chpettit19

Minor league deal with an opt out at the end of May if he hasn't been called up to that point.

Lewis would be #1 on my list, and the starting RFer for the Twins the second he's healthy this year. Well maybe a week in AAA to get his timing down. I'd have him as the starting RFer, and primary Buxton fill-in (replacing Taylor), moving forward. It's fascinating to me that people think the straight line running, with very occasional impacts with the wall, is so much more dangerous for a knee than the lateral movements with full speed sprint into immediate stop and twist actions of a SS would be. Do we see a lot of ACL injuries on guys running straight and just falling down grasping their knees or guys in the middle of a cut and they crumple in a heap?

I believe he's already doing baseball activities. I believe the last interview of his I saw he said he was starting to hit. But I could be wrong. I don't know what the rehab process looks like, but I'm pretty sure he's already doing baseball things. It's just a matter of how much more building up he needs to do to really let it rip everyday. Or my overly optimistic brain has made this all up and he's not actually doing baseball things yet. But I'm pretty sure that's what I saw.

He was also planning on playing in the WBC, as mentioned above, which means he didn't just show up yesterday and started chucking max effort fastballs. He's weeks ahead of a normal schedule as he was building up for the WBC. I'm not overly concerned. As long as, as you said, he's not out there throwing 102 non-stop.

I think their depth is Balazovich, Coulombe, Dobnak, Henriquez, Ober, Paddack (at mid-season), Sanchez, Sands, Varland, Winder, and SWR. I know they're stretching most of them out as starters, but that doesn't mean they'd skip over them and go down to the next group as their first call ups. Or that they'll all succeed as starters and not be shifted to the pen pretty early. They went to those types of guys in the pen last year so I'm not sure why we think they wouldn't do it this year. To me he's not better than any of those guys. He's in the De Leon, Enlow, Headrick, Lawyerson, Murphy, Ortega, Schulfer, Stewart group. Which, by my count, puts him somewhere in the 20s on the list of best pitcher options. They'll need that many throughout the year for sure. But I'm not forcing my 25th (or whatever he is) best pitcher onto my opening day roster just because I have an open 40-man spot. I'd rather take a shot at younger waiver claims with much more upside. I'd sign any of those guys you listed. To minor league deals. I'm not crossing my fingers and hoping washed up vets who aren't in my top 20 options can smoke and mirrors their way through the first month or 2 without blowing a handful of games for me, or only being willing to use them in mop up duty that really limits the usefulness of a roster spot. If Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Duran, Jax, Lopez, Alcala, Moran, Ober, Pagan, Thielbar, Balazovich, Headrick, Henriquez, Megill, Paddack, Sands, Varland, Winder, SWR, Coulombe, Dobnak, and Sanchez aren't enough to cover the vast majority of important innings for the Twins they're doomed and Brad Hand isn't going to save them. I listed 25 guys there. I don't care so much about starter vs reliever in terms of pitching depth in season. Most of the guys used beyond your top 15-20 are up for very short stints, and get very little work, so a AAA starter can be called up for a week in the pen if he's the best arm available. Hand wouldn't be in my top 20. The top 20 pitchers for the Twins last year covered 88% of the Twins innings. And that's with losing 2 starters in their first 5 starts with the team (Paddack and Mahle). So the other 18 guys they used (2 were position players) covered just 12% of the innings. 165 total innings amongst 18 guys. That's less than 10 innings a guy. I'm not forcing someone I don't see as one of their top 20 pitchers onto the opening day roster because I may need 10 innings out of someone of his talent level.

He's not as good as Moran is right now. And maybe that's the core of our disagreement here. Brad Hand isn't good enough to demand a roster spot on a team that's trying to win the division. The Twins need to bring their best roster to Kansas City, not the ones without options left (unless they're the same talent level). You build in Hand's option by signing him to a minor league deal and he's the guy who gets called up when he's the best option to be called up. Putting a guy who may be your 50th best player on the opening day roster simply because you're going to need more pitchers during the year makes no sense to me. And maybe you think Hand is as good as Moran and that's why you're in favor of that kind of move. I don't think Hand is good enough.

Welcome to Twins Daily! I was at the game when Park hit it into the restaurant in center. Very impressive stuff to see live.

If he's not good enough to be on your major league roster who cares if you win the bid? Of course they prefer a big league deal, but doesn't mean they're worth a big league deal. But if you're not going to carry them on your major league roster on opening day giving them that roster spot for spring training is completely useless. And they're smart enough to know that, so it being a major league deal isn't the boost you may think it is in their bid. Brad Hand and his agent can look at the Twins roster and know he's likely not making the opening day roster as a 3rd lefty out of the pen. Getting a ceremonial 40-man spot for a month (at max) doesn't mean anything to him. All it really does is take his control away when he gets DFA'd and put on waivers. A minor league deal with an opt out at least gets him paid and a some control on his future. Waiting for an injury to a lefty on a team without a good replacement may even be a better option for him if he's so set on getting a major league deal. Signing a major league deal knowing the most likely outcome is a DFA in a month likely isn't all that intriguing.

