Physics Guy

This is a big reason why I feel we should extend Gibson. There are probably a half dozen SP on the FA market I would want next year besides Gibson. Gibson is a known quantity and was #12 in WAR for SP last year in the American league. No brainer IMO. They should also try to sign whoever is best among Pineda and Odorizzi at the end of the season, assuming they don't both suck. Doesn't the current team have an exclusive negotiating window?

I'd offer Gibson 3yrs at $30-36M. Lance Lynn signed one of the few 3yr (30M) contracts this offseason. He had produced more than Gibson career-wise, but they are on opposite ends of the pendulum swing with Gibson being much better the past 1.5 yrs. The FA market has some talent available in Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale at the top, followed by Verlander (37yrs old), Bumgarner and Porcello. I'm not sure the Twins would be in on any of those. Zack Wheeler was a younger player (30) who should interest the Twins. Most of the FA starters are Gibson's age or older. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/2019-20-mlb-free-agents.html Berrios is the only other one that interests me. He is the most likely bet to maintain his performance IMO. Get him to sign a five year contract to buy out this year, 3 years of arbitration and one year of FA. Might have to overpay a bit, but it would give him financial security and FA for his age 30 season. Sano and Buxton are a no at this point. Their range of possibilities is far to great to extend them. Talk to me again after the season. Rosario and Kepler both have issues. 2nd half 2017 and 1st half 2018 Rosario is an All-Star, but second half he had a .622 OPS. I think he has plateaued. Kepler has the opposite problem, he is maddeningly consistent (3 yrs 95 or 96 OPS+ in a row) and hasn't taken the next step. I wouldn't extend either with Cave, Wade, Rooker, Kirilloff and Larnach all potential replacements. I would be interested in Polanco after this season if he can produce a full season at or near .800 OPS. I still think he ends up at 2B and would love to see one of Lewis, Javier or Gordon push him over there.

Here's the rub though, how does Gibson respond to an extension for Odorizzi and not himself?

Yep, this is pretty much where I am at and don't understand paying Cruz big $$. have them platoon with Cave playing some in the OF and either Kepler or Rosario taking a turn at DH.

First off, I am intrigued by Cave and do want him to get more AB this year if he earns them. His numbers have a SSS feel to them and there are a couple of concerning things about his output last year. His .363 BABIP last year reminds me a bit of 2014 Danny Santana and his 5.8%BB vs 33% K is a little concerning. Meanwhile, Kepler had a career-low BABIP of .236 which smacks of a bit of bad luck. Kepler has 1600 AB in the majors (9.8%BB, 18.7% K), much of them while Cave was still in the minors. They are essentially the same age and Kepler has a longer track record. Kepler had a .745 OPS vs LH last year vs .642 for Cave. If this is about performance, Kepler should bat against lefties more than Cave. Kepler did a good job of improving his platoon splits last year. If he can get his OPS vs RH back up to career avg that puts him around .768 overall, which in not subpar (which he barely is overall for his career).

I'm not opposed to having Kepler play some 1B, although he is arguably the best OF after Buxton. In the same vein as your proposal, you can use Cave/Rosario at DH as a LH option as well. I think the key here is versatility, so I am certainly in favor of letting Kepler play some 1B when it makes sense.

Why has it been up to Sano and Buxton for four years? Four years ago at this time they hadn't even debuted in the major leagues. I'm not sure I understand what you mean by neutral observers. I used Fangraphs projected WAR for 2019 (with some minor adjustments on my part). The four players you mention are projected at 8.3 WAR on Fangraphs, I estimated a little higher at 8.9. I don't have any of them having "big" years. Most of my estimates are within a decimal point or two of Fangraphs, usually I am higher if they have a track record of better or are still young enough to expect improvement. I read your post and using last year's numbers aren't realistic in my opinion. For example, it's easy to project Polanco at 2.5 when he earned 1.3 last year in half a season. I guess the purpose of my original post was to bring some positivity to what the Twins have done, even if it isn't what I had hoped they would. If you chose not to see it that way, that is your choice. I think there are reasons to think with a little bit of positive luck this year, as opposed to what happened last year, the Twins could be in the hunt for the playoffs. If that is the case, then I would hope next year's offseason could look significantly different. I would even argue that it might lead to a deadline deal for a Verlander type deal that the Astros pulled off two seasons ago. I don't blame the FO for not "going for it" when they have significant questions that need to be answered.

I agree that finding 3 starters in one offseason is daunting, but isn't it likely the Twins would want to extend Gibson before the season or sign him as a FA if he has another solid year?

