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PatPfund

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  1. PatPfund
    You can see both of E-S's HRs on video in the article above; 1st was center at the knees, the second more center-center. As I remember from the first HR, the pitchers for the Sky Carp were struggling with control to an extent that had already cost them the lead, and filled the bases, so I'm guessing there wasn't the confidence/ability/instructions needed to tempt E-S at the edges. The second might have been a mistake, or a 'it's cold and we're down 5; throw strikes and let your defense play and move the game along.'
  2. PatPfund
    Amen, brother! Another MiLB bonus is the effort to pick up the pace of the game. Not sure about all of them, but the pace is definitely faster (which helps the spectating as much as it notoriously helps keep the defenders in the game).
  3. PatPfund
    Opposite going on in Louisville. A borderline pitch was called a strike, and the Louisville broadcast crew (on a bitterly cold night) openly speculated that anything close was going to get called to move the game, and the batters should be ready to swing. (And they were probably right. Looked like about 10 fans left at the park around the 6th inning.)
  4. PatPfund
    Great article! Since I lost my avenue for watching Twins games live (my old ISP's server was in Chicago, so MLB.tv blacked out the ChiSox/Cubs, and treated Twins as out-of-market; an unintended bonus for me until they disconnected this area), I plunked my MLB.tv money into Twins Daily, The Athletic, and an annual subscription to MiLB.tv. ($50). I'll be "watching" the Twins on radio (which is fine; I'm old so I'm used to the medium), but I'm getting way more bang for my buck! Had a gas scrolling between the Saints and Kernels last night with an added benefit being there were often no commercials between innings, and no black screen announcing a commercial was in progress. Instead you get to watch (soundless, alas) some of the 'tween innings hijinx put on in the minors. So much fun; a great chance to see the Twins up-and-comers (including that monster Cave!!! who is that guy?!?!?!?!), and visual to add context to these excellent Minor League reports.
  5. PatPfund
    Nice recap! As a local transit driver, I can also add that whatever festivities the Twins had on in the early morning had cars backed up from Target Field's plaza on 7th all the way back to near Hennepin even though there was still snow on the ground. (While a brief pain to work around, it was heart-warming to see all those fans fired up at 6 a.m.!)
  6. PatPfund
    I predict... Many will over-react to whatever happens on Opening Day and Opening Weekend. There will be moments of glory and despair. Someone will get hurt. The Dodgers and Blue Jays will be fabulous, and one will win it all... ...unless they don't. Game play will be so much better than anything we can predict. I'll be following it all on Twins Daily; thanks to the founders and all the posters (including any that rip me; taking a beating is part of the game) for such a great site. Glad I found you all!
  7. PatPfund
    And I'm sure most of us would be happier if Rogers and Rooker had gone to the Dodgers for Walker Buehler. But that's not how it always works, especially for a mid-market team. It sounds like the fans were always higher on Manaea than the Twins; it's a stretch referring to him as "high-end" (though compared to the Twins staff last year...), and he is an FA after the year. Montas is higher end for sure, and since the A's haven't been able to deal him (to the Twins or the rest of MLB), they probably are asking too much. Sometimes you have to roll with what you can get, and since this is baseball, you can often win with that. Or not win it all after getting one of the best pitchers in baseball (like the Yankees who haven't even won their division with Gerrit Cole). At any rate, the die is cast.
  8. PatPfund
    I'm pretty sure we didn't go from "OMG, need another SP!" to "there is no place for a new SP to pitch on this team" in the last week. No starter is fully stretched out yet; Gray has only faced MLB hitters once (though he did mow them down like grass). Given the 16 slots available, it seems like the Twins could easily structure a rotation with a starter (4 innings or X pitches), and a follow-up "middler" (3 innings or X pitches) much like they'd do in spring training. The actual name 'starter' wouldn't really matter the first couple times through, and by then results could dictate the 'final' starting five. ('Final' of course meaning until injury/bad-pitching brought change. So maybe as soon as a week from now.)
  9. PatPfund
    I consider Urshela an upgrade over JD. Speaking of angles of attack, JD swung a potent bat on deteriorating pins that hobbled him badly outside the batter's box (watching him run was painful), and probably means a downward path on defense (when he can even take the field). The salary difference is especially key since it meant they could sign a top shortstop (and in the end, THE top FA SS). Let me see... which would I rather have... Urshela/Correa or JD/Simmons?
  10. PatPfund
    I feel pretty good about this group, though my biggest concerns have to do with some of the supposed 'front line.' As you said, Duffey started popping red flags last year, Thielbar was outstanding in 2020, but more of just okay last year (though he looked great in comparison to some of his 'pen mates), and Joe Smith had one of his worst years as a pro and is pretty old. I'm hoping the leashes are pretty short, because the second line looks better than some of the first.
  11. PatPfund
    Good piece covering the biggest ??? position on the team (though pretty big 'Q's still remain at corner OF and C). We can all guess, but only real games now can tell the tale on the retreads Archer and Bundy. I feel somewhat better about them than Happ/MattyShoe, because there still seems to be some power in their arms, but... well, we just need to see. I'm still mildly optimistic, but as you say, if it doesn't work there isn't a place for the Falvines to hide.
