twinsfan34

Looks like Ft Myers is making room by promoting Byron Buxton to AA A move we expected 4 months earlier... #WhatMightHaveBeen

Two days after walking 7 hitters in 2 innings, Trevor May throws a No Hitter (in AAA)...has to be some sort of MLB history there. It was a combined No hitter with Logan Darnell of a rain out delay from earlier in the year. Amazing. Box: http://www.milb.com/...=g_box&sid=milb

Two days after walking 7 hitters in 2 innings, Trevor May throws a No Hitter (in AAA)...has to be some sort of MLB history there. It was a combined No hitter with Logan Darnell. Box: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2014_07_24_rocaaa_dubaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

I love TwinsDaily I visit TwinsDaily at least 3-5 times a day. I read a bit of what TD is. And as far as what it wants to be - well - I imagine you guys are doing what like doing. Parker seems to really like the analytical stuff - or subtleties in pitching to SD Buhr seems to cover (perhaps lives in Cedar Rapids) Kernels baseball - has some "deeper than the boxscore" insights. Content - Websites I visit milb.com, espn.com, mlb.com, fangraphs.com, mlbfarm.com, and any other website related to minor league baseball. I have the MiLB At-Bat app on my phone and I have most of the top 50 prospects teams' followed on my phone. I check all the Twins Minor League Teams. I feel since this is not a "Online Newspaper" and the fact that there's already tons of coverage for the MLB club (perhaps certain press privileges too) - we don't need 'extra' Twins coverage. I think the Twins part, the MLB club, could be more of a "forum" type feel while TD could develop other areas as the "go to" website for those areas. 1. Minor League Coverage Maybe some beat writers for specific teams - much easier access to photo opps, interviews, "more than the boxscore" insights or game accounts. If a writer or writers keeps a single team or two teams can perhaps give a fuller scope/view of the development of those teams/players.Further MiLB coverage as a whole - Matchups/Players to watch for in the games. e.g.2. Articles/Forums The Articles, at some point, shouldn't be so busy (this page: http://twinsdaily.com/). Similar to the right side of ESPN where you have 10 hyperlinks. Then have the pictures (currently on the articles) at the page for that article. I feel I miss so much content - I often find it weeks later - because I couldn't find everything that was written the day it was written. The Forum route leads to the Index page (http://twinsdaily.com/index) which leads to MLB or MiLB, which is fairly readable. So I feel I miss the Articles because they're so bulky at this point. Articles by Topic type - similar to http://fangraphs.com - I'd love to see the Articles in a sort of sorted column for it's content type - whatever those may be - Twins - MiLB - Analytics - NotBaseball - Fantasy Baseball categories, etc - whatever is decided. 3. TwinsDaily - The Community TD is kind of a community, we recognize the names of the contributors and the commentors - many of us do. And many of us, myself included, are Twins fans from afar (I'm in Dallas). But even those in the TC area - it seems they'd like ways to connect for a beer, a game, or whatever. Maybe that's linking Meetup.com or if members wish, much like SABR, to put general contact information. Either way - perhaps a more visible or 'user friendly' way to have this visible or a part of TD might be useful. Heatmaps (city only) or whatever people are comfortable with location wise. We can put it in our signatures as well. But it looks like some people are wanting something more crowd sourcing up to the minute type of setups. Can log on, find people, I'm here. Some do this on the game threads. Maybe just encourage it to be done there as well, then PM, etc.4. Fantasy Sports As far as Fantasy Baseball. I might be able to help there. I'm a database engineer for a Fantasy Sports startup (in our 2nd year) and we're developing the baseball for next year. We have the NFL and NBA right now. The nice thing about our drafts is they're weekly and you can have as many of your 'friends' on your list (compete against) as you want. As you participate in a 10 team league, 1 human against 9 computers and you get a fantasy score per week. You can win $$, no cost. The website is Skyllzone.com. Can try the NFL or NBA this Fall/Winter...see if you like it. Could have a TwinsDaily GlobalLeaderBoard. Willing to try to help try to make this something if they want something more than a season-long roster for a fantasy draft. Personally, with the length of the MLB season - I think it's a better format. Also, Yahoo and ESPN formats are kinda isolated to only a max of 20 teams. This way you can get 200+ people in the same 'competition' and access their scores/stats, etc.P.S. If anyone signs up, can PM me and I can help get you started, answer questions, etc. as far as the NFL season. MLB is still in development. (actually would love some Fantasy Baseball input for our platform released next spring) 5. Twins Daily - What can we do for you? How can I support you guys? What are things you guys would like from us? I personally could do more than just comment on a lot of things. And I would be willing to do more if I have something that would make TD better.Does TD have a "wish list"?

