twinsfan34

As Sconnie said... Pinto's BA was .205 just a week ago, which is very low. But seeing his at-bats, you wouldn't think he is doing that poorly. He hits some rockets that are caught in the OF. Just the other day N. Morgan, the Indians CF, made a leaping off the wall catch on a rocket hit 385 ft...but it was an out. Next at bat, watching the broadcast from the Indians tv affiliate said the ball left his bat at 112 MPH and hit the wall in less than 3.8 seconds. Just smashed it. He's had a few other blasts for outs...where he'd easily add 60-70 pts to his BA and they'd be doubles too. So still very encouraged by Pinto, despite his low BA at the moment.

Has Bortles fallen that far? I haven't kept up for a few months...NFL combine is in Feb...this pushing the draft out so far isn't a good idea IMO...now the 3 days things, but I digress. Bortles isn't a top 5..6..7 pick?

I never liked Hoffman...but disappointed someone else wouldn't get a chance to "waste" a pick on him. He's a JR...I think...so he now ends up in the 2016 Draft? Yea, I was starting to get excited about Gordon when the Dodgers were in town and with the Royals (Y. Ventura) playing the week before...all I could think was. Those diminitive Gordon's sure play good baseball. I wouldn't be afraid of Freeland or Beede.

Out of all these guys, I've only seen Nola and Rodon pitch a full game. I've seen a few innings of Koleck and Beede. I don't like Hoffman. I just don't like someone that eratic control wise who hasn't 'put it together' with the velocity and the hook he supposedly has. If either one were close to plus or better and the other average, he'd easily have 9+ K/9 at the collegiate level of competition he's facing. He's just now creeping over that number and his BB/IP is getting better 20/67, but still not enough for me to take a chance on him near the top end of a seemingly talented pitching heavy draft. I know Rodon is falling...but I'd take him over Hoffman easily at #5. I like Koleck. Can't teach velocity and size. If he has no seemingly apparent injuries he could be good. Not worried about not having much of a curve/slider. He's just turning 18. And the cutter, according to many MLB pitching coaches I've inquired of or heard speak on it, the cutter is easily teachable. And we've seen guys like Mariano Rivera to Jensen (Dodgers) to Eck etc do pretty good with that pitch, then to add it to his 4-seamer. He has the downhill angle that Michael Wacha and others have while throwing 80%+ fastballs with success. If he learns a changeup he'll be dangerous...curve, slider all the more. I'd be fine with Aiken. Dont know much. I've seen Nola pitch...he knows what he's doing, but definitely don't see him being anything more than a #3/#4 guy in MLB - granted, I think there's a 90% chance that's his floor and his ceiling. I could see a team in the middle to late 1st RD grabbing him and he's in their rotation by end of 2015/spring 2016. Haven't seen Freeland pitch, but you can't ignore those Lewis Thorpe-like numbers. Ironically, Thorpe wouldn't even be a freshman in college, but could probably post those numbers his freshman year at college. Brings up a quick question - would anyone trade Thorpe for any of these pitching prospects? Which one(s)? I'm intrigued with Jackson. If he's got a solid head on his shoulders and a chance to show some glove somewhere...it's not like he's not facing solid high school competition. I'd have no qualms about taking him #5. Guys I'm curious about Luke Weaver (FSU), Sean Newcomb (Hartford), A.J. Reed (Kentucky)... We may draft a guy who isn't on TD's radar though...

Any new updates?

Watching him strikeout...over and over. I gotta think that concussion, ball to the head, did more than we think it did. He's not old enough for this kind of decline. Puckett was never the same after getting hit in the head, neither was Morneau. Mauer...could be the same thing perhaps.

I have a feeling of Colabello is hitting and the OF is full...he'll DH a bunch, but if say, Pinto and Suzuki hit, then maybe Mauer will find more work at 3B (he already takes a few ground balls over there). But those are things that probably have to fall into place before there's really any urgency to try to get those guys in the lineup that much. And that's a problem, I'd be glad for the Twins to have. But it has to happen first.

Good stuff lightfoot! Great resource here as well. I'll definitely be revisiting as the year goes along.

For context...RHP =====> A Meyer and Stewart at @ #19 and #21. http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/position-by-position-rankings-righthanders/

Nice to see Kepler on the list...although, some context. The Overall 1B Grade =======> D+ It's a pretty sorry bunch compared to most positions. I would guess only 4-5 of those guys ever have a WAR season over 2.

