Everything posted by Physics Guy
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Game Thread: Twins @ Orioles, 3/31/18 @ 6:05 PM
Yep, and there was some hand-wringing over Sano's three K's in game one as well.
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Gordon, Gonsalves starting in AA. Romero to AAA
Either that or they should start the leagues in the north a couple weeks later.
- Article: Brian Dozier: I'll Be A Free Agent
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Article: Twins 2018 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter
I love that the Twins jumped on the buyer's market that was 2018 free agency. Getting LoMo at 6.5M per year is a steal and offers some veteran protection behind Sano. With that said, I wish the Twins had gone after Todd Frazier instead. Although Morrison significantly outperformed him last year, Frazier has the longer track record of better performance. Frazier is a RH bat that the Twins are lacking and also could rotate with Sano at 3B, potentially keeping him healthy. Two factors ultimately probably didn't encourage the Twins to sign Frazier. First, they were still potentially saving money to sign Darvish. The Morrison signing came after Darvish signed with the Cubs and the Twins traded for Odorizzi. Second, they didn't know Polanco was going to be suspended. Hindsight makes Frazier the better signing, but I'm still quite happy they signed Morrison. Frazier signed for 2yr/$17M, well within our salary constraints.
- Article: Polanco Suspension Brings Opportunity For Others
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Article: Is Another Arm Coming?
Cobb vs Lynn doesn't much matter now. I just hope Lynn can start 30+ with an ERA under 4. If so, he's a good signing.
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Article: Is Another Arm Coming?
Why not? Do you think there is a significant difference between Cobb and Lynn? Cobb put up two seasons prior to TJ surgery with sub-3 ERA and 8K/9 in the AL East. My biggest concern with him is a lack of innings, although he put up about 180 last year.
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Article: Is Another Arm Coming?
I prefer Cobb to Lynn, so yes I would offer him that.
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The 25th man
I am going to say this again. Adrianza is not on the chopping block. He was a valuable depth player last year and does not have options remaining. With Sano either being suspended or questionable to play every day at 3B, they have to keep two IF on the bench. The 25th spot comes down to Grossmann, Vargas and Granite probably ranked in that order. The team needs 5 starters so infrequently in April that they don't need 13 pitchers.
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The 25th man
Granite is in Rochester. Adrianza is 24th man because of uncertainty with Sano. Grossman makes it over Vargas because he is a better OF than Morrison (I think). Vargas is redundant with Morrison on the roster.
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Dozier and the Trade Deadline
Really? Polanco had an OPS at age 23 that it took Dozier until he was 27 to best. Polanco had an .870 OPS in the second half last year, a number Dozier has surpassed once. I understand it was only half a season, but to say Polanco isn't capable of being as good as Dozier is inaccurate IMO.
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Dozier and the Trade Deadline
Or it's possible that last year's efforts to trade him set his value. My guess is that they want to see how Gordon and Lewis perform this year. You also didn't mention Polanco. The Twins have options and as such do not have to break the bank to resign him. They also could have just had him go to arbitration every year as well but they gave him an extension. Let's not act as though the Twins are screwing him over. They are making good business decisions.
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Dozier and the Trade Deadline
I will echo what a few have said on this thread. I think the Twins will be able to resign Dozier at a reasonable rate if they so choose. He is likely to face much the same market at the FA did this year. Yes, the Dodgers and Yankees will probably open their wallets again, but Dozier is down the list of FA for next year. Harper, Machado, Kershaw and Donaldson are more likely to get the big contracts next year. DJ LeMahieu, Daniel Murphy and Josh Harrison are other options available at 2B. As well as Dozier has done the past two years, I don't think he is going to break the bank in FA. I'm going out on a limb and guess he signs a 4 year deal in the $60-70M range, well within what is feasible for the Twins. As a matter of fact, I would guess that the Twins will actually reduce their salary if the resign Joe and Dozier (they combine for $32M this year).
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Twins Still Pursuing Lance Lynn?
This pretty much sums up my feeling. I have no issues with them adding Cobb or Lynn (preferable Cobb for me). The only problem I would have is if it prevented them from going after a better arm at the trade deadline. I would be OK with status quo if I knew that meant they had room to acquire a pitcher in July/August like Houston did with Verlander last year.
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Article: Trade Target: Collin McHugh (McWho?)
