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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    I’m stuck on the Marlin’s Luzardo! Why - seems really talented & yet completely unproven after only one successful season of 100 innings. Also, less costly than the ACE types. Marlins are moving Arraez to 2B - moving 2nd baseman to CF for first time ever in OF. They are in last year of contract with 1st baseman. Luzardo to Twins for: Celestino (CF with upside & control) - Kepler (starting OF with upside as shift is lifted). These guys address their everyday OF problem - also, lets the Team options on how to get Arraez into line-up. There’s some talk that the former 2nd baseman should move to SS & not CF. I’m not a Marlins expert but these two guys help them with issues they have……….if we add Martin it helps with their SS deficiency. I’d add J. Lopez for pitching help as an upside veteran! 4 players that can contribute - 2 under long control. All for a young Lefty. Thoughts??
  2. JD-TWINS
    We are in a deep minority but I agree completely on Gordon! If you take away Buxton’s ability to contribute as DH, it wouldn’t be close. 2022: .272BA - 50 RBI batting 7th or lower - 405 AB’s & had 28 doubles. Played OF for first year in career, 2 positions. Gained 25lb from January to June & is getting stronger after overcoming intestinal ailment. How do his stats project in a better line-up & him getting 575 AB’s? Larnach - Kirilof - Kepler - Gallo all need to Show Me something this year to move Gordon from 80 starts in LF & 50 starts in CF. Martin - Lewis are in the wings……..no mention of Celestino is on purpose.
  3. JD-TWINS
    I hated the Arraez trade!! Agreed on offense……..just trying to stay upbeat. We needed/need more front line pitching. If he was still in line-up though and we were minus a prospect or two (bird in hand) plus Kepler - Celestino - maybe Pagán, I’d feel a lot better.
  4. JD-TWINS
    I was made aware of this contract situation about 6 weeks ago & I understand the business is business approach from FO. However, if a guy’s coming off major arm surgery & was paid to re-hab all of last year and then other guys are acquired……..,it seems to me to be reasonable to start the guy out in the Pen, or with shorter inning outings. If he looks effective & the Pen is our best option for Wins due to a lack of stamina, there has to be some reality check. Maybe, if this approach is considered, they offer him a bonus to make this move & keep everybody happy & on same page. Probably not very likely. If Ober starting & Maeda relieving a couple times per week helps the Club I think the Professional Baseball people need to figure out how to make it happen.
  5. JD-TWINS
    That’s a good point! I was feeling optimistic. I would say though that without Joe Smith, Duffey, & Pagan being core members of our Pen, we still have the opportunity to win 15 more games due to Pen improvements. I get the guys there now aren’t perfect but more reliable on average. What we don’t pick up from the Pen, we can gain from a deeper starting group of arms & should handle any injuries with a clear “next man up” option.
  6. JD-TWINS
    If we could move Maeda into Pen for a 2-3 inning bridge guy from middle of the 6th through the 8th & add a FA reliever like Fulmer or Chafin we’d be set! 27 blown saves last year and if we can get that number down to 12 blown saves……..that’s 93 Wins!! We should have ample depth to compete through the year!!
  7. JD-TWINS
    Same & same! We’re a FA reliever away from very solid club!!
  8. JD-TWINS
    There’s a lot of talk in the various Twins Daily posts regarding Miranda not being good enough at 3B nor Gordon being good enough to play every day. Already taking two big success stories from ‘22 & predicting failure for ‘23. Always looking for the next guys to come up and the grass that’s greener on other side of the hill. Miranda will be fine at 3rd and should hit in the line-up playing 3B 60% of the time. There will be opportunities for him at 1B & DH as well. Gordon was the 2nd best bat in the line-up over the course of the year. .272 BA - 28 doubles with limited AB’s. Solid OF defense - durable. I see these guys being a real important part of our core in Minneapolis going forward!!!!! Everyday starters!
