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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    This can be checked fairly easily at B-Ref. Glen Perkins, LHB faced by year 2015: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?pitcher=perkigl01#gotresults&pitcher=perkigl01&min_year_game=2015&max_year_game=2015&post=1&opp_id=&bats=L&opponent_status=&c1criteria=&c1gtlt=eq&c1val=0&c2criteria=&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc&ajax=1&submitter=1 2014: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?pitcher=perkigl01#gotresults&pitcher=perkigl01&min_year_game=2014&max_year_game=2014&post=1&opp_id=&bats=L&opponent_status=&c1criteria=&c1gtlt=eq&c1val=0&c2criteria=&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc&ajax=1&submitter=1 2013: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?pitcher=perkigl01#gotresults&pitcher=perkigl01&min_year_game=2013&max_year_game=2013&post=1&opp_id=&bats=L&opponent_status=&c1criteria=&c1gtlt=eq&c1val=0&c2criteria=&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc&ajax=1&submitter=1 Maybe someone with a more keen eye than mine can glean more from that, but I don't see a ton of differences -- Perkins got to face Adam Dunn in 2013-2014, but he also got to face Pedro Alvarez in 2015. He was better in 2015 vs Alex Gordon than in 2014, etc. I don't see anything that jumps out as an explanation for 6-7 fewer strikeouts and 8-9 more hits from his 2013 levels. I won't say his 2014 or 2015 represents his true talent level versus lefties, but given the sum total of our quantitative and qualitative observations about him, I also wouldn't count on him being a weapon versus lefties as suggested in the post that inspired this conversation.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    By the time the youngsters come up, the current good bullpen pitchers (Jepsen and Fien in particular, May too if he was needed to start) may be gone, and Perkins not far behind. Thus, the youngsters might just be offsetting those losses and maintaining an "OK" bullpen, rather than improving it towards "very good."
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I doubt the end-of-game issue is any kind of factor. Teams have such short benches that they probably aren't pinch hitting much for anyone. Thrylos actually included some pitch observations in his original post on the subject, so it's not all stats based. I also don't think teams can afford to wait too long for reliever stats to stabilize.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Unfortunately, Perkins and Abad both have that reverse platoon split, and might be the two LH RP most likely to make the roster...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, I didn't say otherwise. I just used those names as examples. Same principles apply to the other spots.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, a lot of teams take that kind of approach, which is why you don't see many trades of significance from March until July. But it seems that sometimes the Twins apply this philosophy as long as November through July...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Consistently? Jepsen and Cotts last year, then... Todd Jones back in 2001? I guess Bill Smith added Rauch, Fuentes, and Capps, and to be fair the Twins didn't really have a need for another reliever in most of those TR years, but then again, I'm not sure we have enough data to say much here. I'm not sure if it's anything more than the fact that relievers are generally cheaper to acquire than other positions, especially now that draft pick compensation has mostly been removed from them.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    No argument here, but we didn't acquire such a pitcher this winter, and it's unlikely that our internal RHRP will be ready (and trusted) by opening day. If deploying O'Rourke can help us squeeze out some early season victories in the meantime, so be it. If he's only displacing another interchangeably mediocre RP like Abad, Kintzler, or even Tonkin if they are truly sour on him, it's not that big of a deal.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Graham was actually on the DL for a bit late in the season, and in any case, he wasn't used as a long reliever (or much at all) over the season's final months. Stauffer was never really used that way (perhaps due to ineffectiveness), he maxed out at 2 innings, often fell short of that, and ultimately was only on the roster for 6 weeks anyway.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    You'll get no argument from me, especially when we seem to target/keep "token" LHP like Duensing and Abad. But until those other RH pitchers are ready, there's no shame in swapping out one of your interchangeably mediocre relief arms for a potential LH weapon.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    The starting staff should be better in 2016, though. No aces, but just a full season from a workhorse like Santana instead of Mr. "5 IP/start" Pelfrey is going to boost your starter innings. And regardless of starters, I don't think the Twins are optimally deploying the bottom half of their bullpen. There's no need to have 3-4 generic average-ish pitchers with a target full season usage of 60 IP as they Twins have been rostering lately. Until a better overall reliever is ready and available, they'd almost certainly be better off axing one of those interchangeable average-ish guys, rostering O'Rourke for 30 targeted innings of strict LOOGY deployment, and spreading the remaining 30 innings over the other pitchers, designating at least one to be more of a long reliever anyway and preferably having one or more with the option to send to AAA for a fresh arm when needed. The Twins weren't even carrying a long reliever to soak up innings for long stretches late last season, and it showed -- early exits by the starter resulted in a parade of interchangeable 1-inning guys (including a miscast O'Rourke) for no discernible benefit.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I imagine those contingencies can be pretty nebulous, though, in regards to a player's physical.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    The Cardinals have had no problem rostering Randy Choate the last 3 seasons, etc. With a 7 man bullpen standard, that will probably swell to 8 at times, and I see no reason why there wouldn't be room for a LOOGY. Other teams have similar sized bullpens too, so everybody has a short bench and can't pinch hit so easily. Seems like an easy way for a suspect bullpen to improve, to smartly deploy a strict LOOGY.