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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Personally, I don't assume he's a No. 2. But it would be nice to give him a chance. It's pretty clear we're already willing to move Nolasco to the pen, so there's your rotation spot for May without reducing starting depth. And the only reason it would severely weaken the pen is because we didn't sign anybody else for the pen, counting on May to be there. Pick up Mark Lowe this winter, or Benoit, etc. and all of a sudden, May isn't critical to the pen. (And if he eventually has to move there anyway, he could be part of a really great pen.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    The rotation isn't completely full, though. We have no long-term commitment to Gibson or Milone, and the end of Nolasco's commitment is in sight too. Clearing one spot isn't that hard to do, we were basically ready to do it for Duffey.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I'm not understanding the Runzler predictions either. Unless they mean Kintzler?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins usually have a lot more than 2 or 3 off days in February. Actually, during the season, 3 off days per month is standard. The only months that don't have 3 off days are July (all-star break) and August (2). But I agree, 7 relievers is by far the likeliest configuration.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Fair enough. Although I don't think we can so easily predict a universal pecking order for all situations. The next starter could be coming up for a doubleheader, or another time specific need.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, the clause you seem to overlooking is IF Meyer does well. If he was doing as well or better than Duffey or Berrios, he might even get a fill-in start or two if his turn happens to line up better. I don't think it is likely that he performs that well again, that quickly, but IF he does, it could happen. He lost his starting gig last year because he sucked, so if they put him back at starter and he performs well again, I don't see why he couldn't reclaim the similar consideration he had before he sucked. Of course, if a bullpen need comes up first, as Chief alludes to, that could take him out of the starting mix.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Meyer is on the 40-man? It's a big "if" to be sure, basically he'd have to start throwing like he did in 2013-2014 again. And if the rotation opening wasn't necessarily long-term, maybe a spot start or two or three while a guy goes on the 15 day DL, that could make it less likely to be Berrios too. I like Berrios, and I am sure the Twins like him, but the idea that he is destined to be first in line to come up, as early as 2 weeks into the season, regardless of everything else doesn't seem likely.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    You were discussing the starting rotation, no? Trevor May is already on the MLB staff, that is not the issue at hand.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    They're not "locked in" to Nolasco, if this spring's competition is to be believed.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Huh? You don't see a lot of mid-tier guys traded, particularly not on multi-year deals. They can be replaced every winter, either with other FA or internal options (just as you recommend for the Twins).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    You might need to update the list from last year, Oliveros and Jones are no longer in the Twins org. (I admit Jones might come back, although it sounds like the Brewers are setting up to stash him on the DL as much as they can.) Signs point to Tonkin joining them in a week or so.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure. Like I said, maybe it's a one-year blip. We don't know yet. Pedro Alvarez doesn't prove that Plouffe won't be below average again in 2016. Players can repeat in this category, contrary to your earlier claim. And even though great hitters can lead their league in GIDP as Seth claimed, Plouffe will lose a greater share of his value by performing poorly in this regard. So we mention it and we monitor it going forward. Not sure what is so difficult to understand about that. If we were discussing adding Alvarez this winter and he turned in this poor DP performance last year, I think it would have been worth noting. There is nothing wrong with a simple mention of it (again, not prediction, not conclusion) in a discussion about Plouffe.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I think that's a record, 11 hours and 17 minutes between double posting.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    There's a bit of that, but there's also "why did we sign a DH project too?" The Twins had multiple decision points where they didn't have to put Sano in the outfield. You could go back to our decision to forego positional flexibility with post-catching Mauer too...