  9. JD-TWINS
    I saw somebody commented on Duran’s location on the list. My assumption is that if we offered up Duran as a trade piece we could get back almost anything we asked for in an everyday player. He’s lights out & maybe 25 yrs old at most - 4 more years of control. Pretty valuable!! The only real thought I have on the list is what is, in my opinion, a big slight change n Nick Gordon. Gordon’s health has been messed up since he got drafted 5-6 years ago. Last year he gained 25lb from January to June. His health is good and he’s getting stronger. He came up as a SS but is limited there - he became our Utility Guy. All good. Due to injuries to our outfielders he was forced to move & start in LF every day. He then became the best option in CF He hadn’t played OF in pro ball. 2022: 65 starts in LF & 33 other starts in CF. 1st year as an outfielder! 405 AB’s - .272 BA ………9 HR ………28 doubles. With 575 AB’s in ‘23 he has a respectable BA - 40 doubles - 12 HR…………he’s gotta be in the Top 20 assets. Larnach - Walner - Kiriloff haven’t combined for a year that good yet. Gordon is in Left everyday this year unless he’s in CF filling in for Buxton - he’s earned it!!
  10. JD-TWINS
    Yep, give him a look as a starter over 2-3 months this year……….if still struggling, take a look at him the balance of the year from the Pen. Hopefully, this approach will tell the organization what they want him to do going forward in ‘24!
  11. JD-TWINS
    Have expected Max to be gone everyday since the Gallo signing. The unfortunate Gallo signing……..wouldn’t you like that $11 million back to spend elsewhere? Somewhere around $9 million for Max seems a lot for a back-up RF. Could use those $ for a FA reliever. I don’t dislike Kepler & had high hopes for the “lift of the shift” to help his production significantly. Still, have assumed he would be traded. Acquisition of Taylor seems to push even more for Max to be gone. When reviewing health history of our OF candidates (Larnach - Buxton - even Kepler) & Gallo’s potential to not hit at all…….it may make sense to keep Max around for real MLB caliber depth. We need to stay away from Jake Cave - Gilberto Celestino types as our options for OF starters!! If we hang on to him both he & Gallo are competing for innings starting Day 1. Personally, I think Gordon earned LF in ‘22 - no matter how many Gold Glove options we may have. With Kepler in mix of 26 we have on Roster injury insurance for our OF. If both Max & Joey excel - great. If we can trade one of them at the Deadline and bring up Lewis to help our offense all the better. At that time a team might take a well rounded Vet along with some prospects for a Top End Arm??
  12. JD-TWINS
    Fulmer & Chafin have experience & are still on FA market. One of them for the 8th & Maeda to Pen as Long Man & we’d be set!!!
  13. JD-TWINS
    I really like 5 guys in rotation with Maeda in Pen. He’s the bridge from middle of 6th through the 8th. Does that twice a week & rest of Pen is well rested. Other option is to piggyback Ober/Maeda as one guy (one starter) & get them to throw 7-8 innings, combined, every 5th start. This helps Pen a bunch!
  14. JD-TWINS
    13 & 13: Larnach will DH & play LF Gordon - Buxton - Gallo is base OF Larnach - Gordon - Gallo is OF v. Righties Gordon - Buxton - Taylor is OF ……OR ………Gordon - Taylor - Kepler is OF v. Lefties Buxton - Larnach - Gallo will DH Taylor in CF as pinch hitter late in games - late inning D - plays against all LH pitching Kepler is traded or plays RF when Gallo is at 1B or DH or resting. Can’t start him and sit Gordon……..,Not often at least! Kirilof - Miranda - Gallo at 1B Hopefully, CC will play 140 at SS with Farmer spelling him. Same with Polanco at 2B with Farmer spelling him for 25 games. Farmer at 3B when Lefties start & Miranda at 1B……….Farmer also spells Miranda for rest - maybe 55 starts at 3B. Lewis up at end of July & either Kepler or Gallo goes at that point.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Pretty negative & not much of a realistic view of the Roster in that previous comment. I’m with you on the facts & opinions!
