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PatPfund

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  1. PatPfund
    Though in all fairness, I was pretty pissed when I went to Tortuga Day in my new Tortuga shirt, and Rocco kept him out of the lineup. (Though he did get to pinch hit, and got hit, so all's well that ends well.)
  2. PatPfund
    One of the funniest things in life is how everybody thinks their job is hard, and everybody else's is easy. If MLB was just showing up in the afternoon, shagging a few flies on green grass, and taking a few cuts, you could stock the roster from any rec softball team in the state. Or any town ball team. But it isn't, and you can't (and if you played a townball roster 6-7 days a week for six months you would wreck them all). These players do things with their bodies (things nobody reading this can do) that have physical consequences, and then they have to come back and do them again the next day (or 90 minutes later for a double-header day). ALL of the successful managers work their benches to keep their players fresh, and their role players sharp. ALL of them. I have no idea how many players appeared in all games last season, but I'd be more shocked if it was 10 or more than if it were none. And frankly when I go to a game live, I much prefer to see my team win than amp about somebody getting a day off. And the Twins tied the game in question thanks in part to Godoy, and then they won it, thanks in part... again... to Godoy. (Who didn't even have a healthy replacement at a critical position if he had been lifted, and, say, Correa had come up and struck out.)
  3. PatPfund
    I get the Boston Globe and also follow the Red Sox, and I distinctly remember an article in Spring 2018 ripping new manager Alex Cora for potentially giving away May games for maybe the chance to have players fresh in the fall. (The Red Sox won the Series that year.) Lost a bit in all the 'what-ifs' and 'should haves' about Sunday's game is that the Twins won. And Godoy worked two good at-bats for walks, and scored two critical runs in front of Byron Buxton (who even credited the batters ahead of him for getting on, and getting him to the plate). Nobody wins a title without their bench contributing, and benches contribute only if they get play. (Different sport, but one reason I think the Timberwolves got seriously better this year, is when they lost their starters all at once, mostly under Covid rules, and had to live with their bench for a week or so. Eyes were opened.) I have a bunch of Rocco-issues, but this isn't one of them.
  4. PatPfund
    Vallimont may have future value as a reliever, but emphasis on "may" and "future". The Twins have serious bullpen issues in the majors right now, and right now they have non-40-man-roster pitchers (like Minaya and Cotton) who have already produced in MLB at rates far better than Vallimont has produced in AA. No realistic fast-track is going to leap him to the majors ahead of the two named (or Cano or Smeltzer or... well about 4-5 others). Right now he simply smells, and waiver wires are about to be clogged. The Twins should bounce him off the 40-man now at his low point and when others have a bazillion options, then work on a redemption scheme when/if he clears waivers. Because he WILL need to get bounced at some point this season, and if you do it after redeeming him to some extent (but when he is still a year-plus from the majors), and when waivers are relatively clear, you are far more likely to lose him.
  5. PatPfund
    Man, I hope he is on the verge. Because the difference between competitive Twins (somewhere 5 games either side of .500), and dynamite Twins (winning the division, and maybe even a playoff game! or series!!!!) is getting regular and solid contributions from Kepler and Sano. (And both gave rays of hope last night. Yep, Grossman probably should have caught Sano's line drive, but that was a solidly struck ball going with the pitch; two things that look great on Miguel.)
  6. PatPfund
    Not sure he is fine (yet), but it could also be as simple as he got used to saying nothing while out of touch, was super tentative in ST, then finally said something, saw a doctor, got a scan, and was told discomfort was coming from scar tissue, etc, and he couldn't damage it by playing. And got cortisone to deal with the immediate discomfort. (Having come back from a serious injury, it is fairly amazing the relief that comes from professional feedback like that. And how doubt can cripple/slow recovery if you aren't getting feedback.)
