Physics Guy

His OPS+ is comparable to the guys you suggest we replace him with. The team is not going to sit Joe just to replace him with a guy that won't out produce him. Somebody on this team needs to get on base in front of Dozier, Sano, Kepler, Vargas. Joe is our logical 2nd batter. We already shoe horn Dozier in lead off when he'd be better further down the lineup. We can't have all of our batters be low OBP/ high K guys.

Not true. He played more innings at SS in the minors than any other. The problem was he didn't play any SS last year when he started at Rochester. http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=polanc001jor

I'm not sure why I continue to see comments like this. I understand the angst that Joe does not put up numbers people want to see at 1B or for a guy that makes $23 million per year. He was number 4 in OPS+ on the squad. Two of the guys above him are from other run producing spots (2B and 3B). There is very little difference between the OPS of MAuer, Carter and Napoli. The Twins already have enough guys that strike out a ton. Vargas had a higher OPS than all three of them (albeit in 177 PA). Mauer is not a problem in the lineup or in the field. Give him 500-550 PA and sit him against guys he's struggle against. Give most of the rest of the DH and 1B PAs to Vargas and some to Park. If you assume about 1300 PA between 1B and DH, IMO Mauer should get about 550, Vargas 450 and Park 300. I don't see the Twins winning the division this year, so why not exhaust internal options this year? If we find they can't hack it, then sign a veteran bat next year when they theoretically might be closer to contention.

Last time a Joe Smith was signed in this town it set the franchise back for a long time.

I can vouch for that thought.

I think you misinterpreted what he wrote. He said Kiriloff has the chance to be the best prospect in the system if he improves his pitch selection. Here is what he said about Gonsalves: "Gonsalves still has a 45 fastball and a plus changeup, although he also has some deception in his delivery for the fastball to play up, but he has added a cutter now that has a chance to end up an average pitch, thrown at 84-87 mph. It's below average at the moment, but he just started throwing it within the past year, and I would bet on that over the big 72 mph curveball he babies to get it to break correctly." That gives him a chance at three average or better offerings. On Stewart: "He’s an outstanding athlete, his arm works and he’s been healthy the last two years, so it’s all untapped potential here. But it’s time for him to become a well-rounded pitcher who sets hitters up and uses his whole repertoire so he can reach his ceiling as at least a mid-rotation starter. If not, it’s not clear what his role will be, because missing as few bats as h does may not even work in the bullpen." Your OP that says he sees no role for Stewart is not accurate. You don't put guys in the top 100 that have no role. The Twins were rated #11 overall, so I think they are likely to have a couple others on the list, maybe three in Gordon, Jay and Romero.

Possibly Romero as well if this quote from his most recent chat is any indicator: Dusty: Do you think Fernando Romero of the Twins has a good chance of becoming a frontline pitching prospect this year? Klaw: Might already be one. Also from the chat: Anonymous: Of all your farm system rankings, name a couple of systems that have the best group of reliever prospects. Klaw: Twins come to mind immediately. Chargois, Reed, Melotakis, Burdi if healthy, etc.

I read an article linked to Ken Rosenthal's Twitter feed: http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/los-angeles-dodgers-second-baseman-brian-dozier-javier-baez-mark-trumbo-notes-011917 Here is a quote: "Forsythe, perhaps, is a more realistic target for the Dodgers — he is under control for only two more seasons, and the Rays, as they showed in their recent trade of left-hander Drew Smyly to the Mariners, are forever open to acquiring younger talent. The difference with Forsythe is that the Rays cannot easily replace him; with Smyly, they dealt from a position of strength." I started thinking that maybe we could do a smaller three-way trade that would give the Rays a replacement. Here's the meat of my proposal: Twins give up Polanco and receive Stewart from LA Rays give up Forsythe and receive Polanco from MN LA gives up Stewart and receives Forsythe I suspect there would have to be some other smaller pieces (probably from the Twins), but this would seemingly address the issues each team has. I still prefer we trade Dozier, but if we can't I don't think Polanco fits as a SS.

We essentially lost Plouffe, Hunter, Suzuki, Hicks, Pelfrey and Millone. We have Vargas/Park to DH to replace Plouffe's numbers (yes we lose D with Sano at 3B), Kepler (.734 OPS) to replace Hunter (.702), Castro to replace Suzuki, Buxton to replace Hicks and whatever fills #4 and #5 in the rotation to replace Millone and Pelfrey. I can't say I'm terribly worried about what we lost. That's not to mention the starts we don't give to Nolasco.

I misunderstood your intention then. My impression of your view was that 70 wins is optimistic, not reasonable.

