100% agreed they'll use 10+ starting pitchers in 2023. #8,9,10,11 should have a couple starts each. #6 and 7 should get 8-10 starts each.
We see things differently too, which makes this a fun discussion. I see Mahle as durable prior to last year, Gray and Ryan getting a bit more run than last year with 2022 being healthier (and more innings, than years prior). Those 3 are among the best 2,3,4 starts in MLB (unfortunately they're 123, alas) and if they can get/remain healthy there's a good likelihood of pitching 550 to 570 innings. Still need to pitch 1500 innings, Maeda, Ober might only be 250 of those innings, Varland (6) pitched really well last year, and SWR (7) and Winder (8) both look ready. There's depth and innings there, that I'm not worried about 2024 if they can extend Mahle or Gray. I agree that Gray might not want to sign an extension, he has expressed his frustration with his handling, but he also had one of his best years in a while last year and maybe stepping back away from the competitive grind might see things in as new light.