  7. PatPfund
    Great article, and you've identified some good arms to help. My order for call up would probably be Minaya (now; for late mostly single inning use), Cotton (now as a bridge following the starter or otherwise as circumstances dictate), and Cano (soon, as in 2-3 weeks). The crunch is definitely on for 40-man roster spots, but also the soon-to-be 26 man active roster, because none of them can help unless they are in the bigs, and that means somebody (somebodies) need to go. Assuming Winder is optioned as the pitcher who needs to go to get to 13 arms, the bullpen would be Coulombe, Duffey, Duran, Jax, Pagán, Smith, Stashak, and Thielbar. Plus one of the current starters if they are sticking with a 5 man rotation when Gray comes back. (Probably the end for Stashak unless Coulombe or Jax has options and Cody doesn't. If someone has options, they could go down, and you'd DFA Vallimont to get a 40-man spot. Or do the Enlow thing below.) To get my three up, I’d DFA Thielbar (for Minaya), Jax (for Cotton), and likely give Duffey a little more time to work things out. Then DFA him if/when that doesn’t happen, and call up Cano. That gives Strotman and/or Vallimont some time to right their ships as well, though they should be skating on thin 40-man ice. The Twins could also buy a month of flexibility by not rushing Blayne Enlow back from Tommy John, and just put him on the 60-day IL retroactive to the start of the season. Gives him a few extra weeks of rehab (wasn’t due back until mid-May), and opens a 40-man slot until he is activated. They could also consider flipping one of their six starters for a starting corner outfielder. Dylan Bundy’s value may never be this high again. (Wouldn’t open a 40-man slot, but would open a space in the ‘pen.)
  8. PatPfund
    Good article, though I agree with the other that Neshek doesn’t belong here. Clear injury related decline in MN, and a long multiple All-Star appearance career after he left. But yeah, the others. Thielbar is in his age 35 season. His stuff looks to be declining, and I bet he knows it, because despite his history of decent to good control, he now seems afraid to throw it over the plate, walking more than a batter per inning pitched. And I get that fear since batters (in a very light-hitting April league-wide) are pounding him for a .375 BAA. The Twins have better options now, and they should waive him on May 2nd. I like Caleb, and hope he gets a chance elsewhere, but either way his skills and age probably mean he is out of baseball soon. Duffey’s leash is probably longer, but shouldn’t be too much longer. Look up his career stats, and he is a distinctly mediocre pitcher (with a negative WAR from 2016-18) until things click in 2019-20 when he became very good. Last year was solid, but with some flags popping (like declining velocity). One can only speculate on how the banning of tacky stuff affected Tyler (though his second half was better than his first). Overall, he looks like a pitcher in his early thirties losing speed he depends on. Some pitchers can reinvent themselves, and extend their career (like Caleb Thielbar). Some can’t. Either way, Tyler looks a lot more the Early Duffey than Dominant Duffey, but I’d give him some more time to work that out. But not forever, and not 8th or 9th high leverage until he shows he has worked it out, because the Twins have options in their system.
  9. PatPfund
    Dick Bremer is great, and I hope he keeps at it a while yet! Too young (hah! at 63 I don't type that too often any more) to know some of the early candidates, but off the top of my head, I can't think of anyone other than Herb Carneal that I'd rather listen to on the call. They have/had the same relaxed way of letting the game breathe around the call (and both have/had professional-grade pipes). (Plus there was the 1987 'so did you hear about the Lindbergh baby, Harmon?' comment that knocked me off my chair with surprised laughter.)
  10. PatPfund
    Yeah, we have prospects, but... Lewis needs to stay in AAA, hit, and play shortstop every day. He looks good, it is likely a position of need, and the Twins have a habit of scattering people all over the field to the point. Bring him up later in the year (or at the trade deadline, because if we stink, Carlos might like a trade out of here to a contender) to give him a taste before taking over next year. Martin plays AA middle infield, and from what I've seen (maybe a distorted picture) defensively, he looks... umm... sub-optimal (to steal a description of Thielbar's meltdown the other day). But given Lewis's sharp defense, maybe it's time to jump Martin to AAA for a stiffer hitting test, and play him in the outfield where the path is clearer to the MLB roster. And you can't promote Miranda, because... because... umm... I stumped. Miranda's been playing first base. He plays a solid 3B. He is the reigning Twins Minor League Player of the Year after shredding pitching at AA and AAA, and his admittedly cold start of .245, 1 HR, 8 RBI, and 13 hits would rank him as a top four Twins hitter (and his bat has been warming the past two weeks). Give Miguel some time on the pine (which is the only thing that fires him up), play Miranda at first, and DH him when Sanchez catches. (Because Jeffers can't hit, and until he does, he shouldn't DH.)
