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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, he had a league average bat in the Midwest League. Not quite sure he can be "at least" a league average bat in MLB, that's 4 levels away. It's quite possible he *can* do it, of course, but I wouldn't put the "at least" qualifier on it, not quite yet, until he's league average closer to MLB and/or starts flashing an above league-average bat for an extended period in the minors.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Good bloodlines actually worry me a little bit in the modern era. Growing up, Gordon had access to the best amateur baseball instruction and opportunities the world has to offer, not to mention exercise and nutrition. And unlike his brother Dee, Nick was focused on following his dad into baseball at a pretty young age, so he was able to take full advantage. The baseline expectation for a guy like that is to show a solid glove and hold his own at the plate, which is pretty much all we've seen from Gordon so far. I think more than other prospects, you really want to see an elite skill demonstrated early in "bloodlines" players if you want to be confident about their future. For Dee, that was a .300 AVG and basestealing. Nick posted a .300 AVG from June onward last year, so hopefully that is a harbinger of a hitting skill. As we seem to say with every prospect, the next year is very important for him.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, although it would be good to define exactly what "floor" means here. For example, it appears that the floors for Buxton and Gordon are roughly equal overall ("plus defensive outfielder" is probably pretty close to "solid average MLB regular"). Maybe Gordon's floor is fair if you are comparing him to other 2014 draftees in A-ball, but it doesn't seem quite right comparing it to a player of Buxton's experience. I like to think of floor as what the player should achieve if they stay healthy, but don't have a breakout and lose a little effectiveness at each new level as they advance. I think all 3 of these guys should reach MLB, but only Buxton is probably guaranteed a long leash as a regular.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I like to say our series victory over Oakland, and Oakland's series victory over us, cancel each other out, and both franchises should be considered without a playoff series win in the 21st century. Not unlike Braves vs. Indians in 1995, or a hypothetical Cubs vs Red Sox series in 2003 would have been. Although in addition to sweeping us, at least Oakland took all of their other first round losses to the full 5 games. After we beat Oakland 3-2, our next 3 series (LAA, NYY, NYY) followed the same format: we won the first game, then got swept in the rest. Our next 3 series after that (OAK, NYY, NYY), we just got swept, period (despite twice having the first two games at home). Admittedly still a small sample, but I'm willing to believe there's something to it more than just chance or a Yankees curse.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Just doing a very quick comparison of BA's top 250 draft prospect rankings from May 17, 2013, and the first 8 rounds of the actual draft (256 picks), I found 166 name matches, of which 29 had a greater difference in rank and actual pick than Gonsalves' difference referenced in the article (83 spots behind his preseason rank). And those ranks were published only 3 weeks before the draft, you can imagine the differences from a preseason list. MLB.com, which apparently ranked him 27th preseason, gave him a final rank of #98 before the draft, and did not reference the suspension at all in its write-up: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=draft
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Now, I'm sure Gonsalves personally thinks it had a big effect on his draft position, because high-level athletes are conditioned to believe that they would have proven themselves, erased all doubts, etc., with just X more opportunities (in this case, Gonsalves' ~3 missed starts). But in reality, evidence suggests the suspension had little effect.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, the reasoning isn't that cloudy if you read the reporting on the issue. It was a violation of strict team rules, not an eligibility issue. He did miss about a month, but high school schedules are pretty sparse. He probably only missed ~3 starts in that time. MLB scouts are looking for every edge they can find in the draft, it's highly unlikely that they dropped Gonsalves as much as was suggested in the article (from a #27 preseason ranking to #110 selection) based primarily on this odd incident. Preseason, BA actually had Gonsalves ranked #17, and Stewart #18. Guys rise and fall. Prospect lists differ. By the time this comparison of top 30 draft prospects was compiled in March, well before Gonsalves' suspension, he was already not mentioned: http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013-mlb-draft/2013/3/18/4119330/2013-mlb-draft-top-prospects-rankings-espn-mark-appel-clint-frazier-astros If someone here has a Baseball America subscription, it would be interesting to see if and where they ranked him on this list from April 4, 2013, just before Gonsalves suspension: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/midseason-update-2013-mlb-draft-top-50/
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Technically, 16 of Jay's 28 relief appearances for Illinois last year fell short of 2 innings. He did average almost 2 innings per relief appearance (55.1 relief), although that was largely impacted by a single 6 inning relief appearance in extra innings versus conference bottom dweller Penn State. And a 2 inning appearance still means only 1 time through the batting order. Still, his college usage was definitely more liberal than a guy like Nick Burdi's. Fairly close to Tyler Duffey's, which might bode well for his starter conversion, although there are still questions about Duffey's effectiveness the second time through the order as a pro too.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    It would be unusual for a coach to publicly criticize the ability of one of his players, regardless of what the coach honestly thought. (Thinking of the Twins moving Sano to RF right now...) And I'm not sure keeping Jay in the pen was a good decision for Illinois at all. They had a good season historically, but it quite likely could have ended better for them. They were ranked as high as #2 in the nation, and no lower than #5, in all the major polls entering the NCAA tournament: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_NCAA_Division_I_baseball_rankings Yet they were swept out of the double-elimination super regional (NCAA final 16), despite home field advantage. Every poll had them ranked ahead of their super regional opponent (although to be fair, that opponent was the preseason #1 Vanderbilt). They also failed to advance any further in the Big Ten tournament than they did in 2014. I previously broke down their tournament usage of Jay here, and it looks like Jay barely mattered (in fact, they turned to a well-rested Jay as a desperation starter facing elimination after their "trusted" starting pitchers put their backs against the wall): http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18552-article-twins-select-tyler-jay-sixth-overall/?p=351940 On last year's midseason top prospects article, I offered this opinion on Jay's college usage: "Personally, I think the team and player got comfortable with the situation early in his college career, and the team didn't really have time to try to develop him as a starter (imagine if the Twins were guaranteed to lose him to another league in another year or two, they probably don't mess with his role either)." In short, it's hard to conclude much about his college stats or usage right now. Will be very interesting to watch him develop this year and going forward.