LA VIkes Fan

Agreed. I think Ober starts out the year as the #1 in St. Paul unless there is an injury in preseason with one of the top 5. Given Mahle's shoulder, Maeda coming back from TJ, Lopez' injury track record prior to 2022, and Gray's hamstring issues, Ober will get at least 15 MLB starts this year, probably more. Combined with AAA starts, i see him pitching roughly 120-130 innings this year as we try to build him up for a full starter's load in 2024 at the MLB level. No way he goes to the bullpen. Henriquez and Sands both look like long relievers to me and I could even see Henriquez becoming a late inning guy. I think both have value in that role; probably not MLB starters long term. Winder is the tough one. He has the arsenal to be an effective 2/3 starter but not the shoulder. I wouldn't be surprised if he made the team in the remaining bullpen spot, and stayed there after injury with Ober, then SWR, then Varland, as the next men up for the rotation. Still, I'd like to give him one more year's try as a starter since good ones are so hard to find. Maybe Ober and Winder in AAA as starters with Henriquez or Sands in the opening day bullpen. Last chance for Winder. More physical issues this year and he goes to the bullpen. He could be a real asset there long term but let's give him one more chance to hold up as a starter.

Mike, I agree with your thinking but I just have no confidence things will work out that way. Based on what we've seen in the past, I think that Rocco will start and play Kepler every day if he is not injured even if he continues to hit around .225 with only occasional power. I would be fine with the idea of a truly open competition between Kepler, Larnach, and Gordon for that 3rd outfield starting spot after Buxton/Taylor and Gallo (assuming Kirilloff plays 1B). I just don't think that's what will happen. While there should be a built-in bias towards playing Gordon in LF since he was the most productive of that group last season, I think Rocco's built-in bias will be to play Kepler unless he fails in a big way. That leaves that both Larnach and Gordon fighting for occasional outfield fill in and DH at bats because Michael Taylor is going to play CF when Buxton is the DH or doesn't play. That's just no way to develop younger players. That also leaves us with a good field, poor hit corner outfielder on a team that needs help offensively. Are Gordon or Larnach necessarily going to provide more than Kepler's .225 with occasional power? We won't know that unless they get a chance to play (although Gordon was a lot better than that last year). Yes, Kepler is better with the glove but now that we have Gallo so we have a strong defensive RF. What we need is a bat for the LF spot. Frankly, if we decide to keep Kepler there probably isn't any room for Larnach on the roster in a role that makes sense. It makes no sense to keep him or Gordon as the 26th man getting 10 – 15 plate appearances a week. That one remaining spot should go to someone who is either is a glove 1st utility infielder like Willie Castro or a RH hitting outfielder who excels against LH pitching. Gordon has no options so he'll make the team. Injuries can obviously change everything but as it stands now I think Larnach is a likely odd man out and is probably better served by either going to AAA and waiting for a injury based chance or being traded to another organization. And to be fair, the former may in fact be the revised plan now that Kepler didn't get us much on the trade market: play Kepler in the hope that he either markedly improves with the shift ban and/or becomes tradable at midseason and play Larnach every day at AAA while he waits for his chance. It's not the plan I would use but I do understand that kind of plan.

Agreed. Ober should be the #5 starter for the Twins or the #1 starter for the Saints.

Oh, the humanity! Looks like the classic thing a team would say when they would like to trade a guy and can't get enough value on the market. "We like him and adds value to us". My bet is that they tried to trade him, couldn't get much for him, and have decided to wait and see if the market comes to them through an injury or another team striking out in free agency. We didn't sign Gallo to have him play LF or 1B and then sign Taylor to be the backup CF all so we could put Kirilloff, Gordon and/or Larnach on the bench. We signed them because we thought we cold trade Kepler for MLB value. It looks like we can't get that value so far, so plan B is to use him as part of an OF/1B group and as a backstop in case Kirilloff can't go. The real issue if he stays is whether we play him at the expense of a Larncah, Gordon and/or Kirilloff. We know what Max is - very meh. Are those three better? Gordon was last year by a pretty wide margin, but that's one year. Who knows on Larnach or Kirilloff? One thing we do know is that we won't know on any of those 3 if they don't get to play. And if Kepler stays and Rocco plays him everyday like he has in the past at least 1 or 2 of them won't get to play much. That's my response to those of you who say "we have room, why not keep him", This isn't a cost free decision, there is a real opportunity cost to keeping Kepler on the roster and using thim the way Rocco has in the past. Doing that moves back the development of Larnach and Gordon for yet another year. To me, that's potentially problematic because this team wasn't good enough last year to contend and one of the big problems was the offense, We have to get better and getting someone better than Kepler to play every day in the outfield is an obvious way for us to get better offensive production. We lose that opportunity if we keep him. I'm not saying just give him away, but we should seriously be trying to trade him. My prediction is we do we eventually do so.