Glad to see it, but kinda surprised the Twins would announce it this early...in affect tipping their hand and them being able to prep their hitters more than they would should he had been a 'day before' callup type of scenario.

Lightfoot, some great stats. Thanks for that. .289...makes .248 not look so bad. To the runs scored point, Walker is a very good baserunner (much like Dozier)...he seems to advance a base when others wouldn't, steal a base in situations that are required/needed...and then his hits typically are of a higher slugging % variety. I think he's fine at A+ this year and I think he'll start next year at AA. He'll be a 'slower' path to the big leagues, but I think he'll get there. Jose Abreu, a much better hitter than Walker is similar, scores a good deal of runs, lots of RBI, but a very low OBP. He's been on fire to get his average up over .300, but still his OBP is only .330. For perspective, that's a lower OBP than Aaron Hicks, who hit .185. So he's a different kind of player. Is that a player valuable enough to the Twins to put him on the MLB roster? I don't know. Perhaps a matter of philosophy. Just like the A's sold Cespedes rather easily (not a high OBP% guy) for a half a season Lester rental, the Twins may not regard players like Walker with much regard. Perhaps rightly so. I like Walker, from everything I've read on the guy - wonderful character, not entitled, a willing learner. I think he'll be as good as he can be and not be a hindrance to whatever that may be unlike many athletes who are their own worst enemies. I see a similar 'success' for Walker at AA next year. He'll be 23 next year in a league that averages 24.7 to 25.8 on average. So he'll be almost 2 years younger than most of the league. For perspective, Aaron Hicks is 24 in AA. So he could 'toil' for 2 years and still be at the Hicks level of development. I think it's probably the best bet, if we're going to see Walker play MLB, he'll be 24-25 when that happens.

Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN Kurt Suzuki gets $12m over two years in an extension from the Twins, plus vesting option for 2017 based on PAs. I can live with that.

Man...if the Tigers got Price for Austin Jackson and Drew Smyly...they robbed the Rays, even if they only have him this year and next year's $15-18M arbritation rated season.

Welp, Suzuki was the only 'action' Twins fans got...curious the terms on the extension. Hope it's only 2 years...at no more than $7M per. (aka Salty annual haul) Even so, feel that's a bit high.

Dave you may be right, I could be misinterpreting the baseball-reference link. Maybe when it says "2015" it means for the 2015 Free Agency period, not after 2015 season.

Andrew Miller is being traded to the Orioles...curious to see how expensive he was - other than Parmalee - the guy is lights out on LH's. He's a free agent after 2015. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/millean01.shtml

Other than Johnson (3) and Darnell (1) have the Twins had any other LH starts this year? Would that be the lowest ever? Question: Are you Over or Under for Milone getting that many (4) MLB starts this year?

Wonder if we could put Nolasco on trade waivers. You want him, come get him!! For "Cash Considerations" aka a bag of balls.

Ah!! Good call! - that was a change at the last bargaining agreement...or one of the more recent. So a hefty price to pay...

