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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    That is an extremely logical, well thought out caveat. Unfortunately Terry missed that day in economics. When he hands out money he is going to get his money's worth. Nolasco has had I don't know 50 starts. Pelfrey. Hughes. Plouffe. And so forth.
  2. tobi0040
    I could not find the article, but I believe Perkins said he was going to play out his contract and retire in two years. He said he has missed too much of his kids lives. If that was his plan, one would question why he would put himself through the surgeries and rehab required to working back from these injuries.
  3. tobi0040
    There is a fatal flaw in your premise here. From what I can tell, Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor do very litte watching what is going on in the league. If someone were to tell them about the success of Arcia two months from now, they will probably just shrug their shoulders and conclude they were once again unlucky. I can't help but picture Lloyd and Harry at the tail end of Dumb and Dumber. "We are going to catch our break, we just gotta keep our eyes open"
  4. tobi0040
    There is no question this is the best thing that has likely ever happened to Arcia. Usually we reserve that for the date he was married, or birth of children. But I am pretty sure this is better than those.
  5. tobi0040
    F. Shorten the bench and really live on the edge with just one utility OF and INF
  6. tobi0040
    Exactly this. We would need a CF or SS to get hurt mid game and their replacement to also get hurt to run into an issue of a guy out of position. The next day you have Mastro or Beresford here. That is literally the last scenario a team that is losing 70 percent of their games should be remotely concerned with. Let alone DFA-ING guys
  7. tobi0040
  8. tobi0040
    With a roster that has Buxton, Kepler, and Escobar, Santana is not needed as a backup CF. With Dozier, Escobar, and Nunez he is not needed to back up SS either. So we could have hung onto the higher upside guy and cut the extremely replaceable Santana. Or send Park to AAA which it looks like he should be for a little while. But the easy way to make sense of these things is to first accept that this FO has literally no idea what they are doing. Then you see these things and it makes perfect sense
  9. tobi0040
    Otwins, I don't disagree with your analysis at all. But isn't it sad that we can just assume which team will pick a player up and that they will use him in a manner that maximizes his value? I think one of 8 teams or so will pick him up and use him the right way.
  10. tobi0040
    Danny Santana has the same dirt on Molitor that Punto had on Gardy.
  11. tobi0040
    I was going off the comment from Keith Law posted by someone else as far as above average OF. Defensively Fangraphs thinks he will be an above average defensive first baseman or a below average corner OF "if he sticks there". Multiple reports question his bat speed. As far as the all star voting. It is flawed. But the examples I cited of the last two WS champs is valid as is the broader point. Each of those teams have 3-5 all star caliber players. The Royals had position players with a WAR of 7.2, 4.4, 3.6, and 2.8 in addition to Salvador Perez who had the second highest WAR among catchers in the AL. Then they had Wade Davis and his sub 1.00 ERA and 444 ERA+. And they had five other players that have played in an all star game at least once. Volquez, Cueto, Young, Herrera, and Holland
  12. tobi0040
    My premise is that World Series caliber teams have multiple all star caliber players. That is how you win in this league. The 2015 Royals had five all stars and the 2014 Giants had four. Both of those teams had other players who may make all star games in others years (some have). My other premise is that the Twins are at a huge disadvantage with regards to signing an all star caliber player in free agency. We may get lucky here or there but otherwise it won't happen. So if we draft guys whose ceiling is "above average RF" in the first round, how are we going to gather 3-5 all stars? Ben Revere. Wimmers. Waldorp. These guys were not going to be all stars
  13. tobi0040
    I looked at the highest 20 SP and position players by WAR last year. Hoping to gain some insight into where these guys are drafted and similarities. 17 of the SP were drafted and 3 were signed. 9 of the 17 that came from the draft were taken in the first round, including 4 of the top 5. 2 were taken in the second round. First round. Kerhsaw. Price. Scherzer. Sale. Greinke. Cole. Bumgarner. Harvey. Hamels. Second round. Lester and Ross. Later rounds. Arrieta (5th). Kuechel (7th). Kluber (4th). deGrom (9th). McHugh (18th). Signed. Carrasco. Cueto. And Quintana. I ran the same exercise for position players. First round (8). Harper, Trout, Machado, AJ Pollack, Bryant, Mccutchen, Heyward, and Posey. Of those 8, Trout, Machado, Posey, Mccutchen, and Pollack play a premium position (CF, SS, 2B, 3B, or C). Bryant has played 3B slightly more than half of the time. Call it 5.5 of the 8. A pretty high ratio. The non-premium position players in the first round are Heyward and Harper. The odds of Kiriloff hitting like Harper or fielding like Heyward are pretty low. Supplemental/second rounds – Donaldson, Votto, and Kipnis. Later rounds – Goldschmidt (8). Cain (17). Davis (17). Kiermeyer (31). Rizzo (6). Carpenter (13). Granderson (3). Martinez (20). Signed. Cespedes. The big take away for me is that the positon players tend to fall into one of two buckets. They either play a premium position (like 5.5 of the 8 first rounders), or they absolutely mash like Harper, Goldschmidt, Davis, Votto. That is my frustration with taking a guy who does not play a premium position and is unlikely to hit like one of these guys. Similar to taking a Ben Revere or Alex Wimmers in the first round, you have used your best tool you have to build a team on a guy that has virtually no chance of being one of the better players in the league.