  11. PatPfund
    Agree with the OP about Duran. Pretty much don’t agree on Tyler and Caleb. Come May the roster reduces to 26; likely 13 pitchers and 13 hitters. I’d have these 13 pitchers: Archer, Bundy, Gray (when activated), Ober, Paddack, Ryan all stretched out to starter length. Middle or post-starter situational: Duffey, Smith, Cotton (track him down, apologize, get him back), and one of Jax/Coulombe/Smeltzer. Late (mostly single) innings: Minaya, Duran, Pagan I also like the Thielbar story, but his stats last year stepped down from a terrific (and short) 2020. The arm is 35 now, speed is down, and the 3 batter minimum means no more cherry-picked lefties only. He simply is not good enough any more, and leaning on him is like leaning on Colomé last spring. Duffey is in a similar boat, but has probably earned a bit more leash. I’d still only use him in mop-ups until (if) he figures it out, because he absolutely does not look like a good arm with the lower velocity. Winder is probably one of the five best starters right now, but until he actually is put in the rotation, he should pitch for the Saints so he is fully ready when needed. Which will happen this year. Barring injury, I’d guess Bundy or Paddack are most likely to pitch themselves into the second group, and Smith or Coulombe most likely to pitch themselves into the late inning picture. (But heaven help us if it is as closer.) (In reality, the Twins probably keep Jax and don’t re-sign Cotton. Seriously, what happened there? They claim him early, he does well in ST, then gets waived after two scoreless innings against a good team?) Send down/release Jax, Theilbar, Stashak, Romero. If they have options, fine. If they need waivers and get claimed, good for them. Bet most clear, though, and get a chance to redeem themselves with the Saints.
  12. PatPfund
    I'd rather see Contreras get a shot before Cave. We kind of know by now what Cave gives (decent defender, sub-par to terrible batting range). Enjoying the bejeebers (technical term) out of watching the minor league teams this year. Thanks for the excellent report!
  13. PatPfund
    Mostly like the Larnach take, and this is pretty much his time. He has the tools, and if he figures out MLB, the Twins are good in left. Kirilloff isn't even worth discussing at this point. He still has pain after surgery and months of recuperation. He couldn't hit with the pain last year, and hasn't so far this year. The LAST thing we need is Kirilloff trying to gut it out as a no-power .189 hitter on the 26/8 man roster. He should stay on IL until they have a plan and execute it. (I'm doubtful he is of use at all this year; hope I'm wrong.) The part that made me giggle a little was the "if there’s a place that Minnesota has options, it’s in corner outfielders" statement. Several years ago when Max, Bryron, and Eddie were slugging, and we had Kirilloff, Larnach, and Rooker coming up, well... then we had riches in the OF. But Eddie is gone, Max hasn't hit in two-plus years, Byron gets hurt, Rooker is gone, and Larnach/Kirilloff have yet to click. Celestino is raw, Gordon is still a question mark, and Garlick is a one trick journeyman pony. Sure we can put bodies out there, but other than Larnach, I'm not seeing anybody other than maybe Contreras who can play defense and (maybe) hit at the MLB level right now.
  14. PatPfund
    Worth a look back, but I just don't know how you wouldn't sign Sano after 2019 when he looked like he'd figured it out under Cruz's tutelage. (And Cron had an injury plagued year.) Sano's $10 million isn't over the top for pay; the frustrating part is he still may or may not be on the verge of figuring it out (three years after we thought he had).
  15. PatPfund
    I'm laughing with pain. Not because of Sano, but for the flashbacks to reading the Godot play. Which was excruciating. (FYI, I originally typo-ed the name as Gadot. For the record, Gal would definitely be worth waiting for...)
  16. PatPfund
    I agree we are probably stuck with Sano for the year, because of everything the article said. But I disagree about Sano needing ABs to work through this; he pretty much does his thing until his job is threatened (one year getting sent down; last year being effectively benched), and then he seems to adapt. So bat him ninth when he is in the order, and start taking him out of the order as soon as you can figure out an alternative. Or even if there isn't a great alternative. Bring up a minor leaguer to play at first (though having seen some of the Saints this year, Miranda has looked a little rough at 1B). See if Urshela can do it, opening up more playing time for Arraez. Work the free agent/trade market. Anything to plausibly make it look as if Sano is being bypassed. Because that is the only time he turns it on. (FYI, I don't think it is a "caring" thing. He is in great shape and playing pretty good D because of that. He has a pretty good eye, and a low chase rate. But he might just not be good enough to hit the pitches in the zone on a consistent basis, or he refuses to take advice on how to be more consistent, or a bit of both. Either way, and garbage time stats that make him look 'above average' aside, I hope he is not around after this year.)
