Physics Guy

I agree, this would be a great option.

2017 was the season Twins fans have been waiting for. Although 2015 did offer a bit of a respite from several dreary seasons, it didn't feel as sustainable as last year's performance did. There are many reasons to think that the Twins may be on the road to a prolonged run at the playoffs. Our regular lineup has an excellent mix of productive veterans as well as young players establishing themselves, ranking right up there with the productive teams of the early 2000's. With this year's free agent signings, the bullpen has significant depth. This should allow them to bring up youngsters when they are ready rather than forcing them in due to need as we saw at times last year. The rotation has the potential to be solid, with the caveat that the Twins sign or trade for someone at least of the Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn ilk. There is great reason for hope in Twins Territory. With that in mind, I want to take a stab at something I attempted prior to the 2013 season. 2012 saw the Twins finish 66-96 and there was going to be plenty of opportunity for players to come up from the minors in 2013. I made an attempt to predict which players were most likely to come up the the big leagues that season. It was my spin on a Top 10 Prospect list, but focused on who could most help in 2013. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/324/entry-2284-prospects-for-2013/ Jump ahead to 2018 and this becomes a much more challenging task. The 2018 Twins have significantly fewer holes that the 2013 squad. It was a challenge to come up with ten players who have a chance to debut and rank them according to their potential to help this year's team. All players on this list would be making their big league debut. #10) DJ Baxendale - RP - Not a sexy pick to contribute to a deep bullpen, but posted sub-3.00 ERA seasons the past two years. I could see the Twins bringing him up as a long reliever during a stretch where the bullpen is overworked. The Twins used 21 pitchers as only relievers last year. #9) Mason Melotakis - RP - Could this be the year he finally breaks through? Melotakis will be 27 this year and while he continues to have relatively high K rates he needs to step up soon or he will be passed up. He is already well down the list of LH options. #8) Zack Littell - SP - Littell makes the list only because the Twins used 15 different starters last year. If it happens again, Littell likely makes his debut. He doesn't have the ceiling that some other prospects in the organization may have, but he has shown continued improvement as he's worked his way through the minors. In 2017 he went 19-1, stuck out 142 in 157 IP and had a 2.12 ERA. He only reached AA for the second half on the season, so a debut would most likely occur after the All-Star Break. #7) LaMonte Wade - OF - Wade is the first non-pitcher on the list, mainly because of the youth and strength of the Twins lineup. I just don't anticipate much opportunity for players to move up this year. If the Twins were to need an OF, Wade would likely be the first option among players who would be making their MLB debut. I could see it happening in the second half of the season. Wade appears to be a similar player to Zach Granite, albeit with more upside. 6) Tyler Kinley - RP - This comes with the assumption that the Twins either decide to keep him on the 25 man roster (doubtful) or are able to work out a trade to keep him. He assumes the position Josh Bard may have had if still with the Twins. I still don't quite get exposing Bard when it is believed Kinley has similar velocity but with less command. 5) Tyler Jay - RP - Jay would most likely be higher on this list, but health has limited his progression through the system. Jay is the first person on this list that I think is likely to get a callup this year. 4) Jake Reed - RP - Reed is my highest rated reliever on the list. He posted a 2.13 ERA in 37 IP between AA and AAA last year. Given the current makeup of the bullpen, I think he would be next in line after Busenitz, Curtis and Chargois (all have already debuted) to get a promotion to the Twins in 2018. Given Chargois' health history, he may only be behind Busenitz and Curtis. 3) Nick Gordon - Infield - Gordon is the only other non-pitcher on the list and would likely fill any needs for an infielder at Target Field. The only other option I could see making a debut this season is Levi Michael and I think we all know what the chances of that are. Gordon has not lit the world on fire thus far in the minors, nor has he been terrible. He just continues to climb up the ranks, spending his entire age-21 season at AA posting a .749 OPS. 2) Fernando Romero - SP - Romero has possibly the highest upside of starters in AA and AAA in the organization. He went 11-9 with a 3.53 ERA and 120 K in 125 IP this past year at Chattanooga. Health seems to be the only thing holding him back. He could use some seasoning a AAA before his debut sometime this season. 1) Stephen Gonsalves - SP - Gonsalves has the most experience of all the prospect starting pitchers and arguably the best production. He has a career ERA of 2.39 and has maintained high K rates throughout the his ascent through the minors. He got a taste of AAA this past season and will likely start there in 2018. He could be the first option for a callup, but might have to wait in line behind Trevor May, Aaron Slegers or Felix Jorge before debuting sometime after June 1. He is also the most likely player on this list to open the season with the Twins if they don't sign another starting pitcher.

