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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    30% of all balls hit in play, yes (BABIP). MLB league average was 29.9% last year. Gerrit Cole was at 30.8%, Jordan Zimmermann was at 30.6%, etc.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Pitch count stuff doesn't work for spring training. MLB Gameday doesn't track each pitch in spring training, only the final result of each plate appearance. It was driving me mad last spring, because people were claiming Trevor May wasn't stretched out enough to start based on his spring training Gameday pitch counts which were absurdly low... they really shouldn't publish them if they aren't working. For other stats, yeah MLB is fine, B-Ref has 'em too.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    If you are just looking at the results of a perfect game in hindsight, of course it doesn't matter how the outs were achieved. But as Brock points out, the predictive power of missed bats and strikeouts is much greater than contact and balls in play, and that kind of predictive power is what we are particularly interested in when evaluating spring training performances.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Looking closer, Quentin doesn't rank particularly high for spring AB so far, and it doesn't appear that he has taken playing time away from anyone, so I wouldn't read too much into it, yet. If it's later this month and he climbs into our top 10 for spring AB, like Kubel and Bartlett did in 2014, then we might have a problem. That's often a precursor to an opening day roster spot.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anyone is evaluating based only on spring training results so far. We're speculating on possibilities and likelihoods, the whole darn point of a fan site. Do you expect us to suspend such comments for a month? I think it's fair to say that Buxton could go to AAA, opening the door for Sweeney to make the team. Given how early it is, the last week probably hasn't moved the needle a whole lot in Sweeney's favor, but it certainly hasn't hurt him either.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. Sounds like Mike Pelfrey from last spring all over again.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Quentin can get that opportunity at AAA. He can't opt out until June 1st. I'm not sure what good there is in giving him priority in March.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about that. A good number of our past roster choices deemed "reliable, professional, consistent" players haven't lasted the season. It sure seems like TR and company perhaps overestimate veteran's abilities to be "reliable, professional, consistent" players at times.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    No 5 man bench. That would mean only a 6 man bullpen, which is almost unheard of these days. Hence why most posters are predicting just two of the guys from this article make the team.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    If the odds are very low that he makes the team, isn't it a little pointless to invest a lot of spring training at bats in him?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Nolasco will not have trade value this spring. I can't emphasize that enough. His last two years have been so bad, and teams are generally loath to make bigger trade additions in March and the early season months. They have their own in-house alternatives they would want to try before giving up an interesting prospect or taking on salary in a suspect like Nolasco.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    That wasn't really the suggestion, though. It was about Nolasco's performance this spring. A 3.00 ERA this spring doesn't give much benefit to the Twins. And it's not really about rooting for someone to fail, or not wanting him to do well. It's really just a wish for some finality around a player who probably doesn't have much of a future here. And that finality could come in two different ways, a dominant performance (unlikely) or a poor performance that closes the book (more likely). The worst and most likely outcome is a middling performance. Plenty of guys have been in this zone for the Twins over the years, although Nolasco is owed more money than most of those guys which probably lowers his acceptable "middling" performance threshold in the eyes of the club (although at the same time, at least he's not in any danger of an undeserved extension!).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, keep in mind that timeline match was 2 years ago for Hicks. Since then, he had a nice half-season repeating AA, a mediocre AAA debut, then a pretty darn awful season at AAA last year (68 wRC+, notably worse than even Turner's suspect 2015 line at AA). Still, if his defense is good, he's not a bad guy to stash at AAA right now, but there's probably a reason he went unclaimed by ~16 teams in November, despite existing in a universe where Drew Butera gets offered arbitration and Chris Herrmann nets a prospect in trade.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite. Hicks finished his first AA season right around his 24th birthday, and Turner finished his a few months before his 24th birthday. So Turner 2016 is a pretty good timeline match for Hicks 2014.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Service time should be a non-issue. I haven't found a single pitcher who ever got the "Kris Bryant" treatment (held back for ~2 weeks to get an extra year of control). Even finding a pitcher who got the "Wil Myers" treatment (called up immediately after the super-2 threshold date) is difficult -- Gerrit Cole is the only one who comes to mind. Teams just don't seem to care about service time games with pitchers. Berrios is a fine prospect, but I'm not sure he's the guy to break the mold. EDIT: I found one pitcher, David Price -- he was called up in September 2008, then kept down until late May 2009, and wound up 8 days short of free agency after the 2014 season. Of course, he was the #1 overall pick and #2 prospect in baseball at the time, and was under some serious pitch count restrictions in early 2009 as the Rays were pacing him for his first full pro season (a season in which he wasn't super effective anyway).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The floor for that article is apparently not making it out of the "draft" stage...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    One thing all of Twins Daily can agree on: if your extension candidate list includes Kurt Suzuki circa 2016, you should probably just shorten your list.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    In the comparison I made of their stats, I was throwing out Gordon's first 2 months at Cedar Rapids. Is that not enough of an adjustment period? At that point Gordon had almost as many career pro plate appearances as Polanco did in rookie league ball. (And it wasn't as if Gordon was just a random high school player before then, he was going to elite national tournaments and showcases since his sophomore year.) And like I showed, going forward from that point, Gordon still under-performed Polanco at the plate, particularly in power and plate approach. I'm not saying that Gordon is destined to be a worse hitter than Polanco or anything, but right now, there is very little evidence to suggest he will clearly overtake Polanco in all 3 of those offensive categories (average, power, and plate approach) as Seth predicted. I don't think most qualitative scouting reports are even predicting that at this point. (Not that he has to overtake Polanco to be more valuable, with his presumed defensive advantage, but that was not the point being discussed.)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I like Rosario, and he might not regress much, but I have a feeling he could be a bit of a stagnation candidate offensively. If he's repeating his 2015 season at the plate, and either Arcia bounces back or Kepler adapts quickly to AAA, I would absolutely reduce Rosario's playing time to make room. Having 4 healthy and contributing outfielders is a good problem to have! Especially if 2 of those outfielders are capable in CF (Buxton, Rosario, maybe Kepler), and up to 2 (Sano, Arcia) should get some games at DH too. (And another reason why getting Sano some games at 3B could help the team as well, but I digress.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. It's certainly possible he develops like that offensively, I'm just not sold yet. Fortunately, we don't have to be sold yet, he's got plenty of time to develop.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually BA and BP each bumped Gordon up by 8 spots in their top 100 lists this year. MLB dropped him 58 spots.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, given some of Kepler's health history, Brantley might be a good ceiling comp across the board.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Oh, definitely on the defensive side. I was just responding to Seth's ranking of future offense.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, yeah, if you assume that Gordon is going to be the best of that group in average, power, and approach, he's probably the best. Polanco at age 19 in Cedar Rapids had a .308 AVG .144 ISO, 8.0 BB%, and 11.3 K%. Gordon at age 19 in Cedar Rapids was obviously worse across the board, even giving him the benefit of the doubt and looking only at his stats from June onward: .304 AVG, .102 ISO, 6.6 BB%, 15.1 K%. Polanco has bested those numbers at pretty much every level, and in his career minor league numbers. Gordon's a couple inches taller, but I have a hard time projecting him higher than Polanco's demonstrated average, power, and approach skills right now.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    It's kind of a chicken-or-the-egg thing, though. His draft slot and scouting reports aren't produced in a vacuum, they are just as prone to be influenced directly or indirectly by his bloodlines and opportunity. No doubt he's a solid prospect regardless, but I think it's fair to question things, especially when "Barry Larkin" starts getting thrown around as a ceiling. Although maybe I'm wrong and Gordon really has that power potential and is a victim of his brother's low power profile.
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