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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    If Duffey goes to AAA and Nolasco goes to the rotation, that would open another pen spot, no? I could see both Pressly and Kintzler in that scenario. Not that I endorse it, just that it is plausible.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure what you mean? Isn't that what I said? They usually use their preferred guys against the other team's preferred guys.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. You can use it to help explain good/bad spring performances, but as we all know there is so much noise in those numbers anyway, it is hard to adjust them to anything too meaningful. So instead I look at it less as another "stat" and more as a record of opportunities/priorities.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    There is a pretty well established order in spring training that most managers follow. It is not super precise, there will be times when a starter comes out early or an unexpected scrub makes an early appearance, but over a month it is probably a pretty good indicator. And I am not suggesting making a call on this data -- it is simply a rough quantification of decisions/priorities already made. I'd use it to say that Kintzler is probably more likely to make the club than his non-roster status would suggest, and that O'Rourke is probably the reverse. But certainly multiple ways this could play out among that group.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't say it meant a ton, but it is probably the most useful quantitative measure in ST. Abad is a lock, and his 8.8 represents that. Like any measure, its relative usefulness lessens as the gap narrows, but it can still be useful even if isn't definitive.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, that is the whole point. If the manager is only sending a guy out to face scrubs, that tells us something about their evaluation of the player.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    You can read up on it at B-Ref. It is who they are facing in spring training, what level those guys were at last year. A nice shortcutt look at who is get priority reps in ST. Actually does a darn good job of predicting the 25 man roster in most cases.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Fien is a lock because he is guaranteed $2.28 million. We're past the point where we can cut arbitration eligible players for one month termination pay.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, I am noticing a trend in your predictions so far. Murphy: you predict a career high OPS Suzuki: you predict a +.044 OPS bounceback Mauer: you predict a big +.071 OPS bounceback Dozier: you predict a career high OPS (by +.037 over 2014, and +.048 over last year) At this rate, do you realize you might be "predicting" the Twins to have the best record in baseball?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    By B-Ref Opposition Quality faced this spring: Kintzler 8.4 Tonkin 8.1 Pressly 7.8 Runtzler 7.7 O'Rourke 6.8 I'd lean Pressly, but I wouldn't be surprised if they try to go with Kintzler assuming they can free up another 40-man roster spot.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Hopefully, his agent's pre-emptive complaints were the result of really seeing the writing on the wall (Milone and Duffey as virtual locks).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Abad is a lock. By B-Ref's Opposition Quality measure, he's at 8.8, equal to Perkins and third highest among all Twins pitchers. He was in the pole position before spring training started and has done nothing to lose that spot (and nobody has clearly overtaken him). Runtzler is 7.7, O'Rourke at 6.8.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, I thought the June 1st opt out date was standard for minor league contracts of veterans with 6+ years of MLB service time, but according to the Cristian Guzman example in this article, that only applies if they finished their MLB contract the previous year: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/new-cba-clause-alters-terms-of-select-minor-league-contracts/ That means the standard opt out clause, as well as the "retention bonus" due at the end of spring training if he wasn't added to the MLB roster, wouldn't apply to Quentin (who was released last April, then retired from a minor league contract in May), nor would they apply to Sweeney who was also released last April. Quentin must have negotiated his June 1st opt out clause, so I'm seeing less of a team imperative to let him go earlier as part of a gentleman's agreement. And Sweeney apparently has no opt out at all. https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/712322021623865345
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Check the minor league forum here: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/21712-twins-release-nine-from-minor-league-camp/
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, while I don't think the Twins would force Quentin to go to AAA when a real MLB opportunity was available elsewhere, remember the Twins have made a fair investment in him so far -- a bunch of spring training playing time. I don't think they want to reward other teams by making Quentin available for free, when those other teams quite possibly weren't willing to make that investment of spring training playing time. That's going to hurt the team's bargaining position in the long run, relative to other teams. So it's not quite as simple as doing the "right thing" for the player. I'm not so sure the Twins would be willing to flat-out release him so he could go elsewhere, they will probably insist on some kind of token return.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with your take, but I wonder how this specifically works in practice. If he's property of the Twins, other teams can't talk to him, correct? I know teams can waive that, like the Johan trade and extension talks, but that was the team broaching the subject with the other club. I wonder if a player or his agent can call another team and say, "hey you got room for me? it's okay, I've got permission to talk to you." Or if it would be the Twins that would have to contact other teams on Quentin's behalf first.