chpettit19

Yeah, there wasn't a lot in there. Same stuff as he's been saying all along. Left to be closer to his kids, and now grandkids, and not be on the road so much. Wants to be by family. Said there's never really a good time to leave a job. Wouldn't have gone back to college for a job that wasn't with a head coach he believed in, and without a shot to win titles. Is looking forward to working with the young kids and helping them improve.

Yeah, also confused why Gallo doesn't count. I think they prefer Farmer start every day against lefties, but the idea that they aren't going to start him plenty of times against righties confuses me, too. I think Miranda and Farmer get every inning at 3B until one is injured or falls apart. Then it's Julien most likely. Then Lewis and Lee as the next options depending how late in the season a need arises. If Gordon is playing significant time at 3B I think it's very likely things have gone terribly, terribly wrong.

Certainly looks like a nice piece. I think the goal should be 100 IP, and a taste of AA ball by the end of the year to keep him on a track for a front end starter. Would be very exciting to have him and Prielipp both ending the season at AA to give us a couple guys with a chance to be front end starters soonish.

Oh, the overall depth was not good at all. It's what doomed them, and now has people acting like they won every game 11-10 because of all the HRs. My ultimate point is simply that they pitched very well that year, and were a complete team when healthy. But their lack of depth made a couple injuries, and a suspension, absolutely devastating at the absolutely worst time of year.

Well it's probably a pretty rare thing that you'd use so that's probably good enough. Just another possible strategy to use every now and then I guess.

The position player pitching rule makes sense to me. I hope it leads to more two-way players. I think they're fun and can be a real advantage to a team in terms of team building and managing. Even if they're a reliever instead of Ohtani. I don't remember the exact wording of the 3-batter rule, but would it be possible to bring in a lefty to face a lefty, move that pitcher to LF as your right handed LFer comes in to get the righty out, and then bring the lefty back to the mound and the LFer back to LF to get the next lefty out? I think that'd be fun.

I like that Biggio comp. Hadn't thought of that one. Julien isn't the defender Biggio is, but I'd take a little more offense as that trade off and hope Julien is a rich man's Biggio.

I'd love to see Julien tear up the WBC, and spring training, and make it really hard to send him to St Paul instead of KC to start the year. If Kirilloff is needing a little more time to get everything together after his wrist surgery there's an opening at 1B that Julien should be gunning for. His potential OBP in the 9 hole to start the year could be wonderful in front of the 3 big hitters I think most of us expect to be in the 1-3 spots in some order. I know he's stolen a bunch of bases, but, from what I've read on scouting reports, he's not actually all that fast. I prefer speed in the OF, but it sounds like he's simply not an infielder (outside 1B maybe). I know we have a ton of LH cOFers already, but it sounds like he simply doesn't have the hands and footwork to play 2B (or 3B). There's also only so much you can realistically expect someone to improve. From the sounds of it Julien may just be 1 of those guys. Another LH cOF/1B/DH is not ideal for this team, but wasting more time with Julien at positions he simply can't play isn't ideal either. With Gallo and Kepler gone within the next year I think there's room to carry a bunch of the lefties we have. Especially since a few of them don't currently have dramatic splits when facing LHPs. If he can maintain a .400 OBP in the bigs he's worth keeping next to Kirilloff (if he can hit like he has when healthy) and Larnach (if he can hit like he has when healthy).

