chpettit19

I'm curious about this. I agree that where they play isn't really relevant in a vacuum, but is your goal simply to have an even number of righties and lefties in the lineup every day (plus the SH Polanco) no matter who the starter for the other team is, or what their bullpen makeup is like?

Yeah, if the Twins are leading the division and trade any players who are playing well off the major league roster I'm going to be pissed. And I know a number of other fans who would be as well. I don't get why any fan would want that to happen. I don't care if all of SWR/Varland/Balazovic/Winder are "proving they are ready for a rotation spot" if Gray and Maeda are pitching well and the team is winning. There's never a situation that I'd be good with trading veterans who are contributing to a successful season. An IL stint here and there will provide those young guys opportunities throughout the year to get their feet wet. Whether they're ready or not. That's the nature of the beast. Not to mention the option of putting the young guys in the pen down the stretch like plenty of teams do. They'll carry 13 pitchers all season. That means there's 13 spots for those 4 guys to get opportunities to throw major league innings. Unless you're suggesting all 13 guys on the opening day roster are going to stay healthy and productive all season long. What happens when you trade Maeda and Gray at the end of July and Mahle goes down in his first start of August? Then Ober strains his groin again in early September. Now all 4 of those youngsters really better be ready because they're going to need to carry the rotation the rest of the way to the division title and into the playoffs. No, thank you. I'll hold onto my veterans on a winning team. The Twins have Ryan and Ober under control through 2027. They have those other 4 into 2030 and beyond. Paddack through 2025. Mahle is a good extension candidate. Prielipp, Raya, and Festa following relatively closely on the SWR/Varland/Balazovic/Winder quartet, and 1 or 2 of them should be ready in the next 2 or 3 years. While you can never have enough pitching, and adding to the pipeline is always good, there doesn't seem to be a dramatic need to sell veterans in the middle of a successful season when you have 3 rotation spots spoken for for the next 2 years, and a reasonable extension candidate for a 4th spot. I don't see any reason at all to force open 2 rotation spots in the middle of a division race simply to get young guys time. None at all. You'd be driving the "pipeline is a myth" bandwagon based on the team not being willing to force open multiple rotation spots during a successful season. I don't get that logic at all. Again, there's 13 pitching slots, and injuries, on the big league roster, so you don't need to send off 40% of the rotation to give the youngsters a shot. But I'd be driving the "fire the FO in the middle of the season" bandwagon if they traded off successful pitchers in the middle of a successful season simply to get young guys a shot.

Me knowing it was Ryan allowed me to know his starts were low because he debuted 2 years later, and missed time with covid as opposed to injuries like I know Lopez has struggled with before last year. So not exactly a blind ranking for me.

I'd go 2, 3, 5, 1, 4, 6. But I also know who the guys are so am fighting a little extra bias. Your order is Gray, Maeda, Lopez, Mahle, Ryan, Ober. Mine was Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Lopez, Mahle, Ober. I'm into WHIP and SO9, but also like the ERA+ to give me a bit better idea of a comparison of where the ERAs were at with regard to the environment they pitched in. The rotation (+Lopez) is truly Gray and a bunch of the same guy. It's why I'm not excited about a potential Lopez trade. He's not a ceiling raiser. He's the same guy (with lower Ks) than the other 4 dudes we already have after Gray.

How would you order these 6 guys? Pitcher 1: 84 GS (5.4 IP/GS), 3.91 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.68 FIP, 1.177 WHIP, 8.8 SO9 Pitcher 2: 92 GS (5.3 IP/GS), 3.39 ERA, 133 ERA+, 3.53 FIP, 1.147 WHIP, 10.2 SO9 Pitcher 3: 58 GS (5.6 IP/GS), 3.97 ERA, 106 ERA+, 3.80 FIP, 1.081 WHIP, 10.0 SO9 Pitcher 4: 90 GS (5.3 IP/GS), 4.27 ERA, 108 ERA+, 4.06 FIP, 1.243 WHIP, 9.9 SO9 Pitcher 5: 32 GS (5.4 IP/GS), 3.63 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.90 FIP, 1.054 WHIP, 9.4 SO9 Pitcher 6: 31 GS (4.8 IP/GS), 3.82 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.94 FIP, 1.146 WHIP, 8.9 SO9

In what way does Lopez "simply rate higher than any current Twins starter?" Here's stats from 2019-2022 for 6 starters (Twins likely starting 5 currently, plus Lopez). How would you rank them? Pitcher 1: 84 GS (5.4 IP/GS), 3.91 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.68 FIP, 1.177 WHIP, 8.8 SO9, 7.8 bWAR Pitcher 2: 92 GS (5.3 IP/GS), 3.39 ERA, 133 ERA+, 3.53 FIP, 1.147 WHIP, 10.2 SO9, 12.6 bWAR Pitcher 3: 58 GS (5.6 IP/GS), 3.97 ERA, 106 ERA+, 3.80 FIP, 1.081 WHIP, 10.0 SO9, 3.3 bWAR Pitcher 4: 90 GS (5.3 IP/GS), 4.27 ERA, 108 ERA+, 4.06 FIP, 1.243 WHIP, 9.9 SO9, 8.7 bWAR Pitcher 5: 32 GS (5.4 IP/GS), 3.63 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.90 FIP, 1.054 WHIP, 9.4 SO9, 2.6 bWAR Pitcher 6: 31 GS (4.8 IP/GS), 3.82 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.94 FIP, 1.146 WHIP, 8.9 SO9, 2.1 bWAR