I was going to remark about this when I saw it earlier today. Considerably different than a recent post about the Baseball America ratings. After listening to that podcast, I was read to see the Twins in the 21-30 range of KLaw's ratings.

You are certainly entitled to your "doomtinted" opinion, but I don't happen to share your particular reality. I don't think it takes high optimism to see 70 wins. You propose 100 losses as more likely than 80 wins. The midpoint between those is 71 wins. They won 59 last year after 83 the previous year. What's the midpoint? Hmmm, that would be 71 wins. I'd say low 70's would be about right and wouldn't require much optimism at all. Any type of improvement from the young hitters and a return to sanity in the rotation makes 80 wins a possibility. At least that's what I see through my rose-tinted glasses

It looks like Feliz is off the board as a possible addition. Sounds like 5.35M for one year from the Brewers with 1.5M in incentives. Seems to me the Twins could have afforded that. Makes me think Twins are going to roll with their internal options, probably across the board. I am skeptical that they make any more changes.

Even getting something close to 2015 would be a huge improvement over most of what took the mound last season.

I have seen enough from Vargas to think he warrants a chance to get 450-500 AB this year. He's had decent numbers in partial play over the last three years. It is not easy for a young player to come up and not get consistent AB's. This is the perfect year to give Vargas a shot and if he isn't successful, put Park in as the DH. I would prefer a platoon system where Mauer, Vargas and Park fill the 1B/DH slots. Sit Mauer at least 1-2 times a week, especially against tough LHP.

Nope, it simply means I would rather give the guys we have a chance than to give up a high draft pick to sign Trumbo for money that would be better spent elsewhere.

Is there any value in trading Polanco? Maybe include him with Santana?

They should be looking to trade any of those players at any point during this season, not just if they get off to a bad start.

Can you point me to where I would see these defensive metrics? I'm not sure why the defense should have been so poor in 2016 as compared to 2015. Middle IF is also my biggest concern if Dozier sticks around since it likely means Polanco starts the year at SS. One positive is that all of those young players at least stand a chance at improving their defense. If I remember correctly, Kepler wasn't rated very well. In watching him, I have a hard time believing he won't at least be average in RF.

I don't want Trumbo any more than I want Bautista. Too many DH/IB players on this roster already. Give the job to Vargas/Park and improve areas that need it more like SP and RP. This lineup works fine for me if they keep Dozier: Dozier - 2B Mauer - 1B Sano - 3B Vargas/Park - DH Kepler - RF Polanco - SS Rosario - LF Castro - C Buxton - CF If Polanco or Buxton can handle leadoff, put Dozier in the #3 spot and slide everyone down.

Which it appears they may be content to do unless the Twins take the offer they've been given.

I will go on record as saying I very much want the Twins to trade Dozier. Trading him for SP prospects could help improve an area that has hurt the Twins for much of the recent past. At this point, the Twins have to realize that the market isn't what they had hoped it would be, but I also don't want to trade Dozier for one pitcher who hasn't proven anything more than Berrios. I am OK with the Twins walking away from a JDL+filler trade. It is very possible they may regret it, but it is also possible the Dodgers may decide that they need to upgrade their offer sometime in the next month. I am OK with gambling that the market improves even if the downside is that they don't trade Dozier at all. I support Willinghammer's statement that the Twins' rotation should improve next year without major changes. Their starting staff in 2015 produced an ERA just above 4.00 with Gibson 194 IP, Pelfrey 164 IP, Hughes 155 IP, Milone 128 IP, Santana 108 IP, May 83 IP (as a starter) an Duffey 58 IP. Outside of Gibson having his best season, nobody had a great year (maybe Duffey but only for 58 IP). I think that some combination of Sanana, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes, May, Berrios and Meija has a decent chance to produce between a 4 and 4.50 ERA this coming season.

Yes, we probably disagree. Shouldn't LA be looking for a way to improve their WS chances? Outside of two years of control, Dozier's fit gives them exactly what they should be looking for IMO. If he is still producing in two years, they can resign him since they will have a number of large contracts coming off the books at that time. This trade just makes too much sense, I just with there was one other team out there that would increase the demand for Dozier enough that our FO could find a trade they can accept.

Fair enough, but who do you think could become available that you think has higher value? I'm not sure I can think of anybody that would have more control, would be made available in trade and would produce near Dozier's level.

My impression was that the Dodgers probably would avoid Kinsler due to their impending luxury tax situation. Kinsler would certainly fit the "more of a track record" your mentioned in a previous post more than Dozier, but he is 36 I believe. Utley would fit that bill as well, but the Dodgers seem to pretty clearly be interested in an upgrade from him. Isn't three years of 20+ HR and .750+ OPS a pretty good track record? The other guys that would fit a longer track record are most likely not available.