twinsfan34

Good thoughts Old Goat. I know I'd have a good deal of patience for him. To the extent, 5-7 starts he just can't get it done. Johan, can you pitch 2 innings in the bullpen. And if not. So be it. Probably just thankful for those amazing years we had. He should have had 3 Cy Youngs...advanced metrics weren't available soon enough for him. Also, on advanced metrics, would Puckett have won the MVP in 1988 or in 1992. He actually had better WAR than Canseco ('88) and Eckersley ('92) both years.

Nice list. Slight edit. Sano had 35 HR, not 30 And I'd have Berrios lower...

First off – I want to say I really enjoy those who put time into thinking and thinking that is informed (involves some research). I probably have an ‘unfair’ bias (I’m Mathematician, SABR member, work in Analytics) towards those who back up their claims with findings, facts, and well developed theories to those numbers. So I appreciate that. It makes for better thinking, imo. Enjoyed the Correia analysis, shed light on his outings. Personally, I never thought he was terrible and was a decent return on the investment. Could have been worse and more expensive, e.g. Ryan Dempster. But I definitely believe a good defense as you stated can help eliminate a few bad innings and that often is a reason teams make it to the world series and win it. The ball bounces their way. Look at that error and obstruction for the Cardinals win and the home run saving catches in the playoffs versus not. Rick Anderson. I’m not a really a big fan of him. I have very little expertise when it comes to pitching and I threw my shoulder out in high school pitching. Never had stride length coaching, video analysis, etc to correct the strain I was putting on my shoulder. Before long I had acromial ligament tears (works within the rotator cuff) by my senior year of high school. I don't think it was because I pitched on average two games a week or high pitch counts. I think it was a mechanics problem that could have been stopped by proper training (weights, bands) and mechanics when pitching. All that to say, I think a pitching coach is largely responsible for the (pitching motion related) health of his pitchers. They need objective eyes. I needed objective eyes. By the time the pitcher has made it to the pros, they usually have developed the pitches they'll use. A pitching coach, to me, would try to make sure they're not getting off track. I would see video analysis and fine detail as really important. It's the little things in pitching that makes a difference. Who makes the first trip to the mound? The pitching coach. A lot of times it's situational, so and so is up, remember what we talked about, etc etc. But a lot of times I would think it's also minor changes in the game - "you're landing on your heal too much." "Keep your weight back, explode through." "It looks like your release point is a little behind, etc" How to evaluate that - I don't know. Bill Belichick, the Patriots coach, and other coaches seem to make great in-game adjustments. It's more apparent in football and perhaps, in baseball, in the NL, with the pitching position requiring more 'double switches', platoon playing, situational hitting, and hitting matchups. So hire NL managers? I don’t see many of those ‘in-game’ adjustments coming from Anderson’s trips to the mound. I have to think that a pitching coach is more than “You got this champ” psychology. Per the players you mentioned in the Anderson carousel. I didn't think Boof Bonser was much different with us versus not. He was the #29th ranked pitching prospect (2002) which was two years before the Twins acquired him. He had dropped out of the top 100 when the Twins got him. ERA was escalating towards 6 before departure. His career turned for the worse when he tore his rotator cuff and labrum. And he never really recovered. So I wouldn't put him not doing well after the Twins (post injury). And to my earlier point, I put some of being healthy on the pitching coach. I'd be curious the research of Pitching coaches and player injuries, if there's a pitching coach(es) out there who frankly, don't have injured pitchers. To quote another football coach, Bud Grant valued healthy players more than talented players. That is to say, if you're not healthy, it doesn't matter how good you were/are. Johan Santana, it was a salary thing, and the main reason the Red Sox and Yankees didn't bite was because they felt they saw an injury coming along. He won an ERA title his first year after the Twins. So he was good, but then, as expected, the injury came. My belief, if he didn't have the injury, he'd still be a top-3 Cy Young qualifying pitcher year in and year out. Again, how much of Santana's injury could be attributed to Anderson as a pitching coach? I don't know. The research question I had might help shed light on that...it might not. Carl Pavano, had better seasons before the Twins, but he did well with the Twins. I can’t agree or disagree with you on if Anderson helped. Pavano did have two good seasons back to back, something he had not done before. But, he got hurt in 2012 and it actually went undiagnosed for over 3 months! It ended up ending his career. I know the medical staff was on the hook for it. But, again, this is just me, I can’t help but wonder – if the pitching coach is also partly responsible. I at least think he needs to be very knowledgeable here. Kyle Lohse absolutely was way better after leaving the Twins. He wasn’t that good with the Reds or the Phillies. But under Dave Duncan, then with the Cardinals, he substituted a 2-seam fastball for his 4-seam fastball and wasn’t giving away his off-speed stuff anymore and voila! Lohse began posting ERAs in the 3’s. Scott Baker…elbow injury in 2011…then let go. Kevin Slowey…triceps injury in 2010…shoulder strain in 2011…then asked to be a reliever, he balked, then let go… Joe Mays only had 1 good season, the rest he had ERAs over 5! But again…2004…injured…Tommy John surgery… Are we noticing a trend here? R.A. Dickey was mostly in the minor leagues with the Twins and still developing his knuckle. Agree with you, this is a push. Vance Worley, he had some good years before us. I would leave this one as TBD. I think Matt Garza was young with us. He flashed mid 3’s ERA before the trade. He was not seen as a clubhouse fit. I’d say a push here. Francisco Liriano…I’d put him in the “injured under Rick Anderson” category. He finally got healthy and he’s just about as dominant as he was when he healthy. Imagine if the Twins pitching staff didn’t have any of those major injuries? We’d a been .500 this past year with Baker, Slowey, & Liriano still slinging it (pre-injury form) for the Twins. And that would make signing a top FA pitcher or other players a lot more likely to yield results (playoff appearances, playoff wins, etc) Because this is getting long…and I don’t have much knowledge on Bill Smith. I’ll just say, he was aggressive. Right or wrong. And he signed Miguel Sano. If Sano turns out to bop 40+ HR even just one season, I’ll call it a draw for Bill Smith. If he hits 40+ HR more than 4 seasons and posts Killebrew like career numbers, well Mr. Smith, you are a genius.

