JD-TWINS

Not sure what is driving the forecast??…..only really have a good understanding of ERA. Pretty sure if our Staff has a cumulative ERA of 3.30 we are going to be awfully difficult to beat!!! WARP of 14 plus seems positive as well.

I like Balazovic as this year’s Duran. Good stuff!! If we can get him working in short situations in St. Paul for 2 months he could be the guy in 6th or 7th……2-3 times per week. Worth considering……Sands has got to be the gimmick reliever, not a starter …….,,,Winder’s shoulder issues seem to make relief seem like the only way to stay healthy. With these 3 additional pieces in relief roles One or Two gotta be effective!

Farmer - Taylor - Jeffers - Miranda - Buxton - CC core group v. LH pitching 20-25% of the games. Gordon - Larnach - Keppler - Gallo - Kiriloff core group v, RH pitching 75-80% of games. Polanco hits from both sides. I don’t see the weak offense concerns …….health yes…….hitting talent no.

Julien is our organization’s #15 prospect - only plays 2B now. Can’t have rookie 3B - 2B (Lewis & Lee) and have their back-up be a rookie. This is why I stick with the lower risk veteran, Farmer, in ‘24. Larnach/Kirilof at DH &1B vs. RH pitching. I don’t see Larnach playing in OF more than half time.

Looks like we got our 2nd baseman……Mr. Lee as well as our 3B …….Mr. Lewis starting in ‘24. With these two guys developing and the ability to roll Larnach - Miranda - Kirilof principally through the 1B - DH rolls is pretty exciting. Kirilof plays 1B 100 games - DH 30 games Miranda plays 3B 30 games - 1B 60 games - DH 30 games Larnach at DH 50 games - LF 80 games Buxton in CF 80 games - DH 50 games Gordon LF 80 games - CF 50 games Same 2 Catchers I’d keep Farmer for ‘24 for veteran depth at SS & 2B RF is up in the air…. Maybe a platoon of Walner & Rodriguez OR dare I say, an improved version of Max Kepler from ‘23? Rodriguez - Buxton - Gordon - CC - Larnach - Kiriloff - Lee - Lewis - Vazquez Bench: Miranda - Jeffers - Kepler - Farmer Martin/Polanco/Walner are options …..even Gallo, if he goes off this year. We’ll have to see what ‘23 brings! Mr. Lee will be in the line-up in ‘24!!

Give Hand a $3.0 million base with 2-3 incentive levels that could get him to $4.5 million, otherwise he’ll wait. It’s a slap in the face to a guy who has had a good run for 7 years…….not the same guy but he did have a 2.8 ERA last year for people that still pay attention to ERA. What are we paying Pagan & P. Lopez?

I like Gordon - like him a lot! I’ve often wondered why nobody has mentioned him as trade material for pitching in the past……he’s got a better upside than many of our other options for other teams. It seems that even though he started almost 70% of games last year and 65% in OF, people see him as a Utility IF. As you mention, Gordon could be part of a trade just because he’s of more value than any other OF except Buxton. I think it would be short sighted! I see Gordon playing LF (80 games) & backing up Buxton in CF (50 games) v. RH pitching for the next 3 years or more!! He’s all upside, from 28 doubles & 9 HR in 405 AB’s & first healthy season (gained 25 lb in ‘22) & first season in OF. He’s a potential 20 HR & 40 double guy with 575 AB’s as he gains strength & experience. He’s got all the upside any of the RH hitting IF’s that we want to convert to OF. Excited for Lewis to join Big Club - I see him displacing Kepler or Gallo around the trade deadline on the roster. If either of those 2 aren’t performing or if they are both performing, one will be traded to help somebody else with OF needs.

???? - gotta assume the club will not let him rush back regardless of how good he looks. Hope to see him playing in August - worst case he can the added roster spot for September! If he’s healthy his stick could really help down the stretch.

Pitching isn’t all about spin rates or velocity or strike outs. Gotta have decent stuff but Hand’s attraction is his experience & what he has between the ears! Pagan - López - Hand in the 8th with RH, LH, RH batters coming up. Who do you pick? Not close for me - sign Hand!!

Not Pagan!

Right field bleachers are a good seat - right on top of the field! Have lived in Cincinnati for 32 years…..from Red Wing. Check out “OTR”…..,Over the Rhine ……NW area of downtown. Lots of restaurants & bars to investigate. Northern Row Brewery on far east side of OTR is cool place - old skulling boats & industrial feel from 1800’s. Try the “Turf Club”…..on east side of city……best burgers found anywhere!!! Montgomery Inn Boathouse is a big Cinti tourist stop - it’s cool. East of the park about 1 mile. Really Great Ribs!!! See ya at the Park!

3rd pitch development is key. Guys get ahead in the count & sit on his curve or fastball. If you’re looking exclusively fastball - you can hit it, even at 98MPH 3rd pitch can just be for show 15% of the time. Needs to be an expectation with hitter that something other than curve/fastball is on the way. His curve is good - 98MPH is good…..needs 3rd pitch and a well called game from Vázquez/Jeffers!!

Unfair to lump Moran in with Pagan & López. He’s. it a problem!

I like Joe Mauer & respect his numbers & career a bunch……. if he tares his knee up like Oliva after 8 years his path is doomed as well. Not his fault he stayed more healthy!!……………Oliva is my 4th guy!

He made $6 million last year and had a 2.80 ERA……pretty sure that’s what his agent is telling our FO! He’s gotta be at $4.5 - $5.0 million minimum. Like his experience!!!! Not his first rodeo. We have 3 outs to get in the 8th with 2 of 3 guys being LH hitters OR even 1 of the 3 guys being a LH hitter. Pick one: Pagan - Hand - López?? Come on - sign him!

