Physics Guy

I am a proponent of signing Donaldson. The rest are all meh to me.

I very much like the idea of Donaldson, but more as a part-time 3B, 1B and DH. Doing so could help keep him healthy. I will be surprised if he is able to get anywhere near $75M over three years considering he has played 165 games in the past two years.

Yeah, I really don't have a feel for what they will need for Greinke. I did remove a potential 9-10M commitment to Odorizzi in the trade. If we could somehow swap Castro in for Odorizzi, I would love that. I doubt the D-backs would.

Not wild about it either, but they can afford it right now. I want an upgrade and 3yrs/35M per isn't much different than 5yrs/25M per for Corbin/Keuchel.

I originally guessed higher on earlier threads, but both sources I looked at had him going for less. Last year's market certainly worked that way, but that was a different year.

Here's mine: http://twinsdaily.com/blog/324/entry-11269-2019-blueprint/

The Twins are at a crossroads. 2017 provided fans with the promise of the future as they surprised many to make the Wild Card game and expectations were high for 2018. Needless to say, this past season did not end as many hoped, although at 78-84 they only finished 7 games behind 2017. They had a horrible 15 walk-off losses this past year and had to deal with what would kindly be called disappointing seasons from two supposed cornerstones for the future in Buxton and Sano. Improving their "luck" in late innings and improvement from Buxton and Sano could easily lead to a better than .500 record in 2019. With that being said, I want nothing to do with a .500 record. The Twins either need to decide that they have the nucleus of a contender and supplement it with additional pieces or they need to retool for 2020/2021 when the next wave of prospects arrive. They certainly have the payroll flexibility to do so. I do not want to see them just fill holes with mediocre free agents and have a ceiling of 85 wins. While I felt the front office did a good job of adding pieces last offseason to potentially improve the squad, Falvey acknowledged that adding people on 1 and 2 year contracts does not necessarily get them to "buy in" to the team. If they are not going to invest significantly in the team, I would be for doing as Tom Froemming suggested: http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/offseason-blueprint-changing-the-course-r7325 With that in mind, here is my blueprint for the Twins front office in 2019. (Prices for arbitration eligible players is from MLBTR estimates and FA prices are estimated from TD Offseason handbook and John Heyman's article.) The first move for the Twins involves upgrading the rotation. The Twins should attempt to entice the D-backs in to trading Zack Greinke for Jake Odorizzi, Nick Gordon and Stephen Gonsalves. The added salary would be somewhat offset with the departure of Odorizzi who is likely due 9-10M in arbitration. Adding Gio Gonzalez or J.A. Happ would be cheaper secondary options that would put a lefty in the rotation. The are many question marks in the infield and I will start with the assumption that Joe Mauer is going to retire. The Twins will need to fill spots at 1B and either 2B or SS with Jorge Polanco filling the other role. I feel Polanco and the Twins would be better served with a move to 2B. As a result I propose signing Jose Iglesias (3yrs/24M) to improve their defense up the middle. To fill 1B and give the Twins a fallback option at 3B, they should sign Josh Donaldson (3yrs/60M). Playing more at 1B and DH (and subbing at 3B) would hopefully keep Donaldson's potent RH bat in the lineup. Tyler Austin would be the backup 1B and also serve as a DH. Having a potent and deep bullpen seems to be a necessity these days. Riding his best bullpen arms to the point of overuse was one of my biggest criticisms of Paul Molitor. Baldelli needs to be provided with a deeper bullpen. I propose signing David Robertson (2 yrs, 22M) and Joe Kelly (3yrs, 24M). Along with the returning players, this would be the deepest pen they have had in years. These changes would leave the Twins with the following roster: C - Garver (0.6M), Castro (8M) I see this as a platoon favoring Garver. 1B - Donaldson (20M), Austin (0.6M) 2B - Polanco (0.6M) SS - Iglesias (8M), Adrianza (1.8M) 3B - Sano (3.1M) OF - Rosario (5M), Buxton (1.2M), Kepler (3.2M), Cave (0.6M) SP - Greinke (35M), Berrios (0.6M), Gibson (7.9M), Pineda (8M), Romero/Mejia/Stewart/Littell (0.6M) RP - Robertson (11M), Kelly (8M), Reed (8.5M), Rogers (1.6M), May (1.1M), Hildenberger, Moya and Magill (all at 0.6M) They will owe buyouts of 7.95 M for Hughes, Santana and Morrison. That will put the Twins at approximately 145 M, which is just above the median (141M) and mean (139M) payrolls in MLB for 2018. They would have 24.5M coming off the books for 2020 to cover growing payroll for young players. I realize that this is not likely, but it also is not that much more than what they originally committed to 2018. If the Twins are not willing to commit to such a plan, I would much rather they trade players like Gibson and Odorizzi and add assets to build for 2020/2021. I do not want the front office to repeat their approach of 2018.

