PatPfund

Enough with the ace pitching. Nobody is dealing an ace this close to the season (especially not for some of the "offers" suggested here). I like much of what has happened in the off-season, but the Gallo signing left the team with too many LH hitting OFs (none of whom show signs yet of being able to hit .240 and stay healthy other than Gordon), and the bullpen still feels light (short a Fulmer, maybe?). If we are making any moves I'd rather we thin the OF crop, and add a good pitcher for Rocco to overuse in the 6th and 7th innings. And reassess in late May to possibly add what the team needs. Because until this team shows otherwise, it is not an "ace" away from winning it all, and if Kirilloff, Larnach, Polanco, Kepler, Gallo, Buxton, etc don't either step up or stay healthy or both the team is as likely to be sellers as they are to be buyers in July.

I'm probably not as down on the team as @mikelink45, but probably like him, I'd rather see some actual regular season games played (like 100+ of them) before I'm taking seriously any comparison to past teams that have played a full year. We probably haven't even the last of the trades (no way the Twins should be carrying this many OFs on the 40-man, and please, can we sign Fulmer before we have to trade another prospect for him at the deadline?), which might be a better preseason topic than a 'retrospective' comparison of the unplayed '23 season to years past.

AJ Alexy was DFA'd to clear a 40 man spot. It cracks me up a bit to hear Taylor compared to Celestino. One has a World Series ring, a Gold Glove, and leads the majors in CF defensive runs saved over the last three seasons. The other is a raw in-over-his-head player whose hitting pales even to 'light-hitting' Michael Taylor, and whose sometimes passable defense is often wrecked by his trouble remembering how many outs there are, or where he should throw the ball. (Not to mention the dreadful base-running.) Not sure Gilberto will ever be ready for MLB, but for sure he needs a chance to develop his game in St Paul, and both he and the Twins will be better for it. Taylor will be great in the field, and as electric wheels coming off the bench. Solid move.

I get the attraction of a new name, but one of the reasons I think Luis was a potential trade asset was to open space with a glut of potential bats on the horizon (some of whom might displace Miranda at 3b, namely Lewis or Lee). Adding somebody in this slot is akin to signing Wacha or another end-of-career person who keeps ready players from stepping up (hitting on the one hand, pitching on the other). This shifts a bit if they move Kepler (which won't bring back an MLB player, but opens an OF slot (for a prospect if not a signee like Profar), but I'd rather they sign Fulmer to bolster the 'pen, and start the year with internal hitting options.

Rocco was given the pitching staff, but handling them has never been a strong point as even he would admit (he leaned HEAVILY on our departed pitching coach there). He needs to learn how to use long relievers better instead of using the SP for 5 followed by 4 RPs. Base-running (as many have pointed out) is coached as a fundamental by the coaching staff which Rocco runs. We have 5000 assistants, it would be nice if one focused on base-running if that isn't Rocco's deal (you didn't see this sort of mess from Kelly or Molitor teams). But it is also worth noting that the injury roster churn had a number of MiLB players playing in the bigs, and that was where a lot of the problem lay. We need better base-running coaches at AA and AAA as well. Miranda was solid at 3B in the minors; I expect he'll be fine there (and hit better than alternatives) if you stop bouncing him around position-wise. Polanco (formerly solid) was pretty dim on D last year. He'll need to clean that up and stay healthy or the infield prospects coming up (particularly Lee and Lewis) are going to force a change within this season.

Yeah.... but no. We have the reigning AL batting champion at 1B (knees kept healthier by playing 1B). We have (if early reports are true) Alex Kirilloff swinging pain-free for the first time in two years. We have an aging 2B in Polanco whose bat might still play there (and keep his legs healthier). We have several top-hitting prospects (like Lewis and Lee) who list at SS, but could play as well at 2B or 3B (possibly displacing Miranda and/or Polanco who could shift ABs to 1B). We have a plethora of tall corner OFs (Larnach, Wallner, etc) whose bats may push them to the MLB team, and whose defense or opportunities might shift them to 1B. There is no way I want an 30 y.o. over-the-hill, vaguely motivated player who doesn't take coaching blocking the path of any of that development (some of which should be happening at St Paul). Whatever future Sano has in baseball (and I don't think much will be at the MLB level), it probably is best for him to start it in a different organization.

