JD-TWINS

Gordon was battling an intestinal issue for years - gained 25lb over 1st 6 months of ‘22. Had 28 doubles & 9 HR in 405 AB’s in ‘22. New found strength & endurance continues to grow going forward with his health improvements. He’s a 15 HR - 40 double guy with 575AB’s. Same OF versatility as Gallo. Only played OF one year professionally. Gallo is a career .199 hitter. Not really that concerned in what he did in his career year of ‘21. He’s potentially 2 months into the season from being DFA’d. He’s got a bunch of talent around him (gotta perform) and if he succeeds, great!! Just don’t see Nick Gordon being the odd man out. Kepler has got to be traded. Makes sense for return talent in trade. Makes baseball sense based on Larnach - Walner - Kirilof - Gordon - Gallo (all LH hitting OF) being the other 5 of 6 outfielders in the organization. Makes $ sense to rid organization of his salary.

.837 OPS career vs. lefties - seems straight forward - in the line-up somewhere every time we face a lefty!!

That’s an entire starting outfield!!! Pagan is worth a little bit but I have no problem having him be involved in the trade. If this is for Pablo López, not sure who, it’s too much. Kepler - Pagan - Larnach should be enough for a #3 starter……..didn’t finish 2022 real well either. Maybe sub .500 W-L for career. I get he pitches for Marlins……still gotta get guys out efficiently or not a lot of worth to TWINS. Repeating - repeating - LUZARDO from Marlins. Check out stats vs. P. Lopez.

BIRD IN HAND is real!! Arraez is here through ‘25. The assumption that our prospects are going to step in, or should step in because of “athletic promise” or what they did in high A Ball, and hit .315 in the Show, is absolutely ridiculous. Arraez is a .314 career guy over 4 seasons……..11 guys in the game hit .300 or better in ‘22. Should we assume our prospects are one of the top 10 average hitters in the league? Kirilof is the guy people point to as the heir apparent at 1B if Arraez gets traded……,he’s coming off career saving wrist surgery. He’s never played regularly not due to lack of opportunity but due to injury. He can’t be relied on until we see his results through July/August.

I’ve been touting the Kepler - Martin - Pagan or López trade for the Marlin’s Luzardo…….longer runway & better stuff than López. Only last year (100.3 innings) was successful …. 3.32 ERA……11K/9 innings……..1.03 WHIP.

Lee & Lewis seem to me to be the everyday prospects closest to MLB solid contributors. Still waiting for Larnach & Kirilof to actually contribute…….with Arraez at 25 & Miranda at 24, we have a lot of young guys (3-4 more at AA or AAA) that can contribute big things along with Vázquez - Polanco - CC - Buxton (veteran group) & there’s only 9 spots in the line-up. We need to consider moving some youth from Farm System that is now expendable with the Correa signing and get a front line pitcher. To me, Martin’s versatility in IF & OF & his outstanding ‘22 Fall Ball offense pushes him to front of prospect trade line. Top end marketability!!! I don’t know what trade partners want nor am I any kind of expert on our Minor League talent but I do know Marlins need left handed bats. Suggestion below that may make sense for Marlins? Open to other guys coming up based on what pop trade partner’s wants. Kepler - López or Pagan - Martin (not Lee nor Lewis) or whoever to Marlins For Luzardo PLEASE!!

You are certainly right about our general balance through the line-up. The concern stems from, in my opinion, that Gallo is a .199 career hitter and we probably want to sit him against LH pitching so we have some viable chance at success. Polanco hits both ways - Arraez - CC - Miranda - Vázquez - Buxton are all guys that are expected to hit against guys throwing from either side. The younger guys - platoon guys that have poor success from same side pitchers are guys we are trying to protect. Exactly why Garlick & Farmer may play OF/DH when Lefties are throwing against us. Same with Gordon & Larnach & Kirilof & Arraez & Gallo may all be in the line-up vs. Righties.

Career numbers…… seems like a reasonably balanced offense: C - Vázquez .274 BA DH - Larnach .239 BA 1B - Arraez .314 BA 2B - Polanco .270 BA SS - Correa .279 BA 3B - Miranda .261 BA LF - Gordon .261 BA CF - Buxton .244 BA RF - Gallo .199 BA 3 guys with averages less than .260 & all 3 have quite a bit of Pop or at least the expectation that they will hit for Power Kirilof - Farmer - Garlick - Jeffers are reasonable bench guys………lots of DH at bats for Buxton - Kirilof - Larnach - Arraez - Garlick

OF: Gordon - Buxton - Gallo (Larnach - Farmer) IF: Miranda - CC - Polanco - Arraez (Kirilof - Farmer) DH: Garlick - against lefties DH: Larnach - Kirilof - Arraez against righties C: Vázquez - Jeffers Assuming health…………..Best 13 as of now……..Lewis in late summer may take Garlick’s spot due to IF - OF - DH flexibility.