Well the article is about 1 season, and you and I were talking about 1 series, so yeah, I "cherry picked" that rotation. Since it was literally what we were talking about. But I also then pointed out that the Dodgers have been full of aces in the playoffs for years and come up short every year outside of the shortened 2020 season. I pointed out that both 2021 rotations were so lacking in top arms that they averaged less than 5 and less than 4 innings per start for the postseason. I pointed to the Phillies rotation last year that was 2 really good pitchers (like the Twins had in the season we're talking about, and you even pointed out in the '87 season) and a bunch of nothing. I didn't point out that their offense was very HR dependant, but could've done that, too. The Brewers have been running multiple top starters out in the postseason for years, backed by an elite back end of their bullpen, but never make deep runs. How could that be? The Dodgers and Brewers each have ace filled rotations, and you've made it very clear that's what wins in the playoffs. Why haven't I been tagging along with my Milwaukee friends to NLCS games against the Dodgers every year? It's almost like the postseason is nowhere near as "aces and BA win" as you're suggesting. So, yes, I believe the Twins COULD have made a deep run with a healthy team in 2019. But I'm also crazy enough to believe that the postseason is incredibly random, and "the best team" with the most aces and least HR dependant lineup doesn't win most of the time. But, hey, you're able to "cherry pick" the Nationals from 1 season with a rotation that fits your narrative so at least there's that. There's no rhyme or reason to the postseason. Get in and do your best to get hot for that month. I don't know how many more studies people smarter than us have to do with postseason stats to get people to believe that, but clearly it'll take at least 1 more to convince many Twins fans that the team simply isn't too dumb to ever accomplish that ultimate goal. I mean, shoot, the Phillies hit a high K, high power, low BA guy leadoff last year and thought they could win. Those idiots don't know you can't win without a no power, slap hitter at the top? That's baseball 101, obviously!

"Cherry picking from that year?" We're literally talking about that year. It's not cherry picking by using the stats from the year you're talking about. What a weird thing to say. It would've been very hard to beat those teams, yes. That's kind of how the postseason is designed. But winning that Yankees series changes a whole lot of narratives, doesn't it? We're not talking about an 18 game playoff losing streak. We're not talking about a FO and manager who've never won a playoff game. It'd change a lot. The Braves won the 2021 World Series with a rotation worse than the Twins 2019 rotation. Charlie Morton and Max Fried were their only 2 pitchers to get to even 2 fWAR that year. It may not be a "hot take," but it's not all that great of a take either. How about you go ask the Dodgers how having all their aces has worked out. Yeah, Washington won that WS with an insane rotation. They completely collapsed with that rotation moving forward. Go look at how Houston's rotation performed in the 2021 post season. People think Rocco has a quick hook? That Astros' rotation averaged less than 4 IP per start on their way to a WS loss. Atlanta wasn't much better. Less than 5 IP per start on their way to a WS title. How's the best starter (Kershaw) of this generation done in the postseason? The Phillies rotation last year was 2 studs (kinda like Berrios and Odo in 2019) followed by a whole bunch of guys who were worse than Pineda and Gibson in 2019. HR's are the "stickiest" playoff offensive stat, actually. So you're provably wrong there. HRs are the best way to score in any baseball game. Even against great pitchers. And it's the stat that caries over the closest from regular season to postseason. You're throwing out all these ideas that people constantly suggest because that's how it "feels" when they watch the postseason. But in reality they're not correct. HRs don't drop in the postseason, BA does. The postseason isn't full of aces blowing through 7, 8, or 9 innings, it's full of staffs of 10 or so guys that can all get playoff guys out. And, mostly, it's just about which team has an Eddie Rosario or 2 that play out of their minds for the month of October. Jeremy Pena being the guy last year (go check his regular season vs postseason stats, it's insane). The postseason is nowhere near as predictable as people like to act. Otherwise the Dodgers would have way more championships than just the 2020 short season title.

By the time they got to the playoffs, yes, but Pineda and Gibson were both 2.6 fWAR pitchers in 2019. That put them in the top 50 in baseball. Along with Berrios and Odo they had 4 pitchers in the top 50 of fWAR that year. Pineda getting suspended, and Gibson getting sick, really changed that team at the end of the year.

As opposed to James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka (and his 4.45 ERA), and Luis Severino who threw 12 regular season innings that year? Cuz those are the games 1, 2, and 3 starters for the Yankees in that series. Not exactly striking fear in any opposing line ups with that trio either.

A healthy (and not suspended) Twins pitching staff in 2019 was top 10 in baseball. Unfortunately, they weren't healthy (or not suspended) in the postseason. They finished top 10 in just about every pitching stat in baseball in 2019.

