LA VIkes Fan

I'm not sure that's the right way to look at things with Gordon. He was not good before 2022. In 2022, he provided 1.7 WAR and a 113 OPS+, all while learning a new position in the OF. His fielding isn't as good as Kepler's yet but he's very athletic and he's only just turned 27. There is at least the potential, and I would say a likelihood, that his defense will improve and his WAR will go up IF he hits like he did in 2022. He also can play CF at a baseline level and appears willing to try to get better. He has speed that needs to be tamed to make him a better baserunner, something now more valuable as the rules change to encourage stolen bases. Solid recent performance with room to grow. By contrast, Kepler is on the wrong side of 30, most likely on downhill slope now or will be in a year or two. He is what he is. 93 OPS+ last year, career 101+. Keeping in mind that OPS+ is a measurement that includes everybody - even SS, 2B and C who don't hit like other positions - he is very much a below average hitter for a corner OF and may now be a below average hitter for any spot. He is very strong defensively in RF. Yet for some reason it has ben said that he doesn't want to play CF even as Buxton's backup. ! don't know if that's true but I can't help but notice he almost never goes to CF. I can see an argument that the two are almost identical players with one better defensively and one better offensively. I can even see an argument that maybe Gordon's 2022 will be his high water mark and he'll never hit that way again. Still, it's hard to see an argument where the Twins' medium to long term benefit is served by playing Kepler every day while benching, demoting or trading Gordon. Dingo so would be to sacrifice possible (likely?) growth/improvement for a hoped for slight current performance uptick in my view. We have too many LH hitting corner OFs. One or two need to go. My view is you keep Gordon first. Next, if you think Larnach is healthy, keep Larnach if you can find room. You keep both over Kepler.

This. I strongly disagree with the idea that now that we have Farmer, there is only room for one of Farmer or Gordon on the roster. I think Gordon is now an OF who can play CF as a reserve and who can play in the IF , including SS, if necessary. He versatile, of starting MLB quality if he can repeat last year, and he stays. The OFs on the bubble are Kepler (agree will be traded) and Larnach, Celestino and Wallner. Only one of those last three can stay at best and that's IF Kepler is traded. I think the better play is to sign a RH hitting OF to replace Garlick and platoon with Gordon in LF/DH/1B for this year (Mancini maybe?) and make those latter 3 the starting AAA OF in LF, CF, and RF respectively. Alternatively, we can put Larnach or Wallner is a trade package for a quality SP. Kepler alone won't get us close to that. .

Well played.

In the words of Hedley Lamarr as he addressed the gang of cut throats, murderers, etc. about to attack Rock Ridge - "Men, you are about to embark on a great crusade to stamp out rampant decency in the west. Now you men will only be risking your lives, Whilst I will be risking an almost certain Academy Award nomination for best supporting actor. " I say we sign him if only for stirring pre-game speeches.

Well, with Garlick being DFA'd today, I wonder if that puts Celestino on the opening day roster for now. I understand that he can play CF (sort of), but I think that Gordon is almost as good so I don't think one keeps Celestino around just for that reason. He could really use a full year's worth of the bats in AAA to improve as a player. As the eternal optimist, I'm hoping that the Garlick DFA signals they have either a trade or potential free-agent deal coming for a right-handed hitting outfielder. Combined with a Kepler trade, hopefully as part of the package to Miami for a pitcher, that would really improve the roster. You essentially have a starting outfield of Buxton, Gallo, and some combination every day of Larnach, Gordon and this new RH hitter. Plenty of at bats to go around there particularly when you realize the DH slot is open for 1 of the outfielders not being used or or whoever of the Miranda/Arraez/Kirilloff group is not playing 1B or 3B that day. So to me, the OF roster on opening day is Buxton, Gallo, Gordon, Larnach, and a new RH hitting OF. Unless there's a trade of Kepler - and I think there will be - the real issue is Kepler vs. Larnach on the roster. For a lot of reasons, I think Larnach is the call and Kepler should be traded even if it is for solid prospects rather than MLB pitching. . Larnach needs MLB ABs, not AAA ABs, at this point he appears to be a better hitter than Kepler when he isn't injured, and he certainly has a higher potential ceiling.