Beane's trades in and of themselves are not typically great and he's been fleeced on such trades as Matt Holiday and Carlos Gonzalez, in which he litterally had nothing in MLB production to show for those players. He's also spent $10M on Ben Sheets to not get a MLB pitch out of him. BUT, what Beane has done that very few GMs have done is not get 'nothing' ouf of his pending FA's or players going to Arbitration (more a Tampa Rays trait than an Oakland trait though). Let's hope the Twins can do the same with Suzuki, Willingham, Correia, etc. IF they're a player you want and can't sign to an extension or a player that a team may want, get something in return. That's the art of Beane. He minimizes his losses. He doesn't lose outright. Take in point with Lester - he's not going to resign him - or highly unlikely - however, he'll gladly lay down a $14.1M (or $15-ish) qualifiying offer for Lester. If he returns, one of the best playoff SPs in baseball is on the team for another playoff run, if not, sandwich pick in the 1st round of the 2015 draft.

Given (hopeful) trade of Suzuki and Willingham. Be nice to throw in Corriea. I can't see Buxton in any scenario...even if he hits 88 for 88 in his last 88 At-bats. I mentioned the trades in that they need to be in place and for non 40-man roster players (e.g. not like Pryor from SEA) to add guys like Alex Meyer. So my guys are guys that are already on 40-man roster. The Candidates: SS/CF - Santana C/DH - Pinto RF/LF/DH - Arcia P - May SS - Polanco 1B/DH - Vargas I personally think the positions most in doubt for next year are CF, SS, and C. And those are the 3 most expensive positions in FA. So I'd like to see us try to figure out which of our young guys at those positions can play those positions. Santana in CF/SS. If the plan is to put him in CF, then Polanco should be up playing SS until he loses all confidence or looks lost. I think Pinto needs to put in and play 2-3-4 weeks in a row. See how he plays as a regular. He's got a better arm than Suzuki...just seemed flustered and lacked confidence as he didn't throw out his initial few runners. I don't know what to do about Arcia. They say BB and K rates are the most easily discernable and unchanging in prospects (they: SABR) and can be picked up in as little as 500 PAs. I don't know if his problem is his approach. Which can be taught more so, aka don't swing until you see a fastball or a strike...then whatever contingencies fit best for that pitcher/hitter situation. Or is it just his pitch recognition (tougher to teach). This again is more in the approach where most of the 'growth' is seen - just knowing pitchers tendencies - e.g. Phil Hughes is 80% likely to throw a 92-94 mph fastball first pitch, middle half of the plate. Either way, I like a Twins team where he's a top contributor. He's got fire, he's got a decent arm in RF and he seems to be in the game. That leaves Varas, May, and Meyer....if I only get 5. I'd honestly like to see May then...and if the Willingham trade doesn't yield another 40-man roster guy, then Meyer. I'm not as curious about Vargas.

