chpettit19

Welcome to Twins Daily, and Twins territory! Thanks for this inside look into our next star!

Best prize there is!

If it makes you feel better, the Twins were 9th in baseball in scoring runners from 3B with less than 2 outs. 52.6%. League average was 50.9%. Their bigger problem was getting guys to 3B with less than 2 outs. They had that 287 times. League average was 299. They scored 151 runners from 3B with less than 2 outs, which was only 1 below the league average of 152. So when it came to driving those runs in they were pretty good at it, actually, but they just didn't get enough guys into that situation. The Dodgers only scored those guys at a 49.2% clip, but scored 185 runners that way because they had so many more (376) in the situation. I agree a healthy Kirilloff performing the way it looks like he would when healthy is the ideal candidate. Miranda was one of their best bats with runners in scoring position last year so I'd be happy with him in the 5 spot behind Kirilloff. In a perfect world, where everyone is healthy, and producing close to their expected level, my lineup vs righties would be: Buxton CF Polanco 2B Correa SS Kirilloff 1B Miranda 3B Larnach DH Gallo LF Vazquez C Kepler RF Lineup vs lefties: Buxton DH Solano 1B Correa SS Farmer 2B Miranda 3B Gallo LF Jeffers C Kepler RF Taylor CF

No, it's not a big difference at all. No team sees a big difference in the difficulty of their schedules with the new format. It really all balances out.

This chat got me curious about the Twins schedule differences. This is all based on last year's record. Games against teams with 90+ wins: Last year 50 This year 51 Games against teams between 80-90 wins: Last year 42 This year 38 Games against teams between 70-80 wins: Last year 16 This year 19 Games against teams between 60-70 wins: Last year 54 This year 51 Games against teams with fewer than 60 wins: Last year 0 This year 3 Games against teams .500 or better: Last year 92 This year 89 So their schedule last year actually would've been easier under this format. That doesn't really mean a whole heck of a lot since this is a totally new year, but I think it goes to the idea of the schedule change not automatically making the Twins schedule harder simply because they play in the AL Central. Edit to add: I probably should've said "old format vs new format" instead of "last year vs this year"

I think the schedule change is overstated. They're losing 6 games each against the Tigers and Royals. But they're getting to play 3 each against the Nationals, Pirates, and Reds. All of those teams finished worse than the Tigers and Royals last year, and the Twins didn't play. So they've made up 9 of the 12 games right there. It's not a straight swap of bad teams for good teams. They play the bad teams in their division less, but get to play the bad teams in other divisions more. The difference in schedule difficulty for the teams hit the hardest is like .008%. That's 1 win.

Whoa, whoa, whoa! I don't get a prize for being the biggest know it all with the most opinions on things?! @Brock Beauchamp don't you know how the internet works?! 😄

It can be true that the majority of baseball doesn't have a great recent track record with homegrown starters.

That's some solid pop, but man the word "elite" gets thrown around way too willy nilly these days.

Yes, boss.

Why? The argument was made that he only played 3B. He didn't. I don't know why there's a need to look at it any other way. It's nothing major. But the idea that he played his entire career at 1 position, and was never moved for any reason, is factually wrong.

Correa was going to move to 3B with the Mets, for what it's worth. I'm not sure what the Sano point is. He was a terrible defender everywhere they put him. They were just trying to hide him in places. That's totally fine. Reasonable people are allowed to disagree 🙂

Nobody called him a utility player. That's kind of my point. You said "can you imagine Eddie Mathews playing any place than 3B?" And he did play places other than 3B. An entire season's worth of games at other positions. He's not an example of someone who filled a position "from beginning to end." Because the vast majority of players don't just get drafted at 1 position and stay there their entire career. Unless they're already at, or near, the bottom of the defensive ladder. That's kind of my point here. Players not playing every career game at 1 position doesn't make them "positionless" or "utility players." It makes them baseball players. The Twins aren't trying to make everyone utility players. Players playing a little bit in other places is normal baseball that's been taking place for decades. It's why I think it's a topic that's discussed too much. People seem to think it's a new phenomenon. It isn't. This isn't even directed at you, really, but you made it easier to prove the point with the Mathews example. The title of this article is click-bait, and misleading. I mean it doesn't even really match the narrative of the article. Then the article goes on to try to make it sound like the Twins are bouncing guys all over instead of just developing them at 1 position. It fails to explain that this is what the vast majority of players go through. The Twins aren't trying to create positionless, or utility, players. They're developing players the same way every other team does.