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure if this is quite true, Seth. O'Rourke faced 3 RHB in his debut, was notably allowed to face a couple RHB in a game he helped blow against the Yankees, etc., all before the Cotts acquisition. And we're not looking at his numbers judging his performance, but rather judging if they will trust him and how they would use them. EDIT: Just peeked at his game log, and he did face a larger share of RHB after Cott's acquisition. But even before Cotts, only 61% of his batters faced were LHB, well short of LOOGY standards like Randy Choate (80%). And after Cotts, he barely pitched at all -- 8 appearances, 6 IP between the Cott's acquisition and when we were eliminated from the postseason (~40 team games). And the fact that we acquired Cotts, even after O'Rourke showed promise as a LOOGY, suggests perhaps we don't like a strict LOOGY in our pen and we may not trust O'Rourke.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Regression is the key point. Problem is, the Twins bullpen last year was pretty solidly mediocre no matter how you slice it. So if a good performance like Jepsen regresses down, and Fien or Perkins regress back up, you're still left with the same overall mediocre performance.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't hear that specific conversation, but I remember hearing TR earlier in the offseason say that Rogers will be looked at as a reliever in spring training. So he's in the mix, at least for now. Unfortunately, on the flip side, everything I've heard has May destined for the bullpen too. I heard Neil Allen running through every possible starter in a Twins Fest interview and I don't think May's name came up at all.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Turned out to be more useful than, say, Danny Santana's 2014 batting average.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    No way. The Royals won that game 7-1. Jeremy Guthrie had a 5.95 ERA, so he could have won it 7-6 and they could have held on to all of their prospects.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    bird, all I meant to say was if a lack of opportunity thus far is an issue when evaluating Tonkin now, as Seth suggested, that is a problem of the Twins own making. That's all. Not saying Tonkin was ready to be a star, not commenting on other positions, etc.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, I didn't really mean "weak". More like even, balanced, wide open, etc. Over at Fangraphs, our projected division winner has the fewest projected wins (84) of any in baseball. Same for our projected 2nd place team. Lowest spread between first and last, or second and last, of any division.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Phil Hughes, seasons as a starter, ERA- / FIP- 2010: 98 / 98 2011: 138 / 109 2012: 101 / 107 2013: 128 / 110 2014: 91 / 70 2015: 109 / 116 Trevor May, 3 months starting in his rookie season, ERA- / FIP- 2015: 108 / 80 I'd be fine with using their current "stuff" to decide which one starts in 2016.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB teams rarely see it that way, though. Not a lot of pitchers held back for obvious service time reasons. I can't think of any held back for an extra year of control, Kris Bryant style. Gerrit Cole was called up right after the Super-2 date, which didn't get an extra year of control but guaranteed only 3 arb seasons rather than 4, but even that seems pretty rare for pitchers. The penny-pinching Rays, who famously held back Wil Myers past the Super 2 date, have developed a lot of pitching prospects lately and been pretty aggressive with promoting all of them. Makes sense, when you think about it. Pitchers have so much more perceived variability that the present-day value of "guaranteeing" a 7th season is notably lower. One injury and the whole thing is moot, look at Francisco Liriano (another aggressive promotion back in the day).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins were winning last April when they made the decision to go with vets? Throughout 2014? The vet preference isn't some new thing based on their place in the standings, it's their default mode. Sorry, didn't mean to bring it up again, but when you stated a concern about Tonkin is that he hasn't had "any real consistent, extended time" in MLB, well there's just no excuse for still having a concern like that after the stretch of seasons the Twins have had, and with our bullpen composition in those seasons. Not that I think Tonkin is any great shakes, and in fact I doubt the Twins are concerned about his experience either -- I think they've long viewed him as another fairly fungible 40-man insurance guy, closer to Darnell, Strong, etc. than any real part of our future. Just so happens he's survived his option years. Which leads me back again to TR's quote that "all three of those guys have a spot on this club if they just come in and earn it." It doesn't really mean anything without defining what "earn it" means, and in Tonkin's case in particular, it is probably a prohibitively high performance standard.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you are overrating the likelihood of a March trade, or even an April trade based on March results. Teams generally aren't buying starting players in the trade market that early, particularly not an iffy guy like Nolasco with a longer-term commitment. If a hole develops, while they may not have great internal options, teams almost always go with the internal options for a few months first. Here are the March & April trades from the last couple years: http://transactions.mlbtraderumors.com/widget/transactions-tracker&link=true&widget=true&amount_type=4&type_ID=1&startDate=03/01/2015&endDate=04/30/2015&lang=41 http://transactions.mlbtraderumors.com/widget/transactions-tracker&link=true&widget=true&amount_type=4&type_ID=1&startDate=03/01/2014&endDate=04/30/2014&lang=41 I agree with your last point though, that it would be best to get rid of Nolasco, but short of release, I don't think you can do that until July at the earliest. I'd probably roster him over the various veteran bullpen candidates (Abad and Kintzler), but I have a harder time justifying him over other starters.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    When you are as close as the Twins are, projected near .500 in a weak division, you can't afford to defer a season. But if the Twins aren't expecting to be serious contenders in 2016, wouldn't that be more of an argument for trusting the youth this year? Applies more to the bullpen, but what benefits the 2017 Twins more, experience for Duffey/Berrios/etc., or showcasing Nolasco as a potential salary dump?
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