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, you're the one who brought it up to lead off your article. I don't care one bit about the suspension now, but if you really want to drop the topic, I suggest not using it to drive the Gonsalves narrative anymore either.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Is that really what dropped him in the draft, though? It wasn't just Gonsalves who got suspended, it was at least 5 guys. http://www.baseballamerica.com/high-school/suspensions-waylay-cathedral-catholic/ And even the San Diego newspaper at the time reported it was a team rules violation, not an eligibility issue, and it was largely due to the school's own self-imposed zero tolerance policy, meaning the players would have faced only 1 game suspensions at many other schools: http://hs.utpreps.com/news_article/show/249040 I have a hard time believing that MLB scouts were terribly swayed by the incident by draft time in June. Looks like Gonsalves had a drop in K rate and an uptick in BB rate his senior year too. I'd guess that and further scouting observation is what caused his draft stock to drop a bit, it's not exactly unheard of. Amateur scouting is more art than science. http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/stephen-gonsalves/V10dvPTpEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/gendersport/baseball-stats.htm Even BA had Gonsalves (#106) ahead of Stuart Turner (#109) in their May 17 ranking of 2013 draft prospects, yet the Twins chose Turner instead of Gonsalves at #78 overall. If it was just the suspension driving Gonsalves's fall, wouldn't the Twins have been thrilled to land him at #78 instead? http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2013-top-250-draft-prospects-may-17-jonathan-gray-takes-top-spot/
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, a counting stat isn't the ideal comparison. Garza could have been shut down earlier last year if the Brewers were playing meaningful games.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure is a big difference in this regard. I was poking through MLBTR archives recently, we obviously had tons of rumors about signing Hunter and Buehrle. And of course tons of rumors before many of our mid season trades. I think our perception is colored because we don't participate in that many trades, we often try to sign our big FA early in the off season, and when we do pursue trades, they are for less interesting guys (my MLBTR archive search also revealed zero rumors about Jepsen, involving any team, from 2015 prior to our trade for him). So if there were a better 3B market this year, I wouldn't be really comfortable crediting the Twins tight-lipped nature if we didn't hear any activity around him. Of course, it is a moot point since the 3B market was terrible.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Technically, there were a lot of rumors about a Span trade from midseason 2012. But I agree there wasn't a market for Plouffe this winter, I am not concerned if they didn't shop him.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    True, a statistical comp to Morris would be difficult. And a contract comp might be difficult too, as now obviously guys are scoring 6-7 year deals. It was basically a one year, aggressive make-good type of deal for a former superstar, with little downside risk (two player options at lower salary, for a workhorse starter). You can probably find a few moves that fit that profile in the last 15 years, but sadly the Twins haven't made them.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, not sure about that. The 2000s teams got a 2-3 time Cy Young winner in the Rule 5 draft, almost hit on another one as a lotto ticket in Liriano. We had two future MVPs come up at exactly the same time (Mauer and Morneau). We got thoroughly fantastic returns on trading Knoblauch, AJ, and Milton, got surprisingly good seasons out of guys like Lew Ford, Boof Bonser, etc. Joe Mays' peak. The last hurrahs from Shannon Stewart and Jim Thome. Obviously a lot of that we credit to good scouting and development, but the extent of those successes, and the timing, often involved a good deal of luck, the same "luck" that formed the core of the 1987 and 1991 teams (Puckett, Hrbek, Viola and his trade, Shane Mack, etc.). The 2000s teams didn't get lucky on the FA front like the 1991 team, but again, they didn't often try. Kenny Rogers was acquired under very different circumstances than Jack Morris (Rogers was actually paid less in 2003 than Morris in 1991, if you can believe that.) Or even Bert Blyleven on the 1987 team. Rondell White in 2006 made little more than Chili Davis in 1991, and rather than get replaced after a historically awful first half in 2006, we actually re-signed White for the same amount for 2007! (And let Jason Tyner start a pair of postseason games at DH...) We had Mauer, Morneau, and Santana together at their peak from 2006-2008 and did very little with it. We had Santana with Hunter, Radke, Koskie etc. for some years prior to that too, and at least a little bit of Mauer, Morneau, a reborn Lirano for one year, etc. after that, and did very little with those years too. But we never made a trade like Blyleven or Smiley, and never paid a FA like Morris or Davis. Hard to blame the lack of attempts on luck.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, the 1991 team didn't have to make a deadline deal. Had Chili Davis performed like Rondell White 2006, or Jack Morris like Kenny Rogers 2003, or Kirby Puckett gotten injured like Justin Morneau 2010, or Scott Erickson blown out his elbow like Liriano 2006, perhaps they would have? Unrelated, but I just noticed the 1988 team broke camp with two 43 year olds, Joe Niekro and Steve Carlton, only to release both within a month. Maybe that was MacPhail's "Bartlett and Kubel circa 2014" moment?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Quite possibly, but we were outbidding other teams for Morris, it wasn't like we were alone in our valuation of him. And it was actually a creative deal, ahead of its time. $3 mil for 1 year, plus two 1 year $2 mil player options. Got him on a discount with less future risk than Detroit's offer, or Toronto's eventual deal for him. Would be interesting to come up with a modern comp for that player and deal. Not sure it is Hunter, and I'm not sure TR would have been pilloried too much over it..