I'm going to post this without reading the entire thread. I've taken a couple of days off and am overwhelmed by the number of posts on multiple threads regarding the rotation. I want to comment on a few things that stuck in my mind as I read through part of this thread. I am in agreement with many of the posts that I would like to see the Twins improve the top of the rotation. I am very skeptical at this point that it will happen. As a result, I have to think they will do something to add to the middle of the rotation (better than or equal to Gibson's last half of 2017). McHugh would do that, I believe. I also think Cobb or Lynn could provide that. I would be fine with any of these. For those believing we can't compete without an ace, I ask you to look at the 2015 Royals and 2013 Red Sox. Neither team had a pitcher outperform Santana's 2017. It is possible to win with Santana/Berrios at the front of the rotation. I'm not saying the percentages are high, but it can be done. Removing the 9 starts by Gee, Tepesch, Wilk, Turley and Melville should help. We also had 6 starts by Enns, Slegers and Jorge, but I can live with those.
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What is the end game?
I don't blame the teams one bit for not wanting to pay $100M+ to any of this year's Free Agents. They all have question marks and the list of those types contracts not working out is probably greater than the ones that work out. The teams that normally don't care about spending (LAD, NYY, Bos...) are having a correction year to reset their Luxury Tax. It appears to me a combination of an unexciting FA class, teams not wanting to spend this year and possibly holding out for next year's class, which appears significantly better. That said, I really still hope the Twins are willing to bite the bullet and offer Darvish a 5 year, $125-135M contract if that will get it done. My guess is that he hasn't been offered anything better up to this point. I also hope they will push Darvish to make a decision soon on any offer and pursue Cobb if he doesn't accept. Is anybody else tired of Boras and his propaganda? I realize it's part of his job, but he comes off as being incredibly pompous.
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My prediction for which FA pitcher the Twins pick up is....
I still hope for Darvish because it doesn't appear that the Dodgers or Yankees will be able to clear the space and still stay under the Luxury Tax cap. If they don't get Darvish, I hope for Cobb and adding Todd Frazier as a consolation prize.
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Do large dollar, free-agent pitching contracts actually work out?
Given that fact, I'm surprised we don't see more front-loaded contracts to 30+ year old pitchers. I'm not sure it would be enough, but the Twins should offer Darvish something like 5/$130M in the following increments: $25M, $30M, $30M, $25M and $20M. I say less the first year because the Twins still have $23M contract of Mauer on the books for 2018.
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Add Romero and Gonsalves to Staff!
The Twins absolutely need to acquire a starter that slots into the top 3 of the staff. This likely means one of Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn. I would love them to sign Darvish, Arrieta scares the hell out of me, and Cobb would be my second choice over Lynn. I am not a fan of trading our assets from the minors to acquire one, but would be OK with a trade that doesn't involve Lewis or both Romero and Gonsalves. I want to believe in Gibson's second half turnaround and Mejia's promise, but the odds that both pan out this year are at best 50/50. Gonsalves and/or Romero will most likely get their chances during the season, even if they do sign one of the above FA's. I don't want them both in the rotation to start the season as that severely limits pur depth.
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Prospects for 2018
At his age, that would probably be for the best.
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Prospects for 2018
Wanted to include Garver, but chose to only include players who haven't made their major league debut. Garver would have been high on the list, possibly behind a couple of relievers who have had a cup of coffee with the Twins (Busenitz, Curtiss, Chargois).
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Prospects for 2018
Eades was probably next on my list. I chose Baxendale just because he has a better track record and his age indicates he needs to debut soon or become a minor league lifer.
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Article: Three Twins Breakout Candidates For 2018
Good list Cody. It would be great for Kepler to breakout and find a way to reach .700 OPS vs lefties. Berrios already had a breakout last year and taking another step above that would be great. Hildy also had an excellent "break-in" this past year and improvement above that would really make for a solid back end to the bullpen. My "breakouts" for 2018 would just be for Gibson, Polanco and Buxton to continue what they did the second half of 2017. I also would like to see Mejia get to around a 4.00 ERA and show consistency.
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Prospects for 2018
As much trouble as I had coming up with 10 candidates, I'm curious if anybody thinks I left somebody off the list that should be on it.
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Prospects for 2018
I see Wade as similar to Granite in that he's able to play all three OF positions and appears to be more of an on-base guy rather than power. He does appear to have more pop than Granite, but not the speed. He's likely a 4th OF, but with a somewhat different set of skills.