I wouldn't even give up Larnach in that deal. That's still an overpay. 5 years of Larnach is worth more than 2 years of Lopez. I'm willing to throw Pagan into any deal. But 2 years of Kepler for 2 years of Lopez is a pretty close match. Kepler costs a little more, and is older, so it's not crazy to think the Twins would have to throw in a little more, but certainly not someone of Larnach's control, upside, and proximity to the majors. The Marlins tried to get Gleyber Torres for Lopez at the deadline last year. The Yankees said no. Max has more WAR than Torres from 2020-2022. Torres is younger, but costs more (both have 2 years of control). The Twins should not be giving up any of their young, MLB ready players for Lopez. None of them. He's simply not worth that.

If Arraez can help net a frontline starter it's a deal you have to do. If Arraez can't get you any better than Pablo Lopez it's a deal you can't do. That seems to be the Twins thoughts on things so I have faith this saga will play out in a reasonable way. I have been surprised before, though. But if they stick to that thought process I'm happy.

Pagan for Adell? Done and done. Alexy, Sands, Celestino, Gallo, Kepler. If one of those 6 guys can fetch you Adell (plus a flier for someone like Gallo or Kepler) then I'd do it. My concern with Adell is that, despite top of the charts speed, he's a terrible defender. The combination of power and speed is definitely an intriguing one for special upside. But if you can't develop the hit and field tools you end up with Lewis Brinson, Keon Broxton, or any of the other guys who could run real fast and hit the ball real far, but couldn't play baseball. Since Adell requires a 40-man spot it limits my desire for him. But there's worst things to go after than sky high potential.

Wasn't the rumor Arraez OR Kepler? Arraez AND Kepler is a massive overpay for Pablo Lopez.

Like so much involving the Twins these days, this all depends on the health, and production, of Larnach, Kirilloff, Martin, and Lewis. If those 4 guys can stay healthy, and produce, Gordon becomes expendable. If they can't he's more important. I think the Twins should be calling around and seeing what's available on the trade market, and what the costs are. But there doesn't feel like a bunch of great deals to be made out there for this team. I'm not a Pablo Lopez fan so a deal for him doesn't intrigue me. I don't think the Twins have the pieces to make a trade for an actual ace feasible (I'm not trading Lee, Lewis, or Rodriguez). I can see the appeal of bringing in another mid-rotation starter to just make them a little deeper to cover for injuries, but I don't think they should be getting into any bidding wars over those guys. Gordon or Kepler straight up for another mid-rotation guy? Ok. I can get on board and see the logic there. But if this is the squad they roll into the season with I'm good with that, too.

I don't know that it'd be a done deal, but only because the Twins seem to value Kepler more than the average fan. His WAR numbers are nice. But I agree with the general idea here. Although, I also think Arraez is valued higher by fans than FOs around the league.

Kepler for Lopez is fine with me. Literally no other hitter on our 40-man that I'd trade for Pablo Lopez. Well Celestino, but I can't imagine they'd consider Celestino a bigger bat than Kepler. But those are the only 2 hitters on the 40-man I'd even consider for someone who'd come in as our 5th best starter.

Fire Cashman! Clearly has no idea what he's doing.

To me, Kepler and Larnach would be a massive overpay for Lopez. With the Yankees turning down sending Gleyber Torres to Miami in exchange for Lopez last year we know at least 1 team didn't find him worthy of a guy who's had 4.9 bWAR and 4.3 fWAR from 2020-2022. Max Kepler has had 5.2 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR from 2020-2022. Torres and Kepler, like Lopez, have 2 years of team control left. Torres will be paid either 10.2 or 9.7 million next year depending on how his arbitration hearing goes. Max Kepler will make 8.5. Torres will get a raise on that 2023 contract in his last year of arbitration in 2024 while Max will be on a 10 million team option. Torres is younger than Max, and had a better year last year, but I don't know why we should think Lopez is worth much more than Kepler at all. We have real world evidence that the league doesn't seem to think he's worth more than that. Edited to add: And after the Yankees turned down that trade Lopez went on to have 2 really bad months with a 4.61 ERA in August, and 4.24 in September. His value certainly didn't go up after that trade was turned down. Oh, and his ERAs in June and July were 5.34 and 4.65. He's simply not a great pitcher. Thus I'd put him 5th in our current rotation simply because Ober can't stay healthy.

