LA VIkes Fan

I'm right there with you and I think you have named the two guys to go after - Fullmer and Rogers. We "should" be able to get both for $12m or less. That leaves enough for Correa and a catcher like Navaez. Trade Kepler for prospects. IF you can get Chris Bassitt, also trade Urshela for prospects and turn 3B over to Miranda, leaving 1B for Arraez and Kirilloff. Now you have your Basitt money. All that leaves in my mind is how to get a RH OF/1B/DH to put in the middle of the lineup. That would then require either raising the payroll (nice thought) or trading prospects (probably at least one pitcher) for that bat. Both are eminently doable. I like Josh Bell or Trey Mancini for the RH hitter role.

I like these ideas. None of these 3 are likely to be lights out back end guys but each could provide some critical mid level depth. I would like to see them re-sign Fullmer for 2 years like you have it, and would actually give Rogers a little more if necessary, maybe 1/$7 with an option at 1/$9. He is left handed and breathing with some track record so he may be popular. May is a bigger risk so I would only sign him to the kind of incentive based deal that you mention.

Interesting. What happened to Miranda? Back at AAA?

Hey, I'm with you on that. Here's a thought, sign Vasquez - 3 years 27m (9 per), Bogaerts - 7 years 196m (28 per), Chri1sBassitt - 4 years 72m (18 per).

You're right about that. My bad. I made the change to Taylor, not Trevor. hey, tomato, tomato...

This is a tough exercise. There just isn't any way to adequately fill all of our needs at SS, SP, RP, C, OF and stay within a 140m budget. So I didn't. I'm a little over with a 2 players who could be dropped to get to $140m. Here's what I did: SS - Sadly said goodbye to Correa and instead signed Xander Bogaerts to a 7 year, $196m deal - $28m a year. SP - Got priced out on Rodon and signed Chris Bassitt instead to a 4 year, $72M deal - $18m a year. Would have him #1 and move Gray and Mahle down. BP- Moved Maeda to the BP but kept his $9m assumed cost, could be lower given his contract. See the Twins re-signing him to a 3 year deal with some extra money to convince him to go to the BP full time. Re-signed Fullmer for $3,m. Added back our old friend Taylor Rogers at $7m on a 3 year, $21m deal. Both Maeda and Rogers may come in cheaper than where I have them. C- Got priced out of Vasquez, signed Navaez for 2 years, $12m. Would rather have Vasquez if he could be had for 6-7m instead of the 8.5-10m I think he'll get. Trades - Had to make payroll room so I traded Urshela and Kepler for prospects. Moved Miranda to 3B, with Kiriloff/Larnach/Gordon to RF/LF, Except.... OF/DH - Signed Trey Mancini to a 2 year $20m deal to be a LF/DH. Would love that player to be Josh Bell as a 1B/DH but he's probably too expensive. Also brought up Martin as a UTL but that could be a number of different guys. Just don't want it to be Garlick again. Mancini is the guy I could lose to get down to a $140m budget. I think we need a RH hitting power guy to hit 4th or 5th so really want to keep one of them. Would prefer to lose Rogers and have Sands or Henriquez fill that spot in the bullpen or sign a deal with Maeda to lower his 2023 cost. ? Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Jose Mranda ($0.70M) SS: Xander Bogearts ($28.00M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) DH: Trey Mancini ($10.00M) 4th OF: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.70M) Backup ? Omar Navaez ($6.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Chris Bassitt ($18.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Baily Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) RP: Michael Fullmer ($3.00M) RP: Taylor Rogers ($7.00M) Payroll is 1.20% over budget

