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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Exactly my point……if oft injured Polanco hit .316 he’d have had an amazing season. If somehow Kepler hit 8HR’s but hit .316 he’d be up for an extension. If somehow Buxton hit half the HR’s he hit last year but had a .316 avg. it would be a great adjustment to his approach. .314 Average over FOUR years. .316 doesn’t seem to be an outlier. I get all 3 of these guys have a defensive advantage over Louis!! Given. His “knee problems” seem to be less of an issue than any of these other 3 guys health issues though, as he was in 144 games last year. 3 more homers increase per year for 2 years & maybe 20 points less BA due to a mild change in approach. Is he capable of this? This leaves him at .296 BA with 14 homers in 2024. We HOPE Alex Kirilof could do this!! Again, RBI often are driven by where you are in the line-up. Gary Sanchez - Ryan Jeffers - Garlick - Cave - Celestino weren’t exactly filling up the bases last year prior to Louis coming to bat. He’s a 75 RBI guy minimum batting 3rd or 5th. Line-up spot change is something to consider with his lack of speed. Great protection for anyone in our line-up! Buxton - Polanco - Larnach - Miranda - Arraez - Vázquez - Gordon - Farmer - Gallo………health is an issue but with some fortune, this line-up is competitive. Kirilof - Walner - Garlick - Jeffers……early in the year, Gordon & Arraez handle the infield utility action.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Had to look up Louis stats: 121 games in ‘21 (w/o a position) 144 games in ‘22 .316 batting champ in ‘22 .314 (not.313 earlier referenced) BA over 4 MLB seasons 8 HR’s in ‘22 Do we think he has the POTENTIAL to hit a mere .305 (.340 OBP) & 12 HR’s in ‘23??? How many RBI does he rack up if he doesn’t bat 1 or 2 in the line-up……70-75?? I’ll take the bet on the last statement! Trade him? 10th ranked asset??? Eye test should suffice in this case - stats take him over the top. 4 successful years not just 1. Gotta be in our Top 4 assets!
  3. JD-TWINS
    Don’t get how Arraez was #11 going into ‘22 & played probably (?) more games than anyone else last year……..maybe Gordon played more? And he came into ‘23 as #10 after winning the batting title. Many say he had a career year batting .316 in ‘22 & we should consider trading him at high value, before his knees crumble, but his average over 4 MLB seasons is .313 & I assume he started at least 140 games last year as most of the other regulars dropped around him. Ober needs to be available at some point for more than 3-4 consecutive starts to warrant #6 regardless of how many years of control we may have. Thanks for the List & fueling the debate!!
  4. JD-TWINS
    Miranda only up from late May ‘22 through September……….pace of 23HR’s in a full season. Looking forward to him climbing the asset list in ‘23!!
  5. JD-TWINS
    Trading a veteran starter that went 8-5 with a 3.08 ERA & another guy we’re forced to trade “somewhere” due to the Gallo signing for a back-up SS is senseless. Why trade arguably our best starter? Kepler & López, OK. Farmer is a middle of the pack MLB defender that will hit .255 & 14HR’s. Why is everyone panicked about our SS with 2-3 guys in Farm System on the way? We won 2 World Series with Greg Gagne. Farmer is more than adequate placeholder. You rant about signing injured/washed pitchers but you suggest obtaining Chris Sale as a big move. …..huh?????
  6. JD-TWINS
    Begged for Bassitt - then Eovaldi - thought Kluber could be justified - Wacha is as deep as we can go……….still need to go there though & start year with Maeda in the PEN. PLEASE SIGN Fulmer or Chafin or Britton to ensure BP depth! PLEASE!
  7. JD-TWINS
    Don’t get me started on Eovaldi………!!! 2 years for $34 million - almost free in the shade of the Correa offer & when contrasted with the Gallo signing!
