Otto von Ballpark

No doubt he caught a lot of games from 2008-2011, but that feels like too convenient of an excuse. He was a 91 OPS+ hitter from ages 23-27, he's been 79 from 28-31. Almost all of that has been a drop in power. And even if it was influenced by his heavy workload from 2008-2011, and if offseasons before 2012, 2013, and 2015 didn't help, it doesn't seem likely that it can be reversed by an extra couple days off per week in 2016.

Actually, shouldn't that be "had Suzuki only pulled or gone up the middle and never walked or struck out"? Which strikes me as worthwhile a hypothetical as guessing his batting line in a world with unicorns...

See my post above, I don't think framing this as Pressly/Tonkin vs Boyer specifically is correct. I have nothing against Boyer, and if the Twins liked what they saw in the spring, he certainly showed enough early in the season to warrant a spot. The problem wasn't Boyer specifically, but the 6 vets plus 1 Rule 5 guy opening day bullpen construction, where the marginal "been there before" benefit of each successive vet chosen over Pressly/Tonkin/etc. was less and less. A couple other notes: Pressly didn't get hurt until July. Boyer, Duensing, Stauffer, even former minor league signee Thompson were all picked over him in April. I have no problem citing the injury as a question mark entering 2016, but looking back it should have no bearing on the decisions made prior to July 2015. In their first crack at MLB in 2015, Pressly picked up 3 wins and 3 holds in May, and Tonkin got 5 holds. Outside of Pressly's narrow extra inning loss to Detroit, neither blew a lead or contributed in any notable way to Twins losses. Their reward? Pressly wasn't brought into a game tied or leading for a full month before his injury, and Tonkin didn't see another MLB appearance of even average leverage again until September 19. Very hard to say that either failed any kind of MLB performance test in 2015, they were hardly given the opportunity. And what opportunities they received, they performed. As many projected, they easily matched or exceed the present day contributions of multiple "been there before" veterans rostered ahead of them, and even their modest future value obviously exceeded the zero future value of same said veterans. Calling into serious question the value of the Twins veteran bullpen construction strategy.

You will forgive me if I don't fully trust your subjective remembrances of the 2015 season when you seem to be confusing Pressly with Graham in this discussion. I have no idea who are responding to here. Clearly I have never suggested anything like this, in fact I've gone out of my way to say the opposite, that Tonkin and Pressly don't need to be potentially dominant to offer more future value than someone like Boyer, Duensing, Stauffer, etc. It's also not necessarily Pressly/Tonkin vs. just Boyer -- all of those guys (Boyer, Duensing, Stauffer) were picked over Pressly last April, and over Tonkin, Rogers, etc. beyond April too. My argument isn't that Boyer specifically needed to be replaced, or that all of those guys needed to be replaced, but that the Twins were stocking way too many of those guys for too little total present/future benefit.

Well, yeah, ultimately I am sure that's their justification for most every move. But in any case, if that was the primary justification, wouldn't a modest two year deal for Mark Lowe give them a better chance to win than Kintzler? Or a couple C prospects for one year of Joaquim Benoit? Lowe or Benoit over Kintzler almost certainly makes a bigger difference in our chances to win than Kintzler over (say) Pressly, but the former you routinely shot down and the latter you now justify because we plan to be contenders? (Setting aside whether there is really any difference in our win chances between Kintzler and Pressly)

Kintzler once had somewhat higher strikeout rates, although they declined each year. Given his 2014 injury, it could settle in closer to 7 than to 5. Still not great or any help at the top of the pen, but not too bad.

Thanks, but I wasn't doing that.

Apparently the Twins thought there was a proper mix last year, they rostered a Rule 5 pick in a contending year. I don't see any reason that roster spot couldn't go to a rookie again in 2016 rather than filling it instead with another "guy who's been there" for "depth" to quote Seth.

A. You're disproving an absolute claim no one made ("the Twins never give a chance to the young pitcher") B. Roenicke was a 30 years old waiver claim when he came to the Twins, Thompson was a 28 year old last year who we signed on a minor league deal. As so little care was put into assembling that list, I won't waste any more time dissecting it further.

Boyer, "so far superior"? Did you look beyond ERA? Check his rate of unearned runs allowed and inherited runners scored and get back to us. Also note his current unemployment. Signing Boyer or Kintzler to a minor league deal costs nothing, but rostering them definitely has a cost. You get neither a pitcher you trust in high-leverage work in the short term, nor do you get any kind of option for the long-term. All you get is 50-60 innings of roughly league average run prevention in medium to low leverage relief work. That's not necessarily bad, but not exactly valuable either, as evidenced by the present unemployment of Boyer and Duensing, the minor league deals signed by Abad and Kintzler, etc. If you've got any internal options who could provide roughly league average run prevention in those same 50-60 relief innings, as Tonkin and Pressly have in their MLB careers thus far, you don't need to offer much potential for dominance to have more "upside" than the likes of Boyer and Duensing. Just having years of cheap control and a shred of potential to improve is really all the "upside" you need to differentiate yourself.