Here's a good 4th reason - Jeffers is the best we got and there isn't anyone else out there who isn't going to cost a lot in prospects. Sean Murphy? I'd love to get him but the cost starts with Lewis or Lee PLUS a quality pitching prospect. Contreras? It's him OR Correa, not both, I'd rather have Correa. Here's my thought - Christian Vasquez. Great concept but probably 8-9m a year for multiple years. Tough for a 32 year old catcher. Might even be more and will he leave Houston after winning the World Series for a team that won 78 games a year ago? If he would, we could fit him in AND get Correa and maybe Rodon, but only if if we traded Kepler and Urshela for prospects to free up salary room. Maybe that works because we have Miranda and Larnach/Kirilloff/Gordon to play their spots. To me, there are 2 good choices. Choice 1 - get Vasquez, move Urshela to 3B and Larnach or Gordon to RF, trade Kepler and Urshela, sign Corrrea and Rodon. Choice 2 - go with Jeffers, sign one of the usual suspects (Navaez, Barnhardt, Leon), trade Urshela and/or Kepler, sign Correa and Rodon, sign a quality relief pitcher (Robertson?). Likely Twins move - sign Navaez, keep Kepler and Urshela, sign Elvis Andrus to play SS, sign Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana, Michael Wacha, or Tijuan Walker as a SP, roll with the bullpen as is.

Doesn't this depend a little on who else we have and who we can get? Duran has shown himself to be an elite reliever. We don't know if he can replicate that as a SP or if he can remain healthy in that role. Yet, I think many of us would agree that the biggest, hardest to fill hole on the Twins (as on most teams) is a true #1 starter. Second toughest? A true shutdown closer. Duran has the talent to be either guy and we don't really have anyone else close unless SWR can be that #1 starter. It would probably take 2 seasons for Duran to make the transition to a full time starter and he's arguably already the shut down closer or close. I do think it's pretty clear that a #1 starter has more value and is harder to buy than a shut down closer. If we can get a Robertson type closer, I say give Duran a shot at starting. If we can get a Rodon type starter, keep him in the pen. If we don't sign either, on balance I would leave him where he is although to me it's a very close call. The injury risk tips the scale for me. My take: let's see what else we have after FA before deciding.

$75m is definitely enough to get somebody's attention.

I agree that the current payroll can handle one large contract fairly comfortably. The real question is to me, is that one contract for a pitcher, a shortstop, or can we afford both? I think a pitcher gives you more value but higher injury risk, and the drop off from the top pitchers to the next level is pretty steep. I think we can afford both as long as one of the contracts is in the $35 million year range and one of the $20 million a year range or some combination that adds up to $50 – $55 million. Dump Kepler and that goes up $5m-$8.5m. Maybe Correa and Bassitt? Bogearts and Rodon? Correa and Rodon with no Kepler and no Urshela? I vote for signing Correa long term now, trading Kepler for prospects to free up another $8.5m, keeping Urshela, and spending the other $20-$30m million on a combination of Bassitt, David Robertson or Corey Kenebel, and Christian Vasquez. That may be more than we've got to spend but a guy can dream right?. Will be fascinating to see.

Just an FYI on how state income taxes work for pro athletes, entertainers, etc., people who put on "shows" in various states. Each game is a game check and you pay taxes in the state in which that game check is earned. So, Corey Seager still pays California income tax, the difference is that he pays it only on California source income, i.e, the prorated portion of his compensation earned when the Rangers play in the state. These guys all file 20-30 state tax returns every year to account for the income they earn by playing or appearing in states with an income tax. So, the lack of a Texas state income tax is a real difference but it's not like it's a tax vs. non tax difference. The worst place to play for income tax purposes is New York City. There, you pay New York City income tax (3-4%) as well state and federal income taxes. Still, if you want to be a star you gotta play in NY and LA . . .

I Interesting numbers in the Analyst article. The Athletic was not so complementary, It estimated that guys like Seager and Kepler would only get another 1 or 2 hits a month because the SS would be an inch on the left side and the 2B should be right where these guys hit the ball. The Athletic analysis seems to be better supported by actual experience at the AA level according to the article. I tend to agree with the Athletic analysis, I think we're talking an 8-10 hits a season increase and Kepler's bating average goes from the .217 he's averaged over the last two years to .235 - .240. Better, but still 4th OF material. Max doesn't get to the .270 range until he hits the ball better to LF. At age 30, that seems like a long shot. Besides, even if Kepler hit .250-.260 with his other stats, that's a guy who you always looking to upgrade from in a corner OF position because of his lack of power. He's a classic 4th OF or platoon guy - Great glove, professional ABs, doesn't quite hit enough overall to start, and can't hit same sided pitching. I like Kepler on the team as a 4th OF who plays CF when Buxton is out or DHs. But he HAS to play CF to be a real asset. I don't like him as an everyday starter and I really don't like him hitting below the 7th spot in the order. I like him the best as a guy we package in a trade for an above average SP or rock solid reliever, but that's a whole 'nother issue.