  8. JD-TWINS
    Agreed, letting Kepler go for little or nothing makes no sense. Can’t realistically think playing Kepler every day instead of Gordon every day in our outfield makes good sense offensively. Signing of Gallo (not thrilled about) means Kepler has to go - no question. I’d prefer to keep Kepler & have never heard of the Gallo signing!! Not real. Celestino - Walner - Kepler - Sands - Winder - Pagan - López - Jeffers are all pieces we can put together for pitching or a RH bat or both. I’d like to see Walner develop into a masher in MN - love to see Jeffers hit .245 & improve defensively in MN - Seeing any of these 4 pitchers become effective would be great in MN……….can’t all happen & probably none of it happens with guys in front of them. Please use multiple trade pieces together so the return really has value!!!
  9. JD-TWINS
    Gallo is our new RF. Pretty sure Gordon starts 100 games in LF. Another 30 in CF. Larnach will play some LF & will DH. Kirilof some LF but more at 1B & some DH. Walner may beat out Gallo by August. Kepler - Pagan - López for a starter would be super!!
  10. JD-TWINS
    Wacha is as low as we can go in FA for a starter! I still feel a veteran starter from Spring Training that can get Maeda into a bridge roll out of the pen for first 2-3 months of ‘23 is beneficial. The odds of all of our starters being healthy are slim & depth (with experience) is going to be helpful vs. leaning on guys with 1-4 starts in MLB. We can ease Varland & others into the staff, if desired, through July. 6 starters may work and therefore allowing guys to work longer into games? In this case I’d use Varland or best young choice out of Spring Training, along with Wacha, and again have Maeda in the Pen. Staff: Ober - Gray - Ryan - Wacha (sign) - Mahle - Varland…………an awfully lot of RH 92-95MPH guys!!!! Fulmer (sign) - Moran - Maeda - Thielbar - Megill - Jax - Duran If we don’t move on Wacha, sign a 2nd RP from Free Agency Mkt.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Kepler will be traded at some point before March. Could not have signed Gallo with the intent of keeping Kepler. Larnach plays LF when Gordon is in Center - maybe 35 games. Larnach can play left when Gordon is forced into playing 2B when Polanco is inevitably unable to play due to his bad knees - maybe 20 games. Larnach as DH 70 games. I agree that Gordon has been ruled out of SS by the organization but if he’s our 3rd or 4th best returning batter from ‘22 he needs to play! That makes him our LF around 100 starts.
  12. JD-TWINS
    I’m not sure how to help Pagán nor López since I honestly believe their issues are between the ears. They both have good to exceptional stuff for their roles……they lack consistent command & I don’t know that is linked to mechanics. Attention span, focus, & intestinal fortitude is where I think these two are lacking. Megill is the guy, IMO, that has a real upside in the near-term. He has plus curveball & plus fastball at 98MPH. His command isn’t great but if it were he wouldn’t be hittable now. Guys sit on one pitch and often relentlessly foul it off to get deep in counts. With two pitches to draw on Megill becomes a lesser foe than his stuff would denote! He needs a 3rd pitch……I get it’s easy to say & not as easy to execute. With a change-up OR a cutter he could throw maybe 15% of the time, he’d allow his other 2 pitches some defense and would have a 3rd speed. The 3rd pitch wouldn’t need to be in zone a lot, just a “show pitch” for the most part. He’s got 2 plus pitches & he’s our 7th/8th option in the pen ………need to coach him up!
  13. JD-TWINS
    Don’t see room for Celestino on the roster in ‘23. His almost certainty to put the ball in play from the right 1/3 of the field to RF foul line is an issue. That said, his ability to provide power seems suspect going forward. If he needs more development, it gives Gordon another year to develop further as back-up to Buxton in CF. Assuming others develop to expectations, Larnach - Kirilof - Gordon - Walner - Buxton taking up our 5 outfield spots going forward in ‘24, it doesn’t seem there is a spot for Celestino in our plans forward.m. Obviously, trades of one of the LH guys could change things. This year, if healthy, he seems blocked by Garlick as well.
  14. JD-TWINS
    All good…. don’t want to detract because I saw Aguilera go from 4th-5th starter for the Mets to lockdown closer for TWINS. However, John Smoltz was special as a starter that had success in the Pen, while being innings protected, for 2-3 years is my recollection.