Celestino really isn't a tough one to figure out. He was jumped over AAA for emergency reasons, and he plays like it, so send him to AAA and find out if he can develop. If somebody asks for him in a trade, and you can get a useful return, sprain ankles jumping on it, but I'm not holding my breath. (Gallo and Kepler can both play better defense to backup Buxton.) Kepler has little trade value, plays great defense, and really isn't worse offensively than most of the OFs mentioned here (low bar until the youngsters prove something). I'd rather have most of the youth (other than Gordon and a healthy Kirilloff, if he IS healthy) start in the minors. And force their way to the majors the old fashion way. (And if Max starts to hit more with the shift gone and increase his in-season trade value, I'd love that.) Having the younger set catch fire, and actually create a problem would be fabulous, because until they do our problem in the OF (other than Byron staying healthy) is quality, not quantity. And trades would just be ditching quantity since they are all discount bin material. (If you want a real return, you would need to trade something really valued like Polanco or Arraez or Miranda or Brooks Lee. Or pitching. And I don't want to go there yet.)

Lots of future prospects to watch, but I'd love Martin to show well at the plate, and hopefully get lots of work in the OF. His on-base skills and athletic ability are far beyond so-called RH "bats" Celestino or Garlick. And he certainly can't be stupider on the playing field than Gilberto. If they stop trying to force power from him, Martin is a potential run-scoring/base-stealing offensive piece to add to a lineup that needs (especially RH) offense badly.

Good preview, though as others have noted, Josh Winder is on the 40-man, and should (IMO) be on the 26-man roster ahead of Megill and Pagan to name a couple (Moran as well if he has control issues again). If Rocco ever figures out how to use a long RP, he'd also be my first pick to fill an open rotation spot. Celestino's bat and baseball IQ are not MLB-ready. Again as noted in the comments, Gallo and/or Kepler can play CF, so Celestino should start in St Paul. In all honesty, if I were the Twins, Celestino and Farmer would be pieces to shop with now, or in-season (maybe they can pry away a useful arm from Boston; they need a SS and OF depth).

Offer Correa $35 million a year for two years and he can opt out after next season (which essentially allows him a do-over on this year's opt out). It would be the highest AAV offer he's seen, and allow him to bet again on himself if he wants to opt out after 2023. Carlos gets another short-term answer, the Twins get an impact bat (having let more cost-effective ones at other positions) that can play (for now) great defense. I doubt he takes the offer, but the Twins will at least have put the best offer (in AAV) on the table. If he walks, I'm fine with that, because in three years he will likely be starting the downside of his career. Shortstops don't generally age well; at Correa's age Andrelton Simmons was the best SS glove in the game, at 32 he may be headed out of baseball. Troy Tulowitzki had his last season above 1 WAR at 31, and was out of baseball three injury-wrecked seasons later. Nomar Garciaparra was fabulous. Until he turned 29; over the next 5 years he accumulated a total of about 3 WAR (or less than a game better than Replacement per year, and two were below Replacement (and he was out of baseball at 35). Sure, there are taller SS examples with longer careers like Ripken and Jeter, but Correa's probably already missed more games that either (possibly both combined), and he has that plate in his leg. My guess is that his leg is healthy short term, but the book on a bolted together bone gets statistically grim in the 30s (and as the Strib or Athletic pointed out, the bat doesn't really play for that money without the elite SS defense). If he goes long term someone else should make that mistake. (Also, the assumption that salaries will always rise is pretty dicey given baseball's falling ratings and aging fan-base. That will have serious media revenue bite in the coming years.)