I would like to see an upgrade from Garlick but I don't think that Celestino is necessarily that upgrade. I know he can play CF (sort of), but I think that Gordon is almost as good so I don't think one keeps Celestino around just for that reason. He could really use a full year's worth of the bats in AAA to improve as a player. As the eternal optimist, I'm hoping that the signals they have either a trade or potential free-agent deal coming for a right-handed hitting outfielder. Combined with a Kepler trade, hopefully as part of the package to Miami for a pitcher, that would really improve the roster. You essentially have a starting outfield of Buxton, Gallo, and some combination every day of Larnach, Gordon and this new RH hitter. Plenty of at bats to go around there particularly when you realize the DH slot is open for 1 of the outfielders not being used or or whoever of the Miranda/Arraez/Kirilloff group is not playing 1B or 3B that day. So to me, the real issue is Kepler vs. Larnach on the roster. For a lot of reasons, I think Larnach is the call and Kepler should be traded. That's for another thread.

Disagree here. I think this makes it more likely they will deal Kepler. Going "all in" for this team means getting 3 things - (1) another #1 or #2 starter, (2) getting one more good to very good bullpen piece (Chafin or Fulmer come to mind), and (3) getting a big bat to hit #4 behind Arraez, Buxton and Correa. Gallo and Polanco are much more suited to hit #5 or #6 ahead or behind Miranda at the other and the LF or C at 7. Kepler fills none of those needs since he doesn't hit much but he can be a trade piece to accomplish need #1, he can be replaced by Gallo in RF, and LF can be filled internally by Larnach, Gordon, Kirilloff or Wallner. My wishful thinking scenario is the following: - Trade Kepler, Enlow and either Larnach or Wallner plus a MiLB prospect to Miami for Lopez, Luzardo, or Rogers. - Sign Chafin (or Fulmer) for 2 years. Move Maeda to the bullpen and sign him for another 2-3 years to deal with his contract structure that right now pays him a lot more as a starter than as a reliever. - Sign Trey Mancini or even our old friend Nelson Cruz to hit in the middle of the order. Wish there was someone better. 2023 is now looking a lot brighter!

This is unfreakingbeleivable! Great result. $33.33m a year for years aged 29-34, 17.5m a year for ages 35-39 IF he vests. Wow, what a good deal given the market. What's next, Vikings throw up four shutouts in a row and win the Super Bowl! Sorry, must have hit my head before I said that about the Vikings . . . Yes! Now let's make a deal to get Lopez, Luzardo, or Rogers from Miami, and sign either Fulmer or Chafin to augment the bullpen. It's a good offseason now, but That would be a great offseason.

It was reported this morning that the Marlins signed Johnny Cueto to a one year deal with a club option that guarantees him $8.5 million. Why do the Marlins need starting pitching? They need bats. Add in Enlow's DFA, which doesn't make a lot of sense unless he's going to be traded, and a thought emerges - are the Twins and Marlins about ready to do a deal with hitting going from the Twins for pitching from the Marlins? Maybe Kepler, Larnach, and Enlow for Lopez, Luzardo, or Rogers? Anyone hearing or reading anything?

Guys, he’s going to go to the Mets because he wants to go to a team that he thinks will compete for the World Series consistently over the life of his contract. The Mets are willing to spend the money to do that, the Twins aren’t. If the money is roughly the same, I think most of us would go for the team that has a better chance of being a winner. Right now, that’s the Mets.

I’m with Mike. Ryan is showing himself to be a solid, mid-rotation starter, a solid to very good #3. If he improves from there, that’s gravy because we never expected him to be more than that. Realistic expectations on the guy, let’s enjoy the probability of a long-term rotation guy. Very valuable stuff.