  17. PatPfund
    Kirilloff is a super gut punch. OF was clearly the position of need that received the least attention in the offseason. I get that; SS and SP were glaring holes, and there were some good in-house prospects led by Kirilloff and Larnach. But Larnach hasn't made the step beyond AAA (and hasn't even been hitting there so far, though it's early), and now Kirilloff is out and very possibly for the year. Maybe Larnach is struck by lightning and takes off (though Contreras is probably a better bet), or a Gordon comes out of nowhere. But most likely the Twins will need to find a free agent or trade to put a real MLB bat in LF. They have enough questions about catching offense that they can't continue to carry low-pop .200 hitters in both corner OF positions.
  18. PatPfund
    I disagree that drafts and bonuses (expectation-based) have anything to do with actual breakout players (who perform to high levels after being drafted/signed) except you hope a higher percentage of the first become the second. Kohl Stewart is an excellent example. High pick, high expectations, never broke out at any level and is out of baseball. This is baseball, not football or basketball. A far higher level of top picks don't pan out in this sport than you see in other sports, so tracking players primed for breakout is well worth the effort. And again breakout is actuality not expectation. Though predicting breakout is expectation of actuality. Still... fun for most of us to think about, though clearly not your cup of tea.
  19. PatPfund
    Well, right now I'd tell Nick Gordon he is the regular LF. He's a very good athlete, he was a top pick for a reason, he is out of options so the team needs to find out about him now, and he is the least embarrassing bat among the non-Buxton OFs. Gordon is likely to improve on both O and D if he is given a regular gig, and if he doesn't that's good to know as well. His floor is certainly better than we'd see from Larnach. Not right-handed? I don't really care. Rocco talks about how he wants his best batters (Buxton, Correa) at the top of the order, I want the best nine bats IN the order. Platooning is nice if you have some extra good hitters; this team doesn't even have three good hitters in the outfield or Kepler would be fighting for his job. Beyond that, Garlick would be the best immediate add; Upton is Matt Shoemaker in an outfielder's guise. The Twins should also take a look pretty quickly at Mark Contreras who had the lamp go on last year, and is raking so far this spring. Maybe even in April with the rosters expanded. I believe Winder has earned a real shot, but since Rocco is just going to trot him out for an inning once a week, he'd serve the club better working as a starter in St Paul. (Oh no! Contreras isn't on the 40 man! Umm. Maybe we could dare to DFA Vallimont who blew chunk last year, and currently sports a 67.50 ERA and .714 BAA.) And maybe work the trade market for a legit OF; not a used up name like Upton. They will come available (I think Atlanta found one or four on their way to the title last year).
  20. PatPfund
    This is a good question, because Arraez is clearly one of the better hitters on the team (right now the only three clearly ahead are Buxton, Correa, and Polanco). He gives consistent competitive high average at-bats regardless of who he is facing. He runs up pitch counts, gives those on-deck extended looks, and can help force pitchers out earlier. The problem is both mediocre D, and the fact that his positions in the field are already covered by Polanco (better with bat and D) and Urshela (better at D, probably similar tier with bat). A straight platoon with Urshela doesn't fix much because either way it puts one of the better bats on the bench leaving three major weak spots in the order (Sano at 1B, Kepler in RF, fill-in-the-blank in LF). Most of us hope/believe part of this will be fixed with Kirilloff starting to hit, but the above situation is why I think Alex needs to stay in LF. Everyone is excited to supplant Sano at 1B, but Miguel has actually played pretty well over there this year (fruits of the slim down?), and Kirilloff could fill one of the Three Bat Voids by staying in LF. Keeping Sano at 1B also lets you put one of the best hitters on your team in a position designed for one of your best hitters, DH. Arraez should probably be in the starting lineup about 3/4 of the time, and 2/3 of those should be at DH with the balance giving Urshela and Polanco days off. Lack of power? Who cares; this team's problem isn't a lack of people who can hit the ball out, it is a shortage of people who can consistently hit. And I guess hope Alex hits soon. (I'm afraid at this point, Sano and Kepler are what they are. A big guy who strikes out a LOT, walks, can hit really long home runs, but goes ice cold for months at a time. And a guy who literally seems incapable of adapting to shifts, and is really a defensive OF replacement at this point.)
