably by a pretty good margin, too.

If you didn't like him in Texas I don't think you're going to like him in MN. I'm not saying you should or shouldn't, just that you won't. To Hunter's point, he's not going to change. According to the baseball industry Joey Gallo was a well above average player in Texas. But he plays a style of game (with the bat) that's not enjoyable for a lot of fans (me included). I look forward to watching a competent/smart defender and base runner. I don't look forward to the Ks and .200 BA. I think you can survive with 1 of those guys in the order so I'm not all that upset with this Gallo deal. I like to look at "tools." Gallo has 3.5 in my view. Power. Glove. Arm. And .5 for speed. He's awful at the hitting tool, though. And that's a really bad thing to be bad at when it comes to entertainment. I want a team with as many "tools" as possible, and hopefully the ones each guy is missing aren't the same. You need some balance. But it's also really hard to lose a guy like Arraez who's simply more fun to watch hit because his 1 tool is his hit tool (I'll give him .5 for his glove at 1B). But there's much more to being a baseball player than just the hit tool so my non-emotional side would say Gallo brings more to the team. But I'd much rather watch Arraez in that batter's box. It's all very stressful for my brain and heart.

I wasn't excited about Sabato as a pick because I don't like 2 tool players in the 1st round, but he absolutely slaughtered college baseball and it's crazy to see him completely incapable of hitting in the low minors. I'd bet some batted ball data, and things like that, had the Twins outsmarting themselves on that pick. Really disappointed to see how he's progressed. I'd put Sands in the pen as well. It's getting difficult for the Twins on the starter prospect front, though. With Ober's inability to stay healthy, Winder's shoulder concerns, Canterino's Rice problem, Sands and Henriquez both looking like better reliever options than starter options, Enlow not finding his footing yet, and Balazovic falling apart last year that grouping really took a hit. It could be really good for the pen if Duran, Canterino, Jax, Ober, Winder, Sands, Alcala, Moran, Henriquez, etc. all find a foothold there, but that really puts a lot on Ryan, Varland, SWR, Prielipp, and Raya becoming the rotation in the next couple years. Or we just keep on the "trade for 2 years of a starter" train, but that's less than ideal I think.

I certainly don't think that's a ridiculous take by any means. I'd like Polanco between Buxton and Correa to limit the number of lefty relievers he sees. He's nowhere near as good against lefties as he is against righties, and the bottom half of the Twins lineup is mostly lefties. Most teams are only carrying 1 lefty reliever these days due to the 3 batter minimum rule so I'd guess they'd use their lefties there and want to switch back to a righty when they get to Buxton and/or Correa. So putting Polanco between them helps his matchup situation. And then Buxton's speed (agreed he won't steal much, but he's still really fast running around the bases) in front of Polanco and Correa helps them score runs on fewer hits. He scores from first on a double or 2nd on a single more often than those 2 so he can take advantage of non-homerun power better than they can. But, like you said, reasonable minds can differ, and I wouldn't be calling for Rocco's head if he hits them Polanco-Correa-Buxton. Would be nice to have Julien-Martin in the 8-9 holes at some point to be on base in front of those 3, and have Martin provide a little speed. But I don't want to be too greedy about things 😉

I don't know if by "same path" you mean being injured or not performing, but I hope it's not not performing. Because I feel like that is a perception thing. 66% of 1st round picks make it to the majors. Not succeed in the majors, simply ever play in the majors. The percentage obviously goes down from there. I don't know what you consider "top picks," but here's all the guys this FO has picked in the top 3 rounds: Royce Lewis, Brent Rooker, Landon Leach, Blayne Enlow, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Keoni Cavaco, Matt Wallner, Matt Canterino, Spencer Steer, Aaron Sabato, Alerick Soularie, Chase Petty, Noah Miller, Steve Hajjar, Cade Povich, Brooks Lee, Connor Prielipp, Tanner Schobel. That's 19 total players. 12 hitters. 7 pitchers. They've had 6 of them reach the majors to this point. All 6 are hitters. So half the hitters they've taken in the top 3 rounds have reached the majors to this point. That's above average to start with, but then you consider that only 10 of these guys were drafted before 2020 and the numbers are even more impressive. Only 4 (unless I missed 1 or 2 in my counting) players from the 2020 draft have debuted to this point so expecting the Twins to have had any is pretty unreasonable. So they've had 6 of 10 players in the top 3 rounds of their first 3 drafts debut. Remember, only 66% of 1st round picks ever debut, let alone rounds 2 and 3. The only hitter they took in the 2016-2019 drafts (in the top 3 rounds) that hasn't debuted is Cavaco. Him and Sabato are looking like pretty big misses, but overall the Twins have actually done a pretty incredible job at drafting and developing early round hitters. They could certainly use Lewis and Larnach and Lee staying healthy and becoming stars to really make things look good, but compared to the rest of the league they're doing quite well. And they really need to figure out the frontline pitching situation. Need to start churning a couple of those types out. But the narrative that they've struggled with drafting and developing appears to be based off some really high expectations that don't match the reality of the baseball draft.

