Major League Ready

In the first draft of my post, I actually qualified my statement with unless Dobnak has a miraculous comeback. Then, I deleted that part because it seemed highly unlikely. I too would love for him to pitch so well as to force his way in front of those other pitchers.

I don't see Alcala as a break-out candidate. We already know he is a good RP. Obviously, there is room for him to be a dominant high leverage guy so I guess we could call that a break-out if he steps it up a notch from what we have seen. He is said to be healthy and I expect him to be good. Jovanni Moran is the guy I could see really "breaking out". He could be great if he can just command the zone.

We don't need Dobnak at all this year so I don't understand why his value is being defined as what he does this year. They have several guys that should be looked at in front of Dobnak. Let him take the entire year to add a pitch or tweak the ones he has currently. Frankly, I am hoping that Dobnak pitches great but Ober / Varland / SWR / Winder / Canterino / Festa / Henriquez, and Paddack block Dobnak from every getting a shot. Hopefully, he is good enough to be a trade asset.

If you define better as title worthy or likely to win the WS, you have a point. However, that outlook would defy the fans of two-thirds of the teams in MLB on a yearly basis. There are 30 teams competing for that title and some of them able to spend twice as much. For me the shot at 90 wins is a lot better than being likely to lose 90. Where batting average is concerned. I won't tell you BA does not matter but BA is one relatively small indication of player value. That's why stats like wRC+ and WAR were created. Aaron Judge's average was a couple points below Arraez. Yet, he his WAR was over 3X more than Arraez. Judge's wRC+ was 76 points higher. It makes absolutely no sense to value players as you have here based solely on BA.

Here is how is see the net of these moves. Miranda replaces Urshela. They were about the same last year but Miranda has more upside. Vazquez replaces Sanchez which is a fairly significant improvement. Farmer offers more than he is getting credit for because he hits LF pitching very well. Used properly, he is a nice plus. Alcala and Maeda coming back unknown but a lot of potential upside. Pablo Lopez a big plus and Jorge Lopez probably a plus. Mahle, assuming he is healthy, is a big plus. Taylor as a bench player is a modest plus. Arraez's ABs will be primarily replaced by Kirilloff but also spread among Buxton / Miranda / Correa and perhaps Julien or Martin at some point. I would call that a push with upside if Kirilloff performs the way we hope. Mahle / Lopez and Lopez instead of Bundy / Archer. Kirilloff / Larnach / Alcala and Maeda back from injury. Overall, this is a significantly better team than opening day 2022.

I could see him being used in a Chris Taylor mold. As often as they rest players these days, he could play as much as a regular starter while playing SS/3B/CF/LF/RF/DH. I would not use him at 2B. Then again, he could be the RF and CF when Buxton is out. IDK, I just hope he is he remains healthy. One way or another these guys about to burst on to the scene should make it an interesting time to be a Twins fan.

The Twins are well-positioned to have a winning record for the next several years. This year has a lot of question marks, but there is enough young talent at the ML level right now to produce a winning record for several years. Then, this next wave will determine if they are a 90+ win team for multiple seasons. If a few of that next wave (Lewis / Lee / Rodriguez / Julien / Martin / Salas / Winder / Varland / SWR / Prelipp / Canterino / Balazovic / Raya and Festa turn out to be what we hope, this will be a very good team most of the next 6-8 years. #5 pick next year will hopefully be part of that future as well.

No doubt this team would be better with a true ace. However, one pitcher does not make a baseball team. Having one better pitcher is not nearly as important as the group in aggregate. Our strength is we have 6 good starters and depth behind them.

No doubt, what was presented in this article does not constitute fact. Predicting the success of a team requires a great deal of projection that is far from fact. Further complicating the issue is that we all interpret the elements of these projections differently. For example, most people would not measure the offensive value of a hitter purely by BA as you have here. Miranda will replace Urshela at 3B. He will likely not have as high of an average but will likely produce better than Urshela when measures that consider total production are utilized. IDK if I would call it “missing something” or just differing interpretations of what’s changed. Kirilloff is a good example. A healthy Kirilloff coming back as a huge boost. You are apparently assuming he is not healthy or won’t perform. I sway towards optimism here. You see Farmer as strictly a utility guy. I see a very good bat against LH pitching. That’s a net gain over last year. The biggest net gain of all could come from health. We were playing our 6th, 7th, and 8th OFers a significant part of last year. That I would say is something you are missing. On the pitching side, we added two guys who are capable of being our best SP. When is that not a net gain? We added Jorge Lopez to the BP. I guess that one is open to debate but it’s hard to imagine that he does not represent a gain. Alcala is back. Not sure how much he adds but it could be a considerable boost. I will miss the entertainment Luis Arraez provided. However, it just makes no sense to play Arraez in the field with the group they have now, especially considering Lewis and Lee are close. As a DH, I would prefer they rotate Buxton, Correa, Larnach, and perhaps Julien. Give Farmer the Abs he took against LH pitching. Farmers OPS against LH pitching is 167 points higher than Arraez. I see this team as far from the same team that took the field last April.