I like this, except I think both guys will get more from somebody else. I would be fine with making these offers and moving on if not accepted. I think the more likely route is a trade for someone like Lopez in Miami or Merrill Kelly in Arizona. Interestingly, both are roughly .500/high 3s ERA pitchers in their careers although both were good last year. There isn't a lot out there that beats that Sonny Gray threshold. Bottom line, it seems to me very unlikely that the Twins are going to sign a high end SP, and a 50/50 shot at best that they will trade for one. I expect us to go into 2023 with the same group.

This take makes sense to me. I think Polanco is the Plan B at SS if we can't re-sign Correa. If we did trade him, I think Gordon is the replacement if his hitting last year wasn't a flash in the pan. Arraez is not a great replacement given his defensive and injury issues and both Martin and Julien are at least a year away. Plus, Polanco is one of our 3-4 best hitters so there's a real offensive downgrade with replacing him. I doubt if we trade him. There is one scenario where I do think trading Polanco makes sense - if we re-sign Correa and want to free up money to also add a quality starting pitcher, everyday RH hitting OF, LH hitting catcher, or back end bullpen piece. We need a SS, higher end starter, LH hitting catcher, and a closer (if we put Duran in the rotation). I could see them re-signing Correa, trading Polanco to free up $$ in a package him with someone like Larnach and a prospect for a good starter and good BP guy, RH OF or catcher, and using the $$ to fill one of the other holes. Gordon starts out at 2B with some Arraez there also, and Lewis becomes the 2B at mid-season. Easier transition for him. This is probably more than the FO is willing to consider but does offer a way to fill some holes.

I think the two pitchers we presently have with Ace potential are Duran and SWR. Woods- Richardson has the pedigree and performed in the minors last year to the tune of a 2.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He's only 22 and is already at the AAA level. While he isn't overpowering in the Justin Verlander sense, all of the scouting reports say he has a good feel for pitching and that his secondary stuff has the potential to be plus pitches. I think he has a pretty good chance of being a legit #1/#2 and an outside chance of reaching the Ace level. Duran is the guy who could legitimately be a #2/#3 guy starting next year and an Ace within 2 or 3 years IF he doesn't get hurt. I can see why the Twins don't want to risk such a dominant reliever but guys like this don't come along very often. If we could get Lopez to pitch like he did for the Orioles in the first half of 2022 or develop another high end closer, I'd definitely give Duran a chance to start and take the risk. Maybe Maeda can be that back end guy as his career winds down - change his contract to give him that incentive - and we can give Duran his shot in the rotation. I think it's worth the risk.

Any metrics available out there on whether Urshela has the range to cover SS? I have to admit I kind if shudder a little at the thought of a left side of the infield with Urshela and Miranda. Seems like a defensive nightmare waiting to happen. Urshela paired with a strong defensive 3B might work but I don't think we have that guy. I think we are at least one cycle away from fixing the SS revolving door and that's if Lewis is the answer. If he isn't, we're farther away. I say offer Correa $35-37m a year for 7-8 years. If he declines that offer, the likely result, sign Elvis Andrus and commit to Lewis as the starting SS when's physically ready. Use the money for pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Sign at least Rondon and Fullmer, and then trade one of the young starting prospects plus Larnach for a good young RH hitting OF. Maybe Larnach and Ober to the Pirates for Reynolds? Slight underpay by the Twins so maybe we add Sabato or Noah Miller? In short, I'm hoping for one of 2 things given our real budget issues (1) a combination of moves that gets us a real SP to head the rotation, a good bullpen piece, plus a trade for a young, good hitting RH OF bat, and Lewis playing SS every day by mid-July. That's the deal above. (2) Sign Correa AND a good SP like Rondon, live with the heavily LH OF we have until Lewis is ready and then make him the LF to balance the lineup.