  15. JD-TWINS

    Joey Gallo?

    JD-TWINS commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    Tough to justify Gallo for sure……particularly since we did nothing to strengthen the Pitching Staff. Was really pissed when it was announced!! However, I was upbeat that Kepler may bounce back so I guess have to give Gallo benefit of the doubt. If he starts 130 games, bats 9th, hits .215, & hits 25 HR’s we’ll live with that. I guess FO was just tired of Max’s lack of punch and recent lack of availability. They chose Gallo at .030 points lower BA and 15 more homers??. HAVE to assume FO is working on moving Kepler with another piece or two for a starter. I saw someone picking at Gallo’s health in another comment,…….he was under 100 games in 2019 but played 57 in 2020 when league total was around 65 games played. Fine in ‘21 & ‘22. Seems as or more reliable than Max. “Maybe” is all we got with Gallo……and about 8 other guys?.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Have only seen a couple commenters put Gordon in LF as the everyday starter for ‘23. After last season, can’t imagine that not being the case. He can still play 20 games at second to help spell Polanco & another 30 games in CF to help get Buxton through the season. That leaves him 95 games in LF unless there’s some significant regression……..That leaves 40 - 50 starts for Larnach…..20 or so starts for Garlick in LF. Jax & Duran are Pen anchors! I’d like to see López moved along with Kepler and a prospect to land a depth starter. Sign Fulmer or Hand or maybe Chafin to bolster Pen. Concerned about expecting too much from a guy coming off his 2nd ACL & another 10-12 months away from the live games. Farmer will suffice at SS & if Lewis can contribute in late ‘23 that’s great. Miranda playing average defense at 3rd with 20 dingers & .265 average and we should all be ecstatic. Has the basis of a “professional hitter.” Would be nice to get somebody behind him for a little protection in the line-up! (not Kepler - Celestino - etc.) An aside, Polanco, and his production this year seems to be a big key for our offense. With Correa & Kepler gone we need a Vet to come through and post numbers that meet expectations. Line-up: Arraez1B - BuxtonCF - LarnachDH - Miranda3B - Polanco2B - VazquezC - GordonLF - FarmerSS - GalloRF Kirilof-Garlick-Jeffers-Walner ……..Kirilof, Gordon & Arraez serve as Infield depth with a number of guys able to DH.
  17. JD-TWINS
    What do you guys think of Megill? I get he’s relegated to Pen, fine, but it seems he has two Plus pitches with his 98MPH & curveball. He’s similar to Duran w/o a 3rd pitch. Seems to me he’d be dominant by adding a 3rd pitch. To me, a cutter would be easiest to work on & master but a change-up would be equally effective. I also get one doesn’t just add a 3rd pitch w/o issues. He just seems to have such good stuff that a 3rd pitch used 15% of the time would not allow or minimize hitters ability to sit on one pitch. His command could be better but nobody’s perfect. Am hoping new pitching coach - coaching staff can get him developed!!! Thoughts on what others see with Megill?
  18. JD-TWINS
    First & foremost we need to compete, like 90% of the other teams in MLB……”giving the kids a shot” is what AAA is all about. Sorry, keep reading this & want us to focus on winning. Obviously, the Show needs to be experienced at some point but making trades with the batting Champ - (4 year career .313 BA) so some kids get a chance, makes no sense. Kepler is going to be traded. Who we can wrap up with him is for debate. Larnach is high end prospect and should command value…..I agree we need more pitching if available. Can’t trade the, arguably, only consistent bat in the line-up. No problem with Kepler - even Larnach - somebody else on the prospect side being lumped together for an arm. Seems Marlins already traded in starter…..not sure how many arms they have to move? Pitching wins games - agreed!!
