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nytwinsfan

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Everything posted by nytwinsfan

  1. nytwinsfan
    Why Not both

    From the album: Noah's Media

  2. nytwinsfan
    some interesting stuff on the Twins and Yu here: https://www.twincities.com/2018/01/20/twins-owner-jim-pohlad-is-a-yu-darvish-fan-hes-a-cool-guy/ "Securing Darvish, 31, could require a commitment of five or more years with an average annual value of $20 million to $25 million. One person familiar with the Twins’ thinking suggested they might stretch as far as $120 million over five years to close the deal with Darvish, but talks continue to play out with the Japanese star and his agent, Joel Wolfe." $120 million over five years would of course be $24 million AAV.
  3. nytwinsfan
    Of all the teams left, by far most worried about the Cubs. Dodgers and Yankees don't scare me.
  4. nytwinsfan
    They already said Rodney is still the closer.
  5. nytwinsfan
    Vince Coleman was never really a plus defender though, just on the basepaths. And Buxton already clearly has much more power than Coleman. Coleman was worth about 11-12 WAR (whether Fangraphs or BR) over his entire career of about 6000 PAs. Buxton has already been worth either 4.6 (fangraphs) or 7.2 (BR) in 1000 PAs. Yes, he has some downside risk (mostly associated with injuries), but he has tons of upside. This isn't even close.
  6. nytwinsfan
    Yes, I agree that the Twins should take cost into account. I'd probably do up to $100-110 million for 7 years or as Nick suggested, $80-90 million for 6.
  7. nytwinsfan
    I don't get it. Do you think defensive and baserunning value are made up concepts that have no basis in reality Thrylos? Why would you possibly decide on a player's value solely based on offense?
  8. nytwinsfan
    Absolutely do this now. 100%. I'd go for 7 or 8 years and fall back to 6 if necessary. 7 years would would buyout 3 years of FA through the 18, 19, 20, 21 controlled season and the 22, 23 and 24 FA seasons. Buxton would then be 31 during his first FA season in 2025.
  9. nytwinsfan
    Thrylos, can you tell us more about who your source is (works for the Twins, etc.?). How credible is this person?
  10. nytwinsfan
    Please stop this. Nick had an obligation to the victim, whose choice it is whether to come forward or not. Of all the people involved who are potentially blame worthy - Sano, his agent, the victim's boss who was apparently there, Nick and Twins Daily are absolutely not among them. You absolutely DO NOT take it upon yourself to report that a woman was assaulted or raped. That is her choice in almost every circumstance (the possible exception being an immediate and clear threat to someone else, which there is no reason to think existed here). Otherwise you potentially put the woman at risk of retaliation and potential legal, employment and personal consequences. She is the one who makes this decision, because she is the one with skin in the game.
  11. nytwinsfan
    This is also relevant. https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/946755197744840704
  12. nytwinsfan
    I also highly recommend Brandon Warne's piece on this. It provides lots of useful context, including research on why women (with good reason) often wait to accuse perpetrators, and just how rare false accusations of rape/assault are.
  13. nytwinsfan
    A lot of attention has been understandably paid to Lewis and Rooker, but I think a lot of people are really sleeping on Enlow, who was a consensus top 30 pick and for some (i.e., Keith Law, who is behind a paywall) a top 14 pick. Yes, his velocity apparently dipped toward the end of the spring, but that's not that uncommon with an 18 year old, and according to reports from the GCL, it was back up later in the summer. Here is what some people said BEFORE the draft: John Sickels: Jim Callis: Mlb.com (Callis, Mayo): Eric Longenhagen (Fangraphs): Also, Bob Sacamento's report from after the draft at the GCL was that Enlow's FB was back in the mid-90s. His whole report is worth reading.
  14. nytwinsfan
    Really enjoyed the Handbook this year guys. Thanks! Haven't been this excited about Twins prospects in a couple of years. Some of the guys in low-A and rookie ball are really quite exciting. As someone who has been worried that the Twins now-open window might end in 2021-22, this gives me hope for at least a decade of good Twins baseaball. I'm not necessarily against trading a few prospects if the return is great, but I hope we keep most of these guys.
  15. nytwinsfan
    Absolutely zero interest in Odorizzi. He's been trending down and was last year basically a number 5 starter. His ERA of 4.14 last year is extremely misleading and is belied by his FIP/xFIP of 5.43/5/10 and his BB rate of 3.83 and HR rate of 1.88. He's trending the wrong way in all kinds of ways. Needless to say his K rate of 7.97 doesn't make up for it. I'll take my chances with Mejia, May, Gonsalves and/or Little, thank you very much.
  16. nytwinsfan
    Yeah, Burdi I can understand, but Bard? That's kind of crazy given his numbers last year.
  17. nytwinsfan
    I'd extend Escobar for a year or two at around $4-5 a year, especially if we get an option. The dude is a versatile utility man who can actually hit, and is by all accounts a great clubhouse presence. I love how even when he strikes out, he often works counts 8-9-10 pitches fouling off 5 or 6 pitches. He really builds that pitch count up for opposing pitchers.
  18. nytwinsfan
    I mean, it is a bit more specific than that. If you look at the tweet he linked, they are literally flying to Texas to meet with him in person.
  19. nytwinsfan
    Uggh:
  20. nytwinsfan
    Really great and thoughtful article Nick. This was helpful to read in thinking about Darvish and the front office more generally.
  21. nytwinsfan
    Well, his K #s certainly are NOT absolute garbage. He's consistently above 11 K/9 in the higher minor leagues (which is as good as Burdi has been the last few years). They probably think they have a shot to fix the issues with his control. If so, he could be pretty good. I'm going to be the contrarian here and say I'd rather try to fix this guy's control and see what his apparently excellent slider can do than have Burdi and his injury issues/risk.
  22. nytwinsfan
    Yeah, but after signing Darvish, signing/trading for another reliever/starter at another $8-15 M a year for a multi-year contract, extending Dozier and Mauer, and extensions for Buxton, and one or two more of our pre-arb guys, that $21 M number is going to come way way up. It would be nice to have enough flexibility next offseason to take stock of where we are, and then spend accordingly, rather than trying to predict where we will be next offseason right now and spending $10 million. Yes, this deal has upside if he recovers completely and quickly from TJ, but that's a HUGE if.
  23. nytwinsfan
    Uggh, not a fan. A year after coming back from TJ is pretty risky. That's a lot of risk for $10 million that could be spent on something else next year.
  24. nytwinsfan
    No, probably not. Archer is going to take a package that probably includes Royce Lewis. He is much more highly regarded than Matt Garza, and rightly so. From 2014 to 2017 he was the 12th best pitcher in the majors in terms of WAR. And he has a great contract. He's gonna be costly.
  25. nytwinsfan
    How about we do that trade for Cole AND we sign Darvish and stup ****ing half-assing it? Why not both? The only good answer is that the Twins have never done something that aggressive before, and frankly, that's a terrible answer.
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