I think you're spot on with what will probably happen in terms of an offer. My guess is that he turns it down, signs for 8-10 years at 340m, and that the placeholder is Elvis Andrus on a 1 yr/6-8m deal.

I would love to see the Twins make Kepler the 4th OF and play him in CF when Buxton is out or DHs. Unfortunately, I don't think Rocco will do that. He didn't play Kepler in CF when he should have this year, and he trotted out Kepler almost every day until he was hurt even though his offense was hurting the team. He even hit Kepler in the middle of the order long after it became clear that he was at best at number 7 or 8 hitter. I would like to see them trade Kepler because if they don't I think this FO/manager combo will play him as a regular. He just isn't a regular on a good team. Larnach, Kirilloff (if healthy), Wallner, Gordon (if not the SS), and any RH bat they can acquire should all start ahead of him. Not because we know they will be better in the case of everyone except Gordon who is better if he's the 2022 version, but because they have the potential to be better and need the shot to play. Kepler is what he is at age 30 and what he is on a good team is the 4th OF who plays CF and the corners. I just don't trust this team to play him that way so I would prefer he was traded for whatever level prospect we can get.

I agree here with only 2 comments. First, assuming they don't re-sign Correa and think Lewis can play SS when he gets back, I am completely against signing a fill-in placeholder type to play SS. That fills a roster spot and does little for you other than slightly improve the defense over a combination of Gordon, Polanco and Palacios. Give Gordon first crack at the spot and tell him that NOW so he can work on his fielding over the winter. It's a win-win on both sides if he can be even a little below average at the spot. Second, I love your idea of a RH hitting corner OF and trading Kepler. I just am not a big fan of Tommy Pham at 34 years old. I might think about AJ Pollock (also 34) Trey Mancini, or Mitch Hanigar. Maybe even Martin or Prato can make the jump from AA. Otherwise, good plan.

Lot of good comments here about the roster for next year. Obviously, the key is Correa. Keep him AND add a quality SP - either a FA like Rondon or trade corner OF and pitching prospect to Miami for Lopez (or something similar) - and I think you can run the same group back with Winder or Sands as a long man in the BP instead of Megill. No Correa and Polanco and Gordon play SS and 2B and we better get Rondon and Benintendi/Josh Bell. Just so much uncertainty going into 2023. Is Larnach the quality hitter we've seen in stretches or the easy out we've also seen? Will Kirilloff ever play at the MLB level again and, if he does, will the wrist injuries sap all of his power? Are Miranda and Gordon the 2022 versions again or do they get better or fall off? The rotation actually looks fairly solid 2-5 but where do we get a #1 starter? The back end of the BP is pretty good, what about those 5-8 spots? 2022 was supposed to help answer those questions but instead has lead to even more uncertainty. The 2023 Twins look like a lot of Twins teams in the past - about 2/3 to 3/4 of a contending team with the big holes in the most crucial spots, we're short a #1 starter and one middle of the order bat. And that's with Correa coming back. With him gone we are closer to 1/2 to 2/3 of a contending team because now we're short 2 middle of the order bats on a team that was mediocre to poor offensively to start out with. Plan? Add a top end starter (Rondon, Lopez, someone similar) and a middle of the order bat (Benintendi, Bell, someone similar). If Correa leaves, don't pick up a defense first lousy mediocre vet like Iglesias, play Polanco or Gordon and live with the defensive downgrade for the offensive upgrade. Trade, release, do something so that Pagan and Kepler are not on the team next year. Current management cannot be trusted to only use either as a bench/spot player. Find a spot to play Miranda, Larnach, and Kirilloff (if healthy) every day for a least the first half of the season to see if they can play. Put Maeda in the BP to start, re-sign Taylor Rogers, and leave Gray, Ryan, Mahle, and Ober in the rotation with SWR, Varland, and Winder as backups. See if that works through the 2023 ASB. If it doesn't, blow it up. Trade our vets and play only the young guys. Move on.