  12. PatPfund
    Great summary! I'm fine with where they are. I'm also optimistic about the team, though I guess that is a relative term since (like mikelink45) I see something around .500 this year. (But something around .500 is much better than last year, so...) You are probably closer to the actual decisions, but I'd still like to see DFAs for Stashak and Thielbar (rather than Rooker) to add Garlick (or somebody else who can play OF, can hit and is DFA'd elsewhere), and start with Moran in Mpls instead of St Paul. The need for a real OF option grows if Kirilloff's knee-tweak today limits his outfield play.
  13. PatPfund
    Good article, and catcher is definitely key to success this year. Not just Jeffers who needs to progress as a hitter, but Sanchez, who I think the Twins believe in. Taking them at their word (which probably is not just spin this time), I'd expect something like a 2 (Jeffers) to 1 (Sanchez) split with the majority of Sanchez's at-bats coming at C. (I also believe the Twins mean it right now that DH will rotate to give people not in the field that day some extra ABs; sure Sanchez gets swings, but so do the others on the bench depending on matchup and production.) Have no idea how it will play out, but I guess that is the joy of this week; we start to find out for real!
  14. PatPfund
    There is zero reason to keep a non-roster pitcher; the 40-man is chock full of viable arms. You can argue the non-roster people might be marginally better in a couple cases, but you aren't cutting someone over the difference. The non-roster pitchers go to St Paul as depth in case of injuries, antiques that blow up, or to be added after a prospect trade. However, there is one or two non-roster bats to be added (only 13 rostered hitters remain in camp; one is Godoy, another is Rooker). There is no reason to need for 3 catchers on the game roster, but you do need to have the third on the MLB roster in case they are needed immediately, so I don't think Godoy is DFA'd, though I see him in St Paul. Rooker seems more likely to start the year on the DL than in the majors. I'd add Garlick as the most viable bat, and Robertson as the next most viable. (And DFA Stashak and Thielbar.) If Godoy is up and Rooker healthy, you probably just go with the rostered peeps until somebody plays themselves off the team (or gets hurt, in which case the best alternative is probably a rostered player in the minors).
  15. PatPfund
    As a former vict... er, um host of Extreme Pelfrey Fever, I believe in Chris!!!!
  16. PatPfund
    Well nobody really knows, but for the sake of the question, B-? The part of many reactions that cracks me up (darkly) is the general faith of 'we've got a great lineup'. The reality is we haven't had a great lineup since 2019; they underperformed the next year (and pitching carried us to the playoffs), and the hitting was terrible last year with equally weak pitching. I think the FO has upgraded things to the point of a season around .500, and a chance for the edge of the expanded playoff field, which is a big step up from last year. Our expensive FA is vastly superior to last year's model, and Correa is a massive upgrade as SS as well. Urshela gets ripped a lot around here, but he is a straight upgrade over JD (less but not insignificant bat, and far better defensively since no matter how good you used to be, you can't defend third very well if you have problems walking across the clubhouse). I'm also glad they didn't toss massive money at a starting pitcher; that doesn't often work out well, and frankly the foundation isn't good enough for the 'one that will put us over the top' approach. Sometimes the moves you don't make are the best. On the downside, the catching is FAR worse, and they got a bit handcuffed by the lockout lasting so long. And if Bundy/Archer start to resemble Happ/Matty the Shoe, or they release Canterino to add Cave to the 40 man Twins fans will be right there to drench them with Hatorade.
  17. PatPfund
    Kenny was just Dependable in my days; his new-fangled Sodbuster name was a hit, though! I think you are right about Godaski being Scrappy, which probably meant that he and Kenny were fodder for the headliners to work over on TV.
  18. PatPfund
    I’m going 13 hitters, 15 pitchers. Send down Godoy, Rooker, Cave; add Robertson and Garlick to the 40 man roster, and you have 13. (Jeffers, Sanchez, Sano, Polanco, Correa, Urshela, Arraez, Gordon, Robertson, Kirilloff, Buxton, Kepler, Garlick.) (Please, Rocco. Never DH Jeffers or Sanchez until they are hitting over .225. Then you don’t waste a roster spot on a third horrible bat.) For pitchers, you have Gray, Ober, Ryan, Bundy, and Archer in the rotation for five. You send down all the non-rosters as depth for failures/injuries. You DFA Stashak and Thielbar to make room for adding the position players above, sending the two down if they clear waivers. Cotton, Winder, and Jax can go long; Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, Smith, Duran, Moran, and Romero can go short. One reliever of the short group needs to go; I’d let the last week of camp decide that. (I’d probably ship Romero if I had to pick today, but mostly because I know least about him; can’t remember if Jax has options, but if he does, maybe he’d be the guy.)
  19. PatPfund
    Duran has blown people away this spring, and I'd guess he'll be bullpen this year to limit his innings. Love Thielbar's guts, but 3.00 era, 35, and near retirement sounds more like "the Dependable Kenny Jay" than "the Crusher" (to date myself with ancient All Star Wrestling references).