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think those two statements are congruent. They clearly wanted to win the bidding on Park regardless of whether they "expected" to, because they didn't want Sano to be a full time DH. That's fine, but that is clearly their decision, which is what people are questioning. It's not like Park materialized from out of nowhere as manna from heaven and they had to rearrange, or even like, say, Denard Span's performance jump in 2008. The Twins went out of their way to acquire Park (with a record posting fee bid for a Korean player, no?).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, if the rotation is stocked with "quality depth." But I'm pretty sure Hughes and Santana will be there whether they are good or not that good. Nolasco seems to still be in the pole position for another spot. Gibson and Milone probably don't need to improve to keep their spots either. That's the kind of rotation that you hope repeats 2015 but probably won't improve on it. Could be worse, of course, but it doesn't exactly absolve the handling of May.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure if this is a joke, those are kind of important substitutions, no? The Cubs have a starting catcher with a career 104 OPS+ (Montero), that's probably a more useful/valuable asset than a third baseman with a career 99 OPS+ (Plouffe). The bar for Schwarber to clear is much higher than Sano. And that's not even getting into Mike's point above, that the Twins also have the DH position (where Schwarber started the majority of Cubs interleague games last season). Or that perhaps the Twins haven't handled Mauer's position change optimally (locking him into 1B every day).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    No, not really. I mean, maybe the raw GIDP leader changes from year to year as Seth pointed out, but every year the worst group in terms of percentage and runs below average is predominantly catchers and slow corner players (and pitchers, although they usually have few opportunities). The catchers thing is particularly instructive because those guys aren't necessarily batting at the heart of the order. I think it's worth noting that Plouffe performed in that group in 2015. Sometimes an odd random name slips into the group for a single season, and hopefully that was Plouffe's case, although it doesn't take any advanced stats to suggest he fits the profile of a perennial GIDP offender as a slow corner player who is turning 30 this year. And that could be worrisome, because Plouffe doesn't have a lot of excess value to lose like, say, Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera was 32 runs above average overall last year, so losing 3 to DPs wasn't a big deal. Plouffe was only 2 runs above average overall, so losing 4 to DPs kinda puts a bigger dent in his value.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Note I didn't say "mop up man" although long relief sometimes does come in those situations. But the Twins used Francisco Liriano (#6 prospect in MLB) in that role to begin 2006, and Johan Santana (our most effective starter in 2002) in that role to begin 2003. I don't see why they'd hesitate to use May in the role to begin 2016 assuming they like the rest of their pen. Could simply be a response to the back issues May was having down the stretch last year, preventing him from appearing in back to back games anyway.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Either that, or we can assume that Tonkin has been replaced with a pitching machine. There are other stats that seem to back up that assumption too.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    See my post above. Even looking past the raw number and correcting for opportunities, it was not a good performance in double play avoidance, and detracted from Plouffe's value by almost half a win by itself. As you note, so far it has been a one-year aberration for Plouffe, although he's not noted for his quickness afoot and he's only getting older, so I'm not sure if we should expect a full reversion to his pre-2015 numbers either.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth's "Road to 1000 Runs" update: But he only projects Plouffe to match his career high OPS -- I guess that counts as "pessimism" by comparison.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The raw GIDP number is a counting stat, but there are other ways to look at it. B-Ref has both GIDP percentage in opportunities, and also Rdp, the number of runs better/worse than an average batter in those same DP opportunities. Plouffe's percentage was 22%, near the league lead around a bunch of catchers, Aramis Ramirez, Billy Butler, etc., and his Rdp was -4, tied for worst in MLB. His opportunities were comparable to his previous few seasons, but his GIDP skyrocketed. Plouffe "added" another -3 runs from baserunning. It may not seem like much, but those -7 runs completely canceled out the +7 runs above average he added by batting and fielding in 2015, according to B-Ref. Average batting is still way above replacement, of course, and Plouffe gets another little WAR boost for his position, and 2015 was by far his worst season in those DP/baserunning measures, but hopefully it's not a trend that continues!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe, but I get the impression they really like Abad. They were all set to open with 1 lefty middle reliever last year too (Duensing) before the Santana suspension. And the other lefty candidates you mention can all be shipped to Rochester, and none have any kind of veteran's claim to a MLB roster spot like Kintzler or Pressly. Would be curious who is designated the long reliever (over 2 innings) in this pen, without Nolasco. Darnell is about the only guy left who could do it, but I don't see them adding him back to the 40-man so quickly after removing him. It might default to Trevor May, if they think the closer/setup situation has otherwise improved since the second half last year.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it is. When guys like Fien, Abad, or Kintzler go north, like Boyer, Stauffer, Burton, Duensing, Gray, etc. before them, they tend to be locked into a roster spot all year, outside of the rare epically bad/injury case like Stauffer. Depth is good but it's not so useful when you sacrifice the flexibility necessary to employ it.
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