twinsfan34
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Everything posted by twinsfan34
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I agree. And I think this hope isn't just being a Twins homer. To add to the aforementioned list I would also think Polanco will stick. He can hit and he's a tough out. Where he'll play defensively is the question. But he'll be a big improvement and offer a lot more consistency than Santana. Berrios is going to be a player. I'm just amazed Hicks has played this well. Kepler is on the 40-man, hope to see him sometime this Fall. Granted space is limited if Hicks & Rosario are playing well. Gonsalves was unhittable again tonight in Ft Myers (literally). And a few of those 45 relief pitchers they selected in the past couple years have to pan out.
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I will say Ryan surprised me in acquiring a future all-star clean-up hitter and all-star center fielder at least a year before I expected to see either in the Twins lineup. As far as "do something", let's not kid ourselves - this Twins team can't compete in the Playoffs with the Starting Pitching we have. Just like the teams of the 2000's, the Twins would at BEST, hope for 1 win in 5 games. Phil Hughes isn't going to get us 2 wins in a playoff series. And he may not even get us one. If Hughes, Santana, & Gibson are the #3, #4, & #5 guys in the rotation, this is a playoff contender, not pretender. But as it stands, that's the #1, #2, #3 guys (in some order). But this Terry Ryan is much different than the one I've seen over the years. Signing 3 pitchers to $10M/yr contracts. Bringing up Buxton, Rosario, Sano, and now Polanco. Buxton wasn't even on the 40-man. In all my years, not since the early 1980's (HrBek, Eisenreich, Puckett, Brunansky) have I seen such a influx of 21 and 22 year olds on the roster. With the parity of baseball today, it's amazing how so many teams can get a 'taste' of the postseason. I'm hopeful for the future. The Tigers are on the downswing. White Sox overpaid for some stiffs. Astros are going to be tough, but there's room at the top and the Twins could be in many pennant races in the next 5-10 years.
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Instead of trades, why not try to see if guys like Jose Berrios, Brandon Peterson, Tyler Duffey, AJ Achter, et al could do a Brandon Finnegan type role in the 8th for the Twins? Too bad the Twins didn't select Aaron Nola last year. And ironically, this is about the time I would have guessed (expected?) Nick Burdi to be ready.
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15 years is too much for me. Guy just had Tommy John surgery. He might be a DH only the rest of his career. Which is not the worst thing. Let's look at a highly possible, yet very good (maybe best?) case scenario for Sano. His first three years would be approximately, $507K (2015), $512 (2016), $515 (2017) then arbitration kicks in is where it gets whacky. Player's bid vs team's bid. IF Sano hits 40 HR in year 3, he could ask (and get) $10M+ for these 3 years pretty easily. Neil Walker and Dexter Fowler, among others, are already getting $8M-$9M. So, going along with a good/best case scenario for Sano, that is 35-45 HR in 2017 (I'd love this to be the case), he could easily ask for and get $10M-$15M here. And well, by his 3rd arb year, perhaps $20M. Let's say this is the scenario, $500K (x), $10M, $15M, $20M. That would equate to 6 years, $46.5M. At this point, he's 28, an annual 35+ HR slugger. He's got $25M+ per year possibility here - 10 years+ too. Assuming no more injuries. So 4 more years to get to 10 years...that's another $100M, so $46.5 + $100M for 10 years $146.5. There's no guarantee Sano would do this well and the injury bug doesn't hit him. So you can use that as a starting point to offer 'security' (for Sano) and cost savings (for the Twins) and start to inch that number down. So someone else had the offer of 10 years, $130M. That might be a good (reasonable?) place to start. Maybe even $120M for 10 years. That would still allow him to get a contract at 32. But that might be a bit long in the years. So, maybe another offer more in the middle, let's say we put 8 years $80M on the table for Sano. How does that sound?
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With a lot of guys who are 'capable' and that have position flexibility we could see more platoon like situations to play to players strengths. I think of 1991 where Scott Leius & Mike Pagliarulo (two very tough names to spell!) platooned at 3B and Randy Bush would get nearly all (or all) of his ABs vs RHP. I'm still holding out hope Mauer does a Pujols like transformation and gets 100% over his injuries type of deal. Might be a pipe dream, but it's still there.
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+1 for the Dozier could play SS, well, at least as well as our current SS. Polanco is quickly becoming a viable option in MN now too. Hitting .327 in 12 g at Rochester, after .301 in 67 games at Chattanooga. And he's already on the 40-man roster - so an easy 'swap' for Santana or someone else. http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=593871#/career/R/hitting/2015/ALL I think Rosario, barring a major slump, is likely to stay. I want to pull for Arcia, but when happens when Buxton comes back? Speaking of, anyone know when Buxton's timetable to return is? And he'll likely spend a rehab week or two in the MiLB right?
