Physics Guy

Correct

Forgot to mention, Haley makes it as insurance against Hughes. We need somebody who can eat innings.

Rotation: Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes and May. Berrios first call up, maybe Vogelsong in AAA if he accepts assignment. Bullpen: Kintzler, Pressly, Belsile, Chargois, Haley, Rogers and Breslow. Duffey either goes to AAA to work on a third pitch or is converted to a reliever (which is what I would prefer). Tonkin becomes AAA filler if he goes unclaimed. Boshers and O'Rourke are filler if Breslow or Rogers struggle. O'Rourke is a LOOGY and a team fighting to get back to .500 can't afford that, especially with the rotation we've dealt with lately.

So was Jerry Ryan a way around the filter? Now I understand why I saw Jerry Ryan referenced in threads early on. I was confused and took it as some type of inside joke/slam. Anyways, I am very happy that Brock joined the founders. While I came here for the articles, I found the forums very enjoyable as well. There was a stretch where the forum was a little rough and I am so thankful for Glunn and the rest of the mods for bringing a level of civility. I came close to losing interest in the site. Now, I probably spend more time on the site seeing how my comments have been received and looking to engage in more discussion.

I guess that depends on your definition of "really struggling". It would be a very nice problem to have (as opposed everyone struggling, besides Santana). I honestly think everyone (Santana, Gibson, Santiago and Hughes) have the capability of being 4.00 ERA starters. The odds of all four of them achieving it, not likely. One of the four will falter. Berrios not being in camp during the WBC likely has him starting in AAA.

I get what you are saying on Berrios, but I would be OK with it if May is ready to start the season in the rotation. I will be shocked if Santana, Gibson, Santiago and Hughes aren't the top four in the rotation. Since May is older, I would rather see him in the rotation than JB. Berrios comes up by May if one of the first four falters or is injured. Conversely, it sounds like May has an option left, so maybe we start May in AAA so he can work his way back into starting again. I think Vogelsong is AAA filler. I see Duffey's future as a setup man and Haley as the long reliever.

Couldn't agree more, especially since Gleeman essentially quit blogging on the Twins (can't blame him). Thanks so much to the creators and all who contribute to great debate that goes on in the forums.

Isn't Palka's floor never making it to MLB? He's probably better than ABW, but not by much. ABW will probably never see time in the majors. I get the sense that Palka will get a chance with the Twins, but he better take advantage of it when he gets it. I doubt he gets to hang around as much as Vargas has. From what I've read about Kirilloff, his defense is not an issue and may be above average, not true of Palka. Kirilloff had a 13.7% K rate vs. 32.7% for Palka. That's a huge difference.

I totally get the disappointment expressed on this thread. It's hard not to be after the past 6 years. I remember a thread two or three years ago discussing the Twins being in contention by 2018. That doesn't seem likely at this point, but not out of the realm of possibility. For me, it all comes down to the development of our young players. That is what this year should be entirely about. We need to figure out who can be part of the solution. At catcher, the FO made a good decision in signing Castro that should help the pitching staff. Either Murphy or Gimenez should be the backup, allowing Garver to play most of the games at AAA. This is a positive change. I've stated my opinion on several threads that 1B & DH should be covered by Mauer, Vargas and Park. Park and Vargas should face the tough lefties. IMO we need to see what they can do rather than sign a DH. No reason to make a move here. 2B and SS is where I am disappointed, but I understand what the FO has done. I wanted an IF of Escobar/Aybar SS and Polanco at 2B. Polanco scares me a bit at SS. Hopefully they can flip Dozier for at least two good prospects during the season. I am happy the Twins are giving 3B to Sano. Keep him at 3B as long as he can be serviceable there. Yes, he will eventually be a 1B or DH. He's too young to concede that yet. I love the defense that an OF of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler can provide. I am starting to be skeptical that Rosario can be a full-time starter, but I want him to be given every opportunity to see if he can. I would have liked a better 4th OF defensively than Grossman, but don't see and RH FA that interest me. I don't disagree that the bullpen could use another veteran, but am OK going with the kids. As KLaw has stated, there probably isn't a team with more MLB ready RP in the minors. Kintzler and Pressly are probably my only locks. Then just run out whoever is producing among Duffey, Tonkin, Rogers, O'Rourke, Chargois, Melotakis, Hildenberger, Burdi and Reed. They have many options. Wouldn't mind seeing them sign Blanton. Obviously the rotation needs to improve. Unfortunately, there wasn't anything available in FA that really moves the needle for me. Jason Hammel is still available and I wouldn't argue with signing him. As bad as they were last year, I think the pitchers they currently have are capable of getting a 4.00-4.50 ERA fairly easily. Santana is likely to have a sub 4 ERA. I think a healthy Gibson throwing to Castro gives him a chance to be closer to 4 than 5. He was arguably their best pitcher in 2015. Hughes will get a chance and if he has regained his velocity can be a 4.00 ERA pitcher. Trevor May's last 9 starts before being moved to the BP he threw 50.1 IP, 47K/10BB and a 3.75 ERA. Santiago had 4 straight seasons below 4 ERA prior to last year. If any of them fail we have Berrios and Meija in AAA. Gonsalves could be ready by mid-season. It isn't sexy, but I think their rotation should give them a chance. Their primary focus should be to acquire high upside SP prospects in any trade. Edit: I expect Haley to be in the pen.