Yes, but why would you sign the veteran to a major league deal when he's so easily passed up for the 40th man on the roster? If he's the first guy you'd cut it means you wouldn't have him on your 26-man roster. In that case signing him to a major league deal is a bad idea since you'd just have to DFA him at the end of spring anyways. That's kind of the point here. Signing a veteran to a major league deal to fill your 40th spot is bad roster management. You sign that guy to a minor league deal with an opt out date so the player can leave in May or June or whatever if he hasn't been called up yet. You don't tie yourself to a major league contract for a guy who isn't one of your 26 best players, and doesn't have options, if you're trying to win a division that year.

Hey, I didn't say they shouldn't try. Just that it'd be hard.

For those curious about AK's wrist (I think that's really all of us) here's a video of him taking some cuts a couple days ago! They look way more comfortable than the swings we saw right before his season ended last year. So hopefully the swing stays this way and we finally get to see what he can do in a full season! On a side note, the sound of the crack of the bat is so refreshing! Love this time of year.

The bolded part is simply wrong. He has seasons of 193, 215.2, 216, 206.1, 175.2, 187, 206.1, and 175.2 under his belt. The year before he came to the Twins he threw 153.2 innings which would've lead the 2022 Twins staff. There were actually only 62 pitchers who threw at least 150 innings in the majors last year. He's certainly shown the ability to throw 150+ innings in both Japan and the US.

They've stated that there was nothing structurally wrong with Mahle's shoulder, so nothing was needed to "repair it." He went to Driveline this winter, and made some adjustments to his training program based off that visit. I believe Falvey's exact quote was "he feels fantastic" for whatever you think that's worth.

While I agree with your general stance here, it's going to be hard for them to use Legumina in the pen, or trade him for pen help, since they traded him about 4 months ago for Kyle Farmer.

Fastball location, and spin efficiency, improvements could be huge for him. He's got the stuff that makes him worth holding onto and seeing what he becomes, but the performance that says he shouldn't be expected to be a big part of a competing bullpen until he shows he can use that stuff effectively.

I think it matters if he gets a minor league or major league contract. A minor league contract means he isn't on the 40-man until they decide he's the best option and call him up. If he signs a major league deal he's automatically on the 26-man or playing the waive and wait game if they want to send him down early. Those open 40-man spots are useful and shouldn't be given to someone who may not be good enough to be on the 26-man on opening day. Especially if they don't have any options. Guys will get waived during the spring and having open 40-man spots to take a shot at someone much younger than Hand is a better use of those spots, in my opinion.

I'd certainly offer him a minor league deal if he's willing to take that. I think he's cooked so wouldn't be excited to offer him a major league deal. But I'm a pretty big Moran believer. And many teams are only carrying 1 lefty now. The days of the LOOGY are gone. It's the time of straight up relievers now. You simply have to be able to get both lefties and righties out now. The 3 batter minimum, and teams using data to make decisions more than ever means it's far less likely you have room for anyone who is matchup specific in your pen. Matchups aren't about lefty vs righty anymore, they're about high vs low leverage.

The context in which he put up those numbers is important. That BA was 15th in that league for hitters with 190+ PAs. As a 19 year old. Of the 14 guys with higher BAs, 10 of them were at least 21 years old. And for a little extra fun, the Twins now have Jose Salas in their system and he was 19th on that list of BA at the age of 19 as well. Those 9 HRs were 19th best in the league. And he played only 47 games. The lowest games played of anyone in the league with more was 56 by a 22 year old 3B (not 19 year old CFer like Rodriguez). And that guy had 2 more HRs. That guy (his name is Damiano Palmegiani) was the only player in the league to hit more HRs/game played than Rodriguez. If that's not impressive to you I don't know what to tell you. Well I guess I could tell you that Rodriguez lead the league in HRs/AB. And was 4th in extra base hits per AB. As a 19 year old, up the middle player. I guess that's where the hype comes from.

He's young in terms of MLB experience, but he's not young in general. He's 27. To me that's not young in terms of his maturation process. 2017 was his only minor league season that showed any real patience at the plate. Otherwise, he's basically been a 5% BB% guy throughout his career. Which is the bottom 10% of the league type of stuff. It's certainly not impossible that he makes a major shift at the age of 27, but it's also not likely. It's far more likely that this is just the type of hitter he is, and he'll rely heavily on needing to maximize every ball he puts in play. Thus his sky high BABIP is one of the biggest keys to his success, and I don't think he can maintain top 10 in all of baseball BABIPs.