Maybe so, but they may have had to go in this order to get Ortega. How's this for a plan (trades vetted through BTV): (1) Trade Kepler, Larnach and DeAndrade to Miami for Luzardo or Lopez, alone or plus a non-40 man prospect. (2) Trade Enlow and Cole Sands to Mets for Guillorme. (3) Sign Mancini as a DH/IB/LF (2 yrs/20m). (4) Sign Kevin Pillar as a 4th/5th OF because he can play CF (1 yr/3m). Otherwise stick with Garlick and Gordon is the backup CF. (5) Sign Andrew Chafin (2yrs/18m) or Michael Fullmer ( 2yrs/6-8m) . Roster: 1b: Arraez/Kiriloff/Mancini 2B: Polanco SS: Guillorme/Farmer 3B: Miranda LF: Gordon/Mancini CF: Buxton RF: Gallo C: Vasquez/Jeffers DH: Arraez/Mancini/Guy taking a "half day off" UTL: Farmer 4th/5th OF: Pillar/Garlick SP: Gray, Lopez/Luzardo, Mahle, Ryan, Ober, Maeda Go with a 6 man rotation and expect 100-120+ pitches per start given the extra rest, Hope for 6-8 innings per start to avoid overtaxing a 7 amn bullpen. Or move Maeda to bullpen. BP: Duran, Lopex, Jax, Alcala, Theilbar, Chafin/Fullmer, Pagan/Moran/McGill/Coloumbe, Maeda if a 5 man rotation. AAA OF is Wallner, Celestino, Martin and Contreras. First 3 get 500 ABS in the minors unless needed for Twins due to injury. Whoever of the Pagan/Moran/McGill/Coloumbe group doesn't make team is in AAA as insurance. Thoughts?

That seems right to me. If I'm Pittsburg or KC or Detroit, why not give him a shot? That's why I wonder if this isn't part of a grander strategy that will let the Twins either pull him back or make him part of a trade. I just don't know the rules well enough to know if that's a realistic option.

It strikes me that the DFA for Enlow is a calculated move based on the idea that other teams will be hesitant to spend a 40 man spot on him when he wasn't very effective coming off of TJ Surgery last year. I do have one question. I understand that the DFA means we have to trade or waive Enlow in the next 7 days. Let's say we make a trade in those 7 days say, Kepler plus others on the 40 man to say, Miami, where we get less players for the 40 man then we give up and now have an open 40 man spot. Kepler and Larnach for Lopez, for example. Can we return Enlow to the 40 man in that spot? What if the trade doesn't become "official" until after he's claimed on waivers? How about if a spot opens up by moving a player to the 60 day IL? What if Enlow is going to be part of a trade that will go down in the next 7 days. Does the new team have to DFA him or do they just add him to their 40 man roster? Just curious. Just thinking out loud that this may be a move in conjunction with something else coming that would allow the Twins to pick up Ortega and later pull back Enlow because a spot is going to open up.

I don't think you and I are too far off. I agree that we're missing a RH middle of the order bat to hit 5 or 6 and could really use that kind of player. For me, adding that RH bat to mostly play a combination of DH and either 1B or LF works IF Kepler is traded. I want at least one OF position and half of the DH ABs open so Kirilloff, Larnach and Gordon can each be playing 5 days a week. I just don't see how we do that AND play Arraez, Kepler and Gallo 5 days a week. You have to think that Gallo has been promised an every day spot or he wouldn't have come to the Twins. Arraez is the defending batting champion and Kepler's defense is such that you have to think they are regulars going forward. We only have innings and ABs for these 6 guys at LF, RF, 1B, and DH. That's not enough for 6 players to play regularly, especially when they all hit left handed. I absolutely agree that adding a solid RH bat would help this lineup tremendously and could give us a few more wins. The problem is that I can't square that with getting enough innings and ABs for Gordon, Larnach, Kiriloff, and eventually Wallner, Lewis, Lee and Julien in 2023. I think the two ways to add the RH bat and create enough space without a tear down is either to trade Kepler to create an OF spot OR commit to playing Gordon 4-5 days a week at SS. Even then we're one starting spot short but that may be cured by injury or ineffectiveness. I think that there's a real choice here that we should make going into the season. One choice is to stay with what we have and add a RH bat. A few more wins, but not enough to contend in my view, and that choice would be made at the cost of needed development time for the guys mentioned above. My choice would be to trade Kepler to create room for those guys to play even at the cost of a few wins. IF we trade Kepler there potentially is room for a RH bat as long as he's willing to play part time, but not for a full time guy. For me, the most important value is getting ABs for this next wave in 2023.

