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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, yeah, if everybody's clearly pitching good enough to be an asset, or injured/bad enough to require immediate replacement, and you have good immediate replacements available and you choose the correct ones, of course it's a win. But I'm not sure why we'd assume those are the only outcomes. What if a starter, or two, or three is just kinda "meh." Not good enough to be sought in trade, but not bad enough to force the Twins to replace him right away. Maybe just sorta injured, enough to excuse iffy performances and maybe give someone like Dean a spot start or two, but not injured enough to call up a permanent replacement like Berrios. We've seen these things before, and lacking clear aces/stars in the Twins rotation, we're likely to see them again in 2016. Obviously starting with some depth is nice, I like this mix more than the past few years, but it's not all lollipops and sunshine.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, I figured you meant before his senior year injury.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to mention, prior to 14 games in the Dominican League this winter, Santana hadn't played a single inning of 2B anywhere in two years. Simply by virtue of more recent extensive experience, Polanco is probably better than Santana at 2B right now, no? And neither one has played any third base in the last 4-5 years, so I'm not sure how you'd judge that Polanco would be worse than Santana there right now.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    If Boldt was more highly-regarded, wouldn't he have been drafted higher? I have to imagine he would have signed had he been drafted anywhere near Trout's spot at #25. Maybe you meant more highly regarded before his injured senior year?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I was just responding to Seth, who stated that part of the issue with Tonkin has been lack of consistent opportunity, but who has also advocated a mediocre vets first plan. Now, I promised my therapist that I wouldn't talk about the Twins bullpen anymore, so I should stop here.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    As hitters, I'd agree, but as base stealers, Mastro would have the clear edge. And the Twins roster as currently constructed could have more use for a pinch running specialist than the modest bat of a reserve outfielder who shouldn't play much anyway. Once Buxton is in CF (a predicate of this point, discussing Sweeney as a 4th/5th OF), if Sano is still in RF, with Rosario and Kepler, and perhaps even Arcia, Santana, and Walker still lurking around, the marginal benefit of Sweeney's bat on his rare opportunities to play would be minimal. It's not hard to envision a good pinch runner being more useful. Not that I endorse either Sweeney or Mastro at this point. I'd prefer neither on the opening day roster, and would probably only entertain promoting them if they had a strong couple months in AAA and we still have an opening.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    A lot higher, really? Sweeney is on a minor league deal, following a season of 79 wRC+ and then a season of not playing at all. Ask Jason Bartlett how that worked out. I don't think it's at all clear that Sweeney could out-hit Buxton on April 1st, in which case the deciding factor should probably be upside and future. Now, if one is determined to get Buxton more AAA reps, I understand, but it's still not clear Sweeney as a placeholder would be worth the 25 and 40 man roster machinations required to add him for opening day over, say, shifting Rosario to CF or even using Danny Santana there a bit. Sweeney is here on a minor league deal, presumably with the standard veteran June 1st opt out, and there is a reason for that -- he's probably not ready for opening day or to be evaluated properly based on spring training results alone.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Tonkin moved up to AAA in May 2013. All of those listed pitched a considerable amount with the Twins beyond that point. Actually all but Roenicke pitched plenty with the Twins in 2014-2015 ahead of Tonkin, I suppose I could have left him out of this specific example and restricted it to just those two years.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure you wouldn't have heard crickets if Danny Santana had even come close to repeating his historic .405 BABIP in 2015...
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs also has Sano as a league average defensive RF and Byung Ho Park as a top 50 hitter in all of MLB. And despite Suzuki projected for 100 more PA than Murphy (which I'd say is actually fairly likely), they still have Twins catchers at a cumulative 2.0 WAR, versus the 0.2 WAR from that position last year. It's the nature of projections. It's not advisable to only discount the pessimistic ones.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, he was a 79 the last time he played, and then missed a full season. Like Quentin, I don't think anyone should be comfortable giving that guy a 25-man roster spot to begin the season, there's almost no way for spring training to indicate it's worth clearing room on the 25-man and 40-man that quickly.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    What do you think Ryan would have said about Pinto before he got DFA'd? Probably that he would have a chance to win a spot in spring training. Not sure how meaningful that statement is. Tonkin in particular seems close to that Pinto path -- as you note, the Twins have never shown any great interest in rostering him before, so why would that suddenly change when he is out of options? The Twins aren't that afraid of cutting young players they are suspicious of (Pinto, Parmelee, Benson, etc.). Arcia would be the next least likely to make it -- they liked him well enough in 2013-2014, but seemed to bury him pretty quickly last year. Some of that was due to injury, but they are also going to factor in projected health in their decision, so it's still relevant. Santana is obviously the most likely, due to his positional flexibility and having most recently gotten the endorsement of the MLB staff (remember they were playing Santana ahead of Escobar as late as July last year).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    But I'll be darned if we can find any fault with the Twins allocating relief innings to the likes of Roenicke, Duensing, Swarzak, Deduno, Guerrier, Stauffer, and Thompson over the past few years...