Do you think the Cards should move Jordan Walker to RF? He's a better prospect than anything in the Twins system and the Cards are moving him from 3B to RF. Gunnar Henderson is maybe the best prospect in baseball and the Orioles moved him from SS to 3B when he got to the bigs. And now may move him back to SS. Corbin Carroll could also make an argument that he's the best prospect in baseball, and could win GGs in CF, but he moved to LF when he got promoted. Manny Machado came up as a SS. Trea Turner came up as a SS, moved to CF, moved to 2B, then moved back to SS. Fernando Tatis Jr came up as a SS and is now moving to RF. Juan Soto has bounced back and forth between LF and RF. Kyle Schwarber came up as a C. That's all just off the top of my head. This is just how promotions and roster construction works. Lewis and Lee may have had shots at being big league SSs, but now the Twins have a platinum glove winner there. Same reason Walker is moving to RF. That Arenado guy in St Louis is pretty good at 3B. I think the moving around of players is too big of a discussion point in general. It's incredibly normal. And fielding a grounder at 3B isn't that much different than fielding them at SS or 2B or 1B. There's nuances to playing positions, but if you can play SS, you can play 3B. The general idea is you keep guys as high on the defensive ladder as possible, for as long as possible. It's why Martin has been getting reps at SS when almost nobody expects him to stay there. Give him a chance to show what he can do at the top of the ladder because even if he has to slide down a few spots in the bigs he'll have been working on the skills it takes to play those other spots well. It's easier to move from the IF to the OF since being truly good at fielding grounders takes more skill than getting to and catching fly balls. Some guys simply can't judge fly balls well enough, but most elite athletes can. So teams keep guys on the dirt as long as they can (like Walker for the Cardinals) before moving them if they're blocked in the majors. Lee will continue to get time at SS because it's the highest spot he has a chance to play on the ladder. Once his bat is ready the Twins will move him to 3B or 2B if that's what's needed based on the roster. Teams aren't trying to create utility players, they're trying to keep guys as high on the ladder as they can for as long as they can. Or they're trying to find a spot that the guy could succeed (Julien being the example there). They move the guy around some early in their careers to see what they look like in different spots, and give them an idea of the highest spot on the ladder they could succeed. Then they give them time to work at 1 position (Julien at 2B last year). Then they reassess and make adjustments. It's not all about how their bodies develop. And it's not done on a whim. The guys making these decisions are incredibly good at scouting players and seeing things that give them hope, or doubts, about a player's ability to stick at certain positions.

Eddie Mathews played 52 games in LF, and 112 games at 1B in the majors, FYI.

Have to love that Martin flow! I don't love him on the dirt, though. Go let him roam free in the pastures!

I'm a little confused by the idea of using Polanco as a DH simply because he's a switch hitter. Being a switch hitter doesn't mean he hits lefties and righties equally well. He's got a career OPS of .720 vs lefties, but an OPS of .806 vs righties. Last year he was .832 against righties and .602 vs lefties. He may be a switch hitter, but he's far better against righties. He's got real splits just like some non-switch hitters. It's why I'd go Buxton-Polanco-Correa at the top of the order. Get him between 2 righties so he faces all the righty bullpen arms.

Stearns didn't go from Cleveland to Milwaukee. He went from Cleveland to Houston to Milwaukee. But they were in Cleveland together over a decade (Stearns left in 2011) ago if that's something anyone wants to put any weight into. Not sure what it has to do with anything, though.

I didn't know whether to like, love, sad, or haha at this so I didn't give you any reaction. But know that you got all of those responses out of me.

The example I'll always remember of teams trading away major league players for prospects while in their own pennant drive was the 2016 Astros. They were in second place in the West with a 56-49 record on August first. They traded Josh Fields from their pen to the Dodgers who were also in 2nd in their respective Western division at the time, and were 59-46. The Astros got 19 year old Yordan Alvarez in return.

But how many teams do have a "true SP1/high-end SP2 in the system with an ETA within 2-3 years?" And, really, you need 3 or 4 of those guys because the vast majority of them don't actually become those types of arms. Getting one of those guys should definitely be the goal, but you're talking about a very limited number of guys. Most top 100 pitching prospects aren't even the guy you're describing. Fangraphs just released their top prospect list. They have 2 pitchers with 60 FV grades, and 9 with 55 FV grades. 1 of those guys is Kodai Senga who's 30 years old. So actual "true SP1/high-end SP2" prospects in the entire minor league baseball world is 10 guys. And at least half of those guys won't turn into that type of pitcher. So there's probably 5 in all of minor league baseball. The Twins should certainly be working to develop those guys. But we need to have realistic expectations as well. Maybe Prielipp is that guy by the end of this year. Maybe they snag another one with pick 5. Maybe Raya becomes one. I definitely get the frustrated fan view. I want another Johan. I want a guy who I will find a way to be in front of a TV every 5th day to watch pitch. And it absolutely should be the goal. And it is. The Twins are trying to develop that guy. It's just really, really, really hard. The organizational shift has happened. They've adjusted the type of guys they seek. They've changed how they develop. They're adding velocity to guys. They're seeking strikeouts over soft contact. It's just really hard to hit on front end pitching. It's why it's so valuable.

I didn't remember all those pitchers, I had to pull up the 40-man to get them all. I think they've shown a solid ability to develop MLB talent. Both hitters and pitchers. What's going to make the difference is stars. Can they get a position player to stay healthy and become a star? Can they develop a frontline starter or 2? That'll be the difference between perennial division contender and perennial WS contender. MLB Network just finished their "Top 100" series. And the last half dozen or so WS Champs have all had at least 5 Top 100 players. The Twins have 2 now. They need to find 3+ more. There's hope for that, but it's their big test. Develop a couple cheap stars and pay for 1 more when they let a number of their upcoming FAs walk.

Varland over Jordy Blaze at this point.

There's more context to it than simply saying "they traded for almost everyone and that isn't sustainable." Duran, Ryan, Thielbar, and Alcala all came over as prospects with all of their team control left. That's different than the guys who came over as major leaguers. But even those guys came over with multiple years of control left. They drafted Ober, Jax, Moran, Balazovich, Canterino, Headrick, Sands, Varland, and Winder. They acquired SWR and Henriquez with all their team control. That's 15 of the 23 arms on the 40-man who they either drafted or acquired as prospects. I'd argue that's not only sustainable, but pretty typical of every major league organization. Front end pitching is hard to acquire in any fashion. But they definitely need Prielipp, Raya, pick #5 this year, someone to come up and be a controllable front line pitcher. But as far as acquiring major league pitchers goes, what they're doing is pretty sustainable.

I've got the Mariners and Padres on right now! Baseball is back! Having 3 screens and my desk in the corner of the office makes it nice to be able to watch some daytime baseball while I "work."