Well said. Let's accept Gallo for what he is when he's on - a high strikeout power hitter who will have a good to great OPS because he walks a lot, good fielding OF, runs well. There's room for a guy like that on this team. Not hitting in the 2-5 holes, but 6 or 7. If the last year is what he is, then we cut bait.

I think we'll find out a lot about how Kirilloff is viewed by whether or not we trade Kepler. If they think that Kirilloff is ready to go, it makes a lot sense to trade Kepler if we can get value even in the form of prospects. If not, then I think you probably keep Kepler around to play RF while Gallo plays 1B. I think they're committed to Miranda as a 3B for now so there really isn't another 1B on the roster. So if Kepler is still around come March 30, I think that tells us that they aren't sure about Kirilloff and/or there's no market for Kepler.

Lunch it is. Ciao, baby.

Interesting idea. Here's the question - When does Davis play? We have Vasquez for 3 years and Jeffers isn't a free agent until 2027 so we have him for 4 years. I know we have no depth in AAA but I'm not in favor of trading two guys who have at least some upside (Varland as maybe a #3/4 SP, and Walner as a starting OF) for depth. Would you follow up that trade by trading Jeffers?

I agree with your idea of putting the top 3 hitters in the 1-3 spots and who those 3 are. Our only difference is I do think there is some value to leading off with the player more likely to see more pitches, run more, and strike out less. Right now to me that isn't Buxton. I would go Polanco, Correa, and the Buxton because Buxton doesn't see a lot of pitches and strikes out too much. We are pretty close and, as they say, reasonable minds can differ.

I like the idea of trading for Bryan Reynolds. I understand that the Pirates aren't motivated to trade him but would consider a trade for pitching. Here's my thinking - Pirates get Larnach (replacement OF for Reynolds with upside), Ober (proven #3/4 SP potential), Raya (SP prospect with potential), and Salas (top 100 SS with potential). Would substitute SWR for Salas but Salas is more valuable. Twins get Reynolds, arb eligible in 2024, free agent in 2026 so we have him for at least 3 years. On the pitching front, there isn't a reliever worth it to me IF we can sign either Fulmer or Chafin. I would rather go that route. Would consider trading Kepler to the Dodgers or Cardinals for pitching prospects. Would rather trade him there than to the Yankees. No reason to help a potential post season competitor; trade Kepler to an NL team. Picked the dodgers and Cardinals because they both have needs in the OF and decent systems. Would love to trade Kepler and a prospect to Cardinals for Woodford but I suspect Woodford is not available.

I don't like Kepler as a leadoff hitter at all. His OBP was .318 last year, .317 career, and he doesn't make up for that low number with power - .348 SLG last year, .427 career and the career number includes 2019 when his slugging % was .519. That is very unlikely to ever happen again. Like the guy, can see a Buxton-Kepler-Gallo OF as great defensively but let's face facts - Kepler can't hit. 2022: .227/.318/.348 (.666); career .227/.317/.427 (.744). He's 30 so that performance isn't likely to improve, it's likely to degrade. Kepler is not a guy you want having the most ABs on the team. That's a guy that hits in the 8 or 9 hole if he starts at all. He's much better suited to the 4th OF or a platoon role.