You and me both. I would maybe even settle for a little less...

...nor is $47 million.

I agree with you that the offer is more than I would care to part with, but not that it's better than the Sale trade. Moncada was in the top 5 and Kopech in the top 50 of all prospects. They also got two more prospects, but for a significantly better pitcher who was also on a friendly contract. I've changed my mind from what I said earlier on what I would give up. IMO, Rosario, Polanco, Romero and Mejia is too much. Our cost to get Archer should be less than what Sale cost and if not, move on.

Well then put me in the no thanks group. I'd rather they sign Darvish and keep the prospects, even if Archer is maybe better.

I understand what you are saying, but we are completely speculating since the Rays haven't specifically stated what they want. Is it feasible they would want four players with equal or more controllable service time, including two that would provide significant upgrades over their likely current starters.

The difference here is that Archer isn't being paid a high salary.

Are you assuming that the Rays would prefer Gordon, Kiriloff, Gonsalves and Romero? I don't think the Twins have a package of similar players that have no service time that would be of equal value to Grosario, Polanco, Mejia and Romero.

I think you are undervaluing Mejia. When the Twins traded for him he was regarded as a likely 4th starter with 3rd starter upside. He is clearly not the prime asset in my proposed trade, but would give them a replacement starter along with the higher upside Romero. Which of the suggested players is not young and controllable? None are arbitration eligible this season and all but Romero are potential starters for their team this year. I also think there is value to the Rays in trading away Span's contract.

I would give up Rosario, Polanco, Meijia and Romero for Archer and Span. Other than lower level additions, I wouldn’t be willing to give up more than that. They are getting 3-4 guys who start on their club.

Agreed. As son as I posted I realized I should have put it here.

I'd rather have Frazier, but both might push Sano to DH more than I'm happy with.

By the way, you can dream on about Colome getting that kind of return.

After thinking about it, Colome probably can't be included in that deal. Taking on Span's contract has to be worth something as it might allow them to sign a 1B. The Twins would be giving up 3 players who would be starters for the Rays. What about swapping Romero for Garver? Rosario for Kepler?

After reading John Bonnes' post regarding trade assets, I started contemplating a trade in the current environment. I would be willing to give up significant assets to get Archer, especially if we can sign a FA starter as well. TB would most likely want young SP. They also have a hole on the right side of the infield. Brad Miller was awful last year and they aren't going to pay Logan Morrison. I have to think they would like to dump Span's contract and he could still be useful for a couple of years as a corner OF. So here is my proposal: Twins get: Archer, Alex Colome, Denard Span Rays get: Kepler, Polanco, Meijia, Garver,+? If we can somehow get Darvish or more likely Cobb, we have: C - Castro, resign Gimenez? 1B - Mauer 2B - Dozier SS - Escobar, Adrianza (until Gordon is ready) 3B - Sano LF - Span CF - Buxton RF - Rosario Grossman, Granite, IF? Rotation - Archer, Darvish/Cobb, Santana, Berrios, Gibson Bullpen - Rodney, Colome, Hildenberger, Rogers, Pressly, Duffey, Busenitz

I think this is a fair ranking of tradeable assets to the Rays. I'm OK with leaving the vets off because they won't be part of any trade for Archer. I would say Sano should be higher than Lewis. He has proven much more than Lewis and is only dinged because of health issues in my mind. The only players I wouldn't move for Archer are the top four. Any others are fair game in my opinion.

