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nytwinsfan

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Everything posted by nytwinsfan

  1. nytwinsfan
    Nah, Alex Gordon's walk rate was 10.3% last year and is 9.8% for his career: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5209&position=3B/OF
  2. nytwinsfan
    I swear some people act like playing a tough infield position on a professional baseball team is the equivalent of learning to ride a bike. It isn't a matter of "forgetting" how to do it. It is a matter of not getting enough reps and building enough muscle memory to be one of the best 30 people IN THE ENTIRE WORLD at a group of interconnected athletic skills. The same happened with Sano at 3B when he was inexplicably put in RF for multiple months, including spring training. This stuff is incredibly difficult, and even these incredibly talented athletes will fail at it, or at least be further behind in their development, if they don't get as many reps as possible.
  3. nytwinsfan
    ???
  4. nytwinsfan
    This is completely inexcusable, but it is totally on Ryan and Anthony, not Molitor. I'm a lawyer, and in law, we would call this "malpractice." There is no possible way this should fall through the cracks. I simply can't find any excuse that could possible justify this. What a disgrace. The Twins had 3 options and ONLY 3 options for a plan for Polanco: Either (1) Polanco is a SS despite not being a natural fit there and despite some scouts being skeptical he would be able to play tolerable defense there, OR (2) Dozier will DEFINITELY be traded, making room for Polanco, or (3) Polanco will DEFINITELY be traded. Those are the ONLY three options. Notice the word DEFINITELY in (2) and (3). That's because if the Twins were not close to 100% sure Polanco would be traded or Dozier would be traded POLANCO SHOULD HAVE BEEN PLAYING SS EVERY DAY.
  5. nytwinsfan
    You guys are the best. Twins fandom is so much better because of you and your site. Keep up the great work!
  6. nytwinsfan
    He's not a poor defensive catcher at all, and for a catcher he is only a slightly below average hitter.
  7. nytwinsfan
    Agreed. This is the only way everything makes sense.
  8. nytwinsfan
    Not sure about Austin Jackson. He's had reverse splits most of/almost his entire career. If we get another outfielder it should be someone who can platoon with Rosario and Kepler.
  9. nytwinsfan
    Gleeman is talking about teams potentially bunting at will on Sano, but by all scouting accounts I've heard (any my own eye test last year) his forward movement is actually quite good. His weakness seem to be more lateral quickness and his focus. Just a thought.
  10. nytwinsfan
    Granite has a ton of value on D and on the base baths. The fact that he has a decent hit tool and walk rate is just gravy. His one weak tool (and admittedly its pretty weak) is power. But that still makes for a potentially very good 4th outfielder and pinch runner, and possibly even a starting CF if his hit tool advances. He's easily a top 20 Twins Prospect and I'd probably put him 13 or 12.
  11. nytwinsfan
    This would be nearly impossible to measure. Even if you could show that one bad trade was followed by additional bad trades, it would likely be impossible to separate out the effects of (1) a Front Office that is just bad at trades as a general, repeated matter, and (2) an initial or early bad trade leading to additional bad trades through other teams bargaining/negotiating more aggressively because they believe the FO is willing to accept a bad deal. However, this is one of those situations where the absence of evidence should not be taken to imply evidence of absence. There are very good common sense and theoretical reasons to believe that if a team makes clearly bad trades, it will make additional bad trades more likely by undermining the negotiation reputation of the front office. Is this for sure? No, but in the absence of evidence (which I think for the reason above would be almost impossible to come by), it is by far the more reasonable assumption.
  12. nytwinsfan
    In addition to setting the tone of the relationship with Twins' employees, players and fans, not trading Dozier for undervalue also sets a precedent with other teams about Falvey/Levine's unwillingness to give up gratuitous value, and gives their future aggressive positions during trade negotiations more credibility. There is significant longer term value in that as well. As much as we as Twins fans want to win in 2017, 2018 and 2019 because we are rightly tired of this rebuild taking so long, it isn't Falvey/Levine's job to satisfy that want. Their job is, as they correctly see it, to generate "sustainable success." They won't be fired in 2017, 2018 or 2019 for not making the playoffs, as long as there is forward momentum. So all their incentives are targeted towards the next 6-10+ years, not the next 2 or 3. That is as it should be, even though it is extremely frustrating for us.
  13. nytwinsfan
    That's exactly how a game of chicken works.