Kepler's average is highly unlikely to benefit by 30 points with the shift ban. The Athletic did an article on the effect of the shift and its impact on particular players using Statcast and other data. Kepler was not one of the players likely to heavily benefit, those were Corey Seager and Freddie Freeman types. You know, guys that hit the ball hard into the shift. Conversely, Kepler in 2022 had an average exit velocity (51st percentile), average hard hit rate (49th percentile) and a below average barrel rate (45th percentile). Max's problem isn't so much where he hits them as it is how hard he hits them - lot's of pop ups and soft ground balls. Removing the shift won't help either of those issues. I can't find the Athletic article but I recall that Max should get and extra 6-10 hits a year. Spread out over 525-550 ABS (standard for an everyday player), that's somewhere between 8 and 15 points of batting average, meaning Max might hit .235-.242 instead of his usual about .227. Also, these are by definition ground ball and shorter line drive hits, i.e., singles, so it won't improve his slugging percentage much or help him drive in a lot more runs. You know who might benefit a lot from banning the shift, at least when he doesn't strike out? Joey Gallo. His average exit velocity is in the 63rd percentile, his average hard hit rate is in the 94th percentile, and his average barrel rate is in the 98th percentile. Maybe the Front Office really does have a plan . . .

I don't see Buxton as a leadoff hitter for those of you putting him there. He has morphed into a power hitter who doesn't walk a lot and whom I think will NOT be asked to steal bases because of the injury risk. Buxton hits in the 3 spot. Correa hits 2, and Miranda and Kirilloff hit 4 and 5 in either order depending on a RH or LH starter. I'd love to hit Polanco 6, Gallo 7, DH 8 (probably Larnach), and C 9 but that leaves Gordon or Kepler to lead off. Gordon maybe, Kepler absolutely not. More likely is Polanco leading off with Gallo 6, Gordon/Kepler 7, DH 8, and C 9.

We're close to a contender. We still need a middle of the order bat and another quality reliever. How do we do this? Here's a radical plan. Four simple steps: 1. Trade Larnach, Ober, and either Salas or Emmanuel Rodriquez to the Pirates for Bryan Reynolds. Add in Martin or Reyes if you have to but then Pittsburg throws in a real A or A+ ball pitching or catching prospect, not filler, especially if you add in Reyes. Reynolds goes to LF every day, hits 3 in the order. The trade for Lopez and the emergence of SWR and Varland allows you to do this. 2. Sign Chafin if you can. If not, sign Fulmer. Bullpen done. 3. Trade Kepler for prospects, AA or lower and prioritize pitching or catching. Target the Yankees, Dodgers, or Cardinals as partners. They all need OFs now to better contend and have realistic hopes to contend. All 3 have decent or better systems. 4. Extend two of Mahle, Lopez, Maeda and Gray to ensure rotation stability. I vote for Lopez and Mahle if they are healthy. Also ok with Gray. Roster is now complete. The OF is Buxton, Gallo, and Reynolds, backed up by Taylor and Gordon. Starting IF is Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, and Miranda, backed up by Farmer and Gordon. Catchers are Vasquez and Jeffers, Find another UTL for the last spot, maybe Willi Castro to start off with, or a 3rd Catcher. Don't sign a RH 1B/DH only type; get someone versatile. This is a placeholder for Lewis or Lee. Rotation is P Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle and Maeda, with Varland, SWR, Balazovic, and Dobnak in the Saints rotation. BP is Duran, J Lopez, Jax, Chafin/Fulmer, Theilbar, Pagan, Moran, and Alcala, with Coloumbe, Stashak, Sands, and Megill at AAA for fill in duty or as a replacement if someone struggles. Batting order is Polanco, Correa, Reynolds, Buxton, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gallo, Vasquez/Jeffers, Gordon (as DH). This adds a bat for the middle of the order (albeit at a high cost), strengthens the bullpen, and still leaves us with a solid rotation with some depth. Big bet on Kirilloff but 1B could be Miranda with Farmer/Gordon/Lewis/Lee at 3B if Kirilloff doesn't hit or can't stay healthy. What do you guys think?