Ummm, it's not necessarily wasting. They used Sept to evaluate Drake and Field. Is it possible they saw enough to feel they weren't worth a 40 man spot? I would argue that is part of what they should be doing, especially if they feel they don't have others (not saying I agree) they feel are ready for an audition (Reed, Wade...).

Huh? Did I miss something? If Kepler is 4th OF and Cave is bye bye, who is playing RF?

I concur, just starting to wonder whether Iglesias is that option. I originally advocated for it, but I wonder if there is a rebuilding team that would be willing to trade a SS that is a step up from Iglesias.

Ranking of relievers on FA market (IMO): Kimbrel Britton Ottavino Familia Doolittle Robertson Miller Herrerra Rondon Allen I'd like to see them sign two from Familia and below. I think the top three will command too much money.

I don't think at this point that anybody is "in the lead".

Assuming the Twins sign a SS/2B and protection for 3B, it would come down to Grossman or Austin. I prefer to give Austin the chance.

Here's my take: Donaldson 4yrs/80 M Iglesias 4yrs/44M Familia 3yrs/36M Robertson 3yrs/30M That's 53M for this year, putting us between 100M and 110M with projected arbitration, less Grossman. Roster: C - Garver, Castro 1B - Donaldson, Austin, Kepler 2B - Polanco, Adrianza SS - Iglesias, Adrianza 3B - Sano, Donaldson LF - Rosario, Cave CF - Buxton, Kepler RF - Kepler, Cave SP - Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi then 2 of: Romero, Pineda, Stewart, Gonsalves, Littel, Mejia RP - Familia, Robertson, Rogers, May, Hildy, Reed, Magill/Drake/Moya Lineups: Vs RHP: 2B Polanco, 1B Donaldson, LF Rosario, 3B Sano, DH Cave, RF Kepler, C Castro, SS Iglesias, CF Buxton Vs LHP: 2B Polanco, DH Donaldson, 3B Sano, 1B Austin, LF Rosario, C Garver, RF Kepler, SS Iglesias, CF Buxton Donaldson can play 3B 20-25% of the time and allow Sano to DH, Cave and Austin can get occasional starts against same handed P when Donaldson or Sano need to sit or if Cave is outproducing Kepler. I really feel they need to add some additional RH pop into the lineup. These signings give them significant flexibility and protection from issues with Buxton and Sano. I feel like the Twins have some options for the 4&5 starter that I would like to see rather than a veteran depth signing. I don't see much at the top in the FA pool outside Corbin and Keuchel which I don't think we can win the bidding for. I'd rather they build depth on the back end of the bullpen that would give them a chance in the postseason and one that the manager won't burn out. Oops, I forgot the FO already took care of that.

I think this can be done, but I just don't remember how to do it. I was having a discussion last night with some friends and one was arguing that Joe was the best 1B in the AL. Can I sort batting stats for 1B (AL only)? If so, can somebody explain how?

Not much question from what I can tell: Kepler RF, Kirilloff 1B, Rooker DH

Keep him. He's stil relatively young and I feel like he can still OPS north of .800. I don't think he would garner much in trades, but has significant value defensively for a team that can't rely on Buxton yet. In another thread I suggested bringing AJ Pollock. If they did that it would offer more flexibility and allow Kepler to get some work at 1B and relegate Cave to AAA.

That was my question! I was hoping he would see it my way.

I don't disagree that it's picking up quite a bunch, but they have less than 50M in salary even with likely arbitration signings. They could legitimately come close to affording that list. I personally would prioritize it as Donaldson, Iglesias, Herera, SP and lastly Pollock. I really like Pollock since he's a RH and can play CF, but realize OF is pretty low priority.

Sign Keuchel or Morton, Herrera, Donaldson, Iglesias and Pollock. SP - Keuchel/Morton, Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Romero/Stewart/Pineda/Gonsalves RP - Herrera, Hildenberger, Rogers, May, Reed, ?,? C - Castro, Garver (Astudillo in AAA) 1B - Sano, Kepler 2B - Polanco SS - Iglesias, Adrianza 3B - Donaldson, Sano OF - Rosario, Buxton, Pollock, Kepler, Cave DH - Rotation of Donaldson, Sano and OF'ers I don't know if this is feasible salary-wise, but I do know that they are shedding a ton of salary this year.

And it sounds like he is from NY so I heard that the Yankees will probably push to sign him.

I think Buxton would be a strong indicator of this.

John, pretty sure you meant Joe Buck. Jack passed back in 2002. As for having Joe Buck's head explode, I'm with you.

Sounds like the optimal situation to me.

I wish Gibson could have found last August about three years ago. He looks pretty sharp tonight. His changeup has nice sink. Let's hope it continues.