nytwinsfan

Seth, Darvish wouldn't cost a draft pick. You have that wrong. He was traded to the Dodgers, so no draft pick compensation is attached.

Apparently Pirates will trade Cole for the following: I wish we could substitute in Jorge for Jay . . . but, that's probably not realistic. Seriously have to consider doing this, if it is the offer.

Agreed with everything, except you'd rather have Odorizzi and Cole than Darvish? Are you taking into account what you'd have to give up in money and prospects, because Darvish is clearly a much better pitcher than Odorizzi and although its less clear cut, than Cole.

I mean, if you think there is a decent chance Gonsalves or Romero is going to be an Archer (or even Cole) level pitcher, then yeah, I agree. But Gonsalves looks like a 4-5 type and while Romero has the upside of a front-line starter, the actual odds of that happening are probably less than 20%, plus he may not even be suited for a starting role. He's never pitched more than 125 innings, and the one time he pitched that many innings, he got hurt/warn down at the end of the year. Archer gives you an ace for 4 years, and Cole a #2 for two years. With injury risk there is no sure thing, but those are much more of a guarantee of a #1-#2 pitcher than Gonsalves/Romero. That's why you might trade Romero or Gonsalves, plus something more (and for Archer, probably a lot more). Also, let's say you trade one of Romero or Gonsalves for 2 years of Cole. By 2020, when Cole is a FA, both the other of Gonsalves/Romero and Lewis Thorpe may be ready to join your rotation. And tons of money is opening up from the Santana, Mauer and Dozier contracts expiring next year, so you may also have enough to get another FA pitcher next year or in 2020, if you don't this year. Meanwhile, having Cole means you have a good starting pitching rotation the next two years, rather than a mediocre one. We don't want to wait until 2020 to be a contender, but without beefing up our rotation for 2018-19, we aren't realistically contenders. And I don't think you can count on Gonsalves or Romero to add what the rotation needs to this year, and likely not even next year. Obviously it all depends on the total amount the Pirates (or the Rays) ask for, but I would not make trading Romero or Gonsalves off limits. I might even trade Lewis for Archer, if the deal was good enough (say, Archer for Lewis plus a 6-10 level prospect - which the Rays likely wouldn't do anyway).

A rebuilding team probably wouldn't want Kepler or probably Polanco either, I'm guessing.

I'm for going after Cole if he can be got without include Royce Lewis. Archer, whose value is more than twice that of Cole (bc of years of control, quality of pitcher, and contract), would almost certainly require Lewis, Gonsalves or Romero, and probably more. That's not worth it. I'd target Cole with a package that does not include Lewis.

ALSO, we can't let this happen:

If McCutchen is on the trade block, per Olney, that probably means Cole really is too.

Cole probably yes, Archer, no way in hell. Archer is the better pitcher and also has 4 years of control, versus Cole's 2 years of control. Archer probably has about 5/2 the value of Cole. I can't imagine a scenario where the Twins get Archer unless they trade at least Royce Lewis, one of Gonsalves or Romero, plus probably another decent 5-9 range prospect. I'm interested what it would take to get Cole. I've heard the Pirates likely have no interest in middle infielders, so even though Gordon would probably be who we'd want to give up, I'm not sure the Pirates would be that interested.

Spoiler, they say the Twins moving the $1 million each for two 45 value prospects were small but excellent moves.

*NOTE - Updated to include Severino, who was signed after I posted this, pushing Slegers down to 26. Here are my top 25: 1. R. Lewis 2. N. Gordon 3. S. Gonsalves 4. F. Romero 5. B. Rooker 6. L. Thorpe 7. A. Kirilloff 8. A. Baddoo 9. W. Javier 10. B. Enlow 11. M. Garver 12. T. Jay 13. B. Graterol 14. Z. Littell 15. L. Wade 16. Y. Severino 17. Z. Granite 18. J. Curtiss 19. L. Diaz 20. J. Miranda 21. F. Jorge 22. J. Reed 23. N. Burdi 24. J. Pearson 25. D. Banuelos 26. A. Slegers

No way they go anything more than year to year with Mauer, given his age and relative performance. No way.

(emphasis added). YES YOU ABSOLUTELY CAN. May Career as starter: 3.85 FIP 4.09 xFIP, .354 BABIP May 2015 as starter: 3.35 FIP, 3.96 xFIP, .344 BABIP Yes, his numbers as a reliever are significantly better, but that is true of almost any pitcher, and he pitched as a reliever after another year of development, when he may have been improving somewhat as a starter as well had he stayed in that role. Compare: SP A starter year X: 7.88 K/9, 20.3 K%, 1.94 BB/9, 5.0 BB%, .86 HR/9 SP B starter year Y: 8.59 K/9, 22.6 K%, 2.97 BB/9, 7.8 BB%, .93 HR/9 Which would you rather have? It is pretty close, but I'd go with starting pitcher A, because of the significantly lower BB% and very slightly lower HR/9 rate, even despite the lower K rate. But I'll grant that it is debatable. . . . . . SP A is Trevor May as a starter in 2015. SP B is Jose Berrios in 2017.

Unless he's just lights out and consistently hitting his spots, showing excellent command in spring training, this is the way to go. I've always heard command can frequently lag even when the pitcher has his movement and velocity back after TJ. I definitely would try to bring him back as a starter though.

Romero is not ready. He's a ways away, and although he certainly has real upside, it isn't even clear he'll ever be able to be a starter for 100 innings plus. Gonsalves is almost ready, but likely will take some time to adjust and reach his potential at the majors. And his upside is probably limited. In the meantime we have two quality pitchers (Santana and Berrios) and two mediocre ones (Gibson and Mejia). If we want to compete for the division, and realistically even the wild card, we definitely need at least one quality free agent SP signing.

Agreed that Diaz probably isn't that risky because he's so far away from the majors. More worried about Reed and Burdi. Stewart might get taken too, but at this point he hasn't shown the results to merit inclusion on the 40.

Seems right. The one I'm worried about is Jake Reed. He seemed pretty close to the majors. Burdi I was less worried about because of his injuries. Guess Stewart could be lost as well. Wasn't worried about Diaz, given how far away he is.

I just don't think Levine and Falvey are the type of guys who get stuck in their previous team's way of thinking. That doesn't strike me as their MO at all. I think they are flexible, creative, and practical enough thinkers to look at this from the Twins' long-term perspective, and not impose their previous team's paradigm on their new situation. Could be wrong, but I don't think so. Guess we'll see.

I'm going to in all sincerity politely suggest that you read this: https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/4/4/15180804/an-idiots-guide-advanced-statistics-fip-era ERA is not a very good measure of run prevention skill by a pitcher. FIP is not perfect either, but it is a lot better. And other similar better measures (xFIP, SIERRA) all show that Darvish is much better than Cobb.

Agreed, but I think they'd probably want something at least a bit more.

I know this isn't how it is done, but if I were Falvine, I'd give Molitor a 1 year extension and tell him whether he is brought back for additional years will depend in large part on whether he continues to constantly bunt in stupid situations. I'd say, if you can dial that back, we'd be happy to have you for the longer term. If not, you're gone. The bunting simply has to stop. I know it is kind of cliche now to make this criticism, but it really is no joke. It is putting the team in a statistical disadvantage and just CANNOT continue. I think Molitor's other attributes make him worth keeping, but if the bunting doesn't stop, he needs to go.

!!!!!!!!

Please please please I'm begging of Paul Molitor, no more bunting. Please. Especially from the middle of your lineup hitters early in a game. PLEASE. Just say no to bunting.

Yeah, except for all the bunting that prevented us from scoring more runs much earlier in the game.