PatPfund

I guess you can repeat "interesting take" as much as you want, but the timeline is pretty public (the Twins acquire Kiner-Falefa; the Yankees contact the Twins about him immediately and eat Donaldson's money to get him, all on the weekend; the Twins are linked in Story rumors right away, because they now have payroll and need a shortstop; Boras sees the situation and contacts the Twins; the two sides work out a deal and Correa agrees mid-week). We weren't "trying" to dump JD's contract, we had done so before any Correa contact. Boras only made contact, because the Twins had freed up the money and entered the top-level SS market. So he didn't fall into our laps, the Twins took active steps to enter the premium SS market, and they got one. Not even my take. https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-correa-road-to-signing-with-twins

Well. A few things. It's August, and one of the worst teams (the Twins) in the AL last year, a team whose season was already done at this point in 2021 is one of the better teams this year, and is in first place in the division (and has been most of the year). That's a win, not a fail. Nobody seems to remember that most of the offseason was wasted in the stupid lockout. Our front office, and the rest of MLB's did nothing for months, because they couldn't. Once the stupid lockout ended, no team was more active than the Twins, acquiring the best pitcher in our rotation, inking another who has probably made more starts than any other SP (though really Archer is more of an Opener), churning the closing spot to add an SP and RP, churning the catcher spot to land a SS, then churning the top of the payroll and acquiring arguably the top shortstop in baseball. So definitively NOT planning to fail. Or failing to plan since they had deals ready to roll ASAP. Can we just stop with the 'Correa fell in our laps' stuff? It just isn't true. The Twins used the Yankee interest in our new shortstop to dump Josh Donaldson's salary AND vacate the SS position precisely to jump into the top of the free agent SS market. Yep, they were targeting Story, but the ONLY reason Boras contacted the Twins is they had already done the work to make a deal with Carlos feasible. Without that work, Boras does not call, and if he did the Twins wouldn't have been able to afford him, and Correa is playing elsewhere. On the other hand, their pitching plans failed. Bundy pitches with more guts than Happ or Matty Shoe, but not really any more talent. Hard to say how much of last offseason's original plan was shredded by the stupid lockout, but if the Falvines haven't figured out to stop building around washed up castoff arms next year could register in the Fail category. But maybe we should enjoy this year, and not freak about next year until... next year?

The question of whether or not this is a team you push in a lot of 'future' chips to fix now is the key question. I think this past week has actually made it clearer; there is too much to fix with 'big' moves, and our ability to make both big and medium moves has been damaged. Winder's injury both takes out a possible #3-#4 starter, and/or a potent trade chip. Sano's trade value really is now zero. Kirilloff has both lost his trade value, and put giant question marks over his ability to cover the production hole that would open if you traded Miranda. Archer is regressing after moving from competent Opener to borderline starter, to hip issue, to weak Opener. Ryan is either in a doldrum, or scouts have figured out how to time his deceptive but not very fast fastball. Our pitching coach praised by our pitchers, quit mid-season. I still think we can win the division making minimal moves (crappy week, and still in first; three flawed teams duking it out). I also like our young core, and the way Palacios is hitting in St Paul (since he might be the critical SS bridge to Lewis next year). Winning in the playoffs, though, looks like it would now take two SPs (and one would have to be Gray-level or better), and probably a #4 type to replace Winder. Plus a couple RPs (one back end worthy). At inflated trade deadline prices, that is more that we can afford (maybe more than we even have). So I'd see if we could find an SP for something reasonable (Eovaldi from Boston?), and a Romo type reliever for cheap, and not trade Miranda or too many top prospects. Win the division, see if magic strikes in the playoffs, and build for next year with more reasonable offseason prices. (And hopefully take the lesson that being "in" on Rodon counts for nothing if you are then shipping big prospects to get him mid-year, when a bit more money could have had him months earlier.)

Truly awful. One of the most amazing things about the 8-5 triple play the Twins had against the White Sox is that for a change, the other team was stupider on the bases than the home nine. (I know it will never happen for several reasons, but it's too bad Molitor couldn't do some base-running drills in Spring Training. This team's running skills are so consistently bad it clearly gets back to coaching fundamentals, or the lack thereof.)

