Major League Ready

Will they try to extend him? Does this result in Martin or Julien making the team this spring.

Yes, I absolutely agree with you that the scenario described does not indicate the pipeline is a myth.

Perhaps but the driving force for most of these discussions is that many fans are very focused on the right now. Sustaining success requires a very different focus. I have complied the data in terms of acquisition method of top players for the past 20 years. Vanimal's position is very clearly supported if one were to look back at how playoff teams have been built by teams in the bottom half of revenue.

This was your position last year. "They were in 1st place" so it would be a travesty if they didn't go for it. Well, they went for it with a team that in no way was an actual contender, especially with the injuries they had sustained. Fans live in the right now. That's easy to manage. To manage sustained success is monumentally more difficult. I hope they act as Vanimal suggests if they are in contention for the division this year but once again not a true contender.

Cleveland is a good example of your point. Kluber for 1 year vs Clause for 6+ years. Clevinger for 1 year vs Quantrill, Naylor, and miller for 5-6 years. 1 year of Carrasco / Lindor vs 5-6 years of Rosario and Gimenez. Those players provided 15.4 fWAR last year. They would not have anywhere near the team they have today had the not "replenished"

Pitchers get hurt. Texas traded Clause for Kluber and got nothing. SanDiego traded multiple players for Clevinger and got nothing. Sale has been hurt. Johnny Cueto was hurt or underperformed 5 of his 6 year contract, etc. There is some luck involved.

Why not trade Kepler and eat his 2023 salary in order to get a better return?

Is an exact balance ideal. Wouldn't it would be advantageous to start the game with an extra RH bat if they had someone on the bench that fit that role and then substitute that person out later in the game as the situation dictates. They have an advantage in 2-3 ABs and then substitute later in the game back to a balanced line-up. When they make that substitution, they gain one more AB with a favorable match-up.

I hope they are able to pull off a trade for Arraez or Polanco but it makes more sense to wait until the deadline. It's a lot easier to let one of them go if Kirilloff is healthy and/or one of Martin or Julien is up and playing well. This is how the Rays and As compete. They do it over and over while we say we can't produce young talent like them. Why can't we use depth like they do to bring in additional young talent?

Could not agree more. Trading a great player with 3 years of control for a player with 2 years of control is bad to start with but the whole point is to get that player that truly makes a difference. Lopez is not that player. I would rather take my chances with Eury Perez if they would trade him.

It took Carlos Gomez 5 years to figure it out. Adell has a little over 1 year of service time. Point being he would not be the 1st to turn it around but how long will it take?

What if Max Meyer or Eury Perez were the main piece coming back? Add Joe Mack and I would jump on that deal.

The phrasing of your post suggested certainty. I could not find anything of substance regarding his injury so I was hoping you had some actual information. I see a guy with obvious talent who struggled because of an injury. He was very good right before the wrist starting acting up. If that injury is permanently corrected as it was in Kirk Gibson, I see a middle of the line-up bat. I don't have a medical degree and I certainly am not a specialist in this highly specialized type of surgery. Therefore, I would never offer a conclusion beyond a general impression.

A couple years ago I read an article that listed the top international bonuses of all time. I looked all of them up and came to the conclusion it made absolutely no sense to sign the $4M+ players. The Twins history with the $2M plus guys certainly does not inspire confidence. Of course, they can't spend the entire allotment on guys that are $100K although I saw the Brewers had signed 29 guys. The best course of action based on the information I looked at a couple years ago would be to sign four or five guys from $500K to 1.5M instead of one at $4M. Then, spend a couple million on the $50-200K guys. Of course, that ideal scenario would be very difficult to pull-off when they are competing with 30 other teams for a limited number of prospects that get $500K-$1.5M.

I had not seen anything suggesting he would not be ready to start the season. I tried an internet search and came up with nothing. What have you seen?

I read somewhere that they had a nutritionist for him. They also had a grand plan for him to get in shape the year they experimented with him in the OF. The appearance is that he is just not that committed. He repeatedly showed up for spring training out of shape even with 10s of millions on the line. Some guys are more committed than others. I Never liked the extension because he appeared to be someone who is not fully committed.