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm a little worried that the increase in K's was a result of a more aggressive approach to rebound after his 2011 maladies. I don't know if he can cut them out with further aggressiveness. I know we usually only predict slash lines, but like the past couple years, I feel like Mauer's K rate will be the bellwether stat. If he can cut it down to 12-13%, I like his chances of hitting the more optimistic projections here. If it stays constant in the 17% range, I am not confident he can make up enough ground elsewhere (power, extreme BABIP) to do it.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That also looks like his second half 2014 stats: .289/.397/.408 I wouldn't call it my median projection, but again, this is definitely possible if he can find that "good hitter finds his stroke for a full season" mojo that gunnarthor alluded to upthread.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. That quoted stat line would be a .154 isolated power, the third highest mark of his career (behind his top two batting title seasons of 2006 and 2009). It's possible that a player could adjust and develop more power as they age, but Mauer doesn't seem a real likely case for that. FWIW, the two other age 30-something rebounds cited in the article (Morneau and Span) featured little if any dramatic difference in power. A cut in K rate and a rebound in BABIP seemed to fuel those, and it seems that is the most likely path for a Mauer rebound too.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, there aren't a lot of samples with meaningful or instructive results. That's sort of the problem with projecting concussion cases. Which is why it's probably better, at this point (2.5 years removed from the event), to just ignore the concussion altogether, which ultimately I think you did in your projection. Mauer was once a great hitter, who has been a mediocre one the past two seasons. It's possible he will adjust and rebound to be a good hitter again at age 33. The projection systems certainly believe 2015 was not his true talent level, heck they have him marginally besting his 2014 performance too. But those statements, and those projections (as well as yours), really have very little to do with the concussion anymore. To steal a phrase from you, Mauer "is who he is." Sorry, don't mean to nitpick, I just get "predicting concussion rebound" fatigue, especially when it's just rehashing the Morneau example, and cherry-picking sample to try to fit Span into the same mold.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure. Your "one single every 3 weeks" argument just sounded like an appeal to luck, though. Projections should be viewed as a range, with the final number presented as the most likely number in that range. A projection of .745 means that .790 is quite possible (one more single every 2-3 weeks, as you say). But, that shouldn't be used to justify a separate projection of .790, because a projection of .790 means that .835 is quite possible, much more so than the range implied by the .745 projection. I think Mauer could hit .790 this year, with luck, but it will be awfully hard for him to hit .835 without an excessive amount of luck. So I'd probably endorse the .745 projection instead. .790 is possible, but it just feels too close to an optimistic upper limit for my taste as a projection, by which a lot of us already got burned when projecting Mauer last year.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I'll agree with that. But that means it's mostly junk science to try to predict, especially based on a sample size of two, and especially when you are stretching the legitimacy of one of those samples (Span). I wouldn't project Mauer to improve in 2016 because Morneau improved in 2014, so it's pretty much not relevant. Now, if you look at how Morneau improved in 2014, he posted a career low strikeout rate and the highest full season BABIP of his career. That's a lot more than just time elapsed since the concussion, and it's rather tough to do.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    But that argument could go either way. Starting with those ~.745 OPS projections, if he lost one single every three weeks, he'd be right back at last year's .718 OPS. And if one bought ~.745 OPS as being roughly his "true talent" level right now, you'd have to conclude he was a little unlucky last year (-.040 OPS), but that wouldn't mean you'd project him to get a little lucky (+.040 OPS) this year. You should project to neutral luck. A true talent .250 hitter that goes 0-4 one game shouldn't get projected to go 2-4 the next.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    There is zero statistical evidence that Span's concussion affected his long-term performance at all. His 2011 wRC+ when he suffered the concussion (two months): 108 His 2012 wRC+ (full season): 104 His wRC+ from April 2010 through June 2011 (8 months prior to the concussion): 93 His wRC+ from August 2011 through September 2012 (8 months after the concussion): 95 His first season in Washington: 96 Morneau's effects are obviously much clearer, although it's not at all clear that he "came back strong three years after" -- it could be he was the same physically in 2014 as he was in 2012 (his first full year back) but had simply made further adjustments/refinements to his game in 2014 (aided by a new home park too). Which is something that applies to lots of players at that stage of their career (age 33 season) regardless of concussion status. Of course, Mauer could make adjustments now too, but the point is, it's not as simple as time removed from the injury.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, for fun, I googled your projections for last year. http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/2015-projections-and-rankings-joe-mauer-r3495 By "The Price Is Right" rules, I think Parker won.
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