From someone who went all rant on your last piece, I really liked this. Good data, and effectively presented (reinforcing some general impressions I had, but the Jeffers graph in particular caught my attention. Longer upswing than I was giving him credit for.

What's crazy is people hyper-ventilating about the Rule 5 draft in July. The front office is savvy enough to figure it out, and no we won't be able to protect any player who might have a future MLB career, and no we don't have to, and no we shouldn't be basing any mid-season trade priorities on a 40-man "crunch". Trade to help the team; if that involves a front-line pitcher, then a few to several of these "crunch" pieces will be gone. (Miranda? Steer? Wallner? Canterino? SWR? All of them? You are not going to get a game-changing piece by trading table scraps.) And take a deep breath. The Twins minor league system is rated around 15th. Rule 5 players need to stay on the drafting team's roster the whole of the next season or be offered back. Unless he turns it around, is anybody thinking Sawyer Gibson-Long is MLB ready next year? Several mentioned CAN be exposed and probably won't get drafted the same way nobody claimed Smeltzer off waivers at the end of spring training. And yeah, I would not offer arbitration to any of Cotton/Coulombe/Romero/Garlick. They are interchangeable parts in MLB. If the Twins can't do better, then they won't BE better next year. And yeah, I get how a roster works. The point is, this is only a crisis if you try to manipulate things in-season. If you wait until after the season, it is simply the roster churn that happens every year. And after the season, many items now shifting all over the place will have set in place. (Ex: we'll actually know if SGL recovers enough to need protection rather than guessing 'what if'.)

@Major League Ready Say you need (well, want) 10 spots. At the end of the season, the contracts of Urshela, Sanchez, Thielbar, Duffey, Joe Smith, Garlick, Bundy, Cotton, and Coulombe expire. The Twins are HIGHLY unlikely to pick up Sano's option. So all of these are no longer on the 40-man unless/until resigned. You don't resign Urshela unless you trade Miranda (and Steer). It's possible they pitch a deal to Sanchez early depending on their catching plans. The rest are arms in one of the worst bullpens in the AL and Bundy. There is zero incentive to lock those slots down. So there are 8 spots assuming you sign Sanchez. Unless Dobnak shows he can pitch, they should waive him (but they'd have to eat money, so maybe not yet). They can remove Romero, though, so nine. Cano, Archer, Godoy, Strotman, and maybe Sands should prove more value, or they could be removed as well. Frankly Archer is going backward; unless he is open to a 'pen move, I don't want him back. Thats five more slots, so 14 total slots on the 40 man opened up. Finally, you do need to take some risks; if you fill your 40-man with players who are not MLB-ready next year, you limit your in-season moves. Rule 5 draftees are only lost if they can't stick on the drafting team's 40-man all next year. If you put marginal talent on the 40-man, you might lose them forever next spring when injuries mean you have to expose them to waivers. The Twins system is not highly rated, so take some chances (we get to pick, too). Trade if it helps, don't if you are just dumping prospects for middle-level RPs.

All of the players mentioned in the OP are viable trade assets of varying value. Sure, trade them if that helps the team (especially in getting a top arm), but there really is no "crunch", so don't trade now just to trade, or trade to fix a problem that doesn't exist yet. (We can also deal in a more measured atmosphere after the season and before the Rule 5 draft if needed.) When Mr Froemming posted a video on this topic (and I highly recommend his YouTube channel TFTwins), I looked at the 40-man including the 60-day IL, and identified something like 18 players who are likely to leave (like Correa), have their contracts run out (lots and lots of those, and they drop off the 40 immediately after the season), need to step up their games to prove they need protecting (like Strotman, Sands or Dobnak), or are just unlikely to be picked (like Stashak or Coulombe). It's worth keeping in mind that right now, the Twins farm system isn't considered elite, and maybe not even top half. We love and see the potential in many of these players, but it is far likelier that teams gamble their roster spots on higher rated prospects from another system. We can protect most of the elites, and the rest is part of player movement. (We'll have a chance to pick up players as well.)

Time to bury the Sano/Ortiz connection forever. The Twins have stuck with Sano longer by two seasons now than they did with Ortiz, and Sano is NEVER going to be Ortiz. (In Sano's age 29 season, he has never had even 80 RBI in a season, in Ortiz's age 29 season, he was on his way to hitting 47 HR, and a career high 147 RBI, the third of 5 straight seasons over 100.) And that's okay. All he needs to be is a healthy, engaged Miguel Sano to possibly provide a spark for an offense that gets shut out A LOT. If it doesn't work, move on.