Jacoby Ellsbury, healthy only 2 of the past 4 seasons, and his agent Scott Boras are prowling the streets of the free agent market with the notion that Carl Crawford's $142M contract is well, "an old contract." Ellsbury who has a career AVG/OBP/SLG .297/.350/.439, a single GG, one season where he hit over 10 home runs, missed two of his last four seasons with injuries, he's 30 years old, and his agent believes he should get upwards of 7 yrs $180M. Scott Boras goes on... 1. Is there new money available that wasn't previously? (TV deals?) 2. Wouldn't Sin-Soo Choo be the cheaper AND the better deal? He's almost the same age (31), likely cheaper, has more power, and has a better a better Bill Jamesian (AVG/OBP/SLG) of .288/.389/.465.

Wieters would likely get $20M+ per season from the Yankees next year...at least that's what Orioles Manager (and ex Yankees manager) Buck Showalter believes. http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/08/01/showalter-if-yanks-dont-have-to-pay-a-rod-matt-wieters-will-be-a-yankee/

I think your reasoning is right. Love the "whatever that means"...part too. Dozier, love the guy. Great clubhouse guy, ethics, leadership, and adds some pop as a 2B. 874 ABs...he's hit .240. I wonder how many guys after that many at-bats have improved their AVG by even...say .030 pts? (.270) Or what's the likelihood he even gets to .260? I almost think the Cubs are more into potential right now. And do they move Castro over with Baez coming up (possible Opening Day Starter to late May call up) or just scrap Castro altogether? The news stories (and the benchings) seem so down on the guy. He's only 23 though.

Cheaper than Price by a mile. I Like Samardzija. But I can't see the Cubs parting with him for less than at least 1 top 30 prospect (Buxton, Sano, Meyer) or 2 in the top 100 (Rosario, Stewart). The Cubs have an awesome farm system, tons of international flyers, and are looking at being a serious contender via the farm system come 2016 and beyond.

I'd be curious the MLB average each year as well. Sort of a 'weighted' average.

Great graph. Design, etc.

I personally don't think the Twins should chase 30+ yr old pitchers. Only exception to 'add an arm' is when you're contending and one piece could make the difference. Here's an article found on a Boston Red Sox forum. Thought it was interesting they, who have little to no need for pitching (they did chase on Ryan Dempster though - which didn't turn out very well) and tried to get a few games out of Jake Peavy (in season trade). Lackey was a signing, ironically, at age 30. So...maybe not something the Red Sox don't do, but something this fan/writer is at least glad they don't have to play that Russian roulette again this year. Per Over the Monster, "The Red Sox thankfully don't need to invest in a Santana or Nolasco, because they've set themselves up to avoid that very thing."

