Physics Guy

I don't get the angst here at all. There are still a large number of FA available at any position the Twins are considering. Happ is not a sexy signing, but the Twins are not paying Trevor Bauer money and the difference for the rest is not that great. 11M for Kluber or 8M for Happ? Since we are talking about their #4 starter, I'll take Happ. I also like the fact that he is a lefty. For those dreaming of another signing for the rotation to push Happ down, I think you should stay asleep longer and enjoy the dream. Honestly, the rotation wasn't the problem in the postseason. Money saved by signing Happ can hopefully shore up holes at DH, IF and RH relief. If all the options to fill those holes disappear, then I will start to worry.

Ugh is right. Please........no........

Hendriks turned the corner when he was released and Toronto stuck him in the bullpen. The following year, 2015, his average fastball velo went from 91.3 to 94.9. the past two years he has bumped that average velo into the 96+ range. The Twins certainly could have given him some time in the bullpen before deciding to cut bait. Hindsight is 20/20 but I wish they had at tried him a bit out there. Sometimes it takes a change of scenery for a player to figure things out.

Because of his down year last year, I'd think he'd be relatively cheap to acquire, especially with the Cubs cutting salary. He might just be a rental player, but that's OK if the cost isn't high. If he has a good year, maybe he's willing to sign for a reasonable contract. I doubt he's going to get anywhere near what he would have 2-3 years ago if he had been a FA. Some of the luster has worn off.

Totally agree. I don't think there is a chance, but he would check a ton of boxes. As Ted Schwerzler wrote, another option that can probably be acquired relatively cheaply, if the Darvish trade is any indication, is Kris Bryant. He could play 3B, 1B and LF. He would check many of the same boxes as DJ. Again, the only other position needed would be a middle IF utility player.

I've made mention of this on at least a couple of threads, but I really think the Twins should at least explore LeMahieu as a Util/DH player. MLBTradeRumors estimated him at 4/68, which is well below the 5/100M that is rumored to be his asking price. I could see a 5/85-90M contract midpoint working for the Twins. He would likely be a step down from Cruz's past two years, but might not be a downgrade from what we should expect from Cruz this year. The big advantage I see with LeMahieu is that he could play 20-30 games in relief of Donaldson, Arraez and Sano, all of whom have had a difficult time staying healthy. Even if DJ was a step down from Cruz, I think the added benefit of keeping the others healthy in the lineup could be a net positive for the Twins. The Twins would only need to then sign a true backup SS for the hitting side of the roster. Ultimately I don't think the Twins can outbid NY if they want to bring him back, but they should be exploring this option.

While Cruz has been an integral part of the lineup the past two years, I don't agree entirely that their lineup will suffer without him. Using the committee role could allow our regulars to stay healthy and stay in the lineup. Part of it depends on who they sign instead of Cruz. If they don't bring back Cruz, they can sign somebody with positional versatility. It also would allow for strategic use of Cave and Rooker for lefty and right matchups. It will force Baldelli to be more creative with his lineups, but it doesn't have to be a negative. I've come around to believing the Twins will be fine letting Cruz go if he requires more than a 1 year, 14-15M contract.

I think Cody was pretty spot-on with his original analysis. I see most "important" as meaning players we have concerns about and need to perform at a level they are capable of. #1 would definitely be Buxton for me. I don't know the exact numbers, but the Twins are a different team when he plays. I think it was something like a .700 club with him and .500 without. #2 for me would also be Donaldson. We need him to play 130-140 games at 3B. His defense and patience/production in the lineup would be pretty hard to replace. #3 is where I would diverge from Cody. While Berrios is definitely important to the Twins success, I have little doubt he will perform at least at the level of his last three seasons. I would say either Polanco or Arraez would be #3 for me, mainly due to health. If the Twins do not sign a clear upgrade over Adrianza at Util, Polanco being able to play a healthy 140-150 games at SS is crucial to the Twins success. The same can essentially be said for Arraez at 2B. If he can play 140-150 healthy games at 2B, he should be our full-time lead-off hitter. Neither player currently has a likely replacement on the roster. The LF and DH spots don't concern me as much as they have many options on the 40-man to fill those if needed.

That being said, this doesn't really fit the original idea of this thread, which is "value" shopping.