Why would we want them to make an "all-in" move for 23 and 24 that we know would require trading away a couple great players that will be important for the next 5-7 years? The team is not even remotely positioned for this type of move.

I will take the over on Kirilloff and Miranda. Maybe Larnach too.

I can see a path to above average defense from this group. The small sample size from Kirilloff is consistent with the eye test. He is a little above average as a rookie and should get better. Polanco is average. Correa and that arm plays. Then, there is Miranda. I thought he sucked at 3B but was average at 3B. I never understood the push by so many for him play 1B. Let's hope the commitment to getting in better shape and Correa's mentorship results in above average results. We would be in pretty good shape and Lewis and Lee are on the horizon. It would be great if Miranda improved at 3b and Lee eventually took over and 2b for Polanco and Lewis would be our better version of Chris Taylor.

Since the beginning of last year .... The rotation is better with the addition of Pablo Lopez and we have great depth with Ober / Varland / SWR / Winder. The BP could be better to. Jorge Lopez / Alcala could make it a little better or a lot better. Those two need to be good. We are better at catcher. Kirilloff / Larnach also have the potential to improve the team over last year. I like the odds if they are healthy. We also have Lewis / Julien and perhaps Martin for depth on the position side. We won't be playing Cave and Contreras. Could be 80 and could be 90 wins.

I hated the Saboto pick. A 1 tool guy in the first round makes no sense. Granted it was very late 1st but the Dodgers identified a high upside pitcher 2 picks later when they took Bobby Miller. He is now their #2 rated prospect and he will be at the ML level soon. He has a 70 grade FB / 60 Slider / 60 Changeup / 55 Curve. Taking him instead of Saboto would have made that draft a huge success.

Why does it make sense for Gordon to start in front of Taylor in CF and not in front of Farmer in the iF? Gordon's wRC+ vs RH pitching is 113. Farmer is 72 and Taylor's is 75.

Lewis is going to eventually be the back-up SS so the better scenario is Martin plays well enough to force his way onto the roster and he takes Farmer's place. That duo could be in place for 5 years instead of two. Plus, Martin offers more flexibility and better base running / stealing.

Gibson had a 5-year run where he produced an average of 4.76 WAR. Rosario's best 4 years he produced an average of 2.6 WAR. I would not call that "marginally" better. Rosario was extremely good from the last half or 2017 through the first half of 2018. He was marginally less productive than Gibson during those two half-seasons but not even close outside that short window when Rosario shined. Hopefully, Kirilloff's production is closer to Gibson than Rosario.

That is how the Guardian's acquired Gimenez. Obviously, Polanco is not the same caliber as Lindor but he only had 1 year left until free agency. Sure would like to make that kind of deal! I am hopeful one of the prospects can equal or even exceed Polanco's production and we get a good return. It's about time some of these things swing our way.

The Baldelli won't let a pitcher go beyond 5 innings is getting tedious. He had pitchers that were not good beyond 2 trips through the order. Not letting them go beyond that is called common sense.

No doubt the 4 WAR 2019 Polanco is a lot harder to replace than 1.8 WAR 2022 Polanco. He could produce 3 WAR and still get traded but that's not likely until an heir apparent is identified. How well Miranda does at 3B could also play into Polanco being replaced. If he surprises us at 3B, Lewis or Lee could end up at 2B, Of course, the return will also be a key consideration. The $22.5M for 2024-25 could come into play. If Lewis / Lee / Martin or Julien can come to replacing his production, the extra dollars can be spent to make it a net gain plus we get prospects.

If he proves he can play an average 3B, and Lewis / Lee and eventually Salis prove to be even better, Miranda's value might be greatest as a trade chip. That won't happen until he reached his arbitration years but it's OK to produce so many good players that you have to trade one every now and then.

Yep, I am sure several teams asked why they should give the Twins all that much in trade with all those options you listed and announced they were holding on to him. I am hoping for the opportunity to buy a decent prospect by absorbing most of his salary. However, I would be just fine with a scenario they move him for a modest return if the motivation is Larnach and or Wallner are performing at a high level than Kepler.

He seems like a good candidate to get traded to a team in playoff contention that sustains an injury in the first couple of months.

You already know that's by ideal scenario. They are going to drop over $40M from the current salary level and that's assuming they keep Thielber and Jorge Lopez. I will be pulling hard for these young pitchers to make the jump. Shohei Ohtani and Julio Urias are free agents too. We are not going to land them but it's good they will be there to absorb some of the available payroll from the top markets. Severino will be available too and the wildcard is Blake Snell. He found it again the last couple months of 2022 so he might be in the mix too. Mahle if healthy would be a good consolation prize.

Why would we assume he merely lost weight. What if he replaced fat with muscle? Couldn't he be leaner and meaner?