  19. JD-TWINS
    I understand his compensation is set up that way. If his agreement reads that way it, seems (he has to start if healthy enough to start) gray on who makes the determination of health? Not trying to slight him on $ (if healthy, I would re-work $ if Team beneficial from Pen) - if he can help more & ease back after surgery for 10-12 weeks out of the Pen it seems beneficial for both parties! If he’s locked in as a starter not sure why there’s been any talk about signing FA pitching the last 2 months?
  20. JD-TWINS
    These guys have undeniable upside! I like the fact that we have $ to sign a Vet starter in FA. I think Cueto to start the year as insurance and letting these 2 young guys develop a bit more makes sense. Also, a Vet signing would have enough cache’ to move Maeda to the Pen. I think that’s his best value in ‘23 off surgery. If Ober slips up or anyone is hurt out of other 4 guys, then you bring Varland or SWR. They contribute in ‘23 but are brought in slowly & as needed.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Can we all agree that Kepler should not be considered a candidate for our ‘23 roster!?!? Seems extremely remote unless we trade Larnach &/or Gordon - can’t imagine either of those happening. Sure seems to be an absolute that he is traded with 3-4 different guys from ‘22 roster (Gordon - Larnach - Kirilof - Garlick) battling for LF & then the additional signing of Gallo. IMO Celestino isn’t worth considering a rostered player for Twins either. Not at level we need across the board. Powerless - poor base running - overall defense isn’t special. 70% of balls in play are to straightaway RF to foul line. Doesn’t exude MLB hitter. These two out of the OF picture with Garlick being a not very likely LF (more of a DH) is the only way Larnach & Gordon get enough at bats!
  22. JD-TWINS
    Thanks for Longoria info!!…….how does Miranda get any rest at this point? Arraez at 3B….seems a stretch for more than emergency innings. Gordon at SS & Farmer at 3B? Seems like it may need to be addressed. I guess he plays a bunch of innings until we get Lewis back in July? Kirilof - Gordon - Gallo - Larnach - Buxton - Garlick …………Arraez - Polanco - Farmer - Miranda…….Vazquez - Jeffers…………seems we need that back-up IF, DH until Lewis can go mid-summer. WHO IS IT? Profar?? Farm system guy??
  23. JD-TWINS
    Agreed - Gordon is everyday LF at this point with the ability to play CF & 2B to spell Buxton & Polanco. Larnach - Kirilof - Garlick - Gallo need to split up their playing time in LF when Gordon is playing elsewhere, RF, DH, some 1B. None of them starts in front of Gordon nor Arraez. Time for a number of guys to break out and have availability and start to show productivity! I still like the consideration of Evan Longoria for RH bat at DH & a 30 game back-up for Miranda. VET at 35 and class guy - connection with Baldelli from Rays as well………any thoughts on him for depth?
  24. JD-TWINS
    If Eovaldi was too much risk relative to injury/availability, Sale certainly can’t be worthwhile as a FA, let alone a trade piece!
  25. JD-TWINS
    I’d trade Celestino in combination with just about anyone for some upside in return. Would prefer not to see him in Twins OF going forward! Upside with Laureano though, is blah. Relative to roster, Pagan is less desirable than Celestino. If we could combine them with Kepler (gotta be moved after Gallo signing) for a pitcher, that would be a home run! Polanco is in last year - agreed. Kepler gone somehow. Gallo a one year guy. I’d extend the better performers between Maeda - Mahle - Gray by end of June for best economics. Maeda has a fresh arm after surgery, once strengthened. He may be the best option of the 3? With your core of 10 players plus the 2 catchers, we’d be at $42 million/ year. Add a big bat for $15M. Total is $57M. Arraez at $6.5 ……Buxton at $15……….Vazquez at $10…….everyone else at $750K. Go get a big ARM and sign another shutdown guy in backend. New arm at $25M - BP guy $12M…….extensions Gray at $16M - Mahle at $16M - Maeda at $13M. Rest of staff maybe $25M. GENERALLY: Pitching $97M …….Everyday guys $57M = $154M……….Solid pitching with Ace plus our 3 vets from current squad. A nice young club on the field with a veteran power bat. Right on target with budget for ‘24!!
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