Kepler and Nowlin (or someone else in that 20-30 organizational prospect range) would be my offer for Lopez. I wouldn't go any higher than that. I think Lopez would be the Twins #5 starter this year, and only higher than Ober because I don't trust Ober to throw more than 100 innings. Cabrera or Luzardo? I'd deal Arraez+others for them. They have real upside and real control left. Not sure exactly what kind of package I'd be willing to ship out for them (I wouldn't trade Lewis, Lee, or Rodriguez for them), but I'd certainly be open to a package centered around Arraez and Martin for someone with their frontline potential and team control.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-rumors-trades-and-signings?t=trades-and-transactions "Miami reportedly asked about outfielder Max Kepler or infielder Luis Arraez in return." Interesting quote in here for everyone claiming Kepler has no value and/or Lopez is some super expensive piece the Twins would need to trade young, high-end prospects for.

Really like this deal. Hopefully Paddack is on a rehab assignment by about July and can be a long relief guy for the Twins to end the season and start knocking the rust off. Then in 2024 he would have a real shot at claiming a rotation spot in ST.

Fyi, he's on the 40-man so no invite needed. He'll already be there.

For sure. Fangraphs mentions his speed and arm strength so at least he seems to have athleticism to stay at SS. They also praised his approach at the plate which is always something I look for with those youngsters. Plenty of them can go out into the backfields and hit the ball 450 ft in BP, but can they read a pitch and do it in a game? Certainly not betting my house on any of these kids, but there's some intriguing things in the fangraphs scouting report. I prefer their reports because they tend to be a little more realistic than MLB who tends to try to make everyone sound like future stars (which then is a shot at them not praising Chivilli more). Such a crapshoot with kids this age, though.

Fangraphs has Chivilli much higher than MLB.com. Top 10 Latin America player. Like you said it's real challenging to rate these young guys, but they make Chivilli sound pretty exciting.

I don't trust his knees. To me he's the kind of guy you wait and see on. Let him go through the arbitration process since they still have control for a number of years. His knees are struggling in his early 20s, I'm not trusting him to hold up into his 30s.

Agree to disagree on Torres. You named a whole bunch of numbers from pre-2020 Torres. He has a 104 OPS+ since 2020. 4.9 total bWAR since then. Gleyber Torres is nowhere near the player you're trying to suggest he is. He was moved to 2B because he can't play SS. He had 2.7 fWAR in 2022. Gordon had 1.5. Torres has 4.3 fWAR since 2020. That's a 1.4 WAR player. Again, Gordon had 1.5 last year. And Gordon has 5 years of control left. Your OPS numbers are just factually incorrect. He's never had an OPS over 1.000 in any season. Never. Him having an OPS over 1.000 in 3 minor league games in 2021 isn't him having an OPS over 1.000 for that season. He had a .697 OPS in 127 games in the majors that year. Him having an OPS over 1.000 for 7 games in low A in 2014 isn't him having an OPS over 1.000 for that season. He had a .826 OPS in rookie and low A combined that year. Him having an OPS over 1.000 in 18 AFL games in 2016 isn't him having an OPS over 1.000 for that season. He had a .775 OPS that year in high A. He's also never had an OPS over .900 for a season. I mean you're flat out making stuff up. In 2018 he had a .903 OPS in 17 games between high A and AAA during a rehab stint. He had an OPS of .820 in 123 MLB games that year. Since 2019, both of their career years, Max Kepler has more bWAR, and is only 6 points of OPS+ lower than Torres. Kepler had 2.0 fWAR last year. He's had 5.4 since 2020. That's 1.8 per season. And people are screaming that he needs to get traded cuz he's basically useless on a playoff hopeful team. He's been better than Torres for the last 3 years. So, yeah, I'm going to stick with Torres not being any sort of star, and Lopez not being all that expensive of a commodity.

Multiple reports that there was a deal the Yankees turned down at the deadline last year. It was Gleyber Torres and Oswaldo Cabrera for Pablo Lopez and Miguel Rojas. Cabrera is an ok, not great prospect who was MLB ready. Rojas was just traded for Jacob Amaya. Amaya is an ok, not great prospect who is ready. So the Marlins felt Lopez was worth Gleyber Torres. The Yankees thought Lopez was worth less than Gleyber Torres. Gleyber Torres may be a "big name" because he played in NY, but he's not some star. Torres had a 114 OPS+ last year. Nick Gordon was at 113. Pablo Lopez then went on to have an ERA of 4.61 in August and 4.24 in September. He's now got less team control than he did at the deadline, and Gordon has much more than Torres. I don't get why people think Lopez is some high priced commodity. He's not.

Ok? I mean I literally gave you the stats. League average for a runner on 3B with less than 2 outs scoring was 50.9% last year. The Twins scored them 52.6% of the time. Only 8 MLB teams scored them at a higher rate than the Twins. Your eye test is emotional. Them not scoring those guys is frustrating. So your brain logs those frustrations and gives them higher priority than the times where they do score the run because your expectation is that they score the run so there's not as strong of an emotional response as the frustrations of them not scoring. It's why teams use stats on things like this and not an eye test. In 2022 the Twins had 287 runners on 3B with less than 2 outs. 151 of them scored. I mean if your point is simply that they don't score them when there's 0 outs that feels a little narrow of a stat to care about. If the point is about the runner scoring at all then the Twins were above average at it whether your eyes believe it or not. It's definable and a fact.