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Just found this when searching. Actually, Clippard will make $6.125 mil over each of the next 2 seasons, so this statement could still be technically correct.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Just noticed this: http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3511 Note that "Article XX-B" free agents are those with 6 years service time, like Quentin. Does not apply to Abad or Kintzler, who only have 4 years service each. So sending Quentin to the minors to open the season would cost the Twins $100k, obviously less than what his MLB salary would be ($750k) but it is another amount the Twins could include in their calculations, particularly if they really think they might roster Quentin by June 1st and cut another player in that time anyway. Although I still think the opt out date is more important, and as he was apparently unable to negotiate that to an earlier date, I don't think we have much to worry about here yet.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Honestly, I think it was as simple as matching up our hispanic pitcher and our hispanic catcher. Not quite sure why, maybe Deduno was one of the few pitchers willing to throw to Pinto? I think management's opinion of Pinto was already well formed by that point, so it didn't much matter, but it wasn't a shining moment for the club.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Not necessarily true. A number of catchers changed teams in the 2014-2015 offseason. I wouldn't have faulted the Twins much for trying and failing to land one, but after extending Suzuki in July, they didn't even try to address the position further until recently.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I believe we are also promising Kaat a chance to start.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs has wRC+ for both MLB and minor leaguers, which is really nice for comparing guys across disparate hitting environments, like the PCL and FSL. It's not perfect (in the minors, I think they just adjust for league but not specific park) but it is better than raw numbers. I really wish they had something similar for minor league pitchers, but ERA- and FIP- seem exclusive to MLB players at Fangraphs right now...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Raw OPS probably isn't a great measure for a player coming out of the PCL, and I also wouldn't use "throughout" to describe an offensive performance that has been up and down. wRC+ of 85 in his AA debut, 84 in his AAA debut, then 69 in his second AAA season definitely overshadow past stronger performances in the lower minors out of college (shades of Fryer?). Wouldn't be surprised if Hicks is forever overmatched at the plate in MLB, but with a strong defensive rep he is certainly a worthwhile 3rd catcher for this organization right now.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Read harder. In the very post of mine you quoted, I said he was GOOD FOR A CATCHER. What do you think that means? I understand the relative difference in offense between positions. Indeed, rather than ignoring position, the purpose of my post was actually adding the positional qualifier to a claim made by another poster. OPS+ is a perfectly fine way to measure a catcher's hitting, as long as you understand average for catchers is below 100, which I do, hence my post. You can even use it to measure pitcher's hitting, knowing that the pitcher average will be way under 100. But just like we say "good hitter for a pitcher", the same can be said of catchers, because they are not necessarily "good hitters" in an absolute sense without positional context.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Good thing no one said that. Seriously, go back and read my post, I specifically said he was a good hitter for a catcher, although below league average overall in OPS+.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the "wearing down from his workload" angle is usually just an excuse that a coach or manager usually offers to cover for a struggling player. If they really believed it, they wouldn't have worked him so hard in meaningless games down the stretch in 2014 after giving him the extension. And of course, if you press them on why didn't they rest him more, they will credit the player for being a "gamer" (and not in a Lew Ford sense ).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Suzuki was never that good of a hitter in MLB, he was always below average in Oakland by OPS+. "Good for a catcher" at his peak doesn't exactly bode well for his innate hitting skills as he ages, regardless of workload and usage.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    And I'm not sure how meaningful your splits are anyway. According to B-Ref, Suzuki only had a .591 OPS up the middle, so if there was any under-performance going the opposite way, it was likely balanced out by an over-performance pulling the ball (easily possible given the ~80 PA sample in each).
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