After thinking about the Castro signing, I think he will help Gibson as much or more than anybody else on the staff. Gibson seems to have a habit of nibbling on the edges of the zone and his walk rate increased last year. Maybe Castro can get that one extra strike to help get Gibson our of those big innings and help him be more like the 2015 Gibson. If that is the case, I can see 200 innings from him.

It looks like Feliz is off the board as a possible addition. Sounds like 5.35M for one year from the Brewers with 1.5M in incentives. Seems to me the Twins could have afforded that. Makes me think Twins are going to roll with their internal options, probably across the board. I am skeptical that they make any more changes.

Even getting something close to 2015 would be a huge improvement over most of what took the mound last season.

Is there any value in trading Polanco? Maybe include him with Santana?

They should be looking to trade any of those players at any point during this season, not just if they get off to a bad start.

Can you point me to where I would see these defensive metrics? I'm not sure why the defense should have been so poor in 2016 as compared to 2015. Middle IF is also my biggest concern if Dozier sticks around since it likely means Polanco starts the year at SS. One positive is that all of those young players at least stand a chance at improving their defense. If I remember correctly, Kepler wasn't rated very well. In watching him, I have a hard time believing he won't at least be average in RF.

Which it appears they may be content to do unless the Twins take the offer they've been given.

I will go on record as saying I very much want the Twins to trade Dozier. Trading him for SP prospects could help improve an area that has hurt the Twins for much of the recent past. At this point, the Twins have to realize that the market isn't what they had hoped it would be, but I also don't want to trade Dozier for one pitcher who hasn't proven anything more than Berrios. I am OK with the Twins walking away from a JDL+filler trade. It is very possible they may regret it, but it is also possible the Dodgers may decide that they need to upgrade their offer sometime in the next month. I am OK with gambling that the market improves even if the downside is that they don't trade Dozier at all. I support Willinghammer's statement that the Twins' rotation should improve next year without major changes. Their starting staff in 2015 produced an ERA just above 4.00 with Gibson 194 IP, Pelfrey 164 IP, Hughes 155 IP, Milone 128 IP, Santana 108 IP, May 83 IP (as a starter) an Duffey 58 IP. Outside of Gibson having his best season, nobody had a great year (maybe Duffey but only for 58 IP). I think that some combination of Sanana, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes, May, Berrios and Meija has a decent chance to produce between a 4 and 4.50 ERA this coming season.

Yes, we probably disagree. Shouldn't LA be looking for a way to improve their WS chances? Outside of two years of control, Dozier's fit gives them exactly what they should be looking for IMO. If he is still producing in two years, they can resign him since they will have a number of large contracts coming off the books at that time. This trade just makes too much sense, I just with there was one other team out there that would increase the demand for Dozier enough that our FO could find a trade they can accept.

Fair enough, but who do you think could become available that you think has higher value? I'm not sure I can think of anybody that would have more control, would be made available in trade and would produce near Dozier's level.

My impression was that the Dodgers probably would avoid Kinsler due to their impending luxury tax situation. Kinsler would certainly fit the "more of a track record" your mentioned in a previous post more than Dozier, but he is 36 I believe. Utley would fit that bill as well, but the Dodgers seem to pretty clearly be interested in an upgrade from him. Isn't three years of 20+ HR and .750+ OPS a pretty good track record? The other guys that would fit a longer track record are most likely not available.

Are you really trying to argue that Dozier = Nunez/Coomer/Suzuki???? If you want hyperbole, throw in Dave Engle as well.

Considering how much I see people arguing semantics in these forums, I'll throw out one as well. I would change the word "many" in the last sentence to "some". Vazquez was good, but I wouldn't call him HOF worthy.

He could probably still be a LOOGY. He's only 59 (retired from Twins at 46).

If talking about "early" arrivals, meaning sooner than expected, I would say Vielma or Gordon. I don't have a ton of faith in Polanco at SS. (I also don't have a ton of faith that Molitor agrees with me, but that's another story.) Vielma and Gordon would seem the logical options if he doesn't pan out (besides Escobar of course). The same could happen if Dozier is traded and Esco doesn't work out as a full-time SS. As a fourth OF, I could definitely see Granite making it a little sooner than expected. From what I've read he is a solid CF which would make him a good option.

Bourjos only helps the pitchers if Buxton isn't playing, which should be very rarely. I can handle Rosario or Kepler in CF for a handful of games that Buxton doesn't play. I'm hoping we have a better hitter as our 4th OF.