But adding two sufficiently large values of 2 can give you 5. My Physics students hate that.

David Schoenfield posted hsi way-too-early power rankings for next year last night: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21139850/ranking-mlb-teams-ahead-offseason He has the Twins at #19, which seems way-too-low for our favorite team. He obviously thinks the Twins over-performed last year. I would have had them in the 10-12 range.

Since it doesn't appear we can get appropriate value for Dozier, I would be in favor of trading Polanco if he can be a substantial piece in acquiring a pitcher at least at the Santana level. While I applaud Polanco's work at SS this year, I am still somewhat skeptical that he can remain there. He would be better served at 2B. As long as Dozier is around, Polanco won't be playing 2B. Cash him in for something we need if the feeling is that Gordon will be ready sometime in 2018. Esco and Adrianza, or a FA signing, can handle SS until he is ready.

As far as having a rotation better than Boston, NYY and Cleveland, I'm not sure that is possible without major turnover throughout the roster. I think it's possible our offense can make up some of the difference. We were behind the Yankees, basically even with Cleveland and ahead of the Red Sox in scoring. With continued improvement in our younger players (nearly every starter), it reasonable that we can be one of the top two or three in the AL. If we get our pitching to allow between 700 and 750, we probably win 90+ games. Cleveland gave up nearly 100 less runs than the #2 team in the AL. What did that get them? In my estimation we just need to get in the top half of the AL to have a good chance. If this year's playoffs have shown anything, even really good pitchers can get ripped.

I would be happy if the Twins signed Alex Cobb for anything at 4/60M or less. I don't think they will win the bidding war for Darvish, but they should at least make an offer. Arrieta's regression the past two years scares me. Contrary to some things I've read here, I prefer Cobb to Lynn, especially if he is the cheaper option. Their numbers appear quite similar and I prefer the pitcher who has thrown in the AL East vs the NL Central. Santana, Cobb, Berrios plus two of Gibson, Meijia, Gonsalves, Slegers is good by me. Then add 1-2 RP's.

Except it was the prudent thing to do in my opinion. They took the year to evaluate the system and decide what they needed to do. The fact that they traded for Garcia during the season should be a good indicator that they realize they need to add a starter. I don't mind that they didn't spend big last year. Rich Hill was the only starter I would have contemplated and he was resigning with LA. Adding a bullpen arm is the only thing I would have done differently, and that is with hindsight.

Unfortunately, too often in the past this was true. I don't think we have enough information yet to say the same of our current FO. I hope they have a different MO.

Agree, it's the cost of doing business. They clear $13.8M in Santiago and Perkins. They can add Cobb or Lynn at $16M per without raising the payroll dramatically. Yes, they have others due some increases, but not dramatic ones (thinking Dozier, Gibson and some of the relievers if they choose to keep them around). A team on the upswing should be willing to take on salary to take the next step. Mauer's $23M per year is done after 2018 and Santana's 13.5 potentially as well, although I hope the $14m option in '19 is exercised. Hughes' 13.2M comes off the books after '19 as well. They have some flexibility. I'm going to ammend my earlier post, I want them to go after Darvish, Cobb and Lynn in that order. I'd be happy with any of them as an upgrade that doesn't cost us prospects. If they can't get one, then they have to find an upgrade in the trade market. I'd be willing to trade Romero or Gonsalves, but not both. I don't want to trade Gordon because he appears to be a true SS. I want to trade Dozier or Polanco since I'm not convinced Polanco stays at SS. If a Dozier trade can't be consummated, then trade Polanco. I'd have to think he performed well enough this year to raise his trade value. Dozier almost has to go to a contender whereas Polanco might intrigue a rebuilding team not wanting to take on salary.