I hope you're right. His 7th percentile BB rate, 6th percentile chase rate, 28th percentile whiff rate, and 34th percentile K rate (along with the BABIP numbers I already pointed out) are indications to me that we should be worried about his performance going forward. He swings way more than the average hitter. He swings and misses way more than the average hitter. He chases pitches way more than the average hitter. The league knows that now. He swings at the first pitch significantly more than the average hitter. Over 40% of the time. Teams know that now. The league is going to adjust and he's going to have to adjust to them. He's going to see a bunch of pitches outside the zone moving forward and he's going to have to learn to lay off them or his numbers will absolutely go down significantly. It is hard to maintain big time production when you swing at everything, and you swing and miss a lot. I hope you're right. I hope there's no dip in his production at all. But I'm not betting on it, and there are very real reasons to have concerns about it. The key is going to be learning to lay off low breaking balls. I'm sure he's been made aware of that, and hopefully he's prepared to do it. Only time will tell.

And that's why he'd be on my opening day roster. But I don't think he maintains those numbers, let alone improves on them. The projection systems don't think he improves either. Fangraphs has him at a 99 wRC+ this year. I don't love projection systems in the grand scheme of things, but I think he's closer to the .240 hitter he was in 2021 than the .272 hitter he was in 2022. I'd love to be wrong, and he's earned a chance to prove me wrong. But I think the .253/.301/.399 triple slash fangraphs has him projected for is about right. In that case I'm taking Farmer and his glove with their predicted .245/.301/.365 triple slash. Gordon has earned a shot to prove last year wasn't fake, and he really can maintain that production, but I'm just not sold. Teams know he swings at everything now and he has to make real adjustments to just maintain his 2022 production. We'll see if he can do it. I hope he can. Just wouldn't bet on it. But that's why they play the games and don't just go on my estimations.

A 112 OPS+ built on a .344 BABIP. I find that to be a likely unsustainable number. In 2021, when his BABIP was .300 against righties he had an 88 OPS+. His BABIP against righties in 2022 was .364, and I think that's incredibly unlikely to be sustained. I mean that was 6th in baseball for hitters with at least 190 PAs against righties. Even a .344 BABIP would've put him top 25 in baseball. A .300 BABIP against righties is top 125ish. I think the .300 BABIP is a more likely outcome than the .344, let alone .364. You may not agree. But if he's got a .300 BABIP against righties I'm taking Farmer in an everyday role at 3B over Gordon.

Oh, I definitely agree that if you have to start them both and those are the only 2 positions available you start Gordon at 3B to keep Gallo in the OF, but in general if we're to the place where we're in an emergency need at 3B (which is what it'd take for me to put Gordon at 3B) then I think Gallo is still an option. I wouldn't want to put either of them there, though. He'd be a little better than Farmer with the bat against righties, but I'd take Farmer's glove and the slight dip at the plate over Gordon still. Gordon had an 88 OPS+ against righties in 2021. If he's back sub-90 OPS+ against righties he's not on my roster at all. Last year earned him a 4th/5th OF spot on the opening day roster for me, but I'm not one of the folks who think he should be given a ton of playing time early based on last year. He'd have to do a lot more proving in ST and April before he's getting a bunch of playing time if I were Rocco. But I'm not. Or at least you can't prove I am...

I'm not saying he was a gold glover at 3B, but there's multiple guys in the bigs playing 3B right now with those sorts of stats (Austin Riley being the worst of them). He moved off 3B because of Adrian Beltre and he's a better OFer so he stuck. But I don't know why we'd think Gordon is much better than that. Gordon was tied with Aaron Judge for the 30th in baseball for guys with at least 300 PA with a .340 BABIP last year. Correa had a .339. If you go to hitters with 400 PAs they move up to 21st in baseball. Into the top 20 in baseball at 450 PAs (Gordon had 443). There were only 15 qualified hitters in baseball last year who had a BABIP of .340 or higher. I find it very hard to believe Nick Gordon is going to BABIP .340 again. I hope I'm wrong, but it's very, very unlikely.

Why do you say that about Gallo? He moved off third because Texas had some guy named Adrian Beltre playing there when he came up. Then he started playing OF and was a gold glover there so he stuck there. He's every bit the option Gordon is at 3B. I mean isn't the obvious counter to Gordon being an IF option "if Nick Gordon could remotely handle playing in field he'd still be there?" He's only played in emergencies since he's been called up. I don't think Farmer is getting everyday reps against righties, but he's not going to sit on the bench for over 70% of the team's games simply because it's a righty on the mound. He's going to get starts against righties. Probably a pretty significant amount. I'm also not sold on Gordon's offense being all that great. I don't expect him to maintain the sky high BABIP he had last year. And when that BABIP drops he's toast, and his offensive production won't outweigh any defensive liability due to his complete lack of patience at the plate. You seem to feel differently about expectations for his bat moving forward, and that's fine. But I'm not sold on Gordon being good enough with the stick to play any corner position for any real amount of time.