Major League Ready

True but I do remember thinking at the deadline that they were fooling themselves if they thought they were at all serious contenders, and I wrote that here. There is a little more nuance to it though. Others have pointed out that they did not give up top prospects although it would not surprise me if CES turned out to be an all-star. They were really deep with "decent" prospects like Steer and you can't keep them all. That's why I said earlier that the Twins could absolutely have a sustained period of success after making the trades they have made. Trading Arraez and replacing his production internally (at least close) is part of how they sustain winning. Trading Polanco when Lee or Lewis is ready ... part of the solution. Extending Mahle / Gray or getting a comp round pick, etc. Getting lucky in the lottery helps too.

I basically agree this is a hindsight judgment but there is also some degree of accountability if their evaluation is wrong as it was when the cardinals gave up both Alcantara and Gallen. Just my opinion but I think this FO significantly misjudged their chances last year. If they don't make much of a playoff run this year, they did in fact expend a lot of assets when their chances were not good. So, while it is hindsight, that hindsight pretty clearly shows they were wrong about their chances last year and any team can misjudge prospects and end up over paying in a manner that has a significant long-term negative impact. The best hitters fail 70% of the time. Decisions that don't work out are part of the deal but that does not change the fact that deals that seemed reasonable turn out to be bad decisions that hurt the team for several years.

I have been thinking for a while that the TV situation is obviously not under control. MLB needs to take charge and develop a plan where they have greater control of the accessibility of their product. This has been deteriorating for a few years now. Now, that's easier said than done given there are many contracts in place for 10+ years out. It's very complicated and we don't have nearly enough information to know what's the right plan. I just hope they figure it out.

I am not quite there. It depends on two things for me. Do they actually contend? If not, so what if they were a little better. Obviously, they did not contend last year. We will see about this year but a lot of stuff has to go right, Two, how long and how well does the lost prospect perform. 5-6 years of a solid number 2 really lifts a team, not to mention that cost controlled guy frees up budget for FAs. There are some examples like the Marlins got Alcantara and Gallen for two years of Acuna. For me, unless they have two runs to the WS or win the WS one of the years, it's a very bad trade. They won 88 games in 2018 and 91 in 19 then lost 4-0 in the NLCS. So, they did pretty well but for me that is not remotely worth Alcantara for 6 years not to mention Zac Gallen as a bonus.

He has to be the biggest wildcard in the entire system. Prelipp and Rodriquez will be the two prospects I watch the closest in 2023. Salas too.

I might be the biggest advocate on this board of the need to develop or trade for prospects that produce for 6+ years instead of two years. However, the twins can absolutely have sustained success in the wake of the trades that were made. That will depend on a few of the young guys coming through and realizing their potential. They need to create a rotation between Ryan / Ober / SWR / Varland / Winder / Balazovic / Prielipp / Canterino / Festa and Raya. who knows maybe they take a pitcher at 5 this year in the draft. If they can develop starters, they will have the financial flexibility to sign a top of the rotation free agent. They have so many position player prospects that a few can fail they need to create a group of core guys between Correa / Buxton / Kirilloff / Miranda / Lewis / Lee / Larnach / Walner / Rodriquez / Martin and Salas. The trades were a short-term benefit and likely a long-term loss. That can be overcome by trades like the Arraez trade if they can get present and/or future value for the established players that will inevitably be replaced. That's why they should trade Kepler and eventually Polanco. They might just have enough mid rotation starters to trade someone at the deadline and they have a couple pitchers that will at minimum net a comp round pick. Plus, they got lucky and moved up to 5 in the draft and they have a comp round pick. There is a good chance we have a good team for the next several years. They will need a couple stars to emerge if they are going to be a dominant team.

There might actually be a competition for the final spot among position players between Larnach / Martin, and Julien. That could be interesting to watch as spring training unfolds.

A good catching prospect that's a couple years away would be good too. They don't have to trade him now so I suspect they deal if the price (return) is right.

Depends on several things. 1. How good are twins at the 2023 deadline. 2. The return for Lopez. 3. How good are Varland / Winder / SWR / Canterino / Balazovic / Prielipp / Festa and Raya looking. If 3 or 4 of them are absolutely dominating in Milb, it would make the move easier. 4. What is his ask. 5. How does Maeda bounce back and Paddack could be ready by then. How does he look at that point. 6. How well are Ober / Ryan pitching. 7. Their willingness to really pony up next year and spend on a top free agent pitcher. The dollars will be available. They have Mahle / Gray / Maeda / Pagan / Gallo and Taylor coming off. They will likely trade Kepler and Farmer or decline Kepler's option. They can also non-tender farmer. That's a total of $61M coming off if they were to trade Lopez. They can spend half on one pitcher if they can fill four spots in the 2024 rotation between Ryan / Ober / Paddack / SWR / Varland / Winder / Canterino / Balazovic and Festa. Perhaps Prielipp and Raya become options during the 2024 season. Perhaos they extend Gray or Maeda on a shorter deal. Put Nola or Severino and the front of that group and you have something.

I was literally going through the responses assuming someone had given this response. With Correa entrenched for the next few years, you have to believe Lewis will be the RF when he is not backing-up CF or SS. I am also hoping Rodriquez flies through the minors.

Spring training starts in 32 days.

Squirrel's point about the value of this trade having multiple levels makes this an interesting case. Arreaz did one thing extremely well. However, when the Twins look at how they replace him, it's not a simple player to player comparison. He was a below average defender and base runner with little power and he did not hit LH pitching well. The key to how this works out with a guy that fit in wherever they had room will be how they cover his ABs in aggregate. Can Kirilloff provide better defense at 1B and equal offensive production. Can Julien provide an equal OBP with more power and therefore a higher OPS / wRC+ along with above average base running and equal defense. Can Martin provide similar OBP with better defensive value and great base running. Will the additions of Lewis and Lee squeeze Arraez out? In other words, will the players taking his ABs collectively cover the offense of Arraez while gaining in other areas? The more I think about it, the more I think they can cover his departure.