Call me a skeptic...and the Twins have had guys from from A ball to the pros. Mostly in the early 80's with Eisenreich, HrBek, and Puckett (1 month at AAA after being at Class) - and all of them did pretty well....but I don't see Buxton starting in CF even if he's the clear cut best player ON THE TEAM sans Joe Mauer. I just think they'd play it conservative. Even if they think he'd hit .300 - who else does he have there to help him? And his service time just begins... Also, no reason to sell out every game of the season starting on Opening Day

Can any of those HRs be traced to actual MLB pitching, instead of guys just trying to make it? e.g. a HR off of Adam Wainwright matters more than 5 homers off AAAA talent. Be curious how that translates. Even so, a very small sample size.

As Rikker49 said, my thoughts was Radke played in the dome. Maybe some splits (and enough data) to get his EP home and away. The other thought....WAR sure loves Brad Radke, but doesn't care so much for Ricky Nolasco. Your EP formula, here and here...I almost think it accounts too heavily for BB factor. It's denominator has both a squared and a multiple factor... = 9(K^2)/(BB^2+BB*H) I, personally, would weigh hits allowed greater than BB. Hits can move baserunners an extra base as well as the added element of extra bases on errors that BB's do not. A little application to other seasons...at a quick glance. 2013 Clayton Kershaw yields 42.89 or "Ace" 2010 Hernandez CY year yields 26.3 or "#1/#2 starter" 1981 Nolan Ryan (195 ERA+, .188 BAA, .216 SLG%) yields 15.62 or borderline "#3/#4 starter" Fernando Venuzeula (won the CY that year) yields 23.71 or a "#2/#3 starter" Nolasco's 2009 (age 26)...he just couldn't strand baserunners relative to other years...and was also giving up a higher slg%. I'd like to see a weighted % of stranded baserunners with a weighted WHIP. To me, an "Ace" doesn't allow runs. He can get strikeouts when needed or pitch to a ground ball. ERA is kinda the raw version of this, but a weighted % baserunners stranded over the WHIP would probably give a better indicator. The other would be "ERA under a save situation sans the inning requirement" that is, ERA allowed while game is less than 3 runs difference, 2 runs difference, and 1 run difference. I'd then weight them for an adjusted ace factor. The metric would be like this wAce+.

Very good stuff. I respect Drew a lot for coming back from that horrific ankle injury, which are way harder to come back from than most injuries, e.g. a knee as the range of motion and requirements of an ankle are so much different. Great stuff on Peralta, makes sense. I only felt Peralta was better tangibly because of his offense. I wouldn't want Drew more than 2 years, unless the price is under $8/9M a season. He'll be 31 during the 2014 season, which, as you eluded to, I don't feel he'll be able to warrant the position defensively by age 33 and his bat, likely isn't good enough to warrant a shift to 3B for instance.

How does Jhonny Peralta (age 32 in '14, 4yr/$53M) compare to Drew? Why did the Cardinals go with Peralta over Drew?

These numbers put Drew's numbers in 81 games at Target Field?

I like this study a lot. It's pretty actionable if indeed it's as simple as having a team K/9 from one's pitchers. So looking for high correlations. This seems to fit: 9/10 seasons, Twins teams had 1,000 K's, and only one did they not get over 79. What's the opposite? When happens when Twins teams are under 1,000 Ks? (?/43 seasons) Then, as the previous poster said - is this a trend? So perhaps 1,000 K's in 1967 is more impressive (and better predictor of success) than 1,000 K's in 2012. Would need to get the weighted numbers. So is there a weighted number of the league average where the Win-Loss ratio just flips out. e.g. when 1.15 x the league average K/9 rate - teams won no less than 85 games at 90% correlation. Then I'd love to see some outliers. Such and such team had 1,400 K's but still was only 81-81. Then the opposite case, so and so team only struck out 750 guys, but yet won 85 games. And see if there was another strong factor to winning. Again, I think this is great - thanks - it's quite actionable. Versus trying to sort out BABIP pitchers or hitters (only 44% correlation year over year) - although a few like Clayton Kershaw have a confidence/standard error rate that is very consistent - so despite for the majority - it not being something to consistently count on year over year - there's always a few exceptions, like Kershaw's BABIP and thus ERA, etc.