This is the question - assuming McCutcheon could marginally raise the floor (a pretty big IF), should we try to get him? The answer depends on if we're possible contender where 2-3 wins could make the difference in making the playoffs or winning a series, or are we father away then that and thus should use this as a development year? I personally don't see a lot of upside to improving from 75-80 wins to 82-83 wins so we can say we're a contender. The mediocre middle is a bad place to be. Either try to contend or try to develop so you can contend sooner rather than later. Don't play for 3rd place instead of 4th. I'm the eternal optimist but I don't see this Twins team as a few wins away from contention. We have a solid rotation missing a true #1, a decent bullpen that could improve to solid if we sign a Fullmer type, average defense (above average OF with a below average IF), and a below average hitting lineup which lacks speed and is short on power. That's your current 2023 Twins. Sounds like 75-85 wins depending on where we fall on the bad vs. perfect health spectrum. My view is play the young(ish) guys like Larnach, Kirilloff, Gordon, Miranda, and Lewis when he's ready, plus Wallner and Lee in the second half. Don't sign a McCutcheon type to take away ABs unless you really think we can contend. I don't. In fact, I see the only way to contend being to play the young guys and hope they fulfill their promise quickly. Assuming health, get Miranda 600 plate appearances this year, 500+ for Gordon, Larnach and Kirilloff, and 250+ for Lewis, Lee and Wallner in the second half if you can. If possible and deserved by early performance, add Julien and Martin into the mix. Get 30 plus starts for Ryan and Ober, and 10-15 for Varland and SWR. Try to get Paddack back in the rotation for 8-10 starts after his TJ rehab. If that means trading vets at the deadline, moving Maeda to the BP, and/or living with a lesser defensive SS who hits while Farmer becomes the UTl who can play SS, do it. Most of these guys are 25 or 26, not 21 or 22. Play them and play them this year. Live with the consequences.

I'm with you Chief except that Celestino may develop into more than a "waste of space" in the future. He needs a full year or close to it in AAA playing CF every day. He turns 24 in a month and has spent the last year and a half trying to survive in the BIgs when he wasn't ready. He might be ready in 2024 or even September 2023 if he gets a year in AAA to refine his hit tool. Don't take him to the MLB roster. Gordon/Gallo can be the backup CF. Garlick? Just no, thank you. He's older, always injured, can't hit RH pitching at all, and is a below average fielder. His career OPS+ is even slightly below average against LH pitching. He's ok as a stash depth piece in AAA, not as a guy on the 26 man expecting to play semi-regularly. I hate to say this but he doesn't help short term much and has little value long term.

I agree with Riverbrian on the concept. We desperately need to deepen the lineup unless this year's plan is the hope that multiple inexperienced players will step up (Larnach, Kirilloff, Jeffers, Wallner) and/or continue up (Mirnda, Gordon). Lots of "ifs" there. We could really use a good professional RH hitter. The question to me is whether any of those 3 guys actually meets that definition. Pollack is on the downslope, McCutcheon is farther down that slope, and Mancini is a wild card after his huge fade last year. I thought about Nelson Cruz but he fell off the table last year and will be 43 in July. I guess Mancini is he best veteran option out there but he scares me a little. I just don't see trading Kepler as getting us much more than a decent MLB reliever or a decent prospect or two so that isn't the short term answer for the lineup either. I'm almost ready to say that we should just go ahead and run with what we have and call 2023 a development year. Hope for 85 wins, be ok with 80 wins, be excited about more than 85, and call for heads to roll with less than 80. It's not what I was hoping for a couple of months ago but maybe ok.

I like and agree with the list. I'm one of the posters that has said that Gordon should be penciled in as an every day LF or at least in a platoon with a RH hitter. Right now that's Garlick but I still hold out hope we can find somebody better, even Trey Mancini. Lately though, I've come around to the idea that we should give Gordon a real chance to show us whether he can be a MLB Shortstop. If 2022 was a fair indication of how he can hit, he would be a huge asset as a Shortstop if he can field the position at an average or better level. We have Spring Training and the first half of the 2023 season to find out if he can field at that level. Farmer was signed as a utility player, not as an everyday shortstop. I would love to see them play Gordon at Shortstop in the Spring Training and unless he is terrible, I'd love to see them play him at SS at least in a platoon with Farmer so he gets 4 games a week there. Let's find out if Gordon can play the position and give ourselves as many alternatives as possible when Lewis comes back.