Parker, Thanks for that first person interview. I'm a member of SABR and at every annual SABR Convention since 2001, the committee has recognized a baseball executive who has demonstrated a lifetime commitment to professional baseball scouts and scouting and player development history with presentation of the Roland Hemond Award. The 2013 recipient? Terry Ryan. I do recognize that Bill Smith was with the organization for 20+ years and thus probably has similar thinking as Terry Ryan, Radcliff, et al. Afterall, those were 20+ years together. So these 90 loss seasons are somewhat curious as a result of the layover of during Bill Smith's tenure. Thankful for some of the international signings Bill Smith had (Sano, etc). I'm not too hot on Target Field as a whole. Wish it was more friendly to lefties. For Mauer now, but also as far as fewer players are lefties and we could easily stack our team to be left-handed for those 81 home games. Ultimately, as horrible as it is to try to watch Twins games sometimes, I'm hopeful for some growth signs in 2014 and very excited about what could happen in 2015 and beyond.

In lieu of the possible trade rumors (and likely just rumors) of the Cardinals availability of starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller in hopes of finding a top shortstop. The 2014 rule 5 Draft in June is already being touted as a pitcher heavy draft. The amount of high school pitchers throwing 92+ mph is easily 15 and counting, while the college pitchers heavily populating preliminary mock drafts with some showing as many as 15 1st round college pitchers taken already. It's early I know. Some will fall, but others will rise. All that said. The Lance Lynn or Shelby Miller trades for the likes of Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus leaned towards the Cardinals, yes, the Cardinals, likely having to 'sweeten the pot' to get a top shortstop as they appear to be more limited and thus, by demand more so than historical value, appear to have a greater weighted value in 2014 and indefinitely until there's more shortstops. For perspective, only five full-time (qualified) shortstops hit .280 or above this year. Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Evereth Cabrera, Johnny Peralta, Jordy Mercer, and Jose Iglesias would have made that 11 over .280 had they had enough at-bats. All-in-all, of qualified shortstops, only eight every day shortstops hit over .260. The 2012 season saw 10 shortstops hit over .260, 2011 had 14, and 2010 had 10 respectively. So it's not terribly down, but nonetheless, there seems to be a shared perception SS quality is down. I'm all for the Twins getting another top tier SP - although, our farm system seems to have too many starters vying for starts already as seen in Top 50 Twins Prospects 16-20 thread below below)

The New York Yankees extended qualifying offers to three of their 13 free agents. Robinson Cano, Hiroki Kuroda, and Curtis Granderson. Cano, they clearly were wanting to sign to a multi-year deal before he would hit free agency. Kuroda, they are perhaps not wild about as a 38 year old, but for $14M he's as good a bet as any for a 'decent' season. But Granderson, it would appear that the Yankees extended a qualifying offer to Granderson in hopes of jumping into one of the deepest pitching drafts (pre-liminary) in recent memory. The White Sox were rumored to be interested in Granderson before the QO was made. They coals might have cooled a bit in lieu of the recent news. But, I can't help, but wonder, how serious the Yankees were about signing Granderson. Sorta have a feeling they hope he gets signed rather than coming back for 1 yr at $14.1M. The Reds look to be taking that approach with Choo as GM Walt Jocketty is on record saying if Choo accepted it'd make it very difficult for the team financially. "We thought about it quite a while," Jocketty said. "We'll still be able to attempt to try and sign him, but if he ended up accepting, it would be very tough to fit it into the budget." So, they're clearly hoping to hop on that Draft Pick Gravy Train. That brings me to the other players who received Qualifying offers. Which teams, if any, do you feel are almost 'hopeful' the player who received the QO walks? In all, 13 players received qualifying offers prior to Monday's deadline. Here's the full list: Qualifying offer extended: Carlos Beltran, Cardinals Robinson Cano, Yankees Shin-Soo Choo, Reds Nelson Cruz, Rangers Stephen Drew, Red Sox Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox Curtis Granderson, Yankees Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees Brian McCann, Braves Kendrys Morales, Mariners Mike Napoli, Red Sox Ervin Santana, Royals

My apologies, someone already had started this/a similar thread. For that, go here. http://twinsdaily.com/minnesota-twins-talk/9338-thoughts-hypothesized-trade.html

If you're the Twins, do you make a call, and, if so, what's your offer? http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/11/03/cardinals-could-trade-lance-lynn-or-shelby-miller-this-offseason-for-a-new-shortstop/ If I'm Texas, I call them and offer Andrus.