That data is since 2019, not just 2019. The Dodgers didn't accrue 86 pitching fWAR in 1 season. Here's 2019: Twins 4, Yankees 10 in pitching WAR. Twins beat them in ERA, FIP, xFIP, HR/9, and BB/9. The Twins had a good pitching staff in 2019.

They didn't have enough pitching to make up for Pineda getting suspended, Gibson getting sick, and Dyson being hurt. Their overall pitching that year was actually really good, but fell apart going into the playoffs due to their lack of depth. They had the 9th best ERA in baseball. 4th most pitching fWAR, allowed the 5th fewest HR/9, were 4th in FIP, and 5th in xFIP. It's one of the biggest "what if" seasons I can remember for the Twins. What if their pitching was healthy, and not suspended, going into the playoffs? Could've been a different story. Note: I'm not saying you weren't just meaning depth when you say "didn't have enough pitching," but I like to point out how good their pitching actually was that year because so many people put that entire season on the 307 HRs, and pretend they had a bottom 10 pitching staff or something. That was a complete team when it was all together. Just wasn't all together going into the playoffs, unfortunately.

I'm super excited for this! Really cool so many Twins will get to participate. There are some pretty insane lineups for the top teams. It's awesome to watch all star teams play for real, and truly care about winning. The best baseball players on the planet battling it out is the best!

The change in schedule doesn't really make a big difference in how challenging it is. The biggest changes in win percentage of opponents from the new schedule is like .008%. A bunch of the games we used to play against the Royals and Tigers will now be against the Pirates and Rockies. A bunch of the games we used to play against the White Sox and Guardians will now be against the Cardinals and Braves. It all balances out pretty closely.

Oh, 100% speculation. I have no idea if they'd want to keep them there, or if they'd want to do it no matter who their 4th and 5th guys are or if it's just a ridiculous idea at all. Was just a thought since they'll be back for the second series and starters 4 and 5 won't have any role during games 1 through 3. I have no real fears about either Mahle or Maeda. At least no more than I do about pitchers in general. They're all massive injury concerns as far as I'm concerned. My hope is that they all look great and make it through ST healthy and it's basically a flip of the coin on who starts where in the rotation. To me it's way more about early season matchups than actually ranking them 1 through 5. It's why I'd go Lopez-Gray-Ryan-Mahle-Maeda to start. Just cuz I want to see Lopez start against Arraez and the Marlins, and Ryan needs to face the Royals.

I think a really fascinating piece about the early season pitching setup is what they do with Lopez knowing the Marlins are the 2nd series of the year. Do they want him to start against his old team or not (or does he want/ask to?)? If they do they need him to either start opening day (assuming a 5 man rotation) or save him for games 4 or 5. Also, knowing Ryan absolutely sliced up KC last year I'd think they'd want him to go in the first 3 games at some point. Would they be interested in leaving Mahle and/or Maeda in Florida to get a little extra work/treatment at the facility while the rest of the team heads to KC and have them be your #4 and 5 guys who face the Marlins?

I don't expect a 2024 arrival, but I don't think it's outrageous to think he could see some bullpen work in the last half of 2024. Like Chris Sale or David Price (more like Price since his was a very late callup, mostly for the playoffs). If they're competing next year and could use a boost for the stretch run I would hope he'd be an option to come up and unleash a barrage of slide pieces.

Quit ruining my vibe! Let me have my dreams! 😄

Oh, the technology in place now is incredible. But I know spin rates and extension numbers get people heated around here so avoided that side of things in a post that was already pretty long. But to keep this about Prielipp, the article says his slider spin rate is over 2900. You're talking top 10 in the majors at that level. Like that is the elite of the elite type stuff if he is back to that moving forward. So those who are into that kind of data should be real excited that he already has an MLB out pitch.