IDK if they will sign a front of the rotation free agent. However, "thus far" we had never signed a $200M+ free agent like Correa either. We have not been in a position with this much young talent, especially pitching in a very long time. That has a dramatic impact on what they can afford to do. They had to spread out the money in the past. That simply is not the case presently and going forward. Next year, the payroll is around $92M, assuming one of Polanco or Arreaz and Kepler are gone. They need to retain some payroll capacity so that they can keep the team together but that would not prohibit them from signing a significant free agent SP. They could spend $30M on a pitcher and be $20M+ under the 2023 payroll.

Sounds like much to do about nothing to me. Kirilloff is a 1B who can play the outfield. If he is healthy, the infield is likely 1B Kirilloff / 2B Polanco / 3B Miranda / SS Correa with Arraez and Farmer as utility players. Gordon can also cover the middle IF spots. So, there are really 7. Wallner for certain starts in AAA and Celestino likely joins him so we are down to 5. This is not a problem at all when there are only 2 catchers and a spot is not used by a primary DH. Should we feel bad about having depth at AAA? If Kepler gets traded there will be an article about us being vulnerable now citing all the injuries last year.

I am trying to think of example where a pitcher that looked as good as Cabrera did in his first year got traded. He might have done too much to establish himself in terms of the Marlins letting him go unless the return is ridiculous. We would burn down Target Center if the twins traded away that kind of player, right? I just don't see him being traded unless the cost really hurts.

I think you forget how many upper level players are signed or traded for that produce nothing. We have a couple on our own roster. Remember when people were really upset we did not get Bumgardner. Patrick Corbin is a bust. Chris Sale has not produced much since being extended. Johnny Cueto did very little 5 of his 6 year contract. Kluber got injured when when he went to Texas. He produced nothing and they gave up Clause in that trade. Clevinger went to SanDiego. Same story and they gave up Quantrill, Naylor and Miller for Clevinger. Kuechel was a bust. David Price was not much either. There are plenty of other examples. Davis / Pujlos / Elsbury, etc. This type of deal is exactly how a team with $300M in revenue competes with teams generating 50 to 100% more revenue. Obviously, if you have an extra $150M on payroll, you don't need to make these deals but we are not in that boat.

How does that work? Would love to hear how a team with $270M in revenue can spend as much as a team with $600M+ in revenue. Please enlighten us?

Knock on wood but it should be a longtime before the Twins need to resort to another Matt Shoemaker / JA Happ type of signing. Yes, Mahle/Gray/Maeda will be free agents next year. However, Ryan/Paddack/Ober/SWR and Varland give us 5 very low cost starters. They will have plenty of money to extend Mahle or sign someone at least as good. That gives us 6 deep, maybe 7 if Dobnak is serviceable and by then one of two of Canterino/Festa/Raya/Prielipp should be ready especially later in the 2024 season if (when) we have injuries..

I like it except where is Kirilloff in this scenario? We would really be in business if Kirilloff reaches his potential. In this scenario, Kirilloff is the primary 1B and plays some outfield while Julien plays 1B/2B/DH and I wonder if they don't experiment with him in the OF a bit too. Julien and Martin could be the perfect complement in utility roles. Between them they can play 8 positions and steal bases.

There is simply no need to be in a rush. I would hope they trade if and when they get a great return. We have so many question marks right now that it is very difficult to assess what's best long-term. Things will very likely be more clear at the deadline. Why not hold on and see what comes together and what does not come together. The one exception I see is Kepler. I don't see them picking up his option and we have young guys that should get a shot so let max go. I would also trade one of Arrez or Polanco IF the return was right. It makes absolutely no sense to trade away pitching right now. The demand / return is always there at the deadline. No way would I trade anymore prospects or prearb players for pitchers with 2 years of control. They spent plenty of long-term capital last year and got nothing for it. Lopez for Kepler is a different story. Try to extend him. Trade him if that does not come to fruition. We also can't say we just can't produce prospects like Tampa/Oakland if we are not willing to make the trades that have been a very big part of them producing more young talent than us and most of the rest of the league.

Actually, Maeda is probably in the starting rotation. I estimated $6M because I did not think he would get a lot of innings. You hit on what will be a very interesting thing to watch this year. Winder looked pretty good in his initial starts and bad after he came back from injury. Varland looked like he just might earn that 5th spot. When exactly I don't know. Then, when will Paddack come back and how will he look. Personally, I hope Winder / Varland and SWR all step-up and make it a real battle for the SP positions. If Paddack is healthy we should be 8-10 deep. maybe we even get something (long relief) out of Dobnak.