I love Joe Mauer. He's 30 and he's going to be 31 starting next season. Catchers who are good receivers can 'hang around' for a number of years. Mauer would be able to DH plenty well. I'm sure he'd hit .300+ every year. I'm not one to say if that's a power number the Twins would want at DH. I doubt Mauer would ever like to leave MN. He had a chance to as a High School prospect, but didn't. He had a chance as a pro, but didn't. Yankees would have paid him even more than the generous contract the Twins gave him. So I guess my hope is that by the time Mauer is 33 (2016(, the Twins are in the discussion as early season as one of a couple teams to represent the AL in the World Series. We'd have to sign 1-2 starting pitchers who are in the mix that year. And the hopefuls of Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Vargas, Harrison, Kepler, Hicks, Arcia, Polanco, Santana, Walker, et al plus a few veteran signings are able to put up 5+ runs a game. I did some more queries...going back to 1990 Drafts. It seems that more college players make the pros, but they don't perform as well as the High School players. (Based on WAR) It's only preliminary. The likelihood is for college players, you only have to improve a 'small' amount to get a cup of coffee in the pros, whereas a high schooler has much more to do. There's a number of other factors along the way. The other note is that college pitchers are also more often thrown into being a reliever if they don't see them likely to make the pros quickly. And the thought, perhaps, is that 3-4 more years of college didn't develop that 3rd pitch, so bullpen it is as they're inching towards 24-26 years of age before they hit The Show. High school athletes, it seems teams are more willing to try to develop that 3rd and/or 4th pitch. So if that goes well for them, they become starters and if that development (professional coaching versus college coaching) goes very well, they also get a greater payback than what seems to be a large amount of college pitchers doing bullpen duty for a various number of seasons. (harder to earn WAR) I need to look up that book/study. I found Paul DePodesta. He isn't the GM, but since joining the Mets in 2010, they went very 4YR player heavy in 2010, but have deviated greatly in 2011, 2012, and 2013. And in 2013 he drafted (or the Mets) drafted more HS players than college players, including their top 4 picks. He opted for the top high school hitter, Dominic Smith, over the top college hitter ("most polished") in D.J. Peterson. Peterson looks great, btw. Thanks for doing this study by the way. Fun stuff to think on. This is probably why Terry Ryan isn't 'sold out' on sabermetrics/analytics/etc. Ironically, as much crap as he gets, SABR gave him the Roland Hemond Award, which recognizes the baseball executive who has demonstrated a lifetime commitment to professional baseball scouts and scouting, and player development history.

A quick run through... I found it difficult on how to deal with players who were signed out of HS in other countries - since they weren't through the Rule 4 Draft, I kept them separate. Breakdown of Pitching Prospects who received at least 1 Cy Young vote in the last 10 years (2003-2012) follows as: [TABLE=width: 214] Type Total Cy Young 4YR 57 8 I-FA 6 0 CC 9 0 HS 56 8 I-HS 29 4 I-FA (HS) 1 0 [/TABLE] I don't see that as really showing one is particularly better than the other. Maybe a stat on HS/College picks in the top 10 rounds, top 20 rounds, etc in terms of making it to the majors as well? But over the past 10 years, it's 8 CY Young's a piece. If you count International High School players (there are those who went to college as well - mostly in Asian countries) it would definitely say pursue high school athletes. All that to say...I'd have no problem if the Twins draft Tyler Kolek next year at #5.

I have done some preliminary research on this...but since maybe it's already been done. So college pitchers are more "successful" as a whole than high school pitchers? - By 'successful' - do they mean made it to the pros? - What they do when they get there? ERA's under 3.00, WHIP, etc - Career numbers? Also, does this include only during the Draft ERA? or 1986 on? I have done some studies on position players, and it would seem the opposite. Are international amateur free agents (ages 16-18) in a separate category than 'high school' kids? Though, most of which are in high school, only in the Dominican, Puerto Rico, Venezeula, etc.