I enjoy Law. He's my go to prospect guy, along with Fangraphs. Not because I think they're smarter than anyone else, or their rankings are better, but because they just have generally lower grades (especially FV) on everyone. Kind of keeps me grounded in my excitement over guys. We read so much about these guys and what they "could be" that I think we tend to start overestimating them (sometimes significantly) because of all the hope we have for the future of the Twins. Law and Fangraphs tend to ground that with less "best case scenario" type reports. I was surprised to see him so high on Martin, but it does make a little sense. He had the same concerns before last year (Martin not trying to hit the ball hard, but instead just trying to not strike out and slap it into right), but gives him some credit for his end of season change in approach/swing. If you actually read the reports in there he's not actually as high on guys as just looking at the rankings may suggest. He gives Balazovich a pass for the season due to his knee injury early. Not sure I agree with that, but also doesn't seem outrageous. He's like everyone else on Prielipp, lost in no man's land. He gives his changeup a 55 grade which makes me even more excited about him. But acknowledges we just don't know who he is after the surgery. Let's all cross our fingers! He loves the ceiling on E Rod, and that makes me excited. But I still don't quite understand his stance on Lewis. He bumps him for not being a SS anymore (Correa is here now), but seems to think the bat is likely to produce like we saw last year. Sounds like he'd have him much higher if he knew he was going to play CF moving forward, but doesn't think he's as valuable if he's at 3B. Which makes sense, but I wonder where he'd have him ranked amongst the rest of the 3B prospects. Cuz he has some awfully high. But I'm glad to see national folks saying they believe his bat is for real.

Prospect ranking is so opinion based it's really hard to have too strong of a feeling one way or the other on any of them (in my opinion). "Sure thing" top prospects fail all the time. "AAAA ceiling" type players turn into stars all the time. It's just a bunch of educated guesses. And then there's differing styles in what people look for in their rankings. A number of people here are like you (from how I'm reading your post) in that they weigh AA/AAA players with production over lower level guys with projection. It's also really hard for the average fan to even pretend to have any idea what "experts" are even seeing/describing in their "projections." I can tell you that the people doing the national rankings have a ton of real connections with major league scouts, and, many times, are former scouts who prefer to not have to travel around so much so just write about and rank prospects now. And real scouts are looking for things most of us aren't, and their "projections" are incredibly in depth and well educated. Doesn't mean anyone should base their rankings off that instead of high minors production, but when scouts are talking about a college sophomore as the best arm in the best college baseball conference and a possible top 1-5 pick in the draft it means they're seeing things they see in the best of the best arms. There's also a difference between minor league production and major league projection. You can look at minor league leader boards and see a bunch of dudes with really nice minor league production who will never reach the majors, let alone succeed there. How you get to your production matters. As an example, Matt Wallner is a oft debated guy around here because he has some nice minor league production, and has debuted in the majors. But he's not loved by national prospect rankings because he really struggles to hit (and maybe recognize?) off speed pitches in the minors. He's gotten to his production by absolutely destroying fastballs, and laying off enough breaking balls to survive. You can do that in the minors because many of the pitchers can't control their breaking stuff well enough to make you pay. Guys in the majors can. A pitching example would be Kohl Stewart. Had really nice minor league numbers in terms of runs allowed stats, but wasn't striking anyone out. Guys thought it was weird early cuz he had good "stuff," and that he'd eventually start getting the Ks. As he progressed the Ks never came and he started falling down ranking boards. His runs allowed numbers never got terrible in the minors, but he struggled in the majors because when you can't K guys you rely on weak contact to get outs. Guys in the majors have weak contact far less than guys in the minors (it's why they're in the majors). So when he couldn't get the ball by guys they were hitting it much harder and his runs allowed stats tanked. If you ever get the chance to talk with a major league scout it's absolutely fascinating to listen to what they look for and how they think. I highly suggest it. They're crazy smart folks when it comes to watching baseball players.

It's still the offseason so hope is still flowing steadily for me. I'm a little greedy and am hoping Lee debuts this year and Prielipp in 2024. Why not have 2 guys who had a chance to be top 5 picks in 2022 both bust out quickly and take this franchise to another level?