To say that the Twins have been inactive this offseason would not be accurate. In fact, Jim Bowden of The Athletic recently gave the Twins a B- for their offseason moves thus far. No other team in the AL Central received higher than a C. While their moves have filled some of the gaps they have, I have been frustrated by the lack of a big move. Falvey and Levine clearly did not read my 2019 Blueprint. After much thought, I am starting to warm up to the Twins offseason decisions. They have added players with the potential to improve the Twins run-producing ability in CJ Cron and Jonathon Schoop. Each player fills a need on the team, both have 30 HR potential and neither limits future moves from a financial perspective. Schoop clearly had a down season last year, but I would happily take an average of his previous three. The reason for my shift in opinion is tied to WAR. In looking at last year's results, it appears that a team needs to be in the 40+ range for team WAR to be a contender for the playoffs. The moves made by the Twins front office thus far are inching the needle closer all the time. Looking at previous seasons and using predicted WAR for 2019 on Fangraphs, I made what I believe to be reasonable estimates for the Twins in 2019. This comes with the assumption that the Twins will add two more arms to the bullpen. For this exercise I have chosen Joakim Soria and Kelvin Herrera, which seems about right for the Twins. Hitters: Castro/Garver - combined they should be able to produce 2.0 Cron 1.5 Austin 1.0 Schoop 2.5 Polanco 2.6 Adrianza 0.5 Sano 2.5 Rosario 3.2 Buxton 2.4 Kepler 2.5 Cave 1.5 Hitters' Total: 22.2 Pitchers: Berrios 3.2 Gibson 2.7 Odorizzi 2.3 Pineda 1.5 Romero 1.0 Soria 1.2 Herera 0.6 Rogers 1.3 May 0.8 Reed 0.5 Mejia 0.5 Hildenberger 0.4 13th man 0 Pitchers' Total: 16.0 Overall WAR: 38.2 While this doesn't get them above 40, they are within striking range. A few surprises could give them the nudge above 40. The biggest question marks in my estimates belong to Buxton and Sano. This is a big season for both players and the Twins are counting on them being productive players in their lineup. Those two, along with perhaps Berrios, provide the Twins with the most potential star power on the team. I believe that the front office is hedging their bets to see what Buxton and Sano can deliver. If they fail to deliver, I suspect Falvey and Levine sell off pieces (Gibson, Odorizzi, Schoop, relievers) in order to retool for 2020/2021 when Kirilloff, Lewis and Graterol are expected to arrive. If Buxton and Sano are up to the task, the Twins will have the ability to take on salary and add a piece or two to push them towards the playoffs. It may not be the path I would have chosen, but I can at least see some reason in the choices they have made.

I am a proponent of signing Donaldson. The rest are all meh to me.

I very much like the idea of Donaldson, but more as a part-time 3B, 1B and DH. Doing so could help keep him healthy. I will be surprised if he is able to get anywhere near $75M over three years considering he has played 165 games in the past two years.

Yeah, I really don't have a feel for what they will need for Greinke. I did remove a potential 9-10M commitment to Odorizzi in the trade. If we could somehow swap Castro in for Odorizzi, I would love that. I doubt the D-backs would.

Not wild about it either, but they can afford it right now. I want an upgrade and 3yrs/35M per isn't much different than 5yrs/25M per for Corbin/Keuchel.