Bard would be a good and affordable pickup. I'm hoping, though, that a front-line starter is added as well, pushing someone decent out of the rotation and into the 'pen. The thought of Thielbar pitching high-leverage playoff situations (he just injured himself while finally getting his ERA under 5 for the first time since April) makes me weep in advance.

I'm not totally against an Urshela trade since I'm not seeing him back next year (unless Miranda is involved in a Montas/Castillo/?-SP trade), but... ...the "obvious" move is to simply option Celestino to StP. He has options, has plateaued, and could play every day for the Saints. Kirilloff becomes the regular LF, Sano is 1B/DH, Arraez is 1B/DH/2B, Miranda is 3B/DH, Urshela is 3B. Byron actually rests most days when not in the field (last I heard batting caused more pain that fielding). Gordon comes off the bench. Catchers probably almost never DH. Also, if (after mashing on rehab) Sano comes in swinging well, he easily has trade value. Lower than most points, but any contending team in need of a power bat would probably cough up a decent relief arm to get Sano. (Though frankly, if he's hitting, I think the Twins ride out the season with him, and I'd be okay with that even if I know he'll drive me nuts several times in the next few months.)

Well, I was alive and following the Twins in both '87 and '91. Nobody considered the '87 team a massive threat to take it all, especially when they clinched, then ended the year on a losing streak. But you are 100% wrong about '91. It was a very good team, a team with a better record than the favored Blue Jays. Here is a sentence from the Wikipedia entry on the '91 ALCS: "Newspapers were predicting a series of tense and close contests in the following ALCS, as the Twins seemed to have the slightly stronger team, but the Blue Jays had won the season series between the two teams 8-4." So hardly the "snowball's chance" of your memory. Your point about the Twins making off season moves doesn't really fit here, since we are talking trade deadline moves, not offseason where the prices are more reasonable. (Who ever said a team should make no moves in the off-season? Certainly not me.) Maybe you consider Sal, Joe, and the body of Steve Carlton to be of significance; I don't (though the Niekro nail file incident was hilarious). And your last sentence makes my point exactly. I'm not calling them cowards, but ironically applying your 'no moves means you live in fear' standard. My original point (maybe obscured in all the back and forth) is that we shouldn't make moves just to make moves. That is how the Cubs ended up giving $70 million to a solid, but health challenged pitcher like Stroman (just because you pay for an ace doesn't add talent to the signee). And helped wreck their team (along with other 'all in' moves). I'm all over this site in advocating for acquiring a #1-#2 starter, and paying for it (no, Mahle doesn't meet that standard, but a healthy Montas or Castillo would, and so would others). If we can't make a trade like that, I'm for holding on to prospects, and making stronger moves in the offseason (we'll likely have Correa's salary to play with), and come back better next year.

You probably should check up on Twins history. The '87 Twins were middling all right (85-77). And the only significant move the Twins made was to add Don Baylor for a low prospect (player to be named later, the famous Enrique Rios). Totally gutless inactivity driven by fear no doubt! The '91 Twins were NOT middling; they had the MLB's longest win streak (15 games, which you can see ending in A Few Good Men, damn that movie!), and finished 28 games over .500. They also lived in even more fear than the '87 Twins, because they made no trade deadline moves of significance. Cowards!

FYI, after tonight, Duffey's ERA (3.86) is pretty close to that of Taylor Rogers (3.72).

Option 1 is the only option. The Twins are in first, the market is dubious at best (if even possible by contract), and the Twins are in first. And in case I missed it, the Twins are in first. One of the most foolish things I've heard is that if Correa walks, we get nothing. Wrong. We get what we paid for, a chance to be competitive. The Twins are in first. We also get a championship player working with a lot of our up and coming players teaching and showing them how to be MLB players (just ask Miranda and Lewis). If we make the playoffs (likely even if we make no moves), we'll have a champion shortstop showing our historically bad post-season team how to prepare and play in that charged atmosphere. Which is worth far more than anything we could possibly get from a trade. Which would be foolish anyway, because the Twins are in first.