  14. nytwinsfan
    I'd like to believe that, but it just isn't plausible. First, this is clearly the MO of the new Twins' FO, in which they leak an informal "kicking the tires" call by another team as "very serious interest in Dozier." It has happened at least 3 or 4 times now, including with the Braves previously. I'm sure the Braves and Twins have had discussions at some point, but I'd bet a lot of money it is basically more in the tenor of "if the Dodgers are being unreasonable, how much less unreasonable would we have to be to maybe get Dozier" not, "here's a quality offer for Dozier." Second, I just don't buy that the Braves would pay that much for two years of Dozier when they aren't likely to compete next year, and probably not in 2018 either. If they were two more years into their rebuild, sure I could see them doing that. The only wild card is maybe they are convinced they could get him to sign an extension relatively cheaply given Dozier's connections to the Atlanta area, but that would be pretty speculative and risky. I really think this is more smoke than fire. Sadly.
  15. nytwinsfan
    Just watch, the day you release this the Twins trade Dozier and add two (three?) new prospects . . .
  16. nytwinsfan
    Not sure he's "trash," but I definitely agree he is very overrated.
  17. nytwinsfan
    As much as I hate to admit it, this is a pretty good analysis: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/30/14111094/brian-dozier-twins-mlb-trade-rumors-hot-stove-dodgers-dbacks-second-baseman The Twins' problems are (1) 2nd basemen is such a strong position right now with many good options, and (2) most of the teams that might otherwise want Dozier don't for various reasons (rebuilding or have a quality set option because of (1)). My position continues to be to hope for the best that DaveW is right and we get De Leon, Alvarez and a third lottery ticket, but we can't assume that is legit, so failing that, Twins should draw the line at De Leon, and someone like Verdugo, Diaz or Buehler. I might consider Sheffield as a second piece if the third piece is a good lottery ticket (18, 19 yo with some upside but long ways off). I'm not interested in Stewart as a second piece (unless someone like Lux or Will Smith is a third piece, which seems very unlikely). Also not interested in Calhoun, unless he's a third piece with someone like Sheffield or Stewart. Failing one of these deals, If I were Falvey/Levine, I'd say "no."
  18. nytwinsfan
    Alvarez dominated in low A and Rookie. Stewart was very good at the same levels, but not amazing. That combined with Alvarez's better raw stuff, makes a big difference in their respective values at that point. Alvarez in low A and R: 12.3 K/9, 3.2BB/9, 0.15 HR/9, 2.12 ERA, 1.03 WHIP. Stewart in low A and R: 7.2 K/9, 2.4BB/9, 0.34 HR/9, 2.35 ERA, 1.08 WHIP Also, like Stewart, Alvarez induces a lot of ground balls. He is the rare pitcher who seems to have both very good strikeout pitches and induce a lot of ground balls. That's an incredibly powerful combo if it continues as he progresses to higher levels. All that being said, of course Alvarez still has a ton of risk, but Alvarez is a more valuable prospect after his first year than Stewart was.
  19. nytwinsfan
    Yeah, but that's what Dozier is too, except in the meantime he provides value on the field. I'm not interested in trading Dozier for assets we can then just trade again. Calhoun is an asset, just not a very good one because his positional destination is so limited.
  20. nytwinsfan
    Have zero interest in Calhoun. His bat is pretty legit, but his only realistic position is DH. Just not that valuable. Much rather have Verdugo or Sheffield or Lux or even just Stewart plus a lottery ticket type (e.g., Brito, Heredia).
  21. nytwinsfan
    Which of the big banks did you work for? I worked at a plaintiff's law firm for 3 years pursuing mortgage backed securities cases, so just wanted to know which of my former adversaries I'm dealing with.
  22. nytwinsfan
    Ok, fair enough. I'm just primed by all these people arguing "Mauer isn't clutch" to think the worst of arguments like that. I definitely agree with your point, although I think the larger point is that no hitter - not even Mike Trout or Babe Ruth -- could carry a team with pitching as bad as the Twins' pitching in 2016. It really isn't a knock on Dozier in the slightest that he can't make the Twins a winning team. I do think there is good reason to expect the Twins pitching to be better next year, including (1) regression to the mean, and (2) hopefully a full year of May and Berrios. But it still will probably be one of the worst 5 pitching staffs, so the point still holds.
  23. nytwinsfan
    Ok, I think that's a charitable reading, but I'll play along because I agree with that point. We won't win with this pitching.
  24. nytwinsfan
    So what? You really think Dozier has a tendency to play good when it doesn't matter and play bad when it does? If not, then what is the point of this? If so, aren't you drawing a correlation based on a small sample size correlation?
  25. nytwinsfan
    Wong isn't terrible Dave. He's just incredibly average. Last year his power went down a bit, but he almost doubled his walk rate and his K% decreased slightly. And his defense is above average. He's a perfectly reasonable 2 to 2.5 WAR Second Basemen. Although its not clear where he would fit for the Twins given Polanco. More likely, the Twins would try to flip him. And anyway, its not clear the Twins would get/want Wong back. That being said, I agree that the Dodgers remain the most likely destination for Dozier.
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