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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    With the addition of Rodney and Reed, the pitchforks were not really justified for letting guys like Bard go.
  2. tobi0040
    I think you start by asking what his defense is worth a year. Then add speed in the bases. If you quantify those things, 6-80 makes a lot of sense. The Twins are protected from this deal being a flop even if he has an OPS of .720 through the life of the deal. Heck, if he is a 2-3 WAR player defensively and 1 WAR is worth $7m a year, then it sounds like a huge bargain.
  3. tobi0040
    With regards to what is wrong with Sano as a DH type, the issue is his value as a DH. Ortiz has a career WAR of 55 and he played 19 seasons. It looks like his peak is a 3-4 year stretch where he was accumulated about 18-20 WAR. Then he bounced around between 2-3 WAR per season. So if you take that into account with what it will likely take to re-sign him I think it should be explored.
  4. tobi0040
    Their is a downside to the wait until the allegations pass and "don't sell low". Doesn't that assume it doesn't get worse? If more women or chatter comes forward, or if the MLB tries to get in front of their #metoo movement and make an example out of Sano then his value would fall quite a bit more. I am not saying these things will happen, but they could.
  5. tobi0040
    Never say never. I think he has no chance to re-sign here. He has weight/defensive issues. The allegations, which could grow. If we can get 85-90 cents on the dollar I would consider it.
  6. tobi0040
    Culture shock is the only thing that can describe my state of mind. Donald Trump had more than 10 women accuse him of sexual harassment of some sort. Unwanted sexual advances where he was told no and didn't listen. Those women were all called liars. Then he was on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and 3 weeks later 62 million people voted for him. Roy Moore, more than 10 women. Some minors at the time. They are called liars. Almost wins a senate seat. I am 34, so I am not sure how widespread and known the accusations against Bill Clinton were. But again more than 10 women. He and his wife discredited and shamed the women and he wins an election and gets re-elected. I fully understand why women hesitate. It keeps getting re-enforced that many people don't care and some will not believe them even if they don't know either party. As a father of an 8 and 9 year old, it makes me sick.
  7. tobi0040
    The guy that will shoot up is Kiriloff. TJ doesn't seem to bother position players
  8. tobi0040
    An accomplice is someone who helps another commit a crime. An example would be a lookout for a robbery. This is not that. I applaud the folks at Twins Daily for taking a stand here, based on their first hand relationship with the accuser.
  9. tobi0040
    Due to the gravity of the accusation, if you have never met Sano or the accuser (like me), it is probably best to sit on the sidelines and not offer up an opinion based on who you believe. And I really hope we all stop questioning why women don't come forward sooner. Their are literally a million reasons why they are hesitant to do so and all of them are legitimate reasons. That is a terrible spot to be in, if true, to no fault of her own. Let's not make their life more difficult. They really don't need it.
  10. tobi0040
    when you factor in the picks of free agent guys (outside of Darvish), I think I prefer the trade market. If you compare signing one of the guys for 4-80 or 5-100, you pay the money and lose a pick. With a guy like Cole, you lose prospects, pay less money, and potentially gain a pick if he does not re-sign here. The swing between losing a pick and gaining one seems like a pretty big deal. Just remember the pick we got for Cuddy turned out to be Berrios.
  11. tobi0040
    I am excited about the class. But I am not sure we should put much stock in early promotions relative to previous draft picks. This is I believe a philosophical difference between the new and old regime.
  12. tobi0040
    Agree with Chief. We should move away from hoping we get help from AAA/AA and take the approach that any help would be a bonus. Go out and spend $10-12M total a year on 2-3 7-8th inning guys with solid track records. They are typically in the 1-3 year range.
  13. tobi0040
    It seems unlikely Lewin Diaz would get picked. He is 20, with a .757 OPS in low A. I don't seem how a team hides him on their MLB roster all season. He is a 1B/DH, from a flexibility standpoint he would literally kill their bench all year.
  14. tobi0040
    It is hard to say in a vacuum. We don't know what was on the table for either guy, or in the case of Dozier what sort of contract dollars and term he would look for past next season. You could make the case that next years rotation has promise with Ervin, Berrios, Gonsalves, and Romero. And we have a pretty weak division.
  15. tobi0040
    Watson
  16. tobi0040
    Weird about Fowler. Law has him 10th in the Yanks system
  17. tobi0040
    The Yankees gave up their 3rd and 7th best prospect for Gray. The other guy was outside the top 20. None of them are currently on the MLB.com top 100. Gray has a career 3.43 ERA and has 2 more years of control. Maybe we should have traded for him.
  18. tobi0040
    My $3 per year maybe low. But I don't think it would take 6, 7, or 10. It would be mid season. Last year you had Meloncon, Chapman, and Jansen in the top 10 free agents. Clearly, Kintzler is not there. Remaining guys, cbs had Holland 21 overall. 1 year and 7 million. Romo 37. 1 year $3 million Ziegler 40. 2 years 16 million Wood 41, 2 years 12 million Felix 46, 1 year 5.3 million Cecil 47, 4 years 30 million Uehara 51, 1 year 4.5 million.
  19. tobi0040
    I wonder what it would cost to extend Kintzler. IF he would sign for 2-6. And IF we are keeping Ervin and Dozier to hopefully see what next year looks like with Gonsalves, Romero, and Gordon here than it is an option I would explore if we aren't getting a meaningful prospect in return.
  20. tobi0040
    It is a numbers game. Definitely some solid moves here. It would be nice to see Ervin and/or Dozier go. They may fetch a Kluber/Carrasco type prospect. It sure would be nice to add one or two along side Gonsalves, Berrios, and Romero.
  21. tobi0040
    Littell was 19th by Newsday back in June. Maybe he is up a few with good numbers this year. Decent write-up here: http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yankees-top-20-prospects-in-2017-1.13549624
  22. tobi0040
    Great points Nick. Well done
  23. tobi0040
    I think the Twins go one of two ways 1 - trade for young controllable pitchers 2 - trade Ervin and Dozier for controllable guys/prospects If we went route number two I would hope we would keep Gordon because we are playing for the future and be content with Berrios, Gonsalves, Romero, plus what we fetched in a trade. If we are moving guys like Gordon I would be okay with him as the centerpiece for a guy like Quintana. Ideally Archer but he is really good with 4 cheap years left
  24. tobi0040
    We always overvalue other players and under value our own. That is the frustrating thing about these discussions. If Dozier can only net one top 50 prospect, we don't need to give up Gordon for Strailly. His career ERA plus is 99. Gray's ERA plus is 112 but only has two years left and should be costly in Arb 2 and 3. The most important thing we can do is try and lock up Miguel Sano. If we can't, we should market him and net a huge haul.
  25. tobi0040
    I would be shocked if the Twins added anything of consequence by giving up anything of consequence (prospects) Absolutely shocked.
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