I think it's a solid idea. They seem real confident in their ability to turn questionable defensive catchers into solid catchers. Although, with the new bases they may want to get away from the 1 leg down style of catching so they can throw some people out. But he's got a grade 70 arm so it'd be real nice to have that behind the plate.

Best player available. Always and forever. Unless it's a high school arm at the top of the draft. They fail far too often. But at pick 5 they should be going best player available and not overthinking anything.

Interesting idea. They would need to invest in a wrist guard and/or get him to back off the plate so he quits getting hit by pitches. And they'd need to be really sure he'll stick behind the plate. His arm is certainly good enough, but lots of talk on scouting reviews that he's too stiff to stick back there and will be moved to RF or 3B in which case he's less valuable to the Twins.

I don't care about "leadoff hitter" or whatever mold people used to put there. That's why I'd put Buxton there. I want my 3 best hitters in the 1-3 spots everyday, and I think those are Buxton, Polanco, and Correa (in some order) so I want them 1-3. The rest of our guys are slightly above average to slightly below average, although, some provide hope for being more and then things could change. The leadoff spot is guaranteed to leadoff 1 time every game. They have so much video on pitchers it's crazy, and I think the idea that a guy let's the on deck hitter see the pitcher a bunch in inning 1 is severely overstated now. My theory is to get my best hitters up as many times as possible.

I'd rather just put Ober in the pen than trade him for May. Let alone give up Canterino (I think he'll be in the Twins pen sometime in 2024) on top of that.

The question to me is why he's dominant, and then his ability to find another way to be dominant if his current way wouldn't work in the rotation. Was he dominant in the pen because he could just let it rip for 20 or 30 pitches and his stuff was so good nothing else really mattered? If that's the case then you have to worry about him not being dominant as a starter in the minors even though he wasn't throwing a ton of innings per start. Then the question is could he improve his control, pitch sequencing, etc. to improve his numbers as a starter and become the ace we'd hope for. I don't know the answers to those questions so I don't have a real strong opinion on him being a starter or staying in the pen. I don't think him wanting to be a starter should mean the Twins put him back in the rotation, though. It's their jobs to put players in the best positions to succeed, not just put them where they want to be. You don't think most relievers want to be starters? Don't think every middle relief guy wants to be a closer? Don't think infielders all want to play SS and hit 3rd? I'd also continue to use him in the fireman role he was in last year. He'd be the guy I bring in for all the high leverage situations, and to face the heart of the other team's lineup. I think it's just as hard to find a guy who can excel in that role as it is to find a guy who can lock down the 9th in a 1 run game.

It's crazy how different this lineup could look throughout the year. Opening day (assuming KC is starting a righty which is highly likely): Buxton Polanco Correa Gallo or Kirilloff or Larnach or Gordon or Kepler depending who had the best spring Miranda Gallo or Kirilloff or Larnach or Gordon or Kepler depending on who had the 2nd best spring Gallo or Kirilloff or Larnach or Gordon or Kepler depending on who had the 3rd best spring Vazquez Gallo or Kirilloff or Larnach or Gordon or Kepler depending on who had the 4th best spring Bench: Jeffers, Farmer, Taylor, Gallo or Kirilloff or Larnach or Gordon or Kepler depending who had the 5th best spring Reasoning: I'm a believer in getting your best bats as many ABs as possible throughout the year. Leadoff hitter is only guaranteed to lead off 1 inning so I'm not as concerned about getting a prototypical guy there. Polanco between Buxton and Correa is hopefully a way to get him to see more righties than lefties as he's much better against righties and the other team is likely to have their lefties saved for the lefties in the 2nd half of the order. Who gets pinch hit for, and when, will be an interesting situation to watch. Even their willingness to pinch hit their 2nd catcher on any given day. Do they trust Farmer to step behind the plate if needed due to injury late in a game? Hopefully all the lefty bats means Rocco et al will play the hot hand as often as possible. But with injuries and young guys knocking on the door that lineup could look vastly different by June/July/August.