You two should google Mitchell Miller Cam Neely Boston Bruins. IMO the Dodgers won't find a trade partner, but if they do, the suckers... er... front office that acquires Bauer will be lucky if they cut him loose fast enough to keep their jobs. Bauer is already going to get paid $20 million next season. If he really wants to resurrect his career, he should get some help, so that a future employer can plausibly claim he's on a healthy path. Right now he's a rusting canister of toxic PR waste ready to damage the reputation and job security of anyone who signs him.

I laughed hard at this one. Like a Randballs Stu post! Gilberto mixes some physical ability to defend with a bat that does not look MLB-ready, and frankly some of the stupidest plays I've seen recently in the majors. Playing him in the minors isn't a luxury, it is the only chance he has to figure it out. (Or maybe the Twins can put a radio in his cap to tell him how many outs there are before every pitch.) Kepler and Gallo are both better options to backup Buxton (better defenders right now, and despite their issues, both better at the plate). If Celestino has trade value, the Twins should cash in on it; if Gilberto gets 80 starts for the team this year, it probably means another OF meltdown, and another lost season. Maybe someday he gets better, but he should do it in St Paul first.

No. No. No. A thousand times NO. And this is from someone who wanted Bauer before he signed with the Dodgers. When he threw the ball over the CF fence from the pitching area I saw competitive fire (that also got him fired out of Cleveland). But pair that with allegedly choking his bedmate unconscious and beating her in the head (which publicly he denied, but in a recorded phone conversation with the victim, his answer to 'do you even know how many times you hit me in the head?' was 'I don't think it was that many times'), and you have a person who SHOULD NEVER WEAR A TWINS UNIFORM. Employing an allegedly unrepentant serial domestic abuser to win a playoff game is about as sad a loss of perspective as I can imagine. No matter how passionate we are about this game, in the end it is just a game.

Giant yawn. The only way either pitcher pitches serious innings for the Twins in 2023 is if the pitching staff is riddled by injury, or the last place team features them post-mid-season fire sale. Or both. Is it wrong that I'm feeling misty for last year's lock-out? When at least there was an excuse for doing nothing, because nobody could do anything?

The Rodon miss is a bummer. Yep, injury risk, but two healthy dominant years, and a key missing piece on this team in a position where there isn't an obvious answer coming up (decent pitchers maybe; ace, not in the next 1-2 years. Would have liked Contreras, but CV is a solid answer to a big hole. Both on base talent, and championship experience. Swanson was the best of the SS deals, but that is a low bar. (I'm guessing all of the Big 4 "winners" are going to deeply regret the second halves of their deals. If Swanson can keep hitting in the 120 OPS+ range (no lock), his D might hold up to make less than half of the deal a bad one. (And a smaller bad for less years.) Still, the Twins' top prospects play middle infield, and they shouldn't be blowing a decade of money for a one year solution on a position that doesn't age well, and where they have talent coming up. Way too many other needs where we don't have prospects. The other starters are o.k., but how many #2-3 types and reclamations do we need on the 40-man? I would have been looking harder at good outfielders who can hit (and we missed on some of those too).

The part of the OP that is dead on? Max has more value to the Twins than to others. A. (as pointed out) the vaunted OF depth doesn't exist. In both of the past two seasons we've been running a cast of players not-ready-for-prime-time to the OF for extended starts. One of them (Celestino) is often considered a fixture of some sort now, despite being a weak-bat/weak-mind player. B. Everyone else knows of Max's struggles. I'd trade him today if there was going to be something substantial coming back, but if it is just to move him (or dump salary with the tens of millions we have free to spend right now), then... no. And again, everyone knows Max, so something substantial isn't coming back.