How did the most successful teams of 2013 make it to the playoffs? Was it through the Farm System/Draft, Free Agency, or Trades? Any guesses which was the most expensive of the 3 areas? And which was the most successful (regardless of salary)? Download attachment: Wainwright_Adam_champagne_US_720.jpg Below are the 2013 rotations which are ordered by post-season rotation order and then secondarily, for the #4 & #5 starters, by their contributions during the regular season. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Boston Red Sox Jon Lester – Farm system – $11.625M – 15-8 W-L 3.75 ERA 213.1 IP 177 SO John Lackey – FA - $16.5M – 10-13 W-L 3.52 ERA 189.1 IP 161 SO Clay Buchholz – Farm system – $5.5M – 12-1 W-L 1.74 ERA 108.1 IP 96 SO Felix Doubront – Farm system – $519K – 11-6 W-L 4.32 ERA 162.1 IP 139 SO Ryan Dempster – FA – $13.25M – 8-9 W-L 4.57 ERA 171.1 IP 157 SODetroit Tigers Justin Verlander – Farm System - $20M 13-12 W-L 3.46 ERA 218.1 IP 217 SO Max Scherzer – Trade - $6.7M – 21-3 W-L 2.90 ERA 214.1 IP 240 SO Anibal Sanchez – Trade - $8.8M – 14-8 W-L 2.57 ERA 182 IP 202 SO Doug Fister – Trade - $4M – 14-9 W-L 3.67 ERA 208.2 IP 159 SO Rick Porcello – Farm System - $5.1M 13-8 W-L 4.32 ERA 177 IP 142 SOOakland Athletics Bartolo Colon – FA - $3M – 18-6 W-L 2.65 ERA 190.1 IP 117 Sonny Gray – Farm system - $490K – 5-3 W-L 2.67 ERA 64 IP 67 SO Jarrod Parker – Farm System (trade w/ ARZ as Class AA, #26 Overall Prospect) - $495K - 12-8 W-L 3.97 ERA 197 IP 134 SO AJ Griffin – Farm System - $493K – 14-10 W-L 3.83 ERA 200 IP 171 SO Dan Straily – Farm System - $493K – 10-8 W-L 3.96 ERA 152.1 IP 124 SOTampa Bay Rays David Price – Farm System – $10.1m – 10-8 W-L 3.33 ERA 186.2 IP 151 SO Matt Moore – Farm System – $1M – 17-4 W-L 3.29 ERA 150.1 IP 143 SO Alex Cobb – Farm System – $502K – 11-3 W-L 2.76 143.1 IP 134 SO Jeremy Hellickson – Farm System – $503K – 12-10 W-L 5.17 ERA 174 IP 135 SO Chris Archer – Farm System - $500K – 9-7 W-L 3.22 ERA 128.2 IP 101 SOAtlanta Braves Kris Medlen – Farm System - $505K – 13-9 W-L 3.21 ERA 204.2 IP 181 SO Mike Minor – Farm System - $2.6M – 15-12 W-L 3.11 ERA 197 IP 157 SO Julio Teheran – Farm System - $490K – 14-8 W-L 3.20 ERA 185.2 IP 170 SO Paul Maholm – Trade - $6.5M – 10-11 W-L 4.41 ERA 153 IP 105 SO Tim Hudson – Trade - $9M – 8-7 W-L 3.97 ERA 131.1 IP 95 SOLos Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw – Farm System - $11M – 16-9 W-L 1.83 ERA 236 IP 232 SO Zack Greinke – FA - $19M – 15-4 W-L 2.63 ERA 177.2 IP 148 SO Hyun-jin Ryu FA - $6M – 14-8 W-L 3.00 ERA 192 IP 154 SO Ricky Nolasco – Trade - $11.5M – 13-11 W-L 3.70 ERA 199.1 IP 165 SO Chris Capuano – FA - $6M – 4-7 W-L 4.26 ERA 105.2 IP 81 SOPittsburgh Pirates Francisco Liriano – FA - $1M – 16-8 W-L 3.02 ERA 161 IP 163 SO AJ Burnett – FA - $16.5M – 10-11 W-L 3.30 ERA 191 IP 209 SO Gerrit Cole – Farm System - $490K 10-7 W-L 3.22 ERA 117.1 IP 100 SO Jeff Locke – Farm System (Trade w/ Braves when in Class A) - $498K – 10-7 W-L 3.52 ERA 166.1 IP 125 SO Charlie Morton – Trade - $2M – 7-4 W-L 3.26 ERA 116 IP 85 SOSt. Louis Cardinals Adam Wainwright – Farm System (trade w/ Braves as Class AA, #18 Overall Prospect) - $12M - 19-9 W-L 2.94 ERA 241.2 IP 219 SO Shelby Miller – Farm System - $490K 15-9 W-L 3.06 ERA 173.1 IP 169 SO Michael Wacha – Farm System - $490K 4-1 W-L 2.78 ERA 64.2 IP 65 SO Joe Kelly – Farm System $493K – 10-5 W-L 2.69 ERA 124 IP 79 SO Lance Lynn – Farm System - $513K – 15-10 W-L 3.97 ERA 201.2 IP 198 SOSo if you were tallying, you would get this breakdown of the rotations by team: Download attachment: 2013 Playoff Starting Rotations Breakdown.jpg All but two had their ace come through their farm system. Bartolo Colon and Francisco Liarino have proved to be one-year wonders. And at $3M and $1M respectively, they were steals, but hardly predictable contributors. Apart from those two free agent finds, six free agents combined for a 61-52 W-L record, while having a combined price tag of $77.25M. Add Liriano and Colon back to the mix and it's 95-66. Here's a look over the past 4 years of FA starting pitcher to back up the post-season numbers from this year. Download attachment: Free Agency - Pitchers Breakdown.jpg One could run a little optimization application to figure out the optimal price to pay for Free Agent Pitching. (I'll run this later) Lesson: Don't overpay for Free Agents. Only in 2011 did the highest paid free agent starting pitcher, Cliff Lee, have the most wins. So what's the best method for teams, including the Twins, in 2014 (and beyond) to develop a pitching staff? Farm System Cheap FA flyers Continue to add more power arms via 2014 MLB Draft Trades that yield prospectsMaybe, just maybe, Terry Ryan doesn't sound like such a stooge anymore. Click here to view the article