I went with the MLBTradeRumors estimate as I hadn't seen any info on his negotiations. He may want 5/$100 M, but that doesn't mean he gets it. The fact that he hasn't signed yet, leads me to believe that the Yankees are playing hardball with him. I would be willing to add a year and maybe go to 5/$90M (1 additional year and +$1M per season). He is a GG 2B who can also play the corners. I think his versatility would be a perfect fit and suspect his skill-set would age well (age 32-36 seasons). Ultimately, we can't win a battle with the Yankees if they really want him.

Geez man, you seem a bit tense about the Twins' inactivity thus far. It's early yet and only the Padres have done anything significant. The top 4 FA haven't signed and the market starts at the top. Everyone waits to see what happens at the top before signing. You can blame MLB for the Cruz situation. Until they decide on DH in the NL, he's sitting tight. He has no leverage unless NL teams come into play. Here are my comments on a few items from your first post. Yes, it is possible Berrios and Buxton are gone when they become FA. If they are worth it, I have confidence the Twins will offer a market contract. It's not like they haven't tried to extend Berrios. If you think they can't replace Rosario, I'm probably wasting my time here. He is a slightly above average corner OF and the Twins have plenty of depth there. I'd argue a platoon of Cave/Rooker could produce similar results and I suspect Kirilloff is ultimately the replacement. He has higher upside than Rosario and the platoon combo. Putting Arraez/Polanco at leadoff and Kepler in Rosario's spot in the lineup also takes care of Rosario's spot in the lineup. So Pineda is the most reliable starter the last two years? Sitting for 60 games is reliable? Here are the stats from the last two years: Pineda - 172 IP, 3.92 ERA, 165 K Berrios - 263.1 IP, 3.76 ERA, 263 Berrios will be 27 this year, Pineda 32. Lastly, a straight two-year contract for Cruz scares the hell out of me. I'd offer him no more than 1 year at 15M. If he doesn't take it move on. I'd actually prefer the Twins go after LeMahieu at something like 5/80M. He could spell three positions where he potentially have health issues (1B, 2B, 3B) and could take a significant number of AB at DH. He could be the super utility guy we hoped Marwin would be. I get the feeling the Twins are waiting to see what the market does before investing. I suspect they are one of the few buyers on the market.

What about DJ at 4/68M as projected by MLBTradeRumors? We would have to let Cruz go, but it would give us much more versatility and theoretically doesn't cost much more than Cruz. He could be the true super utility player we hoped Marwin could be. He has played significant time at 2B, 3B and 1B. He could help keep Donalson, Arraez and Sano healthy as well as take a significant number of AB at DH. I love Cruz, but I think this is better for the team long-term.

Yes to this. I don't think Polanco is a starting SS on a WS-caliber team. As a 2b, sure, but Arraez appears to be the better hitter. I would prefer the Twins sign Semien, Gregorius or Simmons to be their SS and use Polanco and the Util player that many have suggested Kike Hernandez for. I suspect one of the SS will be obtainable at a very reasonable and short contract. I don't like the idea of trading Arraez. He is the "tough out" in the lead off position. I really hope Rocco puts Arraez in the lead-off position and leaves him there. His OBP is nearly identical vs LHP and RHP, but he slugs much higher against RHP.

I was having a chat with my high school-aged son today about pitches and the topic of the screwball came up. I recalled that Fernando Valenzuela threw it. That led me to look up his stats for his rookie season when he won the ROY and CY awards. He was 13-7 with 11 CG and 8 SHO in 192 IP. Now that doesn't seem like a ton of innings, but that was the strike year of 1981 and the Dodgers only played 110 games. He did his damage in 25 starts. That reminded me (from my heydays of baseball card collecting) of the 1980 Oakland A's staff of Rick Langford, Mike Norris, Matt Keough, Steve McCatty and Brian Kingman. If I recall correctly, this is about the time teams started to switch from 4-man to 5-man rotations. The A's used 5 starters, but they still put up big innings. Those 5 starters completed (in order), 28, 24, 20, 11 and 11 games. I think that maybe their craziest stat may come from the team leader in saves, Bob Lacey (6 SV). He pitched in 47 games with one start, which happened to be a complete game shutout. Their total staff completed 94 games, whereas the entirety of MLB completed 45 in 2019. I'm not here to rip on today's state of affairs for pitching. I'm just pretty amazed at how much pitching has changed in my time of following baseball. Bullpens are much different than when I was a kid and pitchers throw, on average, quite a bit harder than when I was a kid. I'm not sure that there's a point to this post, other than I wanted to share those crazy stats from '80 and '81.