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Certainly there was luck on Morris' side in 1991, but that was an aggressive expensive deal. Rogers was an uber cheap leftover at the end of spring training. And Morris was only one of three aggressive, expensive top SP adds during the MacPhail era (with Blyleven and Smiley). Kind of dwarfing Rogers and Reed from the TR era. Making their own luck?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt the 1991, the team got lucky, WS winners generally do, but they were fairly aggressive at patching holes and adding depth going into that season. And I have a feeling they might have sought significant improvements mid season had it been necessary, kind of like they did the following winter, dealing for Smiley when Morris left. The 2006 club, not so much. They got lucky too, with Liriano pitching like Cy Young and Mauer and Morneau becoming sudden MVP candidates. Of course, they handicapped themselves early by starting Castro, and then by mid season it was abundantly clear we were contenders but our SP depth was non existent, and our DH pick up was dreadful. No adjustments made, however. 2010 had plenty of good luck too. Morneau played out of his mind, and Liriano re-emerged. Sadly, though, again no major moves made mid season after Morneau went down (except Capps, trading our only viable MLB catcher behind Mauer, setting up 2011...). In fact, we seemingly did very little to expect a different playoff fate than we had met the previous 5 trips. I have a feeling the MacPhail might have sealed the deal on a Cliff Lee trade sometime in 2009 or 2010, done something to address the Morneau situation, and finally have given us a puncher's chance vs NY. I have no real idea what this discussion is about, but that's my post, and I am sticking to it.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Holy cow, I had no idea it was that severe. http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=e932452e That might also have something to do with Stewart's ground ball rate -- I doubt many guys are swinging for the fences under those conditions. And of course, Stewart's total run prevention (including unearned runs, which are especially questionable at lower levels) was notably worse than team/league average in 2015. It wasn't a disastrous season by any means, but it wasn't a particularly good one either in any respect, even accounting for Stewart's age. Barring a dramatic spring turnaround, he almost certainly should start again at the level in 2016.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't if "abysmal" is quite right. Last place in 1990, but we won 74 games. Tapani, Guthrie, and Erickson all pitched less than full seasons in 1990 but were really solid when they took the hill. Similar for Shane Mack on the offensive side, a Rule 5 bench player to open 1990 but a plus starter by the end. We were also expected to address the sink hole at 2B with 100 prospect Knoblauch. Not to mention holdover standout performers Puckett, Hrbek, Harper, and Aguilera. (Plus Junior Ortiz and his .335 batting average ) There was a solid basis for optimism that year, or they wouldn't have been so aggressive in free agency.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    That's the beauty of the internet -- nobody wins. Thanks for doing your best to help Twins baseball from the inside. I have a blast talking about the team, even when I'm complaining. Oh, and thanks for chiming in here, of course. It's fun.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to the great response of markos, I dug up some of my research on Stewart's background too: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/21338-keith-law-ranks-twins-minor-league-system-3-seven-in-top-100/?p=439647
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the response, Mr. Goin. Bill Smith had 20 years in baseball ops too when he took over as GM, and 24 years experience when he was subsequently removed from that role. In 2010, 15 years into Rob Antony's Twins baseball ops tenure (having become Director of Baseball Operations in 1995, before replacing Smith as assistant GM in 2007), when asked if he "were going to sign a free agent, would he go after the guy with a higher RBI total or slugging percentage, Antony replied that he would prefer the player with the higher RBI total." http://www.startribune.com/where-traditional-scouting-and-statistical-analysis-intersect/88615982/ Then in 2014, Antony was the acting GM during the Bartlett and Kubel reunion, featuring Dave St Peter's infamous tweet of amazement "at focus on 25th man on the roster", followed 3 weeks later by the sudden retirement of the club's interesting choice for said 25th man. I am sure they are great people and hard workers who have done a lot of great things for Twins baseball behind the scenes, but you have to forgive me if I am skeptical about their ability to head the baseball side of the organization (again) in a post-TR world.
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