Trading these three would be stupid. Our biggest needs are an ace, middle infield, a catcher, pitching depth, and restocking a 'depleted' farm system. So further depleting that system by shipping out potential (low cost) stars at some of needed spots makes no sense. This year we have a rare chance to spend money on Free Agents within our budget. And since that budget will NEVER be one of the top 5 in MLB, it makes sense to spend that money on areas we have no near-term solutions in our system. Ace and catcher for instance. Maybe an extra big bat or two. That will work if we supplement young "value" players coming up, but it won't work if we trade them to get similars available right now for "just" money. Which isn't to say it won't happen. This Front Office likes to wait around to get "Value" table scraps that often turn out to be something you wouldn't give your dog. Then they ship out our future for middling/disappointing short-term returns. And sadly try to wildly overspend for a decade on the very position two of our top prospects play. If only there was a recent example of a team that won it all letting their about-to-be-expensive SS walk in favor of a talented-and-cheap rookie (saving their money to spend in areas of higher impact). Oh, wait...

Option A, please, and don't waste money on a Big 4 (let others damage themselves with that mistake). Spend the money on getting an ace (like Rodon), a starting catcher (like Contreras or Vasquez), and a legitimate starting outfielder (I don't care about LH or RH; I want an MLB hitter/defender to lock down a spot among the injured/inexperienced/stupid (yep, Gilberto, that's you). Maybe even get get Abreu to be our new Cruz. Maybe add cheap SS depth. Options abound if we don't waste money over-paying a shortstop for the better part of a decade for past work. There is no evidence an "elite" shortstop is needed to win a title, and a boatload of evidence that most shortstops peak before they get to free agency. Plus we had Correa last year; it was worth a try, and pretty exciting, but I'm not real interested in a redo (and he's the best and youngest of the Big 4 bunch).

I'm tipping my cap for the year, and bidding him farewell. Spending big money on shortstop is goofy; you get bigger bang for the buck elsewhere. I'm glad the Twins tried it (the lockout limited the options and Correa was a noble effort), but signing him limits most other moves, and we have many needs. Because Correa was on the team this year, and is anyone out there happy with the results? Committing serious resources for almost a decade to a player who has at most three years of elite SS play left is extra goofy. It not only hurts us in the short run, but will be a millstone around the neck that gets worse every year. It is the sort of thing that forced Boston into shipping out one of the game's gems, Mookie Betts; they couldn't even keep their best internally developed player, because of albatross contracts. And FYI, if Carlos wanted to play here, he had a deal for $70+ million signed with the Twins that he voided. After his replacement in Houston won MVP, my guess is he wants to sign in LA or NY or some organization that will be a Series favorite, and that won't be the Twins (especially if they sign Carlos, and fill out their roster with rookies and waiver claim projects). He wants a long Twins contract about as much as I want him to sign one.

Great for Kirk, but the fact is that it is radical/rarely done surgery. Alex may come back strong, but he also may never come back. Having to pencil a giant question mark like Kirilloff, an oft-injured Larnach, and a recent AA grad in Wallner in as a third of your starting lineup, while leaving serial screw-up and light-hitting Celestino as a key reserve is precisely why... spending $35-40 million at shortstop is a BAD IDEA. Not just for the Twins, but for any team not in one of the country's largest markets. (Texas sure was awesome last year, right?) Spend 1/3-1/4 of that short term on a good stopgap SS, get a starting level OF and C, and re-sign Urshela with the balance. That leaves space for the prospects to develop into starters instead of betting the farm (and season) on them being both healthy and good. Because if they are Plan A, there is no Plan B.

SS is not our area of most need. You can win with a decent shortstop, and we DID NOT win with Correa in 2022. Neither did any of the LCS teams this year. If you don't spend that money on shortstop (instead, spend a much smaller amount on a decent stopgap, because Lewis and Lee are coming at some point in 2023), you can address some of the other wild shortcomings of your roster. Narvaez (or Vasquez, I'm not a platoon fetishist) would be nice at catcher. Rodon should be a top priority. But so should another OF of starting quality (like a Benintendi; hit .300 and flashed Gold Glove level D). Any roster with Celestino on it (light-hitting airhead) is weak; dude needs serious AAA time. Also, any lineup that counts on Alex Kirilloff (who is recovering from experimental surgery that cut out bone to make his forearm shorter) is fantasy; he may be great, or he may never play in MLB again. The Twins should keep Urshela, and plan on Miranda mostly at first, unless they do go out and sign Mancini (in which you let Gio go, and play Mancini at 1B and Jose at 3B). Signing Mancini is more plausible without the money going to Correa.