Julian or Lee will get dropped in at 3B before Gordon. Lots of durability between Miranda & Farmer. Gordon is officially an Outfielder unless there’s an in-game emergency.

Interesting overview. Pitching makes perfect sense to me. Everyday guys. Here we go again……. Gordon played 6% of last year’s games in IF……..only because we were out of bodies and he was still standing. He started 60% of the games in OF ……40% in LF & 20% in CF. (I see it growing to 50% in LF & 30% in CF in ‘23) Don’t see how a guy has BA that’s 3rd or 4th on roster in ‘22 & has 28 doubles in 405 AB’s …..plays OF in first real full season in SHOW …..starts 2/3 of games on schedule & is slated as our 6th infielder in ‘23? 1B is Kirilof/Miranda/Gallo Farmer will play 30 games v. LH pitching at 3B, while Miranda moves to 1B. When Miranda - CC - Polanco rest, that’s another 25 starts each IF everyone stays healthy. I can’t believe that FO would expect Taylor to play CF in front of Gordon v. RH pitching! Taylor is an INSURANCE policy against major health issues. He’s the CF v. LH pitching while Buxton DH’s…..30 games. Buxton tries to start 80 games in CF. Gordon starts 50 games in CF. Taylor pinch hits v. LH pitching - pinch runs - late inning Defense as needed. A true utility player! Larnach is DH - some LF. Gallo is some LF 30 games…..RF 50 games…….1B 20 games…….DH 15-20 games. Kepler is 110 games in RF. Everyone plays 110 - 135 games except Taylor & Jeffers…..maybe 75 games & 55 games respectively.

Could piggyback the 5th/6th starters. Ober goes on 5th turn ……..18-20 batters so guys aren’t seeing him 3 times. 4-5 innings. Maeda comes in and throws essentially, the balance of the game. Can choose to bring a BP arm in during a middle inning change & let Maeda start next inning fresh. Always an opportunity to throw closer in 9th. Still saves 6 BP arms on that night. Worth considering since if the piggyback got some rhythm (success), the innings thrown for both guys, work for the whole season. (30 starts at 4 innings)

Exactly!………… Get some innings in and keep the trajectory positive. Get 1/2 season minimum at AA. Maybe starts ‘24 in AA if there’s stuff to work on but 50% of the year at AAA would be great. Hopefully, they both continue to advance!

Pitching Staff out of Spring Training: Mahle - López - Ryan - Gray - Ober Use Ober’s healthy innings in Mpls. instead of St Paul early in the season. Get Maeda ready and stretched out from the Pen, throwing 1.3 - 2.0 innings at a time a couple times per week. Then 3-4 starts in July if it’s best to move him from Pen. He could stay in Pen if everyone is happy with his effectiveness. Winder/Varland/ SWR are all options for August & September. Maeda - Duran - Jax - Moran - Thielbar - Megill - FA…Moore/Hand - J. López Alcala - Winder - in the wings…….Pagan drops in for the Moore/Hand spot if we don’t sign anyone.

“Please….. “ correct!! ……..all I have to say is Nick Gordon, last roster spot - Seriously?? Did anyone watch the 2022 season? Played OF for first time in his career in ‘22. Gained 25 lbs & healthy (solved intestinal issue) for first time in his pro career in ‘22. Started 20% of games in CF. 40% of games in LF……..good speed - decent arm - needs reps/experience. Gordon is now an outfielder unless there’s an emergency injury. Farmer is an infielder already slated to start 105-110 games at 3B - SS - 2B. 405 AB’s - 28 doubles! .272 BA - 50 RBI batting 6th or lower in line-up Also, played games at 2B when we had no other choice. HEALTHY & getting stronger! We (fans) think he’s our 2nd best outfielder in ‘22 but when we factor in “availability” he may be considered our best. #2 going forward. 2023: 80 games in LF - 50 games in CF ……ALL against RH pitching. 130 starts projects to 550 AB’s……similar BA of .270 against all RH pitching - 70 RBI - 38 doubles - 12 HR……..26th roster spot because we can’t send him to St Paul anymore???? Taylor can’t play in front of Gordon in CF v. RH pitching! Way too big of an offensive hit to take. Taylor is around to start against 30 LH pitchers - to pinch hit - to pinch run - to play OF in late innings as needed. INSURANCE if something goes sideways with health. Larnach needs to be healthy & rip the cover off the ball in Spring Training to nab the 26th spot……in my opinion. Hope it happens!

Julien sounds like a truly valuable prospect. However, with Lee - Lewis - Martin coming hard in 2023 or ‘24, it seems that his only path to the majors is through 1B. If he can’t beat out Kirilof at 1B or Larnach at DH, there’s little chance they will have a spot for him medium - Long term.

Hope for his sake he holds up again this year!! Nice story & glad he got some pay-off! He’s a big piece for our Pen in ‘23

Go back to the mid-60’s over 4-5 differing years with that staff and add Dave Boswell - Dean Chance - & HOF Jim Kaat. We have not had this much starting depth/talent that I can recall since. Santana & Liriano (prior to injury) with maybe Radke? Not 5 guys. We don’t have the Viola or Santana or Blyleven on this staff but we have 4-5 Scott Erickson’s.

I’d really like Ober to be our 5th starter through June-July. Use his healthy innings in the SHOW & not St Paul…………transitioning to one of Varland/SWR/Maeda. Maeda in the Pen for first half works him back slowly and gives us a key middle innings, long guy, a couple times per week. Matt Moore is out there & so is Brad Hand……one FA pick up please. Maeda - Moore - Megill - Moran - Jax - López - Thielbar - Duran………good mix of veterans & youth……….good mix of right & left. Alcala & a couple others in St. Paul Move Pagán by end of Spring Training.