Here's a radical plan. Four simple steps: 1. Trade Larnach, Ober, and either Salas or Emmanuel Rodriquez to the Pirates for Bryan Reynolds. Add in Martin or Reyes if you have to but then Pittsburg throws in a real A or A+ ball pitching or catching prospect, not filler, especially if you add in Reyes. Reynolds goes to LF every day, hits 3 in the order. The trade for Lopez and the emergence of SWR and Varland allows you to do this. 2. Sign Chafin if you can. If not, sign Fulmer. Bullpen done. 3. Trade Kepler for prospects, AA or lower. Target the Yankees, Dodgers, or Cardinals as partners. They all need OFs now to contend better and have decent systems. 4. Extend two of Mahle, Lopez, Maeda and Gray to ensure rotation stability. I vote for Lopez and Mahle if they are healthy. Also ok with Gray. Roster is now complete. The OF is Buxton, Gallo, and Reynolds, backed up by Taylor and Gordon. Starting IF is Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, and Miranda, backed up by Farmer and Gordon. Catchers are Vasquez and Jeffers, Find another UTL for the last spot, maybe Willi Castro to start off with, or a 3rd Catcher. Don't sign a RH 1B/DH only type; get someone versatile. This is a placeholder for Lewis or Lee. Rotation is P Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle and Maeda, with Varland, SWR, Balazovic, and Dobnak the Saints rotation. BP is Duran, J Lopez, Jax, Chafin/Fulmer, Theilbar, Pagan, Moran, and Alcala, with Coloumbe, Stashak, and Megill at AAA for fill in duty or as a replacement if someone struggles. Batting order is Polanco, Correa, Reynolds, Buxton, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gallo, Vasquez/Jeffers, Gordon (as DH). This adds a bat for the middle of the order (albeit at a high cost), strengthens the bullpen, and still leaves us with a solid rotation with some depth. Big bet on Kirilloff but 1B could be Miranda with Farmer/Gordon/Lewis/Lee at 3B if Kirilloff doesn't hit or can't stay healthy. What do you guys think?

This. Polanco, Correa, Buxton, Miranda, and either Kirilloff or Larnach should be the top 5 hitters in the lineup, the last 3 in whatever order works (I actually prefer Kirilloff 3, Buxton 4 and Miranda 5). If Miranda is 5, Gallo is 6, LF is 7 (Larnach, Farmer or Kepler), Vasquez 8, and Gordon 9.

This is the conundrum, made even bigger by the presence of Larnach. No problem with keeping Kepler IF he's the 4th OF/defensive sub, hitting 7th or lower when he plays. The problem is that Rocco has been not only playing him every day, he often hits him in the top 6. The issue isn't that Kepler is a bad player. He's not; he's an above average fielder with a below average bat playing a premium offensive position. In other words, he's a below average RF overall. Conversely, Gordon outplayed him last year overall and Larnach has shown real promise. Keeping Kepler and playing him the way Rocco does creates a real lost opportunity cost by not giving that playing time and at bats to a guy who played better last year (Gordon) and a guy who has flashed a much higher upside (Laranch). Why on earth would we do that IF WE ARE TRYING TO GET BETTER as a Team? I want this team to contend THIS YEAR and I think we are close to that mark. The missing links include a better hitting OF than Kepler. I don't dislike the guy and would be fine with him playing 2-3 games a week against RH pitching but you just KNOW that Rocco won't do that. It's time to move on and I think a trade is the only way we can do that.

I don't like Buxton leading off, especially since I don't think they are going to want him stealing bases. Also, he had a .306 OBP, whereas Correa was at .366 and Polanco at .346. One of those 2 should be the normal leadoff guy with the other in the #2 spot. Buxton is more o f a masher now and should hit 3 or 4 depending on the pitcher. I'm also going to assume that Kepler is traded and Gordon starts but if not, substitute Kepler for Gordon and switch Kepler to RF and Gallo to LF. Here's how I see it, assuming a RH starter: Polanco 2B Correa SS Buxton CF/DH Kirilloff 1B Miranda 3B Gallo RF Larnach DH/LF Vasquez C Gordon LF/CF/DH Against a LH starter, swap out Michael Taylor in CF for Gordon and move Buxton to DH. Sit either Kirilloff or Larnach with the one playing in LF, put in Farmer at 3B, and move Miranda to 1B. Against lefties: Polanco 2b Correa SS Buxton DH Miranda 1B Gallo RF Farmer 3B Vasquez C Kirilloff/Larnach LF Taylor CF Jeffers hits #7 or #8 when he plays. The best hitter against LH pitching plays against LH starters between Kirilloff, Larnach, and Gordon. We don't yet know the mystery 13th position player assuming Kepler is traded. If it's Willi Castro, he hits 9 when he plays. If it's someone like Gurriel, he plays DH against LH pitching and hits 5 with Gallo moving to 6 and Farmer to 7 (probably in LF), Kirilloff staying at 1B and hitting 8, and Gordon/Larnach on the bench with the other catcher.