Signing Correa to a long massive contract would be a massive mistake. I loved having him on the team this year, but it was essentially proof that having one of the best all-around team-mate/fielding/hitting shortstops in MLB didn't keep this team from being not very good in a weak division. They simply have too many other needs, and the massive contract will keep them from addressing those needs. This isn't only a Twins issue; I put (again) the question to all those who want to sign Correa: When was the last World Series champion with a big money shortstop? I've been through the past decade-plus, and can't find one. I don't think it is a fluke; building a balanced roster means strategic spending, and shortstop is a position that likely peaks either in the arbitration years of a player's career, or shortly thereafter. The resources to retain a player like Correa are simply more strategically spent elsewhere, particularly if you are a mid-to-small market team. None of the final four teams this year got to the LCS with a big-dollar SS (San Diego had one, but he was suspended through their playoff push and early playoff success). Houston (spending money on pitching and other locations) let Correa go, and is on the verge of a championship. Again, I was a fan of the signing and Correa's play/impact, but you can even make an argument the Twins would have been better this year without him (Lewis comes up earlier, and maybe doesn't get hurt, though that is a big maybe). I'm not a big fan of re-running 2022 when signing a top SS made only a marginal improvement to our record. Let's tip our cap to Carlos for the time served, and spend our money on areas where we both have need (#1 SP, catcher, outfield), and where there is a history of top free agents having championship impact on teams.

The OP (and the series) is doing good work in assessing trade values, because if you ARE going to do trades for real talent, you can't send back people you might be dumping from the 40 man in a couple weeks (other teams are at least as informed as Twins Daily readers). That being said, I agree with the many who say don't trade him now. His trade value is not great, and he as a pretty clear path to the majors in the outfield, and potentially at 2b. Someone mentioned Kepler, Kirilloff, Wallner, and Celestino earlier; Max is glove-only (aka a reserve) at this point, Kirilloff had pieces of bone cut out of his arm to shorten it (aka, he may NEVER play an MLB game again), Wallner has promise (but few at-bats above AA), and Celestino... (maybe the lowest baseball IQ I've seen in a Twins uni in decades). The Twins outfield has been a mess the past two years, and the team can only dream right now of somebody being good enough to block Martin's path.

I normally like your stuff, Jamie, but strongly disagree here. In order… You can disagree about rating, but adding a catcher is a VERY pressing need. Jeffers is the only one on the 40-man, and the MILB options don’t scream “Ready!” yet. My personal order would be #1 Starting Pitcher, OF (D and bat), Catcher (maybe bumping up to #2 if he can really hit). Bullpen depth is addressed by adding a #1 SP (pushing a starter into the ‘pen and a marginal arm to the minors). We absolutely do not need a long term solution at SS; we have Lewis back mid-season, and Lee possibly forcing his way to the majors around the same time. Signing a long term contract to the position our top two prospects play is a waste of money. Jeffers absolutely has NOT shown he can be a primary catcher. He’s been injured, people bring up his ability to throw out base-stealers, because he has been dreadful at it, and only if you cherry-pick a few 10 game stretches can you say his bat even belongs in the majors (his career batting average is .210, his 2022 was .208). He has promise, but since his 26 game debut in 2020, Ryan has really struggled to hit even .200. He should be a solid roster likelihood, but not THE answer at catcher. The third point misses the point that catching is now a time-share position. We NEED a catcher even with Jeffers, and the team gets much better if that catcher (Contreras? Vasquez?) can take the pressure off of Jeffers, pick up (legitimate) DH at-bats, and help in Ryan’s development. Get a real player, and let their play decide who is “primary”.

Bassit, but only if they fail on Rodon.