mnfireman

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/brewers-trade-kolten-wong-mariners-jesse-winker-abraham-toro.html View full rumor

I have continued doing my homework on Toronto's catchers and their team in general. Maybe I set the ask for Moreno too high, but I think Toronto asks big for him. They have a top closer in Jordan Romero, so they don't need Duran, unless they plan on converting him to a starter, which they do need. They also need a LH batting OF after trading Teoscar Hernandez. They also have an above average Utility player in Whit Merrifield, but he will be 34 on opening day and has been trending downward since 2019. They carried 3 catchers all year in order to use Kirk at DH regularly, releasing Tyler Heineman in May and Zach Collins in September, both of whom were picked up by Pittsburgh. According to BTV (some TD posters favorite place to build trades) Moreno's median value is 53.7, Kirk's median value is 39.3, and Jansen's median value is 24.9. These values would make Jansen the most likely to be traded, but I've read where Toronto really likes him. And they don't have to trade any of them, they could carry 3 catchers and use 1 of them as the DH. I won't post all the Twins median values unless I include them in a proposed trade and I won't include Duran, Miranda or Polanco as they don't fit Toronto's current needs. Kepler (5.8) and Arraez (19.7) might get Jansen Larnach (14.6) and Mahle (11.2) might get Jansen Arraez (19.7) and Gray (6.1) might get Jansen Kepler (5.8) and Ober (19.5) might get Jansen Kepler(5.8), Thielbar (13.4) and Gray (6.1) or Gordon (6.7) might get Jansen Kirilloff (11.9) and Mahle (11.2) and Jax (.7), Lopez (.7), or Pagan (0) might get Jansen Kepler (5.8), Arraez (19.7) and Mahle (11.2) might get Kirk (might have to add Jax, Pagan, or Lopez ) Larnach (14.6), Arraez (19.7) and Gray (6.1) might get Kirk Kirilloff (11.9), Arraez (19.7) and Mahle (11.2) might get Kirk (Twins lose 2/3s of 1B options) Arraez (19.7) Thielbar (13.4) and Gray (6.1) or Gordon (6.7) might get Kirk Lee (38.9) or Ryan (38.6) and Jax (.7), Lopez (.7) or Pagan (0) (or 2 of the 3) might get Kirk Lee (38.9) or Ryan (38.6) and Arraez (19.7) might get Moreno Lee (38.9) or Ryan (38.6), Kirilloff (11.9) and Gordon (6.7) might get Moreno There are many more possible combinations, but these are enough to show that it will take a lot to get 1 of the Toronto catchers.

I'm thinking Toronto values him at pretty close to his actual worth, and will then ask for a little more as is their right...

Moreno isn't the starter yet and he put up a .733 OPS as a 22 yr old. Jansen put up a .640 OPS as a starter in 2019....

Guess who?? Right-handed OF vs LHP 2022; Player A slash line: 82 PA - .243/.305/.500 .805 OPS 6 HR 12 RBI - 31 yrs old on opening day. Player B slash line: 71 PA - .246/.338/.426 .764 OPS 3 HR 7 RBI - 32 yrs old on opening day. Player C Slash line: 100 PA - .264/.320/.495 .815 OPS 6 HR 22 RBI - 32 yrs old on opening day. Pretty much the same player, but 1 of them will cost league minimum, 2 of them will cost Millions.

I'd think Toronto would start the conversation by asking for Lee, Duran and possibly Arraez, Gordon or Kirilloff. Are you willing to go that big??

Reports say that if Toronto deals a catcher it would most likely be Jansen. He'll be 28 shortly after opening day, but still under team control until 2025. Moreno was their top prospect and made his debut last year, and I'm sure the Twins don't have the prospects/players to make a deal for him.

I was wrong about when he went on the IL, he played 79 games in 2021. Also found this on mlb.com; Rookie Eligibility Definition A player shall be considered a rookie unless he has exceeded any of the following thresholds in a previous season (or seasons): • 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues. • 45 total days on an active Major League roster during the Championship Season (excluding time on the Injured List). A player must have rookie eligibility to be considered for any MLB rookie awards -- such as the American League or National League Rookie of the Year Award -- or appear on any MLB Pipeline prospect lists. So, Lewis maintains his rookie status.

He was on the major league roster, therefore on the major league disabled list, thus accruing major league service time.

Per Baseball=Reference: Rookie Status: Exceeded rookie limits during 2021 season

FTFY

Well, according to Fan Graph's, Buxton's on-field performance in 2021 & 2022 was worth $65 MM vs actual paycheck value of $14.3 MM. If Buxton continues to produce as he has, even with injuries, he will far out-produce the contract he signed, actual value + ALL incentives. Yes, it seems like a lot of $$$ for a guy who misses big chunks of games, but his on-field production makes his value very high. But he and the team need to figure out how to keep him on the field for about 145-150 games.

He does not need to be extended, if he wants to get paid he needs to perform and will be rewarded with high arbitration salaries. The Twins get his best years and maintain payroll flexibility if he gets injured or doesn't perform.

Several teams are looking at catcher's, I'm sure his agents are trying to maximize his value. Next week should take care of his market.

I'm sure every player you hoped the team would sign has put up great numbers wherever else they signed....maybe you should forward your number to the front office guys so they can consult you before signing/trading players.

Jon Heyman has reported the Dodgers are interested in the 29-year-old left-hander while Gleeman and Hayes have reported the Twins are pursuing him. At an expected total contract value of around $150m, Rodon will go for a premium this offseason. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/dodgers-twins-interested-in-carlos-rodon.html View full rumor

After re-watching the play that he got hurt on, I don't think being in CF is the reason he got hurt. It looked to me like he got hurt immediately upon landing after the catch, something that could very well have happened to him as a SS chasing a liner out to short LF or CF, or possibly even on the base paths after awkwardly rounding second or third. I could be wrong though, just my $.02.

Does an agent who publicly states that he plans to drag his client's contract talks into February or March really have the client's best interests in mind? It is certainly not in any teams best interests. Boras has both Correa and Bogaerts as clients, so this tells me that he plans to do the same thing for Bogaerts as well, hoping to ensure landing spots for both as well as keeping the salary offers from dropping due to lack of competition among teams.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/angels-acquire-hunter-renfroe-from-brewers.html

I think Maeda should start the season in the rotation, looking at the schedule, it looks like the team might be better served having 6 starters for the first month, especially with Maeda, Gray and Mahle ending the year on the injured list, Ober on the injured list for several months last year and Winder and Varland possibly being counted on heavily. If not 6 starters, some very creative ways to get to the short-relievers. Piggy-back starters, skip turns in the rotation and use starters out of the bullpen in long relief until their next turn, etc... I think something can be figured out so that scheduled throwing days could done in game situations instead of in the bullpen before/after the game. Kind of scary hoping Baldelli can figure out how to piece together both a rotation and a bullpen without over using/injuring somebody along the way.

I don't think Kepler would be the center piece of any trade he may be a part off this off-season.

The metrics may have been kind to Arraez, but, to me at least, the eye test was not. He went after balls to his right when he shouldn't have, he stayed on the bag too long on obviously errant throws and struggled at times with throws in the dirt. He did alright on pop flies to short right and foul territory down the line, his positioning on cut-offs was adequate and he has the arm to make the cut-off throw and the throw across the diamond. The shortcomings can be worked on this off-season, but it will take time and game repetitions for "instincts" to take over, and if the team continues to use him as a utility player he won't get those. But the bat plays so the team needs him on the field...