He was hard to hit tonight, as Shane said...10 K's in 5 2/3. Just keeps improving. Rough start for JO though.

weird..it says this was posted today. This is ST material.

Glad to see Gonsalves up and have a great start at Cedar Rapids. Any updates on Kohl as far as being shut down, precautionary skip, etc? Reading boxscores and readups like this remind me how weird things turn out than what I would have projected. To see Jorge Polanco, already have a few cups of coffee in the big leagues and at AA, while Byron Buxton is still at Ft. Myers. Alex Meyer still not up with the MLB club yet. Glad to see Tanner English back...maybe he and Max Murphy could end up in Cedar Rapids sometime soon.

It was announced on Friday that the Chicago White Sox signed Jose Abreu to a 6 year $68 million dollar deal. Download attachment: adam-dunn-strikeout.jpg Let’s not get our undies in a bunch over the Chicago White Sox signing of Adam Dunn, Part II. First a little on our midwest American League Central neighbors. Lest we forget, this is the same White Sox management that signed Adam Dunn to a 4yr/$56M deal. Adam Dunn. Jose Abreu. Well, that's another "donkey" in the stable in Chi-town. So let’s look elsewhere to consider if this is a worthy investment. Let’s look at the teams who throw money to the wind when the air of free agency comes in. The New York Yankees have $22.25M coming off the books at 1B/DH alone (Lyle Overbay, Travis Hafner, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Youkilis). Add another $15M if you count Curtis Granderson and 33% timeshare of his playing time at DH. Then factor in the retiring Andy Pettite’s $13M. The Yankees, believe it or not, have money to spend for 2014. That’s just over $50M cool annually starting in 2014. A-Rod's pending suspension could add even more to the pot. The Boston Red Sox, never a stranger to spend, also have a possible $13M in free money available in that Mike Napoli’s contract expires at year's end. You would think for $2M less they’d take a gander at Abreu, unless they think he couldn’t at least duplicate Napoli’s stat line of .259 AVG 23 HR 92 RBI in 498 at-bats. The Texas Rangers are not likely to bring back Lance Berkman and thus his $11M would be free to spend on Abreu. Wouldn’t Texas be a little more appealing to Abreu? A perennial contender to advance to the World Series, strong Spanish speaking leadership (Adrian Beltre et al), closer to Cuba, warmer weather, etc. But, they passed on him. A few other big money spenders include the New York Mets and the San Francisco Giants. The Mets have $25.5M coming off the books in Johan Santana. The Giants meanwhile have $35.2M coming off the books in Tim Lincecum & Barry Zito (possibly another $7M if the team doesn’t exercise Ztio’s 2014 option). Even if they were to re-sign those players at half their previous salary that would leave over $20M per season to lure Abreu to the Bay area. So let’s consider the numbers. Unfortunately we don’t really have a full idea of how the Cuban leagues stack up against MLB. For perspective, most of the pitchers in Cuba throw between 80-85 mph, which is about the average speed of most high school starting pitchers. In the Cuban National Series (their baseball league) they had only two pitchers with a K/9 ratio over 7 (Alain Tamayo and Ismel Jimenez). Twins fans are very familiar with "pitch to contact" and that's exactly the type of league Abreu played in while in Cuba. Clay Davenport, founder of the Baseball Prospectus, and renown baseball sabermetrician, likens the “Cuban Serie Nacional” unto 'Low-A' ball competition. Byron Buxton finished in 'High-A' last year for the Ft. Myers Miracle. The next best option for comparison is this spring’s 2013 World Baseball Classic. Abreu did manage to hit .360 (9-for-25) with three home runs and nine RBIs. Those sound like decent numbers, until you compare them to the average performer at the WBC. The batting average of qualified players in the WBC was .374. That is, the average player hit .374 (368 for 984). The average player was .014 better than Abreu. Justin Morneau hit .636 (7 for 11) at the Classic. Michael Saunders hit .727 (8 for 11). Sure you can find other big leaguers who did better or worse than Abreu in the Classic. The batting average is something scouts can overlook as it's reasonable to expect a poor five game stretch. A better indicator for scouts than batting average is often a player's plate discipline and strikeout ratio. Download attachment: Jose Abreu WBC.jpg Jose Abreu in his 25 at-bats at the WBC did not walk even once. The rest of the league walked at a 10.8% rate. How about strikeout%? Other WBC hitters struck out an average of 13.9% of the time. Abreu? He struck out 20% of the time. He struck out 20% of the time despite not facing a single MLB pitcher during the tournament. (For those of you keeping track at home, Abreu whiffed in his only AB against Masarhio Tanaka. But then again, all six outs Tanaka recorded against the Cuban team were strikeouts.) Download attachment: Jose Abreu vs Chris Colabello.JPG Can Abreu be something more than Adam Dunn, Part II? Sure. So, even if he does end up producing better than Adam Dunn, those Twins fans pining for higher SO/9 from Twins pitchers can celebrate the 20 games of the year they will be pitching to Abreu, who is sure to strike out more than 20% of the time against 'real' MLB pitchers. I don't think Twins fans should be sad to see them pass on Abreu. In fact, this is where Twins fans should start to smile. Because in that very same World Baseball Classic, one Chris Colabello hit just as well. But Colabello did it against actual MLB pitching, including HRs off Edinson Volquez and Scott Mathieson to boot! And Colabello is not a liability in the field like Abreu. Also, as if this deal could not get any sweeter, we got Colabello under contract for $500k a year! Go ahead Twins fans, feel free to pinch yourself now. Click here to view the article