I agree that Buxton - Gallo - Gordon - Larnach are in the OF for sure. Kepler has to be traded. If we could, I’d keep him and lose Gallo but that’s not happening. Due to last year’s performance & the expectation for slight betterment each year, Gordon starts in LF & plays 45 plus games in CF. Larnach plays a bunch of LF & some RF along with a bunch of DH at bats. Bad news, IMO, is that Kepler at $8-9.5 million is not what Marlins are looking for, at least not as just one piece. They (Marlins) need left handed bats!! Kepler, along with another guy or two with control and league minimum contracts would be more realistic. Luzardo from Marlins For Martin (IF & OF potential) - Kepler - Pagan or López

Kepler has to go, somehow. After Gallo signing this seems obvious. Gordon hit .272 had 28 doubles & 9 HR in 405 AB’s. He gained 25lb from January to June. With his speed & tendency to pull the ball he has should make some hay with the SHIFT elimination as well. With 575 AB’s he is a 40 double guy with 15 HR - durable - good speed - 80 games in LF & 45 games in CF. He played 65 games in LF & 33 games in CF in ‘22. The only reason he didn’t play more outfield was because we had nobody else effective at 2B after Polanco shutdown for last 55 games of the year. We were forced to watch an overmatched Celestino and equally overmatched Jake Cave the last 2 months. With a former starting SS as our new infield utility guy Gordon is officially an outfielder. Comparing him with Celestino is a real stretch! With the lack of actual signings of a RH corner outfielder …….& we pursued 3-4 different guys…….this seems to make it obvious Celestino isn’t the answer for the Twins FO in ‘23!! OF: Gordon - Buxton - Gallo (Larnach - Kirilof) IF: Miranda - CC - Polanco - Arraez (Farmer) C: Vázquez - Jeffers DH &/or RH hitting outfielder. ????? I’ve heard on MLB Network that FO has some inclination that Farmer may be able to spell Gallo vs. LH pitching in RF. Maybe LF for Farmer with Larnach in RF? Not sure about this as a reality i’m but it would be handy. Farmer’s bat is as good as any of the guys we looked at in FA…..OF defense? We contended all spring & summer of ‘22 with Gordon playing OF most of the time.

Polanco is the guy with bad legs……77 games in 2018 after a full season in 2017. 104 games in 2022. Ankle & knee problems. Arraez started 129 last year & played in 144 games.

Unfortunately, Gallo hit .169 last year to drag his career BA to .199. Unbelievable, I know. Arraez hit .366 with RISP in ‘22. If he bats down in the lineup a couple spots he protects the guy in front of him and has 85 RBI.

Polanco: 29 yrs old in ‘23 only 77 games in 2018 after most of a full season in 2017. 104 games in 2022 - 16 HR - 56 RBI solid defense at 2B 56 RBI batting 3rd - 4th - 5th predominantly .235 BA in ‘22 - career is .270ish ………………… Arraez: 26 yrs old in ‘23 129 starts - 144 games in 2022 - 8 HR - 49 RBI solid defense at 1B 49 RBI batting lead-off predominantly .316 BA in ‘22 - career is .314 ……………………. IMO…..Arraez, if batting in the spots Polanco was in would have significantly more RBI. .366 RISP in ‘22. Polanco has more power but Arraez has an advantage with contact capability and BA. IMO….we have an unproven, oft injured Alex Kiriloff as our next in line at 1B………we have 4-5 guys in system that could play 2B since the signing of CC. Polanco had an impressive 2021……I would not trade either of these guys. Polanco seemed he was banged up more than his normal in ‘22. Gotta see where he’s at with his health & bat in ‘23. Can’t trade Arraez!!!

Luis Arraez 2022 - .366 BA with RISP, 48 RBI with 80% of his games batting out of lead-off spot. LAST GUY the opposing teams wants to see coming to bat with guys on base. Not CC - Not Buxton. If he bats 3rd or 5th he’s trying to “drive in runs” vs. “get on base” out of lead-off spot. Had 9 HR in ‘22 & can elevate that to 12 with just more experience and hitting in a different spot in line-up. If he hits .325 with RISP down in the line-up he has 85 RBI! .366 BA with RISP is not someone that should be discussed in trade talks.