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I've never liked Meyer or May. Always have liked Berrios. I am mixed on Kohl Stewart. I can't figure out who/what he is or if he is an injury/TJ before he really gets good post TJ (a la Adam Wainwright, Roy Halladay). But is he Tim Hudson or what? I actually like Gonsalves and Thorpe more than Stewart. Berrios Thorpe Gonsalves Meyer Stewart Very curious what this Hu guy can be...
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Gotta go with Walker here. I don't see Harrison ever really getting regular playing time with the Twins (low ceiling) and though Walker has a lot of risk I feel he will still be able to hit 25+ HR at AAA for years to be able to get chances to make it happen in MLB. Although Walker may just end up as chasing Mike Hessman's ML HR Record... http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hessma001mic
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I'm for the bring Hicks up anytime soon sort of thing. When you're seeing the ball well - get after it. I think Hicks offers more than Schafer or Robinson in terms of CF Defense and OBP. And on occasion, a better element of power. The other scenario, for me, as linking other concurrent discussions is NOT Buxton anytime soon. But rather another guy already on the 40-man roster. Jorge Polanco. That is, he would come up and then they'd move Santana to CF - which would also be an improvement over the Schafer/Robinson scenario.
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For Buxton to be at all in consideration before Sept 1. 1) Twins must keep winning and be in contention 2) He has to hit at least .320/.400/.5XX at AA/AAA 3) Schafer, Hicks, Robinson, Rosario, et al aren't that answer in CF He's not on the 40-man roster. Twins would have to trade a 40-man guy or put him on waivers. Buxton hit well for 2 weeks at AA ball. Not even close to enough.
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I know this was said earlier...as I had researched it earlier as well...but 36 strikeouts?! Montgomery had 30 so far...but still. That's stupid. Then that Polanco has 0, albeit 0 walks too. Just crazy. Buxton 6 K's in 9 ABs with 1 BB. Ouch!
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Does Berrios start in AAA? Or a month in AA before heading up?
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Wow. Encouraging reports and box scores. Even Buxton getting 2 BBs is nice. Definitely an unusual year for Twins fans to have a 'legitimate prospect' challenging for so many positions on the roster. I doubt many of them will stay for Super-2, etc reasons, but to the point where we might have a 'rookie' outplaying a veteran in many spots is promising. And that doesn't factor in the youth, but not 'rookie status' of guys like Vargas, Santana, Arcia, Gibson, and Pinto. Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Meyer, Berrios, and Graham...4-5 of those guys could conceivably be playing well enough to 'merit' (not get) a roster spot on OD.
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In this picture, Sano weighed in at 252 lbs for TwinsFest 2014 (circa Jan 21, 2014). He looks pretty good for 252. http://aarongleeman.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Sano-and-Buxton.jpg http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-H8Roc5CLWBY/UubE5MqUuuI/AAAAAAAAHjI/BH4BkypHPKE/s1600/sano-twinsfest.jpg Definitely not "the Panda" sort of look. Also, he weighed in at 262 at Spring Training in 2014 and they still had him at 3B during position drills. Just saying...
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Pinto and Sano are the wild cards. If Pinto gets 400+ ABs that's 20-28 HR range. Otherwise, a #2 catcher with limited ABs, say 150, he gets maybe 6-10. Sano, I feel would put up better power numbers than Vargas. Vargas put up 9 in 215 ABs. I think Sano might get the same # of ABs this year. And I'd put him up for 12-16 in that same number of ABs. Suzuki 2014 - 3 2015 - 5 Mauer 2014 - 4 2015 - 12 Dozier 2014 - 23 2015 - 18 Plouffe 2014 - 14 2015 - 16 Santana 2014 - 7 2015 - 12 Arcia 2014 - 20 2015 - 28 Hicks 2014 - 1 2015 - 6 Hunter 2014 - 17 2015 - 15 Vargas 2014 - 9 2015 - 22 That's 124 with whatever the bench (5-15)...for 129-139 range, and then whatever becomes of the Pinto/Sano wildcard. Twins had 128 last year, AL average was 144.
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Mauer had one bad year...and it was after a concussion/injury riddled season. 2004 - knee - returned in 2005 to hit .294 2007 - quad - returned to hit .328 in 2008 2009 - lower back - returned to hit .365 2011 - bi-lateral leg - returned to hit .319 As we stand, Mauer is still trying to recover from the 2013 concussion. Most players who have a major concussion have shown they don't recover until the 2nd year. Salvador Perez is another who hit .294 then got a concussion (not nearly as bad as Mauer's) and then hit only .260 at age 23 the following season. Alex Avila did worse from his concussion in 2013 to 2014...only to sustain 2 more in 2014. But it looks like the season immediately following a concussion is always down and if the player recovers, the season after that they start to return to pre-concussion like production. For Mauer, his history shows he's been great at bouncing back and the concussion cycle would say he would bounce back this year as well, however, the other variable, age 32 is the wild card. So we could perhaps see what Mauer's age regression factor might be in 2015.