Thanks, will be interesting to see. I'd probably give him a shot at the MLB bullpen too, with the AAA rotation as fallback option.

Absolutely agree, although Meyer could certainly show enough in spring training to make the roster (assuming they don't move him back to starter). He scuffled in 2015, but don't forget he had a 10.6 K/9 as a AAA starter in 2014, so he's well above the others in indicators of MLB bullpen readiness. And Rogers, unfortunately, his biggest handicap (no relief experience) isn't really his fault. Yes. Although "stop gaps" implies that any league-average RP will suffice as placeholder in the meantime. Given our pen struggles in 2015, contention aspirations in 2016, and the above-discussed uncertainty around all of our relief prospects, I was hoping we'd aim higher. Jepsen and his one-year deal would have been a perfect high-end "placeholder" to be replaced in 2017 or as early as July 2016, paired with another Jepsen-like reliever acquisition this winter. But I promised my therapist not to discuss that anymore. And Pressly and Tonkin (and O'Rourke as LOOGY) can be capable placeholders, with plenty of cheap future control if needed and even some upside left. Fien too, affordable for 2016 at least. Abad and Kintzler seem more like dead-end options to me, like Boyer, Duensing, etc. Even if they meet expectations in the short term, you're unlikely to ever trust them in important spots or want them back the following year at any salary, so what's the point when you have guys like Fien, Pressly, Tonkin, and O'Rourke? There's enough talent/control in that group, and enough of an immediate need for pen improvement, that simply aiming to tread water with Boyer, Abad, or Kintzler actually hurts you.

Quentin's career wRC+ is 122, darn close to Mauer's career 127. Better than anything Arcia or Vargas have sustained. Remember when folks were excited by Arcia's 2nd half in 2014? 120 wRC+. Remember being excited about Vargas' 2014 debut? 114 wRC+. If we could get that level of performance for $750k, even as just a bench bat, that would be a lot better than "a decent signing." The question is, of course, how likely is that? Not terribly likely given the last 2 seasons, but before that, like Mauer, he was actually well *above* his career average the two seasons prior (145 wRC+ over 2012-2013), so a decent bounceback at age 33 isn't that preposterous. Almost certainly worth up to 2 months of a AAA roster spot to find out (June 1st opt out), which is all the Twins appear to have invested so far. If this was a MLB contract, or even a minor league deal with an April 1st out out, I would be opposed because that would suggest a commitment of spring training playing time and perhaps a premature judgement on Arcia, Vargas, etc. But that June 1st opt out suggests this is not the case, and also suggests the Twins didn't make any undue promises to sign him.

I clearly referenced his stuff and tools in my post, and of course I know he missed two seasons. But he still has to perform eventually, the injury doesn't really remove that requirement. Even disregarding age, Chargois didn't quite do that in 2015, perhaps because of the missed time, but my point is, THAT should be his immediate objective for 2016, not jumping ahead to the MLB transition as some posters are suggesting. Same goes for Melotakis, Burdi, and most of our current relief prospects (with the possible exception of Meyer and Rogers).

Allow me to join the chorus of name mis-pronouncers. Hopefully Dick and Bert have the opportunity to join that chorus early this season too.

Outside his one "clunker" at AA, Chargois had a 1.237 WHIP, a nice 6.4 H/9 but also 4.7 BB/9 and only a 9.5 K/9. Not a bad K rate, certainly, but a little underwhelming considering his age, stuff, and level. Burdi had an 11.1 K/9 in the same league, Jones 10.0. Among all AA pitchers with 20+ IP, Chargois only ranked 105th in K/9, 114th in K%. And 29% of Chargois's K's came in his final 4 regular season appearances (only 14% of his total innings). Is that a sign of things to come, or more of a brief fluke of match-ups? For example, on August 30th, Chargois struck out all 4 batters he faced, but those 4 particular batters all had above league average K rates themselves, 3 of them as decided non-prospects as old as 28 years old at the time. At the same age of 24, AJ Achter had a comparable 6.9 H/9, 8.7 K/9, and 4.7 BB/9 in his AA debut too (and that's without throwing out any "clunker" appearances). Obviously Chargois has more tools than Achter, but no matter how you slice it, those tools haven't really translated to any kind of extended dominant performance so far. That's the challenge facing most Twins relief prospects in 2016, more than actually making the jump to the majors.