It would be easier to identify the guys that won't DH. Other than Farmer and Jeffers, just about everyone could get at least a few games at DH. Gallo gets a few DH days if he is playing like he did in 2019 or 2021. 2022 Joey Gallo is only in the lineup when he is playing in the OF.

Still trying to figure out the 26-man roster before we figure out the line-up. Will Kepler be here? Who takes the IF position vacated by Arraez? The starting IF might be set. Reports on Kirilloff are encouraging. Twins' Alex Kirilloff: Takings swings at full speed - CBSSports.com. So, the starting IF should be Kirilloff / Polanco / Miranda and Correa. Buxton and Gallo are OF starters along with Kepler if he is still here. If not, Larnach is the likely LF. Jeffers and Vazquez Catch. Gordon and Farmer are sure bets. Who are the other two that fill out the 13 position players? Buxton / Correa / Polanco / Miranda and Kirilloff are the 1st five. Then, Kepler or Larnach / Gallo / Vazquez or Jeffers and the mystery bench bat 9th.

I understand where you are coming from and two teams can both win in a trade. The scenario could play out many ways. Petty could end up being a 3/4 and it's no big deal. If Chase Petty turns out to be an ace, I would not view it as a good outcome unless the twins made a deep push in the playoffs this year and Gray was instrumental. Granted, the odds of Petty becoming an ace are long but two years of a good pitcher in years where we did not contend is not a good swap if we could have had a better pitcher for 6+ years. It would be just our luck!

Ryan for Cruz was a fantastic trade. Getting out of the Donaldson contract while getting Urshela and Sanchez was darn good. Duran for Escobar is looking good as well. The Sonny Gray trade could come back to bite us but it will be 4 or 5 years before we can really assess that one.

His career OPS against LHP is 685 and wRC+ is 88. I would rather have Garlick on the bench with all the other LH hitting OFers. Garlick's OPS against LH pitching is 839 and a wRC+ of 126.

You would have to believe Kirilloff's relative health has a significant impact on how this shakes out. Then, the wildcard is how Arraez is replaced. Would they have Farmer and Gordon as the only IF back-ups? Julien or Martin might enter the picture early in the season. They likely are not inserted high in the lineup to begin with but both are high OBP and great base runners. What will this look like on July 1? It will be a lot of fun if this comes together. They just might surprise some people.

I posted the exact same position as Mike. No way would I have traded Arrez for Lopez straight-up. Those prospects absolutely made me change my tune. Success for a team with a significant revenue disadvantage is absolutely dependent on acquiring/developing prospects regardless of its via draft or trade. Nothing is remotely close in terms of importance. So, to place no value on prospects would pretty much guarantee failure on a long-term basis.

Thanks for this comment. The total emphasis on immediacy absolutely blinds many people. How many examples are there of guys like Tatis Jr or Corey Kluber? Our own Jhoan Duran took 2 1/2 years. A year or 3 years is far less relevant than what they turn out to be. I would much rather wait 3 years for a guy that produces 5 WAR than get a 2.5 WAR guy that's ML ready.

I read the one from fangraphs that someone linked earlier. It made me feel pretty good because there was no emotion involved. It was a well thought out and well-crafted assessment of the trade. There were a couple others that had a similar point of view but were not articulated as well as the Fangraphs piece.

IDK if they simply are not willing to sign a SP to a long-term deal. However, it's been a very long time since this team had so many positions covered by low-cost players. They project right at $100M for 2024 assuming they trade Kepler or don't pick-up his option. That's estimating Lopez at $8.5M. An additional $15M or $20M or even $25M for him or Nola / Severino / Mahle is just not a problem provided the other spots in the rotation are covered by some combination of Ryan / Ober / SWR / Varland / Canterino / Festa / Raya / Prielipp / Balazovic. That still leaves them room to cover arbitration increases and fill a BP spot. Farmer and Polanco will also be replaced by prearb players so that's another $13M that will become available. This FO has never been in this position, so I am not going to assume they won't sign someone when they have never been in a parallel situation. Nobody thought they would sign a $200M free agent either. The dream scenario for me is they get Nola next year. That gives them Nola / Lopez / Ryan and two of Paddack / Ober / SWR / Varland / Winder / Canterino / Balazovic and perhaps Festa / Prielipp and Raya by sometime during 2024. That should result in very good depth and a couple guys moving to the BP.

I pay much more attention to what the national guys think. They are far more objective.

It's nice to see that the some of the national writers believe this deal pretty heavily favors the Twins. I have been an advocate of trading Arrez for all the reasons mentioned here and the articles about the trade as long as the return was strong, and this was a very good return. I see it as fairly close to a wash short-term but two high ceiling / athletic prospects could make this very favorable long-term.

Having a rotation of #3 starters gives you a good chance of making the post season. The problem is matching up in the post season once you get there. Arraez was just not good enough to get an Ace. It takes a package that is really going to hurt to get an ace and we can't make team's agree. They want to keep them as badly as we would like to acquire them. The return of a very good pitcher a top 100 prospect and a third player with a high ceiling is a very good return. Obviously, this trade has the potential to good badly just like any other trade. However, the addition of two high ceiling prospects provides the potential for this trade to be very productive trade for the Twins. I hate to lose Arraez but this is the type of deal, especially with Julien, Martin, and Lee getting close, that can make us better for many years.