I don't get the Laureano talk (almost twice as valuable as Montas is goofy, especially for a 28 y.o. player who has played more 90 games once in his career, and whose best stats were back before he got caught cheating with PEDs, but I don't really care since...) ...We don't need to pay prospects to get another outfielder. We also shouldn't even be thinking Montas until he shows after 2-3 starts he can help us THIS year. If he can't, and we aren't sure about next year, then I'd top my offer at Drew Strotman (and be fine if/when the A's sucker somebody else).

Agreed, but that isn't the same as 'you have to go all-in every time you have a pair of jacks.' Look, I"m enjoying this year as a great rebound from last year's terrible Twins. But I'm also not blind. This is a solidly middle AL team. There isn't one Twins starting pitcher I'd put in the AL top 20. The 'pen is dreadful. The hitting is statistically great, but they also get shutout more than pretty much everyone. Fielding zooms from the sublime to the stupefying. We're lucky if the catchers throw out two base-stealers in a month. Our base-running is often a travesty. (My favorite part of the Twins' 8-5 triple play recently was that for once, we weren't the team running around like deranged Little Leaguers.) We are not a player away from winning it all, but we do show signs of being good with a better future (assuming we don't throw it all away, like... you know, the Cubs). This team, with full years from Maeda, Winder, Miranda, Larnach, and Kirilloff; and majority years from Paddach and Lewis should be much better even with Correa gone. I'm looking forward to seeing that team just as much as I am watching the rest of this year play out. Additions or no. Plus, if you are taking "shots" because you are afraid someone will think you are 'operating from a position of fear', then that is exactly what you ARE doing.

Eek. Where the Cubs want to be is both instructional, and a warning for the local nine. Robertson should be a target of interest, but this club also could have signed him last offseason, and if they send a good prospect, they'll essentially be giving up a good prospect, and likely a pitching prospect for 20-ish innings. So maybe this offseason, consider signing a Robertson or two at moderate pay to establish a floor under a recently terrible 'pen. (And if the Twins are terrible, you can flip them.) Stroman should be the Rip Van Winkle of sleeper prospects. Awful contract, and a damaged arm (that honestly was good, but not great when healthy). Stroman was part of the Cubs going 'all in', and they are now bust. A purely cautionary tale for the fanbase (and hopefully the Twins) about committing all of your assets for years, because you won a few games in a row. Best bet for the Twins is to look to teams with a deeper pitching inventory so they are trading position players (and prospects) for a very few arms. (Or heaven forbid, admit our team is improving, but not quite to championship level, and stand pat.) Yes, it is tougher, but as the Cruz trade showed last year, positions-for-arms can be done; if we get hooked on sending out our pitching future for 'all in' desperation plays, we won't be long in returning to where the Cubs now dwell.

At least it's ballpark (if Castillo is healthy). Though I'd look for a prospect position player to move instead of Winder, because the "pitching pipeline" has an air bubble in it (with very dubious Saints starting prospects not name Winder), and your Gray/Castillo 1 and 2 could be gone after next year.

From Baseball-Reference: Mahle, 2022: 1.8 WAR, 3W, 7L, 4.48 ERA, 92.1 IP, 102 K, 1.300 WHIP Ober, 2022: 0.1 WAR, 1W, 2L, 4.01 ERA, 33.2 IP, 29 K, 1.277 WHIP Winder, 2022: 0.5 WAR, 4W, 3L, 3.77 ERA, 45.1 IP, 29 K, 1.235 WHIP I'm not trying to say Mahle overall might not be a better pitcher than the two already in the Twins' system, but this year, Ks aside, I'd rather have Winder starting than Mahle. Ober also is in the same ballpark as Mahle. Mahle definitely helps because adding him would move one of the others to a weak bullpen, but Mahle is a #3, and unless he both is totally healthy, and thrives on the venue change (which could NOT happen as easily as it could), adding him doesn't likely move the needle much on winning a playoff series. Certainly not to be shipping top prospects for. (Sometimes the trades you don't make...) I'd love to see a big move involving top prospects for a #1-#2 starter (like Castillo or Montas if healthy), but otherwise, I'd like to keep our prospects for either development or offseason moves made with cooler heads at real prices. And just enjoy the recovery season by the Twins for what it is; a step in the right direction from being a bad division bottom feeder. Trade some AAAA players or a hot Sano for some middle bullpen help, but no reliever I've seen on the market is worth a top prospect, and without a #1-#2 SP, relievers are unlikely to make a difference in the playoffs.