The Twins are at a crossroads. 2017 provided fans with the promise of the future as they surprised many to make the Wild Card game and expectations were high for 2018. Needless to say, this past season did not end as many hoped, although at 78-84 they only finished 7 games behind 2017. They had a horrible 15 walk-off losses this past year and had to deal with what would kindly be called disappointing seasons from two supposed cornerstones for the future in Buxton and Sano. Improving their "luck" in late innings and improvement from Buxton and Sano could easily lead to a better than .500 record in 2019. With that being said, I want nothing to do with a .500 record. The Twins either need to decide that they have the nucleus of a contender and supplement it with additional pieces or they need to retool for 2020/2021 when the next wave of prospects arrive. They certainly have the payroll flexibility to do so. I do not want to see them just fill holes with mediocre free agents and have a ceiling of 85 wins. While I felt the front office did a good job of adding pieces last offseason to potentially improve the squad, Falvey acknowledged that adding people on 1 and 2 year contracts does not necessarily get them to "buy in" to the team. If they are not going to invest significantly in the team, I would be for doing as Tom Froemming suggested: http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/offseason-blueprint-changing-the-course-r7325 With that in mind, here is my blueprint for the Twins front office in 2019. (Prices for arbitration eligible players is from MLBTR estimates and FA prices are estimated from TD Offseason handbook and John Heyman's article.) The first move for the Twins involves upgrading the rotation. The Twins should attempt to entice the D-backs in to trading Zack Greinke for Jake Odorizzi, Nick Gordon and Stephen Gonsalves. The added salary would be somewhat offset with the departure of Odorizzi who is likely due 9-10M in arbitration. Adding Gio Gonzalez or J.A. Happ would be cheaper secondary options that would put a lefty in the rotation. The are many question marks in the infield and I will start with the assumption that Joe Mauer is going to retire. The Twins will need to fill spots at 1B and either 2B or SS with Jorge Polanco filling the other role. I feel Polanco and the Twins would be better served with a move to 2B. As a result I propose signing Jose Iglesias (3yrs/24M) to improve their defense up the middle. To fill 1B and give the Twins a fallback option at 3B, they should sign Josh Donaldson (3yrs/60M). Playing more at 1B and DH (and subbing at 3B) would hopefully keep Donaldson's potent RH bat in the lineup. Tyler Austin would be the backup 1B and also serve as a DH. Having a potent and deep bullpen seems to be a necessity these days. Riding his best bullpen arms to the point of overuse was one of my biggest criticisms of Paul Molitor. Baldelli needs to be provided with a deeper bullpen. I propose signing David Robertson (2 yrs, 22M) and Joe Kelly (3yrs, 24M). Along with the returning players, this would be the deepest pen they have had in years. These changes would leave the Twins with the following roster: C - Garver (0.6M), Castro (8M) I see this as a platoon favoring Garver. 1B - Donaldson (20M), Austin (0.6M) 2B - Polanco (0.6M) SS - Iglesias (8M), Adrianza (1.8M) 3B - Sano (3.1M) OF - Rosario (5M), Buxton (1.2M), Kepler (3.2M), Cave (0.6M) SP - Greinke (35M), Berrios (0.6M), Gibson (7.9M), Pineda (8M), Romero/Mejia/Stewart/Littell (0.6M) RP - Robertson (11M), Kelly (8M), Reed (8.5M), Rogers (1.6M), May (1.1M), Hildenberger, Moya and Magill (all at 0.6M) They will owe buyouts of 7.95 M for Hughes, Santana and Morrison. That will put the Twins at approximately 145 M, which is just above the median (141M) and mean (139M) payrolls in MLB for 2018. They would have 24.5M coming off the books for 2020 to cover growing payroll for young players. I realize that this is not likely, but it also is not that much more than what they originally committed to 2018. If the Twins are not willing to commit to such a plan, I would much rather they trade players like Gibson and Odorizzi and add assets to build for 2020/2021. I do not want the front office to repeat their approach of 2018.

Huh? Did I miss something? If Kepler is 4th OF and Cave is bye bye, who is playing RF?

I concur, just starting to wonder whether Iglesias is that option. I originally advocated for it, but I wonder if there is a rebuilding team that would be willing to trade a SS that is a step up from Iglesias.

Ranking of relievers on FA market (IMO): Kimbrel Britton Ottavino Familia Doolittle Robertson Miller Herrerra Rondon Allen I'd like to see them sign two from Familia and below. I think the top three will command too much money.

I don't think at this point that anybody is "in the lead".

I don't disagree that it's picking up quite a bunch, but they have less than 50M in salary even with likely arbitration signings. They could legitimately come close to affording that list. I personally would prioritize it as Donaldson, Iglesias, Herera, SP and lastly Pollock. I really like Pollock since he's a RH and can play CF, but realize OF is pretty low priority.

Sign Keuchel or Morton, Herrera, Donaldson, Iglesias and Pollock. SP - Keuchel/Morton, Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Romero/Stewart/Pineda/Gonsalves RP - Herrera, Hildenberger, Rogers, May, Reed, ?,? C - Castro, Garver (Astudillo in AAA) 1B - Sano, Kepler 2B - Polanco SS - Iglesias, Adrianza 3B - Donaldson, Sano OF - Rosario, Buxton, Pollock, Kepler, Cave DH - Rotation of Donaldson, Sano and OF'ers I don't know if this is feasible salary-wise, but I do know that they are shedding a ton of salary this year.

And it sounds like he is from NY so I heard that the Yankees will probably push to sign him.

I think Buxton would be a strong indicator of this.

John, pretty sure you meant Joe Buck. Jack passed back in 2002. As for having Joe Buck's head explode, I'm with you.

Sounds like the optimal situation to me.

I would say that the Twins have said they are willing to let him reach FA and decide during the offseason whether they can afford or want to keep him. This is what a good FO should do. They've left their options open and have multiple possibilities in replacing him if they so choose.