Terry Ryan seems to have a different take his 2nd go around at GM. That's what industry experts say. And you can see it in the types of pitchers he's picking now too. High velocity, high swing and miss versus the control college pitcher types. Byron Buxton seems to be a find, they're pretty active in DR, PR, AUS, and GER. I look for them to be active again this summer with their relatively high amount of international signing money left. Then factor in the Free Agent money he's shelled out for SP and it appears he wants one more. Signing Bartlett and Kubel to minor league deals are low risk higher reward type of deals. Not biting on Salty was a good idea, even though he went for a modest $7M. And I believe not biting on Stephen Drew is big deal. He's gotten where he's actually a below average defender at SS, according to SABR and other metric heavy groups. I think the bat is getting worse and he's already only a .250 hitter. Florimon cost $490K. Drew has $14M sitting on the table for a 1 year tender from the Sox. He's barely 1 WAR better than Florimon, for $13M more per season? Not a good deal. Sign Tanaka with that money. And if you must lose a Draft Pick, this is a deep draft, think more at the 2012 draft and where the Twins will be picking. Sure, he's an upgrade over Florimon, but this is about Wins and if in FA, buying Wins, Drew is essentially 1 Win for in excess of $10M per over Florimon. Are there any other $10M deals out there worth 2 WAR? or 3 WAR? Concerning the Draft. Just looking at 2012, which is considered not as deep as this draft. That's Stephen Piscotty, Lance McCullers, Eddie Butler, Paco Rodriguez, Alex Wood territory. Guys who are already in MLB or are stud prospects starting at AAA in only 1.5 seasons of baseball. Jorge Polanco is raking in the DWL, he had a very solid A-ball (Cedar Rapids) season and the jump from AA to MLB might only be 1 to 1.5 years away, heck maybe a Sept Call up. I wouldn't be surprised if he could hit .250 in the pros already and provide better D than Drew. I think the Twins would like to see more though. Trea Turner is 3 year stud at NC State and looks to be available at pick #5 for this upcoming draft. He could be a quick mover. 80 grade speed, great D. The amount of stick he has will decide how fast he makes it to MLB. But he's likely at most 2 years away. I'd hope they don't sign Drew for anything over a 1 yr $5 deal. Anything more is losing money for production in a season that likely won't see the Twins compete for a playoff position. If they must spend $14M and lose a 2nd RD Draft pick, let it Ubaldo Jiminez or Ervin Santana. I'd love to see the progression of WAR vs Age for SS's over 30.

I'd love to hear if any of the Braves guys are available. They have 6 starters and the tail end are better than our group of AAA guys. Beachy would be the guy I'd target, however, we just traded with them, so it would have been more condusive to try to get him then. I think Alex Meyer will end up with the 5th spot out of Spring Training. I can't see any of those other guys really giving him much of a challenge. Sure they might put up good Spring Training numbers. But if Meyer isn't missing his locations (catcher sits outside, pitch flies inside) and has doesn't have a high BB% total - I just can't see them pitching him every 5th or 6th day as the #5. I haven't been much of a believer in Kyle Gibson since we drafted him. But he seems like a great guy, intelligent, and at least before his injury - a crafty pitcher. So I'd pull for him, even though I never thought he'd ever be part of a MLB rotation. The glut of AAAA guys is somewhat nice in that if there's a shoulder tweak or anything like that you can just bring up a guy and he can pitch on short notice. One of those AAAA guys who can do a pinch start is usually the long reliever, a la Brian Duensing. I had no idea Doumit could be traded. So that's about as much as I know going forward, but I agree with the guys above, I think there will be a few more trades that ultimately affect the 25 man roster.

I could be walk-ing right into this one, but I think Prospect A has a shot. He improved YoY...and I think, if he's willing to make the adjustments, shorten his swing, etc (if that's what's needed)...he can still be a successful power hitter because he has so much power. Ironically, Jose Dariel Abreu has the same scouting report. Can't hit the inside fastball, destroys mistake pitches, tons of power. I don't know if he'd ever hit over .270 in the pros. Do the Twins have room for an average to above average OF...who hits .240-265...22-34 HR type of player. Maybe.

Sorry, that was more from the Phillies point of view. Have always liked Rollins as a player. His 2007 was magical. 20-20-20-20 season. 35 is probably too old to be relevant to the Twins window. My idea of thinking is if you're not able to compete or close to competing, try to figure out what the young guys can do - and if possible, get then as much game exposure as possible if they show growth. To make it a little bit of a discussion... If it was for one season only, I'd rather pay Rollins 11M than Stephen Drew 11M.

With the age of the players the Phillies have signed...may not want prospects. Seem more bent on 'win now'...probably because they're so old already and yet have so much money tied into it. It's almost like you're at the poker table...and you already got 80% of your chips in, and don't want to walk away without that 80% - so they'll risk the 20% remaining. Boston managed to reverse it though...so it can be done.

Can we send back Trevor May?

Is this something the Twins have taken advantage of much recently? 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 picks?

I had a few names a few weeks back...but don't have them with me now. Of the guy you mentioned, Stephen Kohlscheen, seems the most likely and most attractive. Arias is tempting, but then I saw only 18 BBs and 132 K's at A/A+ while hitting .272. Scary thing is...to think of this guy as actually on a MLB club next year...then contrast that with how much better Buxton is than this guy, while still being 2 years younger. And that's just offensively, Buxton has GG level defense already.