If you want to trade Sano, he has to play in the majors. And as much as it pains me to say it, there is no obstacle to calling him up, because the offense is flagging. If there are no injuries in the meantime, it would be pretty easy to option out Celestino (whose batting average has shed about 70 points from its height, and who hits for zero power, pitiful RBI, and as we saw last week, can't even lay down a bunt). Gilberto should probably be playing every day in St Paul. With Jeffers out and Sanchez catching most games you have DH spots available, and can shift others around to various spots since they play various spots. I'd rather not see him, but it is also foolish to assume there is no trade value, especially if he comes up and whomps a few. No, you won't get Montas or Castillo, but some contending team with more stable pitching could throw a mid-grade reliever out there for a chance at a power boost. Don't forget the Twins got Ryan and Strotman for a power bat rental last year, and the Braves won the Series behind a batch of reclamation/cheap-pickups like Rosario and Soler. But the value is and will remain near zero as long as Sano is in the minors, so putting off a call up just increases the chances we are stuck with him for the rest of the year.

Curious to hear about those starters that keep us in the game through 5, because we've been down and into the 'pen by the 4th A LOT lately. (The least talented of the bunch is Bundy, and he is the one pitching with the most guts lately.) This team needs a top starter to compete in the playoffs, we don't need anything to compete for a division title and early exit. Winder is currently your third best starter on the MLB team (even if he IS in the minors), and if you trade him for another #3 along with some top prospects, that is a staight lose-lose. And FYI, don't sweat the 40-man until post-season. I just looked at it, and between players who are leaving (like Correa) and players whose contracts will be up, and players not good enough to sweat getting taken, and players you wish would get taken, I count 18 players on the 40-man the Twins could skip protecting right now. That should clear plenty of space for those who will need protection come December.

I'd understand this problem more if the Twins were loaded at starting pitcher. But they are not. Right now, Josh Winder is the third best starter on this team, and if Ryan doesn't snap out of it pretty soon, then Winder will be the second best starter on this team. A team with marginal starting pitching shouldn't be debating moving a guy with the starting stats quoted in the OP to the freakin' pen or AAA. He should be in the rotation until the numbers regress, or you start skipping spots to limit his innings. As for the Bundy/Archer/Ober/Smeltzer problems this creates? Tough. It's baseball, and you tell them all if they want to be in the rotation, then pitch better than Winder. (Love the Archer potential, but his surgically repaired hip isn't holding up even with restricted use? That's bad. Give him some rope and time, but if he can't stay healthy, and won't accept a 'pen role, then you let him go. Same with Bundy, though he intrigues me more as a bullpen arm; love his character even if he's looking threadbare in the rotation. And, yeah, I totally could see him starting a playoff game. Say against Tampa who has already been wiped out by Winder. Though I'd rather see him start Game 4 after Castillo/Montas/OtherReallyGoodPitcher, Gray, and Ryan.

The OP looks spot on. Duffey has looked much better these last few weeks. I remember him saying they were working on a new mix, and I internally scoffed, but it's working to get him serviceable again, and in this 'pen, that's gold. Now, can it hold!?

I'll take Chapman as the exception that proves the rule. The Cubs had one of the best teams in baseball with a World Series winning manager already in place, but were missing that one piece. The Yankees were willing since they weren't winning it that year, and they had the relationship to get Chapman right back in free agency. Chapman was the most dominating arm in the game. So if you want to name the most dominating reliever in baseball, and you think we are only one piece away from winning it all (which I know isn't true from your posts including the one quoted), and you believe we have a post-season wizard managing the Twins (which I also suspect might not be true), then, yeah. Send a top prospect to make your championship team even better. But I have seen nobody name an arm dominating the game the way Chapman did, I think our manager is okay, but not great, I would say we are a decent team, but not a great one, and I don't think our rotation is anything more than solid; certainly not good enough to average 5 innings per start against a mediocre Texas team, let alone playoff competition. So sending top prospects for a reliever is goofy IMO. At all times, but especially for this team.