  21. PatPfund
    Seth, love the format; 10-15 minutes is something I'm more likely to watch, and kudos to Thomas; I'm enjoying the Kernels broadcasts! Not sure if this was forwarded, but maybe in a month or so it might be fun to connect to Jake Cave. Polarizing peeps make great ratings! So many beard questions! FYI, I was not able to comment here for those who had issues, but the site admin found a permissions issue that has been fixed. Upside, everyone should be set. Downside, I am! (giggle)
  22. PatPfund
    Ah, the agonies of the early season where these two games portend a horrible year! Or mean exactly nothing, and we're all laughing a month from now about how low we felt. It was pretty clear Rocco was going to give Duffey the first shot at closing (he was also getting ready to work the 10th on Friday if needed). Which I think is a terrible idea (Duffey is a variable somewhat above average reliever with declining velocity), but maybe had to be done from a team standpoint.) Hopefully, going forward, Alcala and Pagán will get their shots before the inevitable Duran takeover. (FYI, I doubt Duran was even available given his history of elbow issues and the fact he threw 2 innings in the Opener. But when even your opponents are saying 'WTH was that?' after facing one of your relievers, it might be a clue he should close games at some point.) Also, for those waving around the Rogers save; yep he's good, which is why we got two good players back for him. Also José Berríos's ERA is 108.00, so aren't we all glad now he's gone? (Or maybe it is just early, and games are 1/162 of a season.)
  23. PatPfund
    Great article, because draft position and bonus mean nothing once you run out on the field. It's play that breaks you out. Though I'd certainly have Encarnacio-Strand on the Kernels list somewhere; sure he can't hit .900 with 30% of ABs leaving the yard all year, but he's coming off a .391 (short) first year in pro ball, and still mashing to open 2022. Plus, he's a college player, so if he keeps it up, I can see him moving up pretty quickly.
  24. PatPfund
    Beloit's pitching staff must be having Encarnacio-Strand nightmares at this point.
  25. PatPfund
    I think the groupings you have are good, but don’t work at all with the numerical rankings (rank in order is good, or rank by group with the numbers out of sequence good, but not both?). The fun of any list, too, is the chance to suggest differences, and here are a few of mine: Cody Stashak and Griffin Jax are rated too high; both have given gutsy needed innings in the past, but both have been a bit exposed/injured, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they never make it back up to the Twins. Sands and Strotman (who you have down at the bottom) are already tossing at AAA, and unless Stashak/Jax get good results quickly, S and S are likely to be the early call ups. And Balazovic is looming to pass by Stashak/Jax as well. I’m putting Archer ahead of Bundy/Jax/Stashak/Romero. Winder is easily top 20; already in the Bigs, and possibly a rotation pitcher at some point this season. I love the Thielbar story, but no way is he a back of bullpen stud; an ERA in the ‘3’s for a one inning pitcher is more steady than stud, plus he is 35. I’d rate him no more than #30 on this list, and predict by the end of the calendar year he will be off the 40-man. (Here is where the groupings most distort the rankings; even if you like Thielbar there is no way he is better/more valuable than both your MLB catchers, and your everyday starting 3B.) No way as well that Duffey is #12 on the 40-man. Or anywhere ahead of Alcala and Duran for long (even in Rocco’s mind). I love Max, but he probably ranks more aroun the late teens or early 20s, and is vulnerable to benching/demoted-to-sub if any two young OFs start hitting. (Unless he actually starts to hit, but I've sort of lost hope there.) Totally agree that Larnach is an x-factor bat, but he needs to light it up pretty quickly or other x-factors will blow past him (non-40-man Martin, Miranda, Celestino if the lamp goes on in the Bigs as it did in AAA last year). I’d probably drop him into the 28-32 range, which fits better with him not making the 28-man roster. Based on his hot start, I'd also rank Jake Cave as an x-factor bat, and rank him highly. Well except he isn't on the 40-man, I just remembered he is actually Jake Cave, and this post is 3 times too long if I'm talking about Jake Cave...
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