How often have teams made adjustments like this one in the past? PP* you mean LH hitters right?

Every top publication has Stewart in their top 50 midseason rankings, most in their top 30. They talk to scouts, they scout themselves. Just saying. No worries here. Carlos Rodon struck out the equivalent of appy league hitters at 10.6 K/9 his Freshman season at NC State. http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=carlos-rodon Aaron Nola struck out exactly 9 per 9 innings his freshman season. http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=aaron-nola Jeff Hoffman as a 19 year old only struck out 6.7 hitters per 9 innings at East Carolina (think even lower than appy league competition). And he's considered a strikeout pitcher at age 21. http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=jeff-hoffman-2 Brandon Finnegan, considered a strikeout pitcher, only 8 k/9 as a 19 year old in college ball. http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=jordan-queja Jon Gray, Mr Velocity, Mr Strikeout pitcher. As a 19 year old at a juco college (Eastern OK State College), barely striking out 10 hitters per 9 innings. http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=jonathan-gray Mark Appel, last year's #1 overall pick. As a 19 year old soph at Stanford only struck out 7 hitters per 9 innings. http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Mark-Appel Andrew Heaney got destroyed as a Fr at OK St...only 7 k/9 as well http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Andrew-Heaney It's a bit like that Shakespeare play, "Much Ado About Nothing" Kohl Stewart is playing against much better competition and has about equal strikeout rates against better competition than 'top strikeout pitchers'. The scouts mostly rank him top 30 of all prospects and he hasn't even spent a full year in the minor leagues. Also, here's an article on top prospects and how they've fared. http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013/12/death-to-tinstaapp-updating-mckinneys.html

Good stuff. Appreciate the research on this rather obscure information.

Diaz, Tapia, and Tovar are considered their top prospects correct? Who else would have MLB projections?