Thanks. Impressive indeed. I hope Walker turns out, I know there's a lot of folks who don't think he makes enough contact. I thought this article on Joey Gallo by Conor Glassey was great. It evaluated strikeout rates at Class A, of which Adam Brett Walker also spent this past season. Adam's strikeout rate per plate appearance is 20.8%, which isn't outlandish. Taking A Swing At Minor League Strikeout Numbers | Conor Glassey As you can see players such as Giancarlo Stanton, Andres Galarraga, Troy Glaus, Paul Goldschmidt, Ryan Howard, Chris Davis, and Pedro Alvarez among others had higher strikeout rates. He's only 21, so he's a little under the average age for the Midwest League. Curious where he starts next year. Ft. Myers? If so, he'd still be ahead of the curve age wise as the average age last year was 22.8 years old. 2013 Florida State League Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

Here's an article by Baseball America that shows how scouts have seen 300 at bats of Jose Abreu. Scouts Have Extensive History With Jose Abreu - BaseballAmerica.com

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN has a great feature article on Jose Abreu. Seems like most comparisons go along the lines of Viciedo and Morales. Maybe hits more power than Morales, but not as good of a bat. His walks rates are inflated quite a bit. He didn't walk once in the World Baseball Clinic. Also, his walk totals are very much inflated by his high IBB totals. This from a Grantland article. "His stats have been inflated somewhat by intentional walks (a league-leading 32 in 2009-10, and 21 last season) and hit-by-pitches (30 in 2009-10, 21 last season, though Abreu might have an easier time sustaining high HBP numbers than league-leading intentional walk totals in the majors). Even Abreu's hit tool, while playable, might not be superstar-level."

How did they do it? What were the changes? How does a team 'unload' most of it's talent and not really seem to acquire much more, yet, come out on top as it seems the Red Sox have done. The 1991 Minnesota Twins went from 'worst to first'...as did the Atlanta Braves that year. The 2012 Red Sox had: Carl Crawford ($102.5M over the next 5 yrs) Adrian Gonzalez ($127M over the next 6 yrs, Red Sox pay $3.9M/yr thru '15) Marlon Byrd Josh Beckett ($31.5M over the next 2 yrs) Kevin Youkilis ($12M) Aaron Cook Saisuke Matsuzaka ($10M) Cody Ross ($26M over next 3 yrs) Mike Aviles ($6 over next 2 yrs) Cook and Matsuzaka stunk. So they wouldn't have been back either way. James Loney, acquired in the Dodgers trade, was let go. They only have one prospect (BA's #71 for 2013) in P Allen Webster to show for that trade. The 2013 Red Sox acquired: Stephen Drew (FA, 1yr/$9M, 3.1 WAR) Johnny Gomes (FA, 2y/$10M, 1.2 WAR) Mike Napoli (FA, 1y/$13M, 4.1 WAR) Shane Victorino (FA, 3yr/$39M, 6.1 WAR) Ryan Dempster (FA, 2yr/$26.5M, -1.7 WAR) Koji Uehara (FA, 2yr/$9.25M, 3.6 WAR) Mike Carp (Trade, 1yr/508K, 1.3 WAR) Late season trade: Jake Peavy (2yr/$29M, 0.6 WAR, 10g played) The players who moved WAR contributions: Adrian Gonzalez - 2012 ~ 3.5 WAR, 2013 ~ 3.9 WAR Carl Crawford - 2012 ~ 0.5 WAR, 2013 ~ 1.7 WAR Kevin Youkilis - 2012 ~ 1.6 WAR, 2013 ~ -0.2 WAR Cody Ross - 2012 ~ 1.9 WAR, 2013 ~ 2.5 WAR Mike Aviles - 2012 ~ 2.3 WAR, 2013 ~ 0.6 WAR Josh Beckett - 2012 ~ 1.1 WAR, 2013 ~ -0.8 WAR And they're in pretty good shape for 2014 with a lot of salary flexiblity in that Napoli, Drew, Ellsbury, Saltamacchia, Hanrahan, and Matt Thornton are all coming off the books. I'm sure they'll try to sign, in order, Ellsbury, Napoli, and Saltamacchia. That's $49.5M to still arrive at their $154M number for 2014. Jackie Bradley should provide some value as a 2nd year MLB prospect, who knows, maybe he'd have to replace Ellsbury if they don't sign him. Bogaerts should add value to 3B, if not win ROY as well. The only thing better they could have done was keep Byrd or Ross instead of signing Johnny Gomes. And not sign Ryan Dempster. But is it just me, or was that off-season not all that impressive? If anything, it would seem like they would have had another losing season as it seemed more talent went out the door than what came in the door. What, if at all, would this look like in action on the Minnesota Twins?

Question: Which would have given most of the Twins fans on here the bigger jolt. The signing of Abreu or Mike Napoli?