  16. JD-TWINS
    We have plenty of LH bats……Larnach & Kirilof will be in the roster if they are healthy - no worries. Kepler - Gordon - Gallo are the other Lefty bats we have to play with as well. Walner is our LH last resort!!
  17. JD-TWINS
    Gallo in LF Gordon in CF (unless somebody has a stroke, Gordon is a full time OF) ………Farmer has IF covered. Larnach at DH Kepler in RF Kirilof at 1B If they don’t trade Kepler, this could be a routine line-up vs. RH starters. All of the games Buxton doesn’t start…….at least 35 games up to maybe 50 games. If they want to play Buxton, he’s probably the DH. They have traded for Taylor. No more searching for RH bat, nor anymore rostering of Garlick. Would love to sign Fulmer……or Chafin. Need Pen depth & we’re set!! Piggyback Ober/Maeda for a month in the 5th starter spot and then shift one of them to long relief in Pen after 5-6 weeks.
  18. JD-TWINS
    One view of potential line-ups: Against Lefties: Against Righties: Taylor - R - CF Gordon - L - CF CC - R - SS Kirilof - L - 1B Buxton - R - DH CC - R - SS Polanco - L/R - 2B Larnach - L - LF Miranda - R - 1B Buxton - R - DH Jeffers - R - C Polanco - L/R - 2B Gordon - L - LF Gallo - L - RF Farmer - R - 3B Vazquez - R - C Gallo - L - RF Miranda - R - 3B Am assuming Kepler is traded prior to start of season. Jeffers - Farmer - Taylor are all optimized vs. left handed pitching Gordon - Gallo - Larnach - Kirilof are all optimized vs. right handed pitching Miranda - Buxton - CC - Vazquez - Polanco are always going to be in line-up unless resting, regardless of pitching opponent. Buxton in CF against a lefty just moves Taylor to right to spell Gallo. Hopefully, Lewis will be around to provide Dog Days rest by end of July for Corner Outfielders as well as Polanco & CC perhaps.
  19. JD-TWINS
    I agree, anybody can be traded but trading Lewis without giving him more of a look than the 12 game view from 2022 doesn’t make sense! He was the 1st pick with huge upside. Gotta let him play in the Show for 2-3 months at a minimum. He certainly has a place either at 3B or in corner OF going forward! Gallo - Taylor - Kepler are all gone in 2024. Lewis & Martin……..Larnach - Gordon - Buxton are the probable OF in 2024. Lewis or just about anyone for a Top 10 arm is always a potential option…….doubt Royce isn’t playing in Minnesota for many years to come if he can produce as expected.
  20. JD-TWINS
    It’s not all doom & gloom on offense: Gallo - career .199……. Buxton - career .244……..Larnach - .231 very limited career ………Kirilof - .250 very limited career………Taylor - career .250….,.Jeffers - career .225 (guessing) ………….Farmer - career .254……..Kepler - career .238 MLB AVERAGE BA for 2022 - .243 CC - career .279…….Polanco - career .270……..Miranda - career .261……..Gordon - career .261………Vazquez - career .274 The assumption is that Larnach & Kirilof will far out perform their numbers to date. Both inexperienced & who knows? Taylor will be platooned against LH starters and used to PH against LH pitching & late inning D!! His numbers should be above his career average as his splits against LH are much higher. Farmer will play often and will certainly be maximized against LH pitching. He’s over .800OPS against lefties for careeru
  21. JD-TWINS
    ASSUMING GOOD HEALTH: Gallo can DH - Buxton will DH - I do like Larnach getting nearly 1/2 of the DH at bats though - Miranda may see a few games here at DH for rest - same with CC. Gallo will plug the hole we need filled between RF - 1B - DH as needed. Kirilof, if healthy at 1B - Gallo if needed - Miranda against LH pitching. I believe that Gordon & Larnach have LF covered. I still see Gordon in CF against RH pitching for 50 games. Taylor has all CF starts against LH pitching, maybe 35. Buck has the other 75? No Celestino on roster - LARNACH will be on roster. Hopefully, no Pagán on roster - Ober/Maeda piggyback for first month & then one goes to long relief, 2-3 innings twice per week. This really saves others in Pen!!
