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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I believe May still has an option. He was optioned at the beginning of 2015, but was recalled right away, and if you spend less than 20 days on optional assignment, you don't burn the option year.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    And not only that -- but the Twins tend to target pitchers for their health, reducing the likelihood of injury. If a couple of our opening day veterans were injury fliers, that would be a different story.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Wasn't that the argument for Pelfrey last year? And how much did he help us? He was league average, we went 14-16 in his starts, and we actually skipped his turn in September rather than trust him in a pennant race.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Fien has an option too.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it's fair to suggest they already knew the market for Plouffe.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. There will be some opportunities due to injuries, doubleheaders, etc., but not necessarily the long-term openings that folks seem to assume (i.e. "Duffey up around May 10th, Berrios around June 10th"). It's most problematic in the rotation. If Nolasco stays around career averages (90 ERA+), he could easily last most if not all of the season. And he's the guy with the shortest leash. They have demoted Milone before, but never to the bullpen. In the bullpen, Tonkin is out of options, and I am somewhat surprised that they didn't waive him this spring, so they could do it in-season. Technically Fien and Pressly still have options, but I don't see them getting demoted. I think Abad is pretty safe as a veteran lefty if he's around his career average 105 ERA+ too (the "Duensing effect"). Of course, given the team we brought into spring training, and how they performed, this was probably the team I would have taken north too. I just want to see a quick hook with some of these guys -- league/career average shouldn't be enough to keep a spot for too long.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously it depends a bit on the shape of the performance, but I have a hard time thinking they'd release Nolasco right from the rotation. He'd still likely do a stint as a long reliever like Edwin Jackson did, at least until his replacement established himself and we didn't need him for depth anymore. If another player got injured around the same time, we wouldn't even have to drop anyone from the roster for him. That said, I don't think Nolasco is likely to pitch that poorly.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Not so fast on Jones. The Brewers are putting him on the DL. They still have plenty of time to evaluate him.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think there really is a right time to slip someone through. There are always enough teams looking to snag a player, even if only to put him through waivers themselves a few weeks later. Tonkin should be able to collect MLB paychecks from someone for the next month or two, at least.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    This is about what I predicted from the start, but I really thought they might waive Tonkin to add Kintzler, but I am grateful they didn't. I guess they could still pick up another veteran cast-off this week, but I'd be rather surprised.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, though, Ramos' best/healthiest year was arguably 2011, a year when we had playoff aspirations and absolutely zero depth at catcher which was fully exposed (I still shudder when I look at our B-Ref page for that season, and see Butera listed as our primary catcher). His next best/healthiest years were 2013-2014, the year that Mauer got his concussion and the subsequent season. His presence would have been beneficial to the Twins. His performance didn't fall off a cliff until 2015, when he was making arbitration salaries and only a season removed from full FA, at which time we hopefully would have had a replacement or Plan B at the ready. It was unquestionably a bad trade, in the moment and in hindsight, although you are correct that Ramos' modest health/performance have kept it in the realm of general bad trades. Had he performed better, it could have ranked as one of our worst of all time.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think they would do that. If they wanted Duensing back, or Cotts, or whomever, they would have done it long ago. They like the group they have, for better or worse, and it's not in character for them to deviate from their plans this early (absent a major injury or something).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, they could have made that decision without precluding DH from being an option for Sano for the immediate future. (As well as 3B, where Sano has apparently been ruled out of even backup duty.)
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I too am a bit surprised the Escobar got the pessimistic projection from Seth. Escobar had a below league-average K% last year, and an exactly league average BABIP (for non-pitchers). He's exactly the kind of guy you could project to maintain his batting average, or perhaps even improve it slightly, but Seth has him predicted for a fall, and guys like Rosario and Dozer predicted for a big jump.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, last season should be pretty important, as it represents the only time he's ever faced AAA and MLB pitchers. And he had a .192 ISO last year, a mark he hadn't approached since A-ball. To project him at .175 (second highest mark since A-ball) seems to be based a lot on last season, so why wouldn't we put equal importance on last season's K and BB rates? Arcia saw his K rate jump and his BB rate fall when he reached MLB too. It's a darn tough adjustment, and sometimes guys come out of it looking like very different players (remember when Arcia was thought of as a high-average hitter?). And we've got a full season of evidence suggesting that will happen to Rosario too, and no evidence as of yet that he is going to revert to his pre-2014 minor league forms, judging by his monthly splits last year (and 6 K's vs zero walks this spring too, for what it's worth.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Rosario had a solid season, but as I mentioned in the prediction thread, he's a big stagnation candidate. If he's hovering in the 90-something OPS+ range, it is still useful combined with plus corner defense but it is not something that will block Kepler if he repeats his AA success at Rochester. When combined with Sano getting breaks from RF duty (will happen), and Buxton likely needing breaks as he experiences rookie struggles in CF, plus some propensity for injury among a few of these guys, there is opportunity to break into this outfield. I'm not convinced Kepler will force his way into a spot yet this year though anyway. Repeating his AA success immediately at AAA is a tall order.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Also Seth, you seem to be predicting +.020 in batting average for just about every player. Does that mean you are predicting a big cutback in strikeouts for all of these guys? Sometimes I think it's too easy to add 20 points of batting average as a reasonable expectation for improvement, without considering how they achieve that other than good luck. Rosario, if he strikes out at the same rate in 2016 (and he showed no signs of slowing over the course of the season last year), he would need a 22 point jump in BABIP, up to .354, to achieve your "modest" 15 point increase in average. That .354 would be his best full season BABIP of his pro career to date, at least since rookie league ball. This team, under this hitting coach, hasn't really shown any signs of controlling strikeouts yet. Predicting across the board increases in batting average feels a little like predicting across the board unwarranted strikeout increases for our staff too.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    True, major regression like Danny Santana is unlikely. But I think Rosario is a decent stagnation candidate, hovering in the 90-something OPS+ range. With the extremes he is currently at for strikeouts and lack of walks, I'm not sure how one can predict immediate improvement.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Wasn't it spring 2011 when Joe Nathan couldn't find his velocity? Of course, he was coming back from TJS, although Perk has a bit to prove himself after his injury issues last year.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the report! FYI, Kintzler isn't a lefty.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. You might as well say we couldn't add Park because we'd presumably have to dump someone and lose depth to make room. But you know what? We didn't have to, just moved some guys around. No depth lost. Same here. Nolasco is basically Arcia in the Park situation, getting shifted to a backup/platoon role based as much on his suspect recent health and performance as any new acquisition.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    But certainly you see that while moving Milone could get May into the rotation, it wasn't necessary to get him into the rotation. In fact, it wasn't even the easiest and most expedient way -- let May compete with Nolasco, and let Nolasco earn his way back into the rotation from a bullpen spot if necessary.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, that wasn't necessarily the choice. Keep Milone, put Nolasco in the pen (or at least let May compete with him and "The Duffman" until the end of spring training), and you're done. No SP lost. Now, some posters have certainly suggested dealing Milone, but that absolutely was not necessary to get May into the rotation.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    As far as I can tell, RUNzler gives up runs (5.26 ERA at AAA last year), and KINtzler is almost kin (spent the last 6 years in Milwaukee).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth's roster projection had Buxton in AAA, and Tonkin on the team (as one of 8 relievers).
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