Please dear God no with Kepler in the 4 spot. IF he's still a Twin, and I think that's big IF, he hits 8 or 9. He really should be the 4th OF but that's probably not in the cards. No way should he hit anywhere in the top 6. Great fielder, lousy hitter.

This is a tough one, and not for baseball reasons. I don’t think there’s any question that the Twins got the better side of the trade from a talent perspective. Pitching is worth more than hitting for average, and starting pitching is worth a lot more. The BTV ratings are very one sided the Twins way. Getting a solid #2 starter and the Marlins #5 prospect is a great return for a high average/OBP guy with no power, no defensive value, and bad knees. Still…. I liked the guy and I’m sorry to see him go. I was hoping they could get Lopez for Kepler and a prospect. Maybe now we trade Kepler for a RH hitting 1B or a solid reliever. I wish we could have kept Arraez but I do understand the trade.

Love the idea but you would have to add at least Larnach to Arraez and Kepler to get López and Luzardo, probably Larnach and a young pitcher like Reyna or Festa. Are you willing to pay that price? BTV says that’s the price to get those two pitchers.

This is the best rationale - why not see if he can get it back and besides, we don’t have anyone else at AAA on the way up to be blocked. I don’t know the minor league system well enough to know if the latter half of that is true. If it is, I guess why not? You have to have a quick finger on the trigger though. Give him 6-8 weeks to show something max.

I disagree. The trade candidate is Kepler. Kepler is what he is; an above average fielding corner OF with a below average bat for his position who doesn’t play CF. Gordon is a better hitting OF, 113 ops+ last season, who’s is just learning the OF. You would expect his fielding and base running to improve over time and he can and will play CF. Gordon us cheap and out of options. I think Gordon will be in the 2023 roster either as the starter in LF or as the 4th OF behind Buxton, Gallo and Larnach. Kepler is the best trade candidate as part of a package for pitching from the Marlins.

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Blayne Enlow passed through waivers and has been outrighted to AA. I thought he might be part of a trade package or get picked up by a lesser team. Guess the FO knew better than I or many of us here did. I don't like everything they do but you have to give them props when they take a calculated risk and it works out.

I really think much of this is pretty straightforward. Kepler is traded. Gordon is the starting LF either in a semi-platoon with a RH OF to be named (maybe Manicini? McCutchen just signed with the Pirates) or with Celestino, with Gordon getting the bulk of the ABs. I vote for the OFTBN with Celestino playing everyday in CF at AAA. Gordon and Gallo are the back up CFs unless (or perhaps until) Buxton has a major injury and then maybe we call up Celestino from St. Paul. Laranch is the 4th OF playing 3-4 times a week when Buxton DHs and Gallo plays 1B and he DHs 1-2 games a week. The harder part is Kirilloff. He's coming off a surgery from which we just have no previous MLB track record of success or non-success. He is a complete crapshoot at this point. I think the plan has to be to start him out in AAA as either the LF or 1B, play him every day if the wrist holds up and see what he can do. He more than anyone needs to re-prove himself at the AAA level on two levels - (1) that he can still hit after the surgery, and (2) that his wrist will hold up over the long term, not just the short term. We cannot afford to give him a starting MLB spot, watch him hit for a month, and then watch him fall off the table like he did before. If he hits for the first 6-8 weeks there is likely to be a place for him in the Bigs in the OF or at 1B replacing a player who is ineffective or injured. If not, he waits and we get more data on whether he can actually hold up over the course of a long season. I know this sounds harsh but we cannot go into the season counting on Kiriloff to be an asset to the Twins. It's gravy if he becomes that asset, but we have to plan as though he will not provide a meaningful contribution in 2023 and may not ever be able to do so.