How many times have Lewis (12 games) - Lee - Larnach - Kiriloff hit .300 in the Show??? Only Lee, after most of one season in our system, seems to be able to stay on the field. Can’t keep chasing the next good hitter based on headlines & ignore the bird in hand! ELEVEN guys in MLB hit .300 or better in 2022. Arraez has a 4 year batting average of .314. He started 129 games & played in 144 games in ‘22. He’s above average at 1B. Gotta be a place for him, at 25 yrs old, on the Twins roster for another 6 years plus. Bat Arraez in the 3 or 5 spot, where Kirilof may be plugged in, and he’ll drive in runs. He slap hits out of the 1 or 2 spot in the line-up because his job is “….to get on base”. He can protect someone in the line-up and drive in runs down in the line-up a bit. He’s a 35 double - 12 HR guy and a 130 single guy as a regular. With his bat to ball skills he’s going to hit .300 plus in the middle of the line-up and he’ll walk if he’s not seeing good pitches. I think all 4 guys you mention can be solid pieces for the Twins!! I do think that of the 4, I’d view Kirilof as the most disposable for pitching. Can’t imagine that with his health history anyone is very interested. Luzardo of Marlins should be the upgrade we are looking for in ‘23 & future. 100.3 innings in ‘22 - 3.32 ERA - 1.2 K’s/9 - 1.03 WHIP - Lefty - 18 starts…..25 yrs old going into his 5th season. As with all arms, health is assumed - that said, big upside with this guy! For any 3 of these guys: Lopez - Celestino - Martin or Kirilof - Kepler - Sands - Jeffers - Pagan - 1 of any farm system IF other than Lewis or Lee. Can’t imagine this not working for Miami & Twins keep the batting champ.

How about Martin - Kepler - Celestino for Luzardo??

Potentially, he could DH on Sunday afternoons against a lefty starter here & there but only 5-6 times through the year. This gets Farmer in the line-up, RH bat while keeping Miranda’s RH bat in line-up. Buxton - Jeffers - Polanco all RH bats as well. No reason to move anyone into SS unless Correa loses range - his arm is superior and should remain so………he may start playing 3rd at 32 yrs. or so? Too athletic and arm to superior to end up at 1st base.

Kepler can’t make $7-9.5 million this year and play behind Joey Gallo. I would much rather have had Kepler in right & not have Gallo but that’s not the case. Gallo blocking Gordon in LF doesn’t make sense. I really think that the Shift elimination will help Kepler add 20-25 points to BA. Stating it’s not his fault that the Mgr. keeps penciling him into the middle of the line-up when he should be at 7 or lower seems odd. He did hit 36 HR’s in 2019. Maybe the expectations of a little power aren’t completely out of reason. Gallo just makes Max a bad fit - would like to see him on our roster but it’s not practical with the young guys behind him.

MINNESOTA TWINS is where Rich Rollins played………..intermittently sharing 3rd base duties some years with Harmon Killebrew.

There’s always another trade package or another option in a trade. Sometimes (often) the two sides can’t compromise & get anything done. If we can’t get a pitcher we want unless we trade Luis Arraez as part of the deal, maybe we need to realize how valuable he is and how much other teams understand his value. Batting Champ at .316 in ‘22. (.314 BA over 1st 4 years in Show) .366 BA with RISP in ‘22……25 years old……should be a no brainer.

Agreed. Arbitration is there to protect the players, he’ll get closer to $6million! I disagree with the Author in that while the article is positive, it suggests Arraez could be traded under proper circumstance. .314 BA over 4 seasons Played 144 games & through injury in ‘22 Defensive flexibility Will be only 26 years old in April .366 with RISP in ‘22 (bat him 3rd or 5th & he’d protect the guy in front of him & would probably have 85 RBI or more) Currently “a light, contact hitter” but that’s what you are supposed to do when leading off - get on base! Acting like Lewis, Lee, Julien (am optimistic but Show Me) are at a level of Arraez is like saying some kid playing WR at USC is going to be Justin Jefferson……..he’s got most of 4 years in the Show and is just 25. All this on top of infectious enthusiasm and solid Team guy……..can’t trade this type of player.

Agreed, not a terrible move but not something to get too excited about…….If he flies for a 5th starter in ‘24 we win! Paddack & Ryan can be the “experienced” part of the Staff in ‘24 when SWR & Varland are going every 5th day.

My Marlin’s executive eye catcher: 4 players under control…….Lopez for a couple more years. The other 3 guys are under control for the foreseeable future. Walner - López - Celestino - IF prospect (other than Lewis or Lee) for Luzardo

Luzardo from Miami 🤞🤞 for inexpensive control guys back to Miami: Luzardo to Twins Marlins get IF from farm system (not Lee nor Lewis)……….Celestino………Pagan or López. If we need to be more aggressive, Martin from farm instead of IF piece. Maybe Walner? Kepler for sure & Polanco (reluctantly) are in play for starting pitching. We have instant depth at 3rd & 2nd with the CC signing. Arraez - Larnach - Lee - Lewis - Miranda - Kirilof - Buxton - Correa - Vazquez - Duran - Gordon……….to me, these guys are the Core moving forward & shouldn’t be in trade talks prior to ‘23 results. Realistically, anyone else is fair to consider.