Thanks for the article, Seth. It's fun to finally see these relief prospects getting closer. True, and don't forget to apply this same lesson when discussing the contributions of Boyer and the potential contributions of Kintzler.

Yeah. And the June 1st opt out sort of confirms there wasn't any undeserved promise made to him (yet). I am far more worried about earlier minor league signings Abad and Kintzler, who probably have the inside track to opening day roster spots. (Not sure if they have opt outs, though?)

Of course. But Pressly or Tonkin over Boyer last spring would have hardly been "always going that direction." The Twins already had Perkins, Fien, Duensing, and Stauffer on guaranteed MLB deals last spring. What's the argument for 5 pen veterans over 4 pen veterans? The only pen "prospect" they used out of the gate last year was Rule 5'er Graham. This year, it could be more of the same. They have Perkins, Jepsen, Fien, and probably Nolasco or Milone. They will also probably roster Pressly and/or Tonkin, each with parts of 3 MLB seasons under their belts, plus May obviously. Do they really need the stabilizing veteran presence of Abad or Kintzler? That's not a proper mix of veterans and prospects, that is literally zero rookies in the pen.

I doubt the Twins have that many notable prospects for those positions at that level in 2016. Buxton in CF, Walker in RF, Kepler in LF, Vargas at 1B, still leaves DH open, no? And if/when Buxton is promoted, Kepler can slide to CF and that opens another corner spot. Not to mention Kepler's chances at MLB himself, or Vargas's chances of being traded. And that June 1st opt out date suggests spring training is not the decision point, so he shouldn't take an excess of opportunities there either.

How did Boyer help us win over Pressly, or Tonkin? When you consider not only ERA but inherited runners and unearned runs allowed, both were as or more effective than Boyer in 2015. Almost certainly with more upside too. Yet each lost a month or more to Boyer in 2015. Someone like Rogers or Meyer perhaps lost more. Even someone like O'Rourke, perhaps had he come up earlier, could have been more capable of contributing down the stretch. The idea that Boyer or Kintzler, or any average-ish "6th inning guy", represent "win now" moves is strange to me.

The Twins weren't really expecting to compete at the beginning of 2015 when they picked Boyer over younger guys to make the team. Heck, they were spending one bullpen spot on a Rule 5 pick. And they never had any shortage of guys to fill that 6th inning role, all year. What they lacked was guys for higher leverage roles. And you're not going to find or develop those guys in a timely manner if you keep rostering every veteran 6th inning guy you can get your hands on.

To be fair, Bartlett and Kubel inexplicably got opt outs around March 30. Quentin's June 1st opt out suggests there is some understanding that Quentin will need minor league time.

Would we? Adjusting for the high number of inherited runners and unearned runs he allowed to score, Boyer turned in a roughly ~107 ERA+ performance in 2015. He wasn't trusted to any real degree down the stretch but firmly occupied a roster spot nonetheless, and was let go at the end of the season as a free agent. Not sure that the Twins gained much of anything from the Blaine Boyer experience. They got some average middle relief innings, but did lose a spot where they could have further evaluated Pressly, Tonkin, Rogers, etc. at different times. That problem could be more glaring if it was repeated as the Brandon Kintzler experience in 2016, as the Twins could have even more interesting relief arms in the upper minors.

Just trying to figure out the timeline, his last start in 2014 was April 13. By "a month after being moved back to the bullpen", do you mean he had sudden elbow problems in May? That doesn't quite square with "tried for two months to rehab" though, it would be more like 5 months from then until he had surgery. He pitched every few days until he hit the disabled list on August 4, then was activated a couple weeks later for a few final appearances. July was actually his best month by performance. Seems more likely the injury came on suddenly at the beginning of August, and September and parts of August/October were his "two months rehab"? If you begin after his last start through his last strikeout (July 29), which might be a good proxy for when he got hurt judging by his DL stint, his line looks a bit better: 9.8 K/9, 8.0 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.27 WHIP. Still, given most of it was in high-A around 23 years old, it doesn't scream "fast track." You'd have to go back to his 2012 half season, split between rookie league and A-ball, to see those kind of results, and we all know how stats at those levels aren't a good way to measure readiness, especially for college pitchers (i.e. Jake Reed). Rogers has been near that WHIP as a starter, and O'Rourke probably would have matched it in MLB too if he had been used more vs LHB rather than a 50/50 split.