  20. PatPfund
    The Twins have 40 man roster issues that will likely dictate who makes the Opening Day team. (Any non-roster player making the team displaces a 40 man player.) From a quick hand count, it looks like 23 of the “active” 40 men are pitchers, and this is where I think you find the slack for adding non-roster players. Enlow could possibly go to the 60 DL. Thielbar, Stashak, and Jax are all guys who have given the Twins gutsy innings when they desperately needed them, but I also think they’d have a decent chance of clearing waivers if exposed, and wouldn’t break the team if claimed. But I also think that raises the bar on non-roster pitchers going north. The Opening Day pitchers should come strictly from the 40 man with non-roster guys being depth for the time reclamation projects pitch themselves off the team, or injury opens a slot. There is little slack on the position side. There are three catchers, and at least two of the three are on the MLB team. Maybe all three. Of the 8 infielders, Arraez, Correa, Polanco, Sano, and Urshela are MLB locks; Lewis and Miranda are not being waived, and the last person is Gordon who is out of options, has speed, defensive flexibility, and frankly was the only rookie last year to give the Twins sustained competitive at-bats last year. I think he goes north (and would be claimed in a heartbeat if put on waivers). Of the OFs on the 40-man, Buxton, Kepler, and Kirilloff are locks, Larnach has already been re-assigned, and Rooker has been injured (and struck out in half his limited spring ABs without a hit). He needs to go down, get healthy, and start hitting. The fifth is Celestino, who has the defensive chops to play in the majors, and after being overmatched after his AA call up, looked good in St Paul, and has hit well this spring. I could see him going north, but I also could see him getting more ABs at AAA with a non-roster or two being added as a 4th outfielder (through Gordon is some of that as well). Depends on the club’s feelings about exposing some pitchers.
  21. PatPfund
    I mostly agree with the roster, and totally agree on the two catchers thing. Pretty sure Sanchez is going to catch a lot more than Twins fans want. Third catcher to cover a partial game of DH doesn’t make sense (unless it’s an Astudillo type who can play elsewhere). Agree, though, with several commenters that Rooker doesn’t belong here, especially with his limited play due to injury. Need another infielder? DFA one of the marginal pitchers on the 40 man (Stashak? Romero? Bet both would clear waivers, wouldn’t cry if they didn’t), and let Beckham have a crack at the roster. He’s likely a better hitter than half the position players, and the Twins would have three overall top picks. Serious question; how is a guy limited by health to 19 innings last year going ramp up to rotation fitness in 10-14 days? I don’t think he does, so Archer is actually a bullpen arm to start, though maybe in an opener guise. Either way, (and assuming he doesn’t melt down in the next couple weeks) Winder should start on the MLB roster at least as long as it is expanded; maybe as Follower to Archer's Opener. I’d be fine booting Stashak, Moran, or Romero to the minors. Actually make it at least two of them, because Duran has been dominant, and like Winder he can go multiple innings, which will be huge the first few weeks.
  22. PatPfund
    My dream is that Larnach, and Kirilloff both step forward, and the FO stuns Twins-world again by shipping Sano, Sanchez, Rooker, and a prospect pitcher to Cleveland for Shane Bieber. (Though I guess Sanchez OR Sano could stay if the other is gone.)
  23. PatPfund
    Well, A, these are projected stats, and Max has been disappointing projections since 2019. But B. these projections essentially make my point. Max isn't 4th here because he dominates, he is 4th, because nobody else stands out (Kirilloff is meh, and Larnach/Rooker repeat last year). In which case Kepler should be a regular, and the Twins will be lucky to make 3rd place. Very lucky. Upside is that projected stats are some of the funniest things to read 3 months later (like projections for the Giants last year), and I hope the projections you cite are wrong! (Even better, I'd love to be wrong about Max; in many ways he is my favorite Twin!)
  24. PatPfund
    Love the name factor, but... ummm... ...it's been 7 years since he had a good and healthy season. He hasn't been in camp with less than 2 weeks to Opening Day, so how stretched out could he be by then? Doesn't that really make him depth behind someone like Winder, at least until he can throw 4-5 innings. Upside is he'll cost less than JA Happ (who is still available!!!!), and probably pitch better than Matty Shoe. Guess I'd stretch him out in St Paul, and try him when one of the many 'if's on the staff doesn't work. So, yea!? (Just kidding with the faux Happ excitement; don't freak out people! Well unless the Twins sign Happ again...)
  25. PatPfund
    Buxton (when healthy) is the only solid outfielder on the roster, so there are no roadblocks, only speed bumps in the way of any prospects. The ONLY (non-salary) reason Kepler is considered a second lineup lock, is because he can play defense, and no prospect has hit well enough to force the issue. And three years ago Max destroyed juiced balls before the shift destroyed him. If Larnach continues to hit in Spring Training, he should be the fourth outfielder right away (along with Kirilloff, Buxton, and Kepler), and if Alex and Trevor hit better than Max, they both should play more, and Kepler can be the defensive replacement. If they don't hit... Well, this team has too many giant question-mark-hitters on the roster already to succeed with low-.200s/dozen-HR performances from the corner outfielders.
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