  22. JD-TWINS
    I’d completely agree, essentially I do, but I have to see how he hits at DH vs. CF - can’t imagine any difference though. How the team hits - how many wins we get when he’s DHing or in CF should drive the playoff line-up choices. Maybe seems to be knit picking here but you can be sure someone in organization will have the data on these variables. The one thing that’s difficult to do is to admit we love watching Buck in CF but we don’t need him with Taylor’s World Series experience AND his 2021 Gold Glove. IMO, our need for Buxton in CF is a bit emotional. Definitely NEED him in the offensive line-up!! Potential play-off line-up v. Lefty pitcher: Vazquez - Farmer - CC - Polanco - Miranda Gordon - Taylor - Gallo/Kepler (whichever is on roster) DH - Buxton BENCH: Kirilof - Larnach - Lewis - Jeffers Also, IMO, to make room for Lewis late July……..either Kepler is traded at deadline or Gallo is traded or more likely DFA’d. If Kepler isn’t traded before season it will be fun to watch the competition with Gallo for RF innings & AB’s!
  23. JD-TWINS
    5 DAYS LATER - Changes!: Same 2 catchers P. Lopez - Mahle - Ryan - Gray - Ober Maeda - Duran - Jax - Megill - Moran - Thielbar - J. Lopez - FA signing (Fulmer - Chafin - etc.)………probably Pagán though Miranda - CC - Polanco - Kirilof - Farmer Gordon - Buxton - Gallo - Larnach - Taylor - Kepler Balance of KEY guys on the 40 man: Winder - Alcala - Varland - SWR - Henriquez Sands - Balazovic - Martin - Julien - Lewis - Lee With better starting pitching - similar offense - better Pen. If we don’t blow saves like ‘22…….rate of 27 I believe. If we only blow 12 saves, it’s gong to happen some, that’s an improvement of 15 games to 93 W’s in ‘23. Realistic?
  24. JD-TWINS
    Taylor was the Gold Glove winner in 2021. Theoretically, if Buxton didn’t play a game in CF we’d be good! Seeing an athlete make spectacular plays in the outfield is cool but having Buxton in the batter’s box is what will give the Team the most value!! He played 92 games in 2022 & that’s the MOST he’s played since 2017……….doesn’t matter why/how he got hurt - he’s often hurt. Having him play 75 games in CF & DH 60 games would be wonderful! Gordon plays Center when there’s a RH starting pitcher. He could start 55 games there. Buxton 75 games. Taylor, the 32 games vs. LH starting pitching, while Buxton is DH. Later innings - lefty in from pen to face Gallo/Gordon…….Taylor pinch hits ands stays in OF. Win/Win…….better situational offense & then better defense. Could see this happening couple times per week.
  25. JD-TWINS
    With Martin & Lewis (marketing op there for all the 80 plus retirees) being groomed as potential outfielders and with Walner & Larnach & Kirilof on the verge of performing with Big Club, I think Celestino should settle in at St. Paul and wait to be traded. Hope he improves there, don’t see a fit with the Twins. Gallo - Taylor - Kepler all gone after ‘23 or sooner? Gotta assume yes. Buxton is going to be a 50% of season in CF guy, hopefully, and another 30% at DH. This is with good health. Not having Garlick in OF is a good thing. I still see Gordon in CF for 40-50 games. Taylor starts in 35 games against Lefty starters. Late inning replacement as lefties come out of the Pen & he can PH & stay in OF. Ensures good/really good outfield play.
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