I'm with you on the concept, just slightly different on the details. Let's be honest, the chances of improving the club through FAs is gone other than a decent middle relief option like Fullmer. Trades tend to be more of a reshuffling than an addition unless we trade prospects for MLB quality and we traded most of those prospects last year. Unless we can trade Kepler plus prospects outside of our top 10 for a starter like Lopez or Luzardo (unlikely) or Kepler for quality MLB relief or decent prospects (also unlikely) I'm generally not in favor of any of the trades I hear rumored. The rotation is solid, bullpen is close to solid, and the lineup is a question mark. That's who we are and who we're likely to be. I say play the younger guys and play them now. These players aren't 22 or 23, they're 25 and 26. They need to play to see if they are MLB worthy guys. Play them, play them 5 days a week, and live with the results for at least the first half of the year. The one person missing from your list is Gordon. I think he may be a MLB starting player in LF, and has a chance to be a good bat, decent glove SS or 2B. I would like to see him get a real run at SS in spring training, start the season playing there at least in a platoon with Farmer (and maybe even 5 days a week), and see if he can handle the position and still hit like last year. He can move aside for Lewis in the second half if he can't handle the spot. If he can and does, Lewis can move to LF. Having too many good young players is a good thing and it's far too early to pick winners from guys who haven't shown quality over an extended sample. Let's make them earn it and give them a chance to do so. Overall though, I agree. Barring injury, I'd love to see Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda and Gordon get 500 ABs this year, Lewis get 300 (only because of injury rehab time), and Lee and Julien and maybe Martin getting 200-250. I also want to see Ryan and Ober get at least 25 starts apiece, with Varland and SWR getting 10-15 each. It may not be pretty all the time but it would be fun to watch.

This is a very interesting idea. With those 3 OFs as the "every day" starters, we have 2 guys that can fill in for Buxton when he is off or DHing and not on the IL. Celestino can go to AAA where he develops more and is available if we need a long term CF due to a Buxton injury and if the team isn't comfortable with Gordon as that replacement CF. Larnach goes to AAA or is the 5th OF, same for Garlick. 1B becomes Kirilloff's home IF he's healthy. IF not, Arraez goes there instead of DH/UTL. Gordon is also a UTL with some time at SS to see if he can play there. The starters are Arraez, Polanco, Buxton, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gallo, Vasquez, Kepler, Farmer, hitting in that basic order. It is too left handed so one would like to see a RH hitting OF/DH type better than Garlick. Gordon is super utility who plays SS and OF a t least 2 days a week each, bench is Gordon, Jeffers, a utility IF, and for now Garlick (there has got to be someone better). Not ideal, but still workable and gives MLB development time to Miranda and Kirilloff. If Kirilloff can't go, Larnach plays first or LF with Gallo moving to 1B. Larnach and Celestino develop in AAA and move up when the inevitable injuries hit the team. Look, this isn't ideal but right now it may be the best option we have. Trade Kepler and Larnach takes his spot. Better for development, but could be worse for 2023. Means to me that Kepler needs to fetch an MLB level reliever or a 10-20 type pitching prospect or we keep him. Tough choice.

Kirilloff has the tools but he hasn't been able to get his body to cooperate. Until he does for a season or two, not a week or a month or two, he's a complete crapshoot. It would be a great bonus if the latest surgery worked and he was able to be all his talent allows him to be. Right now, that would be an unexpected but very pleasant surprise. He just had very invasive surgery to shave down a bone. The recovery time and level is totally uncertain IF he recovers enough to play at the MLB level at all. The odds are more likely than not that he won't. Kirilloff is just not a player the team can build around with this history. The Twins should not be moving forward planning for him to fill a position in 2023. If he can and does, what a great gift. Odds of that are not very high. Sad, but true.

Interesting take. No one of us will ever know the facts. I live in LA and the Dodgers can't keep him. He's unliked by his teammates and vilified in the press. He's toxic here. I don't want to pick him up. There's just too much baggage for a guy who is probably a solid #2, not an ace or even a solid #1, and who seems to attract negative publicity wherever he goes. He simply isn't worth the risks.

I live in LA. I would be very surprised if Bauer plays for the Dodgers ever again. Most likely will be unceremoniously released. Pretty much hated in the clubhouse here, heard the same things about him in Cleveland. I know he can pitch but the Twins aren't one guy away from the World Series. PIus, he hasn't pitched in 2 years. Let's just stay away.

Do everything except keep Polanco and Gray (midseason trade pieces if we flop)ND GRAY ( and have Arraez be a DH/1B/2B guy. Send Wallner to AAA and he'll be up soon enough as an injury replacement. It is far from certain Kirilloff will be able to play and Larnach has had season ending injuries 2 years in a row.