Hard question for me to answer since I did predict 78-84 before Correa was acquired and then switched to 88-74 (I think). Frankly, this year was about what i expected.

This sounds right to me. I see 2023 as running out the same guys and seeing if we get better health and thus a better result. IF we have better health, this team could "contend" if that means being in contention for the division title or a playoff berth but not really having much hope of a deep playoff run. With the guys you have if they are all healthy we have a solid rotation missing a number one starter, about two thirds of a good bullpen with quality at the top end but lacking depth, and a pretty good lineup missing one quality middle of the order bat if we keep Correa, two if he goes. That probably is good enough to contend in that division and, if it isn't, we'll probably know about midseason and can make trades and embark on a rebuild. While I would love to see the Twins sign Correa, plus a true number one starter and a middle of the order bat, I think that is a fantasy. My prediction is that they actually sign Correa to a 5-7 year deal and do basically nothing else other than maybe signing Sonny Gray for another two or three years, both with at most limited no – trade protection. The pitch is then "look at us, we re-signed Buxton and now re-signed Correa, we are on our way to contention". They then see how it plays out and make the decision on where to go midseason with both trying to contend and a tear down and rebuild on the table. If it works, great, if not they trade most of the veterans they have including Correa and Gray and start a full rebuild.

It's true. I'm both a football and baseball fan and watch both on TV. I would much rather watch a playoff ballgame between two teams I don't follow that up layout baseball game between two teams I don't follow. Why? Because football is better entertainment. It is more fun to watch, there is twice or three times as much action in a three-hour football game that there is a 3.5 hour baseball game, and it is "win or go home" not just a game in the series. And I'm almost 65 years old; my three sons aged 32, 30 and 28 all like both sports but are much more interested in watching a football game that a baseball game. This is baseballs existential problem. The product is not sufficiently fast-paced or exciting for modern America. It is already way behind football, and is being passed by the NBA of all things. I hope the new rules help but what needs to happen the most is the game needs to be cut down to 2 1/2 hours or less, including breaks and commercials.

Correa is the best player we have had for a number of years and the Twins have the opportunity to sign him long term. All we have to do is pay the market value or close to it for his services. That's all he's saying. I'm a little surprised people are upset or put off by that statement. The good news is we got a one-year trial and both sides seem to be interested. That was the best we could possibly hope for and frankly that is exactly the way the contract was structured - a one-year trial for both sides who can now decide whether they want to go forward. I think we should go forward and try to sign Correa long-term. I don't think we have another shortstop on the horizon with Lewis having torn his ACL now twice, Palacios unable to hit, and Lee an unknown. A quality free agent shortstop is going to cost almost as much as Correa or maybe even more and we will not have the depth of experience with that player. I am completely against signing mediocre veterans on one-year deals to cover shortstop. How much? I would absolutely give him five years, $200 million but I don't think that's going to carry the day. I think he'd be looking for at least seven years and probably north of $250 million. To me, that would be worth it but it's not my money. The real conundrum I see is I think we need to sign one top end starter to go with him, and then I think we can carry the rest of the team with what we have. I would love to see them sign Correa long-term and sigh a three or four year deal with Carlos Rondon, run the rest of the team back and see how we do. Actually, I would like to see them sign Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom but neither one of those two is coming to Minnesota and we couldn't afford them even if they wanted to come. I would also think about trading young pitching with real upside like SWR, Ober, Varland, etc. to a bad team that happened to have one really good starter but I'm not aware of any such situation.

I agree with you here. I originally saw Urshela as a starter on a second division club but he has won me over. I think he can be a starter on a contender hitting 6 or 7. I'd like to keep him. I do think we're a little over subscribed in the corners. My solution would be to trade Kepler and keep Urshela. By the way, I really think that's the key decision based upon who we have and where they can play.