Well how about we ask them to spend savings from previous years from the baseball team? It's my opinion that the Twins have rarely exceeded that 50ish% of revenues that people talk about and more often are well under it. I'm fine with saving some $$ when you are rebuilding and aren't quite ready for young players to take off (for example 2013-2016), but when we are contenders let's use those savings to get over the hump.

I think the Twins must do their due diligence on the SS market, if for nothing else because of Polanco's continued ankle issues. He is average at SS on a good day and would be better as a middle infield backup that plays roughly as much as Marwin has the last two years. He would give them insurance for Arraez's health issues as well. The SS for the last 5 world series winners: Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and Javy Baez. We need a better SS defensively who can hit as well as Polanco did in 2019. I agree with many of the posters here that the OP's package of Arraez, Lewis and Enlow is a bit much. I think the Indians and Rockies are going to get less than that for a one year rental. Just look at what the Orioles got for Machado.

Nelson Cruz played 120 games in 2019 and isn't getting younger. Maybe he plays 130, but he needs days off as well. Plenty of room to get Donaldson some games there as well.

Per ESPN: Minnesota Twins communications boss Dustin Morse has been awarded the Robert O. Fishel Award for Public Relations Excellence by Major League Baseball. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30532543/minnesota-twins-dustin-morse-given-fishel-award-pr-excellence-mlb

I don't think this is an outrageous idea. I would not move Sano to DH full-time yet. He was passable/average at 1B in his first season. Keep players in the field as long as you can. While I love having Cruz in the 3 spot in the order, I think rotating players through the DH spot to keep the healthy would be a wise option as well. Donaldson is still a stellar 3B, but putting him at DH every 4 days might help keep him in the lineup. Also, using a rotation of Kirilloff, Rooker and Cave at DH wouldn't be horrible either. We have options and aren't over a barrel in the Cruz negotiations. If he insists on more than $15M or two years it might be wise to move on.

Galvis and Gyorko would be my preference, although I think Galvis might go to a team like Baltimore that needs a starting SS.

It seems as if this discussion is all for naught due to the Phillies owner's proclamation that they are not trading Wheeler. But for the sake of argument, this might not be much different than a FA signing. If there are teams that are really in a big financial crunch, the cost of acquisition (in terms of prospects) might be minimal if the acquiring team takes on the entire financial burden. If the Twins are in good financial shape, these are the types of trades they should be looking to make.

In addition, Pineda is only signed through 2021. Berrios is only under team control through 2022. This would add more stability to the rotation. I know finances aren't what they were last year, but if you were willing to go after Wheeler last year, why not this year? They cleared significant payroll from last year.

Mauer had also established a much stronger track record with the bat in the minors. That along with a somewhat lost season last year for Lewis, I'm not sure it would be wise from teh get-go to have Lewis in the majors. Let him show something for the first half of the season.

They could handle this, but it would likely mean DH by committee and likely only adding one Util and one RP. I'm not sure they should, but it is doable. His salary is only about $5M/yr more than Odorizzi got last year. If they can do it without losing Duran, Balazovic, Kirilloff, Larnach or Rooker, I think they should strongly consider it. Now it sounds as though the reports were erroneous, but these are the types of deals the Twins should be looking at. Find teams that are needing to dump payroll and add quality players with minimal cost outside of absorbing the salary.

Buster Olney is reporting that the Phillies are open to trading Zack Wheeler due to the financial crunch caused from the pandemic. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30462167/sources-philadelphia-phillies-open-trade-offers-right-hander-zack-wheeler The Twins were one of the top suitors for Wheeler last year. The main reason the Twins were not able to acquire him was due to his desire to stay on the on the east coast. I know he might not be excited about going to the Twins, but it can't hurt that he would be going to a contender. I don't think the Phillies are contenders any time soon. If the Twins would be willing to take on the whole contract, the prospect cost might not be very high. I'm skeptical the Twins want to add that contract this year, but I would be a strong "Let's go for it" statement.