  14. tobi0040
    I think it is largely about positional value. The name of the game is maximizing value with the resources that are available to you. To the extent you focus your draft picks on position players you need to spend your free agent dollars on pitchers and vice versa. Nelson Cruz and Ervin Santana signed about the same contract. For that matter, Cruz signed for only $2m more per year than Ricky Nolasco. I don’t think I am cherry picking here. 4/50-55 on the free agent market does not get you a #1 or #2 starter and by nature they will be a guy that is 29+, which tends to be past peak for a pitcher. Heck, look at the contract Mike Leake signed. Cruz had WAR of 9 leading up to free agency in the previous three years. Has a career OPS+ is 125 with seasons of 124 and 135 into FA. Nolasco’s ERA+ in his previous three years was 84, 91, and 101. His career number was I believe 91. His WAR from the previous three seasons was 3.6. Ervin’s three years were 74, 90, and 103. His career ERA+ was right about league average (currently 98). His WAR for the previous seasons was 2.2. We would have better luck signing Nelson Cruz, taking the additional value and rolling the dice at drafting a pitcher and hoping he turns out to be league average than using the same amount of money to sign a league average pitcher (before the decline) and hope a guy like Alex Kiriloff turns out to be Nelson Cruz.
  15. tobi0040
    Personally, I would like to see us aim higher than that with our first round picks. It seems like the premium positions are C, SS, 2B, 3B, CF, and SP (times five). Aiming for an above average player at those positions may make sense at #15. If the guy has some shot at hitting 35-40 HR like Bryce Harper or Stanton, aim there for a RF. If that guy is not available, use your picks elsewhere.
  16. tobi0040
    It is really sad that we need to think about this lineup in terms of late September. This should have been it in mid-May.
  17. tobi0040
    I don't think it is too tough to take Grossman out. Hopefully though Rosario forcing his way back is enough to end the Sano in RF experiment, in the event Sano's injury want already enough
  18. tobi0040
    Nacho cheese
  19. tobi0040
    Thanks for the article JImmer. It was a good one
  20. tobi0040
    Palls was an auto-correct. Thanks Apple. Although it could conceivably be some sort of nickname I have arbitrarily given him. Yeah. Let's go with that.
  21. tobi0040
    Palls is basically putting up Sano type power numbers in AA. A 45 HR lace over 162 games What are the reports on this guys defense in RF?
  22. tobi0040
    No worries at all.
  23. tobi0040
    I looked back at the last five drafts and took the best player after the immediate five picks. Some of these were guys take way later. Trout was within 5 of Gibson. Revere is probably the best compared with the five after him. I come up with Mahtook in 2011, Yelich in 2010, and Brett Lawrie in 2008.
  24. tobi0040
    The difference between my 18 picks and your 27 picks is that you are using comp picks. Some of these were 38-46th overall. I don't really consider them first round picks. A third of the time we have drafted a HS OF with our first selection. None were catchers (I get Mauer was in 2001). Just seems like we are using our draft pick assets to crowd out one of the few places we can use our limited free agent dollars.
  25. tobi0040
    I was being 100 percent sarcastic
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